Biggest Surprise And Biggest Dissapointment Of 2013

With every coming season, pundits and fans alike have their preconceptions about how the season will go.  Who will be strong?  Who will be looking for a ride at the end of the year?  And will any newcomers stake out their place at the table?

This year had many story lines, and as I included in my previous post, some of them were not so good for NASCAR as a whole.  One definite story line throughout the season was the constant ups and downs of the Penske Racing Miller Lite team and their driver Brad Keselowski. 

In 2012, the 2 team won 5 races, 2 of which came in the Chase.  They never fell below 12th in the points after the Talladega spring race, which began their gradual climb to the top.  And finally, the Miller Lite team had no DNF's after the first race of the year.  As a whole, the team was consistent, communicated efficiently, and was constantly a threat to win.

After all the banquets, parties, and appearances on late night talk shows, Keselowski and Penske Racing began the process of changing over to Ford from the departing Dodge Racing.  All seemed well as the season began: Keselowski opened up with 4 straight top 4 finishes and 7 top 10's out of the first 8 races. 

Then came Richmond.

Keselowski finished the 3/4 mile track 8 laps down and in 33rd position.  All seemed fine from the outside, but problems adjusting to the new Ford front for the Gen 6 car and other engineering changes for Ford power plants no doubt added to bad luck.  Over the next few races and then during the summer run up to the Chase, the 2 team had 3 top 5 finishes and 4 top 10's in 17 races.  In 2012 they had 2 wins, 8 top 5's, and 11 top 10's over the same stretch.

The frustration was clear.  Team radio chatter showed a break down in communication almost on a weekly basis.  Despite their best efforts, the Miller Lite team came up shy of the Chase cutoff and could not defend their championship, earning them the "Biggest Disappointment" title for 2013.

Entering speedweeks in 2013, most people took for granted that the dominant teams of the season would be, as always, the Hendrick, Roush, Penske, Gibbs, Stewart-Haas and Childress teams, perhaps adding some success by Michael Waltrip Racing.  Although many people in and out of the garage had and will have respect for the driving abilities of Kurt Busch, successfully driving a single car team to the Chase was not thought of as a probability.

2013 would prove interesting for the Furniture Row Racing team.  Their new driver, fresh off season a season of aggravation driving for Phoenix Racing, was coming into the season with the knowledge that if he did not succeed with the 78, and did not do so without controversial on or off track events, he may well be finished.  That is, at least, for the top tier teams.

This season saw some of the brash older Busch, but never crossing the line, always careful to stay away from the press when he couldn't control his tongue.  On track, Busch was back to his old form.  He didn't quite pull off a win for FRR, but a Chase berth for a single car team is just shy of a championship.  After 1 top 5 finish and 5 top 10's for Phoenix Racing, Busch posted 11 top 5's and 16 top 10's in the 78, including 3 top 5's in the Chase.

Although he has gone winless for two straight seasons now, Busch did win a ride for a top tier team, Stewart Haas Racing, and along with it, the "Biggest Surprise" title for the 2013 season.

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Excited, Kind, And Snide: Reactions To Junior's Michigan Win

It is always funny to me to sit back and watch the reactions after each race.  Depending on who wins and how the win occurs you will have any number of reactions from drivers, TV personalities, fans and writers.  Whether its Jimmie Johnson winning after dominating all day or David Reutimann snagging a lucky win, there are always people who will congratulate and those that will attempt to downplay the event.

This Sunday, of course, is no different.  As NASCAR's most liked driver was using up the ample amount of rubber left on his tires on the front stretch, there were all sorts of reactions taking place.  Announcers and NASCAR officials were glad, if not relieved, that the story line had ended in a way that will benefit the sport.  Drivers, for the most part, were congratulatory of a competitor who has been working hard for a win.  And fans were going crazy in the stands, infield, and at home.

Yet, at the same time, some were not so happy.  One particular driver felt the need to remind everyone that the next day was still a Monday and that God Himself had not spoken.  Tony Stewart, probably tired from racing for a few hours, was obviously short (pun intended) with reporters after the race.  His sentiment was that just because everyone wanted a win for Dale Jr. did not mean that he and the other drivers had to make it easy for him.  Good point, Tony, and one that I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would agree with.  To my knowledge, he has never asked Mr. Stewart to pull over and allow a pass.  Not only that, aside from getting around Dale Jr. on a restart during Sunday's race, Stewart did not have much opportunity to see the front of Dale Jr.'s car.  Perhaps he just enjoyed the paint scheme on the rear bumper.

Stewart was not the only person who was less than impressed with the win.  Many fans, and writers, hate the attention that Earnhardt Jr. gets, how TV analysts always mention him, and how devoted his fans are.  They see him as overrated and only in the sport because of his late father, 7 time Champ, Dale Earnhardt.  Are they right?  Not if you look at facts and numbers, but they are taking a purely emotional view, as are those that believe Dale Jr. can do no wrong.

A particular writer, Mr. Norris McDonald, a blogger for Wheels.ca whose posts appear on the Toronto Star website, is particularly unimpressed with Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He as much as said in his latest NASCAR piece, "Was Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Win A Fluke?", that a monkey could have driven better than Junior in the past four years and that perhaps the only way to explain Earnhardt's win on Sunday is to call it a fluke.  Was it a fluke: an accident, a break, a stroke of luck or a coincidence?  Twelve top 10's and six top 5 finishes in 15 races...  Make your own decision.

Either way, Earnhardt Jr. will be taking one less question this week.

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Does Gordon Have Time To Make Chase?

With only 3 top 10 finishes in the first 13 races of the 2012 season, Jeff Gordon is having, by far, the worst start to a season that he has had in his career.  Never before has he had so few top tens thus far into the season, including his rookie year.  He has had loose wheels, flat tires, started wrecks and got sucked into them.  I am sure the 24 team has gone through every spare good luck charm in their hauler by now.

Until 2012, Gordon has made the Chase in every year except 2005, the second year of the Chase, which he finished 11th in the points standings.  If he were to miss the Chase this year it would be only the third time in his twenty year career. 

The grinding thing for the 24 team has to be that they have had good runs, challenging for and leading races.  In fact, he has led almost as many laps in 2012 as he did in that whole 2005 season when he won 4 races on the path to that 11th place season finish.  Everything that could have gone wrong, has.  For the Dupont team of Gordon and Gustafson, Mr. Murphy has proven his law almost every weekend.

The scary fact for Gordon, at this point, is that he is 94 points out of 10th place.  With 13 races left before the Chase field is set, that would mean a gain of 7.4 points on 10th to be in the top 10 by Richmond.  Gordon is great, don't get me wrong, but it is hightly unlikely, especially since he currently has more monkeys on his back than live in the San Diego Zoo.

Gordon's best bet is to make it into the top 15 and get at least two wins, possibly three.  Currently he would have to beat the win total of Brad Keselowski (2), Kasey Kahne (1), and Ryan Newman (1).  I believe at least one of these three will be in the top 10 by Richmond, and since Keselowski is currently closest, 2 wins may just be enough to make the 2 extra Chase slots.

One thing is for certain: if those pesky monkeys ever fall off the rear deck lid of the 24, watch out Sprint Cup Series!  Gordon is running as well as he has since his great '07 season and should he make one of the two extra Chase slots due to wins, the rest of the Chase field should be on notice, he could well be the 'Tony Stewart' of 2012. (Recall that Stewart had 0 wins heading into the 2011 Chase and felt like they did not deserve to make the Chase, yet won 5 races and won the Championship.)

All of the above said, this week we are going to Pocono, a track known for killing engines, gas mileage grief, and surprise rain winners.  With so many pitfalls around the triangle track, is this the week for Gordon to mount a comeback?

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Darrell Wallace Jr: Logano, Round 2?

Four years ago, Joe Gibbs Racing began to introduce a new star to the sport of stock car racing. "Sliced Bread" was to be the next Richard Petty, was the greatest young driver ever seen by some, and was expected to make NASCAR his playground.

Over the next few seasons, Joey Logano has gained mutual respect from other NASCAR drivers, but has failed to wow fans and has won just one race. He has, however, dominated at times in the Nationwide Series where he and his JGR teammates have been the cream of the crop over the last three years.

Perhaps Logano was brought all the way up to the Cup Series before he was ready. JGR was looking for a replacement for Tony Stewart at the time who was leaving, and was, no doubt, looking for a bright, young face that could keep some sponsors. That they got.

With his 12 wins in the Nationwide Series it's easy to think that Logano would have won a Nationwide Championship by now and could have eased his way into the upper level. Perhaps his confidence would have been kept in tact and he would have had an easier time acclimating to the Sprint Cup Series. Who knows?

With Wallace Jr., however there is yet another piece of the NASCAR pie on the line. Wallace Jr. is the best new hope of NASCAR's Drive For Diversity program. Wallace Jr., an African American, has had great success in the K&N Series, and will be expected to continue that progression in the Nationwide Series for JGR. Hopefully the Gibbs organization has learned some lessons from Logano.

One benefit Wallace Jr. will have is that, although JGR may be looking to add a 4th car at some point to its Cup stable, there is no superstar seat to fill to make them do so in a hurried fashion as they did with Logano. JGR has the ability to allow Wallace Jr. The time to mature in the Nationwide Series and become accustomed to the press, fans, and everything else "NASCAR."

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Where Will Busch Go?

With all of the season ending craziness coming to an end, and after some time to hear from sponsors, Kurt Busch and Roger Penske decided to part ways.  Kurt Busch will not drive a Penske Dodge next year, leaving the #22 Penzoil Dodge open for David Ragan or another driver looking for a ride.

But just where will Busch go?

Its not as if we didn't expect to be asking that question this off-season, except most of you probably expected it would be Kyle Busch looking for a job.  However, after Kurt's tirade at the season ending race at Homestead, he will be looking for his third Sprint Cup ride. 

Busch entered the Sprint Cup Series for 7 races in 2000 in the #97 Roush Ford.  After winning a Sprint Cup Championship in 2004, Busch's relationships at Roush Fenway Racing became strained.  He then exited after 2005 to drive for Roger Penske, taking over the driving responsibilities for the blue #2 from retiring driver, Rusty Wallace.

After 10 wins and many ups and downs, the aggravation felt by Busch finally came to a head in a tirade focust at Dr. Jerry Punch, TV racing commentator/analyst, simply for having to wait for the live feed for his interview.

Now that he is without a ride, Busch may find it difficult to find a job with a top tier team.  All of the seats at Hendrick are currently filled.  Although there is a seat open at Roush Fenway Racing, they are without a sponsor, and due to old issues that move would be highly unlikely.  RCR has an open seat, but it is only open for part of the year, with Childress running his grandson, Austin Dillon, for a small schedule.  That leaves JGR, SHR, and EGR. 

Joe Gibbs has his hands full with the refitting of his three teams that did not have a good 2011, so they would be unlikely to add another possible headache.  Stewart Haas is has a full time slot and a part time slot, but without a solid sponsor would likely shy away from starting a fourth team while they are preparing to run a limited schedule with Danica Patrick in 2012.  And EGR, coming off one of their worst seasons as an organization, would have trouble getting another large sponsor without some recent success.

Start his own team or buy into a small organization?  Race into obscurity with a "go or go home" team?  I have no idea on this one.  I can definitely guarantee one thing is certain: Kurt Busch could really use a Miller Lite about now.

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Coming Back To Tony Stewart’s Turf

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will travel to Watkins Glenn International for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen. The Glen is, of course, the second road course race on the Sprint Cup schedule and is also the strongest track for Tony Stewart.

Stewart, a perennial summer powerhouse, has not yet found his summer strength and currently finds himself 9th in the points, one point ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 10th, and with no wins. Stewart is also only 24 points ahead of 11th place Denny Hamlin, a position where Stewart would find himself outside of the Chase without any wins.

The question for many NASCAR fans, specifically Stewart fans, is will Stewart make The Glen his starting point for the rest of the season. If so, he could relax their fears that he could miss the Chase for the first time since 2006, and only the second time since its inception.

The two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion must feel some comfort in returning to the New York track where he has 5 wins in the last 9 races. He certainly knows what it takes to navigate the track, but the only stat that spotlights that fact more than his five wins is the fact that from 2004-2009 his average finish there was 1.34. During those six races he had 4 wins, and either won or was chasing the winner.

There is no doubt that the winner this weekend will either have a 14 on his hood or will have to beat someone with a 14 on their hood.

If Stewart were to get a win this weekend, or even a top 5 finish, he could definitely feel a bit more comfortable with his standing above 11th heading toward the Richmond Chase cutoff. His closest competitors, Earnhardt Jr., Hamlin, and Boyer have nowhere near the average finish that he has established. The strongest of these, Hamlin, has an average finish of 13th.

If Stewart and each of his chasers reached only their average finish this weekend, Stewart would leave The Glen with a 32 point lead over 11th place. If that were so, Stewart would have to finish an average of 8 places behind Earnhardt Jr. and Hamlin in Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond. Not likely.

Either way, I am certain that only one number will be on Tony Stewart’s mind on Sunday, and that is 1st. And I definitely wouldn’t pick this Sunday to be blocking the 14…but here’s hoping someone tries…


Follow JD on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Danica Patrick: The NASCAR World Awaits!

From her courting of NASCAR in 2008 to her limited seasons in 2010 and now in 2011 with JR Motorsports, owned by Dale Earnhardt Jr. Danica Patrick has been sought after by NASCAR fans and owners alike. Her fan base, sponsor backing, and her ability to place a female in NASCAR’s Cup Series make her a worthy investment.

Now, with Carl Edwards solidly at Roush Fenway Racing, Danica is far and away the highest sought after driver in both the Sprint Cup and the Nationwide garage.

The past year and a half, rumors have run wild that she was going to move to NASCAR full time and leave her IRL career behind. Yet at the end of 2010 she resigned with Andretti Autosport to drive for owner Michael Andretti. Now rumors are spreading that she will be signing to drive full time with JR Motorsports full time in 2012 and possibly will be driving a limited Sprint Cup schedule for Stewart Haas Racing, a close ally of JR Motorsports and Hendrick Motorsports.

Many fans and commentators were very unimpressed by Patrick’s performance, both in IRL and in her first partial year in the Nationwide Series. In IRL she has only had one win in 7 years of racing and her highest season finish is 5th. In her 2010 Nationwide Series stint she had only 1 finish out of 13 inside the top 20: the last race of the season at Homestead.

Many commentators felt she would not pursue a NASCAR career due to a lack of ability to get good finishes in stock cars. Many bloggers said she was a hack and could never compete in NASCAR.

It seems as Danica Patrick was on the edge of giving up on NASCAR, something began to click. With veteran crew chief Tony Eury Jr. and driving coach Johnny Benson, former Sprint Cup driver, coaching her on NASCAR’s tracks and stock car driving styles and lingo, Danica became more and more comfortable.

With 6 races left in her 2011 season, Danica has posted 1 top 5, 3 top 10’s, and only 1 race outside the top 20. Probably more impressive is the fact that at every track Patrick has returned to in a Nationwide car, she has always finished better than the time before. At Daytona she has finished 35th, 14th, and then 10th. At Chicagoland she finished 24th then 10th when she returned. At Phoenix she finished 32nd in 2010 then finished 17th in 2011. And most impressively, at Las Vegas she finished 36th in her first year and 4th this year.

Say what you want, Patrick’s ability to settle into stock car racing is promising. Whether you like her or not, you cannot argue with the numbers. Granted, the Nationwide Series is not Cup racing, where I am sure she will have more difficulty. But the fact is that she IS competing at the Nationwide series with a short time in the car.

The next question for Patrick, who is rumored to drive an Indy car for only the Indy 500 next year, is will a full time schedule with no IRL propel her to compete at an even higher level. She will have to show a little more ability and nerve in her Sprint Cup appearances if she wants to be taken seriously at that level.

I, for one, won’t doubt that she can do it. I mean, have you ever told a woman she “can’t” do something?


Follow JD on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #5- Stewart-Haas Racing

The biggest problem that Stewart-Haas Racing had in 2010 was inconsistency.  Both Stewart and Newman had strings of good finishes but would then have 2 or 3 DNF's or poor finishes due to mechanical or handling problems.

For Stewart, the customary late-season charge never came.  That along with a poor Spring made for a so-so 2010 for the 14 team.  Stewart almost mounted a charge in the fall with a win and a 4th place finish in California and Kansas, but followed those finishes with five finishes outside the top 10.  In the nine races he in which he led laps, six of them ended with Stewart not on the lead lap.  In 2011 if Stewart can avoid the wrecks and change a few finishes, he could be once again in contention for the championship.  Who else would be a better competitor for Jimmie Johnson in the Fall?  If he can return to his hard-charging late-year racing, he can definitely give JJ a run.

Newman, however, may need a few handling repairs to break through.  With 6 finishes of 30th or worse, and 15 finishes between 15th and 29th, Newman will need both consistency and a little better late-race handling.  Too many times in 2010 the 39 team either could not compete at all or tapered off late in the race.  In the eight races in which Newman led laps he either finished in the top 12 or he wrecked.

No matter how they finished in 2010, there are not too many other drivers that are as hard-driving and strong willed as Stewart and Newman.  Look for Stewart-Haas Racing to build on a season in which both drivers had wins.  If a few breaks go their way, look for both of them in the top 10 come chase time with Stewart poised to challenge for a third championship.

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