'01 Til Now, With Dale Earnhardt...

This week marks 12 years since the 2001 Daytona 500 which ended in the tragic death of NASCAR great Dale Earnhardt.  In the wake of Earnhardt's death, NASCAR embarked on the largest safety renovation in its history, resulting in the safety of the sport in 2013.  After NASCAR celebrated the coming Daytona 500 with a remebrance of Dale Earnhardt, one must think about what might have been.

How would the sport have progressed in the past 12 years had Earnhardt not died?  Would safety measures have been made and what other differences would their be?  Lets take a look back at how the past 12 years would have been with Dale Earnhardt around.

Imagine the victory lane celebration February 18, 2001 when Michael Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Dale Earnhardt finished 1, 2, 3.  Earnhardt now has an established NASCAR Cup Series team, capable of winning and competing each week.  He just finished second in the points in 2000 and is on the upswing again in his career.  After winning a couple races in 2001 he finishes a close second to Jeff Gordon in the 2001 Cup Championship.

In the next couple of years, driver injuries and another driver death add to the recent deaths of Kenny Irwin and Adam Petty to force NASCAR into further safety measures.  Only a handful of drivers still use open-faced helmets, but all drivers use some form of head and neck restraining device.  NASCAR is also developing safety measure in the cars to absorb more force on impact.

After finishing 5th in the 2002 Cup Series Championship points, Dale Earnhardt decides to retire after the 2003 season.  Dale Jr. finished the 2002 season 3rd in points propelling him to a Championship challenge in 2003.  New talk by NASCAR about a wider, taller, safer car with identical front ends for all manufacturers is met by contention from NASCAR veterans.  NASCAR adapts the front ends to incorporate more brand identity.

In 2004 Dale Earnhardt joins Darrell Waltrip in the broadcasting booth for a few races to add commentary, but decides against a long term contract citing too much hot air in the booth coming from Waltrip as a reason to stay on pit road.  With late season coaching from his father, Dale Jr. wins the 2004 Championship, giving DEI its first Championship and the Earnhardt family its eighth. 

Over the next few years NASCAR sees many changes amongst teams.  There is an addition of a 4th DEI team, as Earnhardt has recruited Tony Stewart away from Joe Gibbs Racing, making the DEI stable every bit as strong as NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports.  Hendrick, losing hardheaded driver Kyle Busch to JGR, adds newcomer Juan Pablo Montoya from F1 in a single car partnership with Chip Ganassi and adds Mark Martin from Jack Roush's stable, outbidding startup owner Ginn Racing.

Heading into the current decade, NASCAR has now begun to eclipse the NFL in total market share, and continues to expand into new markets, despite a steep downturn in the economy.  However, fans still appreciate NASCAR's roots, such as its annual Labor Day weekend at the Southern 500 at Darlington, South Carolina.

No, that is not how things turned out, and probably light years from how it may have happened, but one could definitely see how the sport would have been different had the '01 500 ended differently.  Dale Earnhardt was a huge part of the sport's success, not always perfect, but always a part of the conversation.  No doubt NASCAR would be different, but one can only speculate in what ways.

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Dale Jr. Reaches New Level Of Consistency

All the speculators thought this weekend was the week.  Hendrick was to get their 200th win and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was to break his losing streak and make all of Junior Nation happy once again.  Sometimes things just don't work out the way you plan.  However, Dale Jr. can be thrilled with his 9th place finish for another reason!

Dale Earnhardt Jr's top 10 finish at Talladega marked his 8th in the first 10 races of this season which is the first time he has ever surpassed 7 top 10's to begin a season.  Junior has reached 7/10 three other times (2003, 2004, and 2008). 

An 80% top ten mark to start the NASCAR season has been reached 47 times in the Cup Era (since 1975), and has been accomplished by that year's champion 13 times out of 36 years.  However, that has not been accomplished since NASCAR went to the Chase format.  In fact, the last time it happened was one year prior when Matt Kenseth won the championship with only 1 win.

Dale Earnhardt started the season with 8 top tens in 7 of his seasons, including 6 championship years.  The next driver on the list was Darrell Waltrip, who made that mark 6 times, including twice of those being 9 top 10's out of 10 races.  Out of the other NASCAR greats, Terry Labonte did it 5 times, Jeff Gordon 3, Bobby Allison 3, Cale Yarborough 2, and Richard Petty 2 times.

Some notable drivers not on that list were Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and other current top drivers.  The best knowledge to take away from that fact is that these racers have been excellent in the past 8 years at turning it on from the summer on, especially during the Chase.  This has been an issue for Junior in the past as even though he has won at some Chase races, such as Talladega and Phoenix, he has not been able to put together 10 great races at the end of the season as he has now at the beginning.

In the mean time, Earnhardt Jr. and the 88 team as a whole are enjoying a building of momentum including 6 straight top ten finishes.  They are listed as the best team over the past 6 races, Junior has one of the highest average driver ratings he has had in his career, and people are looking for them to win week in and week out.  The most important thing driver 88 can do now is prove those people right...

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Can Kyle Busch Focus?

Over the last 10 years, no drivers have been compared to the late Dale Earnhardt more than Kyle Busch with exception of Dale Jr. and possibly Tony Stewart.  Kyle Busch has been known for his smirky grins, his dented front bumper, and his ability to let his temper both push him to win and at times push him to be called on the carpet by NASCAR.  There is probably no closer copy of Dale Earnhardt's early years in NASCAR.

Long before the black #3 had millions of fans and won 6 championships in 9 years, Dale Earnhardt drove a pink #2 followed by the yellow #3 Wrangler car.  Those cars and Earnhardt's long hair and bushy mustache were synonymous with on-track beating and banging.  Yes Earnhardt won the championship in 1980, his second year, but he did not produce consistent domination until he developed his ability for long term focus. 

There is no worker in the garage, fan in the stands, or commentator on Sunday afternoons that doubts Kyle Busch's ability for short term focus.  Every driver in NASCAR knows exactly how far Busch will go if he ends up on their rear bumper with 10 to go.  But what Kyle Busch has lacked is the ability turn winning races into winning Sprint Cups.

Part of what has been in Kyle's way of winning Cups is the fact that the season is long.  Thirty years ago when Dale Earnhardt was wrecking Waltrip and Labonte the season was 29 or 30 races long.  Today Busch is driving in 36 Sprint Cup races per season.  That is, when he can control himself.  Sure that is only 6 more races, you may say, but that is a month and a half more of a season.  Multiply on top of that the fact that Busch has been racing Nationwide races and truck series races and managing his own truck series team.  No wonder that by mid October he may not remember exactly where NASCAR's line is.  I'm sure they are more than happy to point it out for him when needed.

Some of that packed schedule may be thinned for the 2012 season.  Word out this week is that Busch will possibly run a small Nationwide schedule with little to no truck series races.  Although Busch would rather be behind the wheel than anywhere else, perhaps given some time to sit and watch could do him good, especially as the season progresses.

In the past 4 years Kyle Busch has had one of the best winning totals in NASCAR, 19 wins, just two behind Jimmie Johnson.  However, in those years when he should have contended and possibly won championships, Busch had zero wins in the final 12 races of the year.  Actually, Kyle Busch has only one Chase win in his career and that was in 2005.  Also, in 2008 when Busch dominated victory lane with 8 wins, he had no wins in the final 14 races.  All of the 8 wins came in the first 22 races.  Yes, 8 out of 22 is domination, but 0 for 14 allows championships to slip away, especially in the Chase format.

Will a thinning of his itinerary and a tight grip on the reigns by Joe and J.D. Gibbs propel Busch to contend and perhaps win the championship in 2012 or beyond?  Time will tell, but I don't foresee him wrecking any cars under caution or spinning any unmanned cars on pit road during the 2012 season.  That, of course, doesn't mean he can't "rattle their cage" every now and then...

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Return To Coke 600 Victory Lane Close For Roush

From 1999 to 2002, no Sprint Cup owner visited victory lane after the Coke 600 other than Jack Roush. During those four races, Roush drivers Burton, Kenseth, and Martin were strong. From 1998 to 2002 there were 25 NASCAR races at LMS, including Nationwide Series Races, Sprint Cup Races, and All Star Races; Roush drivers won 12 of those races. In comparison, Hendrick drivers won 4.

Some of that same strength was on display this past Saturday night in the All Star Race in which Carl Edwards dominated. Throughout each stage of the race, there was only one car that remained consistently up front. By the end of the race, it was Edwards’ to lose. Yes there was some competition, but nobody had the car to beat him with; he won segments 2, 3 and 4. The only other driver to win a segment was his teammate Greg Biffle.

Besides Edwards and Biffle, the other Roush drivers had strong cars as well. Matt Kenseth showed some horsepower often during the race and finished sixth, one spot behind Greg Biffle. Even the weakest team from the Roush stable had a good run. David Ragan won the Sprint Showdown, passing Brad Keselowski to get the first transfer spot into the Sprint All Star Race.

Roush’s only worry going into the 600 mile race on Sunday is that he doesn’t just need fast horses Sunday night; he needs motors that will last 600 miles. The engine setup for a 150 mile race is much different than that of a race four times as long. Although Roush has not had the blown engines that Joe Gibbs Racing has had in 2011, they haven’t been the most consistent. To give one or more of his drivers a good chance to win this week, Roush will have to balance power with endurance.

Another interesting stat is that Hendrick Motorsports has more Coke 600 wins than any other organization, including Petty Motorsports, with 9 wins. Their winners include Darrell Waltrip, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Casey Mears.

Battling the Roush drivers this week will, no doubt, be Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Both showed some muscle at certain points in Saturday’s race, but struggled with ill-handling cars at times. Each of these champions have won the 600 mile race 3 times, and are known for saving their cars and being able to bring their best at the end of a long race. Look for these two to challenge early, but definitely get strong as the lights warm up at Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

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Racing Into The All-Star Race New Territory For Earnhardt Jr.

In a few days, two weeks of racing will begin at the Lowe’s Motor Speedway in Charlotte, North Carolina. NASCAR’s Cup teams will be returning to racing at their home track (home track for most, at least) for both the Sprint All-Star Race and the Coca-Cola 600 the following weekend.

The All-Star race at Charlotte has been an event marked by wild passes, hard wrecks, and aggressive racing for 26 years and this Saturday will be held once again. It began in 1985 as “The Winston”, named for the series sponsor at the time, and quickly became a hit with NASCAR fans and drivers alike. The short length and aggressive racing being much like the feature races at local tracks, the all-star event was soon a staple in the NASCAR Cup Series season.

The storied race has had many winners, beginning with Darrell Waltrip in 1985. There was much history for the initial race, which was not preceded that year by a qualifying race for those who did not automatically qualify, like there will be this week. The pole sitter for the Winston was Terry Labonte and the race was called by Mike Joy, and the color commentator was Neil Bonnett. The race this week will be called by Mike Joy and one of the color commentators will be Darrell Waltrip. Familiar territory for both, I am sure.

One thing that will not be familiar, since 2000 at least, is that Dale Earnhardt Jr. will not be automatically in the All-Star Race. In 2000, his rookie year, he posted his first Sprint Cup Series win at Texas Motor Speedway, five races before the All-Star event, and then won again at Richmond, one race before. He then became the first rookie, and one of two total (Ryan Newman 2002), to win the event. Now, since he has not won in over 103 races and his automatic bid due to winning the All Star race has expired, Earnhardt Jr. will have to gain entry by either winning the Sprint Showdown, or, very likely, receiving enough fan votes.

One positive for having to race in the showdown before the main event is that Earnhardt and Letarte will have extra laps to dial the car in before racing with the best of the series. That has been a benefit for some drivers in past races, but rarely translates into wins.

An obvious negative is that he has much more possibility of wrecking out before reaching the end of the All-Star race. Due to the nature of the events with no championship points applied, there are always big wrecks and a good bit of beating and banging.

Either way, whether Junior reaches the end of the Saturday night thriller or not, fans can bank on the race being eventful and fun to watch as it always is!


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Johnson Wins Cup... Again...

Isn't it funny how when someone dominates a sport, after a length of time, some fans like that athelete less.  In racing, it has been Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt and Jeff Gordon.  Now, and probably for many racing fans before now, you can add Jimmie Johnson.

In other sports it is the same.  In baseball, what team is hated by more fans than the Yankees?  In tennis it was McEnroe, in college football it has been Miami, USC and others, and in golf, Tiger.

For the most part, in racing, the dislike of a successful driver is tied to respect.  In the case of most, later in their career, most fans cheer for their return to victory lane.  In my case, there were few drivers I disliked more in the 1990's than Rusty Wallace and Jeff Gordon.  Everyone can tell by that remark that I was a huge Earnhardt fan.  I disliked those drivers because their periods of success in essence meant less wins for Earnhardt.  In Wallace's last few years, and now with Gordon, I have grown to respect the drivers and often hope for their success.

Not sure yet when I will feel this way for Johnson, but it has not come yet.

Don't get me wrong.  Jimmie Johnson will go down as one of the greatest champions of Nascar.  Top 5 for sure, top 3 maybe.  I have a deep amazement for what he has been able to do.  Now its time for a break.  Then again, unless someone BEATS the 48, the break will not come, which, I'm sure, Johnson hopes does not happen.  Congrats to the 48 team... and on to 2011.  Who will stop the fix for 6? " Bueller...Bueller....?"

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