Who Will Get The Wild Cards?

With only 6 races remaining until the cutoff for the Chase after Richmond, the race for the two coveted wildcard spots is tightening up.  Although anything could happen between now and the finish under the lights at Richmond, the field is pretty well down to 5 drivers: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon.  Paul Menard and Joey Logano are close to Gordon in points totals, but neither of them have are currently headed in the right direction, so a 6 race swing in their favor is not likely.  Ambrose, always a possible winner at Watkins Glen, would need more than 1 win to make the spot from so far back, which is probably not going to happen either.

The 10th position in the points is currently occupied by Clint Bowyer, a solid 55 points ahead of 11th, Kyle Busch.  If anyone is capable of putting together a string of good finishes, let alone wins, to get into the top 10, Kyle Busch is that person.  However, lately Busch has been having trouble putting together 500 miles without blowing an engine, so making up an average of 9.2 points per race on Bowyer would be a tough order.

So who out of the 5 wild card contenders will gain a Chase entry?  Let’s look at the last 6 races: Pocono (this week), Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond.  Out of the 5 contenders, only 3 have wins: Busch (1), Kahne (2), and Newman (1).  I personally believe that 2 wins will get you in this year, a thought for which time is dwindling to disprove.  That means that Kahne will be in this year's Chase.  It also means that now we have 4 drivers contending for 1 spot.

Of the four I would definitely say that Busch has the best shot.  He has more points than the others (not by much) and only Gordon has more wins at the coming 6 tracks.  In fact, Busch is more of a lock than anyone to compete for the win at Richmond: his average finish there is 4.7.  That is in 15 visits, during which he only has 2 finishes OUTSIDE THE TOP 5.  That is ridiculous, so much so that I had to look at the stats twice. 

Although Carl Edwards is just behind Busch in the points, I don't give him much of a chance to make this year's Chase.  Edwards has no wins this year, has only 2 top 5 finishes, and has just received a Crew Chief change.  Yes, Edwards does have the best finishing average at these 6 tracks (out of these 4 drivers), but right now points won't help unless you have wins, and Edwards is not even knocking on the door.

Ryan Newman is has a chance at the final spot for two reasons: he has one win and he is always a threat to win at Richmond and Pocono, as he is good on flat tracks.  Newman’s chances, however, hinge on him winning and Busch not winning.  Newman is unlikely to pass Busch in points because, although he is only 15 back, his average finish at the 6 tracks lags behind Busch's.

Lastly we have Jeff Gordon.  Gordon is in need of a hot streak, something he has not seen in a few years.  Gordon is 24 points behind Busch, but without a win he is helpless.  Gordon needs at least one win to make the Chase this year, and at the remaining tracks he has 23 previous wins.  Although many would think of him as a threat at Watkins Glen, Gordon has 5 wins each at Pocono, Atlanta, and Bristol.  If Gordon could catch some luck and momentum at the same time, he is in, but that is a huge if.

I should add that Kasey Kahne should be relieved that his 2 wins is likely to put him over the threshold, as his average finish at the next 6 venues is a dismal 18.3, with Michigan being the only one with an average finish under 17th.

All in all, I would say that the race for the Chase should be coming down to a good show.  Between drivers trying to win their way in to the Chase and those looking for more bonus points, a few fenders are likely in for some damage, or at least we can hope...

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Does Gordon Have Time To Make Chase?

With only 3 top 10 finishes in the first 13 races of the 2012 season, Jeff Gordon is having, by far, the worst start to a season that he has had in his career.  Never before has he had so few top tens thus far into the season, including his rookie year.  He has had loose wheels, flat tires, started wrecks and got sucked into them.  I am sure the 24 team has gone through every spare good luck charm in their hauler by now.

Until 2012, Gordon has made the Chase in every year except 2005, the second year of the Chase, which he finished 11th in the points standings.  If he were to miss the Chase this year it would be only the third time in his twenty year career. 

The grinding thing for the 24 team has to be that they have had good runs, challenging for and leading races.  In fact, he has led almost as many laps in 2012 as he did in that whole 2005 season when he won 4 races on the path to that 11th place season finish.  Everything that could have gone wrong, has.  For the Dupont team of Gordon and Gustafson, Mr. Murphy has proven his law almost every weekend.

The scary fact for Gordon, at this point, is that he is 94 points out of 10th place.  With 13 races left before the Chase field is set, that would mean a gain of 7.4 points on 10th to be in the top 10 by Richmond.  Gordon is great, don't get me wrong, but it is hightly unlikely, especially since he currently has more monkeys on his back than live in the San Diego Zoo.

Gordon's best bet is to make it into the top 15 and get at least two wins, possibly three.  Currently he would have to beat the win total of Brad Keselowski (2), Kasey Kahne (1), and Ryan Newman (1).  I believe at least one of these three will be in the top 10 by Richmond, and since Keselowski is currently closest, 2 wins may just be enough to make the 2 extra Chase slots.

One thing is for certain: if those pesky monkeys ever fall off the rear deck lid of the 24, watch out Sprint Cup Series!  Gordon is running as well as he has since his great '07 season and should he make one of the two extra Chase slots due to wins, the rest of the Chase field should be on notice, he could well be the 'Tony Stewart' of 2012. (Recall that Stewart had 0 wins heading into the 2011 Chase and felt like they did not deserve to make the Chase, yet won 5 races and won the Championship.)

All of the above said, this week we are going to Pocono, a track known for killing engines, gas mileage grief, and surprise rain winners.  With so many pitfalls around the triangle track, is this the week for Gordon to mount a comeback?

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Appeal Turns Hendrick Week From Bad To Good

Although prospects for Hendrick Motorsports is always good at Bristol Motor Speedway, especially with 5 time Bristol winner, Jeff Gordon, Hendrick luck went downhill as the race went along last weekend.  First, early in the race, Kasey Kahne was knocked out of contention in a pile up in the top ten.  Then later in the race, Gordon's left rear tire was cut down after minor contact from Dale Earnhardt Jr., a teammate, no less.  Then to top things off, as Dale Jr. was running at the back of the top 5 and looking for a possible top 3, the 88 team received a speeding violation which dropped them to a 15th place finish for the day.

Johnson, the only Hendrick car to finish in the top 10 (9th), salvaged his day after early damage from the Kahne wreck by slowly taking what he could get.  After a few weeks of fines, points taken away, crew chief suspension and on track troubles, Johnson was probably glad to post a top 10 and go home.  With one more opportunity for appeal to the judgement NASCAR handed down for their Daytona violation, off track preparation to get the 48 back on track to compete for a 6th Sprint Cup was, no doubt, in high gear.

Well, thanks to the appeal judgement by John Middlebrook, Johnson will not have to go 6 races without crew chief Chad Knaus.  Although he and car chief Ron Malec will face a probationary period, their track privileges will remain in tact for now.  Johnson will also regain the 25 championship points that were taken after Daytona, which, along with his 9th place finish on Sunday, will bring him to 12th in the early season standings. 

Although a lack of wins for the Hendrick stable just four races into the 2012 season is hardly a reason for concern, with much invested over the off season into each of the teams, some dividends are probably expected soon.  Most people probably did not expect the new 5 team of Kahne and Francis to exit the gate with wins, but becoming the weekly appointment for the first caution flag has to be aggravating.  Also, some results from the 24, which started 2011 hot, and the 88 that many people feel is getting close, will be expected soon, especially with Martinsville and Texas just around the corner.

For now, the Hendrick family will have to be happy knowing that everyone will be packing to go to California for this weekend.

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Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


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Which Will Make The Chase, Jeff Gordon Or Denny Hamlin?

With nine Sprint Cup races in the book for 2011, the picture of which teams will compete for the 2011 Chase is quickly coming into focus. With exception of the two road courses, teams have faces each type of track that they will race on, and have had enough time to establish a foundation for the rest of the season.

There have been a few people who have had surprising success this year, some lasting and some starting to fade. The RPM duo of Almendinger and Ambrose had some initial success this year, running strong in the first few races of the year. However, now that the new has worn off, the two have had some struggles and are currently 11th and 23rd in the points respectively. They are, of course, much higher than last year, but with poor performances in the past few weeks, expect them to slide a bit more until their new teams and the RPM leadership can get some organization done that they had little time for since the team reformed late last fall.

Other surprises, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman, are having a good deal of success. Both have had little success in the past five years. Newman, in nine races, has one less top 5 finish than he accumulated in all of 2010. If he continues at this pace he will have his best season since 2003, when he finished 6th in the points. He also had 8 wins that year. Earnhardt is again driving with confidence. If Steve Letarte can keep the 88 crew “between the ditches,” victory lane will come, at least once or twice, and a Chase berth is likely.

Two drivers noticeably absent from the top ten in points are Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Both of these drivers are considered near the best in their sport, yet they are having trouble getting their footing in 2011. If you had to choose, though, which driver do you think will make the Chase?

Hamlin is currently 17th in the points, 97 points behind the leader. If Hamlin cannot gain ground in the next 10 races, he will have to rely on wins to gain a Chase berth. Of course Hamlin can move up: he is only 37 points behind Tony Stewart in 10th. Hamlin has not, however, had very many good finishes. In nine races, he only has 2 top 10’s and 1 top 5, and suspicion is now rising that communication between he and crew chief Mike Ford is sub par at best.

Gordon, 16th in points, is also well out of his comfort zone. He is accustomed to competing, if not dominating, the points standings and has better vision through his rear view mirror than his windshield. However, early successes with new crew chief Alan Gustafson give reason for optimism. Gordon has only 3 top tens, but the up side is that they were all top 5’s and one was a win. Gordon can obviously compete. If the 24 crew can avoid more wrecks and can make a few adjustments, Gordon could be tough to beat late in the season.

I believe that, if only one of the two make the Chase, it will be Jeff Gordon. Although I would never bet against Hamlin, one simply has to look at the most important relationship in the garage: the driver – crew chief relationship. Gordon’s relationship with Gustafson is just beginning and, considering their personalities and drive will likely be successful. Hamlin’s relationship with Ford, however, is declining due to aggravation and distrust from last season’s end. If Joe Gibbs and crew cannot mend this due, the 11 team is in for a long season indeed.


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #2- Hendrick Motorsports

What???  Hendrick comes in second??  They may win the championship, and I believe they will win races with all four drivers, but I do not feel they are the strongest team in 2011...yet.  I said yet...  I believe they will finish 2011 as the strongest team, but with a slow start due to off season changes they will not have the strongest season as a whole. 

For Mark Martin, and for NASCAR, 2011 may be the end of an era.  After 2011, Martin may end up driving full time for another team, but will more likely go back to semi-retirement.  This man of steel has shown us in the past not to count him out, so don't this year.  He will be re-training Crew Chief Lance McGrew who comes over from the old 88 team and will be housed now with Jeff Gordon.  Look for these two veterans to make a hard charge come Summer.

2011 was one of the worst years ever for Dale Earnhardt Jr., but believe it or not, it was a better year than 2009.  He had more top 10's and top 5's, finished 4 spots better in points, and went from 5 DNF's to 0 DNF's.  However, none of the stats were very good in 2010, no matter how bad 2009 was.  The hope for the 88 team rests mostly in the changes of the off season and the enthusiasm those changes have caused.  Now that Jr. will be housed with Jimmie Johnson, led by Steve Letarte, and driving Jeff Gordon's cars from last year, there seems to be a true excitement from him heading into Daytona.  It will be up and down in the beginning of the season, but if they can get some top 10's early and often, look out.  I think Jr will win by August, will make the Chase, and finish in the top 10 in points.  Don't wake me up.

Is 2011 the beginning of the end for Jeff Gordon, or the end of the beginning?  I know he his not about to retire, although he has spoken more and more of retirement in the past few years.  2010 was aggravating to Gordon to say the least.  He had only 1 top 5 in the last 15 races, but 2 finishes worse than 30th.  He had no wins and only one pole, his lowest pole total since 1997.  This year, he will have Alan Gustafson as his Crew Chief and will be housed with Mark Martin.  Look for Gordon to have the most initial success out of the changed teams.  If he can remember how to charge at the end of a race, and I think he can, look for Gordon to enter the Chase in the top 5 and finish top 3.

Is Johnson a fix for six??  I don't think so.  Although he and Knaus showed strong desire once challenged in October, he didn't show the same fire the whole year.  His May, July and August were so so with only 2 top 10's and no top 5's.  However, I did forget to mention June... In June he had 2 wins and an average finish of 3.25.  Although I don't think he will win the championship, he still has the ability to pound out win after win when he gets on a roll.  I think Johnson will enter the Chase with a few wins in the top 5 in points, but with a couple of DNF's in the Chase, only finishes around 5th.  His luck in the Chase can't last forever.  He has not had more than one finish outside the top 15 in the Chase since his first championship in 2006 which he made up for with 5 straight top 2 finishes.

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