Biggest Surprise And Biggest Dissapointment Of 2013

With every coming season, pundits and fans alike have their preconceptions about how the season will go.  Who will be strong?  Who will be looking for a ride at the end of the year?  And will any newcomers stake out their place at the table?

This year had many story lines, and as I included in my previous post, some of them were not so good for NASCAR as a whole.  One definite story line throughout the season was the constant ups and downs of the Penske Racing Miller Lite team and their driver Brad Keselowski. 

In 2012, the 2 team won 5 races, 2 of which came in the Chase.  They never fell below 12th in the points after the Talladega spring race, which began their gradual climb to the top.  And finally, the Miller Lite team had no DNF's after the first race of the year.  As a whole, the team was consistent, communicated efficiently, and was constantly a threat to win.

After all the banquets, parties, and appearances on late night talk shows, Keselowski and Penske Racing began the process of changing over to Ford from the departing Dodge Racing.  All seemed well as the season began: Keselowski opened up with 4 straight top 4 finishes and 7 top 10's out of the first 8 races. 

Then came Richmond.

Keselowski finished the 3/4 mile track 8 laps down and in 33rd position.  All seemed fine from the outside, but problems adjusting to the new Ford front for the Gen 6 car and other engineering changes for Ford power plants no doubt added to bad luck.  Over the next few races and then during the summer run up to the Chase, the 2 team had 3 top 5 finishes and 4 top 10's in 17 races.  In 2012 they had 2 wins, 8 top 5's, and 11 top 10's over the same stretch.

The frustration was clear.  Team radio chatter showed a break down in communication almost on a weekly basis.  Despite their best efforts, the Miller Lite team came up shy of the Chase cutoff and could not defend their championship, earning them the "Biggest Disappointment" title for 2013.

Entering speedweeks in 2013, most people took for granted that the dominant teams of the season would be, as always, the Hendrick, Roush, Penske, Gibbs, Stewart-Haas and Childress teams, perhaps adding some success by Michael Waltrip Racing.  Although many people in and out of the garage had and will have respect for the driving abilities of Kurt Busch, successfully driving a single car team to the Chase was not thought of as a probability.

2013 would prove interesting for the Furniture Row Racing team.  Their new driver, fresh off season a season of aggravation driving for Phoenix Racing, was coming into the season with the knowledge that if he did not succeed with the 78, and did not do so without controversial on or off track events, he may well be finished.  That is, at least, for the top tier teams.

This season saw some of the brash older Busch, but never crossing the line, always careful to stay away from the press when he couldn't control his tongue.  On track, Busch was back to his old form.  He didn't quite pull off a win for FRR, but a Chase berth for a single car team is just shy of a championship.  After 1 top 5 finish and 5 top 10's for Phoenix Racing, Busch posted 11 top 5's and 16 top 10's in the 78, including 3 top 5's in the Chase.

Although he has gone winless for two straight seasons now, Busch did win a ride for a top tier team, Stewart Haas Racing, and along with it, the "Biggest Surprise" title for the 2013 season.

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What Have We Learned From 2013?

Close the book.  Another year in the history of NASCAR has come to a close.  All of the preparation of the garage for the new Gen 6, the plate races, the summer stretch, and the Chase - over.  No more "Five Time", Jimmie Johnson now has 6 in his attempt for the most cups.

With everything over and written down, just what have we learned this season?  What bits of wisdom has 2013 imparted to us to clarify what is coming in 2014 and beyond?

First, we have re-learned that Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are nowhere near finished dominating the sport.  It is utterly amazing how much their combination is made for the Sprint Cup setup and would not work without one of the two.  Johnson has a 1 win to every 6.6 race ratio in Sprint Cup, an unbelievable fact when placed beside his 1 win to 93 race ratio in the Nationwide Series.

Many people say that the 48's success lies solely with Chad Knaus or is only because of Hendrick money.  Those people should think about the 3 races Johnson drove in Hendrick cars without Knaus with an average finish of 31st.  They should also consider that in 35 Sprint Cup races without Jimmie Johnson, Knaus has zero wins, zero top 5's, and only 1 top 10 with an average finish of 24th.

No, Knaus, Johnson, and Hendrick make a mixture precision, determination and, yes, money, that will be successful as long as the three are combined.  Will there be a 7th championship?  Probably.  Will they continue forever?  Nothing lasts forever, but for now there is no end in sight, so get used to it.

Second, we learned that the fall from dominance and competitiveness is a steep one.  Last year we had a young and exciting new champion who looked like he would carry his success forward with a new make, but Brad Keselowski's change from Dodge to Ford proved anything but successful.  Penske Racing did not change crews, kept the same crew chief, the same driver, and merely changed engines and decals.  Still, the blue deuce ended up 14th at the end of the season and was not able to compete in the Chase to defend their championship.

Yes, Keselowski still had a win, and yes he led laps, but after the trouble began in mid spring after a penalty for questionable parts sidelined his crew chief, they could not rebound.  They began the season with 4 straight top 5's, then had a 10 race run in the spring that saw them outside the top 20 for 6 races and aggravation became disappointment when his new teammate made the Chase and he did not.

Finally, we learned that the more things change the more they stay the same.  NASCAR has spent years and dollars changing the image of the sport from the "if you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin", brawling blue collar sport of the 50's, 60's and 70's.  Yet what did we get this year?  "Is your arm starting to hurt?....Itch it..."  And, "Good job man, hopefully we'll get something out of that."  For any readers who don't get the reference, these were radio transmissions from the Richmond race where drivers, crews, and owners reportedly conspired to affect the points so particular drivers could make the Chase.

With these three things in mind, an outlook on 2014 would have to conclude that Johnson will be strong, Keselowski will be looking to make a point, and NASCAR drivers and owners will continue to do anything they think they can get away with to win.  All three of these probabilities should make for another great season.

How many days until Daytona?

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Dale Jr's Best Start To A Season...

Prior to the start of the 2013 season, 2004 and 2008 stood out as the best seasons for Dale Jr. out of the gate.  Both seasons were important from different standpoints for Junior: 2004 was Junior's first real title challenge and 2008 was Dale Jr.'s first season with Rick Hendrick.

In '04, Junior started the season with wins at Daytona and Atlanta, a 5th place finish at Rockingham, and a 10th place finish at Darlington.  Although some may say Dale Jr. was better at being aggressive in his earlier seasons, he definitely wasn't as good at taking care of his equipment, which led to a few dissappointing finishes early and late in the season.

All in all, 2004 was a great year for Junior, but had he been able to finish the season the way he started we may all have been calling him a former champion.  His late season finishes of 33rd at Martinsville and Atlanta effectively removed him from the championship hunt.  Even a Phoenix win just before the end of the season couldn't bring him back.

With the 2004 season ending in "What might have been.." Dale Jr. lost his crew chief, Tony Eury Sr., to a "promotion" and began working with his cousing Tony Eury Jr.  Fifteen of Junior's nineteen Sprint Cup wins came with Tony Eury Sr., along with two Nationwide Series Championships.  Even though the '04 season began with promise, iit ended in a change that didn't go as well as many hoped.

The 2008 season, as in '04, began strong, with three top 5's and a top 10 finish.  Everyone was expecting Dale Jr. to show what he could do now that he was finally in Hendrick race cars and away from his stepmother.  The fan fare didn't last long, though, as frustration between he and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. grew from inconsistent finishes which gave way to poor finishes nearing season's end. 

Again, Dale Jr. was left frustrated and confused in the off season.  Soon after, he and cousin crew chief were separated again, and Junior began a long, cold era of his career.

This year, Dale Jr. has started out with 5 straight top 10 finishes, including 3 top 5's.  His average finish so far is 4.4, worlds better than any other season.  He has 47 laps led so far, 5 less than his season total for 2011, a season which he finished 7th in points. 

Dale Jr. is also the current point leader, a spot he has only held in 2 other seasons: 2004 and last year.  Only time will tell, however, if he can hold that spot nearing season's end.

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'01 Til Now, With Dale Earnhardt...

This week marks 12 years since the 2001 Daytona 500 which ended in the tragic death of NASCAR great Dale Earnhardt.  In the wake of Earnhardt's death, NASCAR embarked on the largest safety renovation in its history, resulting in the safety of the sport in 2013.  After NASCAR celebrated the coming Daytona 500 with a remebrance of Dale Earnhardt, one must think about what might have been.

How would the sport have progressed in the past 12 years had Earnhardt not died?  Would safety measures have been made and what other differences would their be?  Lets take a look back at how the past 12 years would have been with Dale Earnhardt around.

Imagine the victory lane celebration February 18, 2001 when Michael Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Dale Earnhardt finished 1, 2, 3.  Earnhardt now has an established NASCAR Cup Series team, capable of winning and competing each week.  He just finished second in the points in 2000 and is on the upswing again in his career.  After winning a couple races in 2001 he finishes a close second to Jeff Gordon in the 2001 Cup Championship.

In the next couple of years, driver injuries and another driver death add to the recent deaths of Kenny Irwin and Adam Petty to force NASCAR into further safety measures.  Only a handful of drivers still use open-faced helmets, but all drivers use some form of head and neck restraining device.  NASCAR is also developing safety measure in the cars to absorb more force on impact.

After finishing 5th in the 2002 Cup Series Championship points, Dale Earnhardt decides to retire after the 2003 season.  Dale Jr. finished the 2002 season 3rd in points propelling him to a Championship challenge in 2003.  New talk by NASCAR about a wider, taller, safer car with identical front ends for all manufacturers is met by contention from NASCAR veterans.  NASCAR adapts the front ends to incorporate more brand identity.

In 2004 Dale Earnhardt joins Darrell Waltrip in the broadcasting booth for a few races to add commentary, but decides against a long term contract citing too much hot air in the booth coming from Waltrip as a reason to stay on pit road.  With late season coaching from his father, Dale Jr. wins the 2004 Championship, giving DEI its first Championship and the Earnhardt family its eighth. 

Over the next few years NASCAR sees many changes amongst teams.  There is an addition of a 4th DEI team, as Earnhardt has recruited Tony Stewart away from Joe Gibbs Racing, making the DEI stable every bit as strong as NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports.  Hendrick, losing hardheaded driver Kyle Busch to JGR, adds newcomer Juan Pablo Montoya from F1 in a single car partnership with Chip Ganassi and adds Mark Martin from Jack Roush's stable, outbidding startup owner Ginn Racing.

Heading into the current decade, NASCAR has now begun to eclipse the NFL in total market share, and continues to expand into new markets, despite a steep downturn in the economy.  However, fans still appreciate NASCAR's roots, such as its annual Labor Day weekend at the Southern 500 at Darlington, South Carolina.

No, that is not how things turned out, and probably light years from how it may have happened, but one could definitely see how the sport would have been different had the '01 500 ended differently.  Dale Earnhardt was a huge part of the sport's success, not always perfect, but always a part of the conversation.  No doubt NASCAR would be different, but one can only speculate in what ways.

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2012: In With A Bang, Out With A Kes

NASCAR's 2012 Sprint Cup season is over and gone, but before we begin to speculate about what may be for 2013, lets take one last look at the wild ride that was the 2012 season.

The 2012 season story began with several before/after stories.  To begin, Kyle Busch, a perennial threat with the ability to win every week, won the Budweiser Shootout.  Many people would have thought the 18 bunch could have put together a strong run this year, but shortly into the season their wheels would fall off.  He did manage a points win at Richmond, but that would be all for him in 2012, his lowest win total since 2007.

The next before and after story would have to be the before and after photos of Daytona International Speedway after Juan Pablo Montoya played demolition derby with a jet dryer.  Fortunately nobody was hurt, but the ensuing fire and inspection of the track caused the Daytona 500 to end well into the night.

Another early season story we saw was Matt Kenseth's dominance.  He won the Daytona 500 and ended up the points leader by mid season, but his contract talks with Roush Fenway Racing fell apart.  Probably the largest blunder RFR has made, Kenseth ended up signing to drive for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, effectively ending the teams ability to race for the 2012 championship.

Returning to challenge for the Sprint Cup points lead this year was driver 88, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  After beginning the year with a large stretch of top 10 runs, he finally returned to victory lane at Michigan with a dominating performance.  Although he did reach the points lead briefly during the summer, his season slowed after an initial concussion at a Kansas tire test in August, then totally stopped with a second concussion and ensuing 2 week break at Talladega. 

One of the most entertaining stories of the season was the tension and on-track altercation between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer.  After consistent contact between the 15 and 24 for a couple races, Gordon finally had all he could handle and wrecked Bowyer during the final laps of the Phoenix Chase race, effectively ending Bowyer's chances at winning the championship.  The ensuing melee in the garage area brought about probations and fines a plenty and added to the drama when the two drivers finished first and second in the season ending race at Homestead.  I doubt the two will be drafting partners at Daytona come February.

The final story of the season came down to Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson.  Many people wondered whether the young driver could handle the pressure and hold back the five time champion for the 2012 Sprint cup, but as the end of the Chase grew closer, it was Johnson, Knaus, and the 48 crew that did not stand up to the pressure.  Keselowski obtained the points lead after a misstep by the Lowe's team at Phoenix and did not let it go.

The stories of the 2012 season were plenty and were fun to follow.  There were great races, a good Chase, and even some altercations in the garage.  Here's hoping the 2013 season will rise to the occasion.

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Comparing Dale Jr. To His Father, Off The Track

NASCAR fans, like those of other sports, are tremendously loyal to their favorite driver.  They wear the numbers, watch religously, and cheer in good times and bad.  When children, or even grandchildren, of drivers have begun racing careers they are instantly compared to their fathers, older brothers, or grandfathers.  Pettys, Bakers, Jarretts, Wallaces, Earnhardts and more have had to prove themselves worthy of carrying their own name.

So many people have compared Dale Earnhardt Jr. to his late father, especially while he was trying to recoup from dissappointing finishes the last few seasons.  They often compared his ability to draft or "see the air" to his father's ability at NASCAR's restrictor plate tracks, Daytona and Talladega.  They have even compared his less aggressive style to his father's aggressiveness that got him the nicknames Ironhead and Intimidator.

Junior's inability to be 'Dale Earnhardt' has often been discussed, but almost always in reference to their on track talents, not their off track successes.  So just how does Dale Jr. compare to his father from monday to thursday?

In Earnhardt's later years he was known as one of NASCAR's best business men.  Earnhardt owned car dealerships, was part owner in a minor league baseball team, started and ran a multi-car NASCAR Sprint Cup team (Winston Cup at the time), and had by far the most successful merchandising machine selling Dale Earnhardt, #3, and DEI merchandise by the millions.

Dale Earnhardt's marketing business was eventually sold to Action Performance, which is currently owned by Speedway Motorsports Inc. and International Speedway Corp., owners of most of NASCAR's tracks, marketing and more.  His head of marketing that helped build his empire was Joe Mattes.  Where does Mr. Mattes currently work?  You guessed it, as VP of Merchandising and Licensing for JRMotorsports.

JRMotorsports began as a management company for Dale Earnhardt Jr., but has grown into a merchandising company and Nationwide Series racing team combined.  In 2006, JRM began running Nationwide series races and since has begun the NASCAR careers of both Danica Patrick and 2012 Sprint Cup Chamption Brad Keselowski.

Whether you are a fan of the 88 on the track or not, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has had a huge amount of success off the track.  He has appeared or done voice work in movies like Talladega Nights and Cars.  He has appeared in music videos for Sheryl Crow, Jay-Z, Nickelback, Three Doors Down, Trace Adkins and more.

Ok, so you say that has all come because of his last name... Yeah, probably, but he has taken that opportunity and ran with it.  His enjoyment of NASCAR history was the foundation to his ownership of Hammerhead Media, a production company that produced his show Back In The Day which aired on the Speed Channel and Shifting Gears which aired on ESPN2.

Earnhardt Jr.'s latest ventures include opening two large-scale bar/nightclubs in both Charlotte, NC and Jacksonville, FL called Whiskey River and two car dealerships in Tallahassee, FL which he ownes in conjunction with Rick Hendrick.

No, Junior will never win seven championships.  He may not win the first one. But whether you believe he is worthy of driving a Cup car (I do) or not, he most definitely learned much from his father off the track as well.

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On Your Mark!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 6th-12th

Now that all of the jockeying for a Chase spot is over, the attention of twelve drivers will turn toward the final ten races of the year.  As the Chase is complete with downforce tracks, a restrictor plate track, a short track, a concrete track, a flat track, and the one of a kind Homestead, a well rounded racer should do well.  However, with only 10 races to go, and every point important, a driver with the ability to finish well every week will be hard to beat as well.

12th - Jeff Gordon: Gordon made his way into this year's Chase with a great finish at Richmond after struggling early.  Although this team needed help from a bad finish by the 18 team to make the Chase, don't count them out easily.  Gordon is a 4 time champ, is the most winning active driver, and is always capable of hitting a hot streak.  Gordon averages a 12.2 place finish at the 10 tracks and has 31 wins on them.

11th - Kasey Kahne: The 5 team made the Chase with Kahne in their first year together due, in large part, to Kahne's strong wins early in the season.  Although Kahne has not been unstopable during the summer, he has maintained a strong team and his two wins solidified their Chase spot.  Kahne has never excelled at the Chase, his best finish being 8th, but he has also not competed in the Chase in a Hendrick car.  Kahne has an average finish of 16.3 with 7 wins at the Chase tracks.

10th - Martin Truex Jr.: How this team made the Chase with such strong runs and did not win, I do not know, but nevertheless, they are in and looking for a win.  Truex has never finished in the top 10 in the Sprint Cup Series, but don't count this team out.  They have been consistent all season and should have a good showing.  Truex has an average finish of 15.7 with his only career win coming at the Chase track of Dover.

9th - Kevin Harvick: Will the 29 team's crew chief change make a big enough difference for them to have a productive Chase?  Only time will tell.  Harvick does have some unfinished business in the Chase after coming in third the past two years, but with zero wins on the year, finishing the season out with a couple of wins to head into 2013 may be a more realistic goal.  Harvick has an average finish of 13.7 and has 8 wins at the Chase tracks.

8th - Matt Kenseth: After being at the points lead for much of the season, Kenseth dropped to 8th due to only producing one win in the regular season.  Although the team said Kenseth's coming departure to Joe Gibbs Racing would not be a distraction, competitiveness has tapered off in the past few weeks.  Kenseth could do well in the Chase, but with RFR preparing for Stenhouse Jr. to take over that ride and Kenseth preparing commercialse for his new sponsor for next year (Home Depot), it is not likely.  Kenseth has an average finish of 14.8 and has 8 wins at Chase tracks.

7th - Dale Earnhardt Jr.:  Dale Jr. enters the Chase in 7th place, the exact same spot he finished last year.  Although he has an average finish of 16.6 at the Chase tracks, he has 10 wins on them.  He only posted one top 5 in last year's chase, but with an average finish of 6.1 on downforce tracks this season, his 2012 Chase is bound to be more productive.

6th - Clint Bowyer:  In his first year in a MWR Toyota, Bowyer makes the Chase as one of two MWR teams in the Chase.  Although many people thought he would not do as well in his first year at a "weaker" team, his old team, RCR, is only sending one car to the Chase.  Bowyer has some good tracks in the Chase and proved with his win last weekend at Richmond that he could be a force in the Chase outcome.  Bowyer has an average finish of 14.6 and 4 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Chase 2012: 'Outwit', 'Outplay', or 'Outlast'?

With this season's up and down nature, engine's blowing, and no clear dominator, this year's Chase could be an exercise in 'Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast'.  Although there is always a possibility of someone getting on a hot streak as Tony Stewart did late in last year's Chase, the field seems very level for those who are definitely in the Chase.

Each of the past several weeks there has been one or more of this year's contenders in trouble.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. wrecked in practice, in a race, and tore up a transmission.  Johnson never seriously contended at the Glen, then blew his engine within sight of victory lane at Michigan.  Kenseth or his team, or both, are apparently looking forward to next season.  And Keselowski is now following the Hendrick cars around drooling over their 'rear ends'.  Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

The way things are shaping up, the Chase is possibly going to be a case of who stays out of trouble, dodge's wrecks, steals one with stragegy, and keeps their engines running coming out ahead of the other contenders.  With only 10 races in the Chase, one DNF can easily end a driver's chance at the Sprint Cup, especially if there are one or two drivers who are cautious and lucky enough to stay 'clean' throughout the Chase.

One thing is for sure, the race to the Chase for those contending for the two wildcard slots will come down to outwit or outplay.  Should anyone of the drivers with one win snag another victory, it could be all they need, because none of those drivers look like they could run off a string of 2 or three wins right now.

As for how the Chase has historically played out, there have been a mixture of three plots.  In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2010, the Champion would win none or one race in the Chase, and effectively 'Outlast' the field.  In each of those years, a driver other than the eventual champ would win 2 or more races in the Chase, but one or more poor performances put them in a hole too deep to win.  In 2004, in fact, Jimmie Johnson had 4 Chase wins, but could only manage to climb back to second by season's end. 

In 2007, 2009, and 2011 the Champion 'Outplayed' the field.  In each of those years the eventual winner would snag at least 4 Chase races and simply dominate the competition to the point that sheer speed won out.  And in 2008 the Championship was won by a combination of 'Outwit', 'Outlast' and 'Outplay'.  In that year, three drivers had multiple Chase wins, and two had three wins in what ended up as a virtual slugfest to the finish.  Although Carl Edwards won 3 of the final 4 races, the points Johnson had amassed in his 3 wins gave him the cushion to keep Edwards at bay for the final races.

One driver you will hear commentators say does not have the ability to hit a hot streak during the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr.  His best showing in the Chase races was in 2004 where he won 2 races in the final 10.  The most promising news for the 88 crew is that his performance in the 1.5 mile tracks has been solid this year, which could translate into some success in the fall.

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Earnhardt Jr. Haters Are Fuming

After a week off and some relaxation, the NASCAR stars were back to action at one of the world's most loved tracks, Indianapolis.  With a dwindling amount of races left to the Chase cutoff, teams were looking to make a move and either gain bonus points to begin the Chase or to make their way into the Chase by way of victories.

At the top of the story pile, as usual, was Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He was looking to top his best Brickyard finish (6th), become only the second 'son' to win in a 'father/son' combination, to tie Jeff Gordon for most consecutive lead lap finishes in the Modern Era, and to further solidify himself near the top of the standings in preparation for the Chase.  Some 400 miles and a small amount of side-by-side racing later, Earnhardt Jr. finished the day completing 3 of his 4 goals.  Although his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, piloted the 48 to a dominating win, his 4th at Indy, Dale Jr. finished 4th and took over the Sprint Cup Series points lead after Matt Kenseth was collected in a late race collision. 

And the smoke begins.

Although Earnhardt Jr. has had a great season, by many measures his best ever, there have always been and will always be those who cannot stand the attention and following he garners.  Whether those people are former fans that had their feelings hurt by his poor performances from 2006-2010, or they are die hard Kyle Petty fans who only wish their 'son of a legend' favorite had the same ability, they will not be happy.  They are more than willing to pile-on criticism whether Junior is finishing in the top-5 or if he has a bad race and finishes outside the top-10.  They call him "Over88ted", under-talented, rookie, and more.  There is even an Over88ted.com, dedicated to pointing out every Dale Earnhardt Jr. mistake.  And they range from low level, blogging hack to 'Sr. Bleacher Report Analyst', and even a "Journalist" for the Charlotte Observer.  Thankfully, there are also sites like 88-Central, a NASCAR forum website where Junior and NASCAR fans can vent!

This weekend, as Kenseth's car, and points lead, went up in flames, the on-air personalities for ESPN simply pointed out that if the race were to finish as they were running Dale Earnhardt Jr. would be the new points leader.  That fact so aggravated the Junior haters that Charlotte Observer writer, and blogger at ThatsRacin.com, Jim Utter tweeted "Can we wait until the race is over before we crown Dale Junior champion?", which he followed with "Dale Junior is NOT the former, current or future points leader."  Sounds like a particularly impartial NASCAR journalist.

As blogger Jay Busbee wrote in his Yahoo Sports blog, "From The Marbles", the Junior haters are having to "dig deeper."  Some of them are flat speechless, choosing to hold their tongue while praying for a misstep on which to pounce.  Some, not unlike Mr. Utter, are in apparent denial.

Oh, and for the Over88ted.com site?  They have a clock that counts how long it has been since driver 88 has won...  It did not get updated after Michigan, surprisingly enough.  Instead it clicks on, like a town clock above a deserted town square.  It's funny what jealousy can do to people...

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Excited, Kind, And Snide: Reactions To Junior's Michigan Win

It is always funny to me to sit back and watch the reactions after each race.  Depending on who wins and how the win occurs you will have any number of reactions from drivers, TV personalities, fans and writers.  Whether its Jimmie Johnson winning after dominating all day or David Reutimann snagging a lucky win, there are always people who will congratulate and those that will attempt to downplay the event.

This Sunday, of course, is no different.  As NASCAR's most liked driver was using up the ample amount of rubber left on his tires on the front stretch, there were all sorts of reactions taking place.  Announcers and NASCAR officials were glad, if not relieved, that the story line had ended in a way that will benefit the sport.  Drivers, for the most part, were congratulatory of a competitor who has been working hard for a win.  And fans were going crazy in the stands, infield, and at home.

Yet, at the same time, some were not so happy.  One particular driver felt the need to remind everyone that the next day was still a Monday and that God Himself had not spoken.  Tony Stewart, probably tired from racing for a few hours, was obviously short (pun intended) with reporters after the race.  His sentiment was that just because everyone wanted a win for Dale Jr. did not mean that he and the other drivers had to make it easy for him.  Good point, Tony, and one that I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would agree with.  To my knowledge, he has never asked Mr. Stewart to pull over and allow a pass.  Not only that, aside from getting around Dale Jr. on a restart during Sunday's race, Stewart did not have much opportunity to see the front of Dale Jr.'s car.  Perhaps he just enjoyed the paint scheme on the rear bumper.

Stewart was not the only person who was less than impressed with the win.  Many fans, and writers, hate the attention that Earnhardt Jr. gets, how TV analysts always mention him, and how devoted his fans are.  They see him as overrated and only in the sport because of his late father, 7 time Champ, Dale Earnhardt.  Are they right?  Not if you look at facts and numbers, but they are taking a purely emotional view, as are those that believe Dale Jr. can do no wrong.

A particular writer, Mr. Norris McDonald, a blogger for Wheels.ca whose posts appear on the Toronto Star website, is particularly unimpressed with Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He as much as said in his latest NASCAR piece, "Was Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Win A Fluke?", that a monkey could have driven better than Junior in the past four years and that perhaps the only way to explain Earnhardt's win on Sunday is to call it a fluke.  Was it a fluke: an accident, a break, a stroke of luck or a coincidence?  Twelve top 10's and six top 5 finishes in 15 races...  Make your own decision.

Either way, Earnhardt Jr. will be taking one less question this week.

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Letarte Helping Dale Jr., From Start To Finish

With many people questioning the move by Steve Letarte, Crew Chief for the #88 Chevy driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr., late in Sunday's race at Pocono Raceway to take fuel rather than gamble for a win, I just thought I would underscore some reasons Letarte is making the right decisions for the #88 driver.  Although mistakes are made on a weekly basis by every, yes, every team, the overall direction of Letarte's team is in the right direction.  In fact, some issues Earnhardt has had for several years have been fairly well solved.

For one, Junior has had an issue with qualifying for quite some time.  I don't think it is totally because he has not had good setups, and I know it is not for lack of power.   When he began driving for Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt Jr. had a average starting position of 10.3, the best season average of his career.  However, after the one win that year (at Michigan, his last win, 4 years ago this week) finishes began to taper off, finishing outside the lead lap in five of the ten Chase races. 

After Earnhardt's confidence in himself and the #88 team began to go away, so did his qualifying attempts.  Over the next three years his starting average was 22.2, 19.0, and last year 19.6, which were out of character for Dale Jr., whose career average is 16.4.  This year, Dale Jr. has put up good qualifying numbers almost every week.  In fact, he has only two starts outside the top 20.  Compare that to last year when, in the first 14 races, he had only three starts inside the top 20. 

I thoroughly believe that the primary reason for the change in qualifying success has been confidence.  Confidence that his grip will hold when entering a corner at 160 mph, confidence that he has a crew chief that has listened to his feedback and adjusted accordingly, and confidence that if he gives his 100%, so will his team.

That confidence is the main reason I think Letarte chose to pit and take fuel in a late race caution on Sunday.  Dale Jr. himself pointed out to Letarte that he would not be forgiven if the #88 car ran out of fuel.  In later interviews, Earnhardt Jr. alluded to the fact that running out of gas would have ruined his confidence, the team's focus, and the upward direction of the #88 team as a whole.   I agree.

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Does Gordon Have Time To Make Chase?

With only 3 top 10 finishes in the first 13 races of the 2012 season, Jeff Gordon is having, by far, the worst start to a season that he has had in his career.  Never before has he had so few top tens thus far into the season, including his rookie year.  He has had loose wheels, flat tires, started wrecks and got sucked into them.  I am sure the 24 team has gone through every spare good luck charm in their hauler by now.

Until 2012, Gordon has made the Chase in every year except 2005, the second year of the Chase, which he finished 11th in the points standings.  If he were to miss the Chase this year it would be only the third time in his twenty year career. 

The grinding thing for the 24 team has to be that they have had good runs, challenging for and leading races.  In fact, he has led almost as many laps in 2012 as he did in that whole 2005 season when he won 4 races on the path to that 11th place season finish.  Everything that could have gone wrong, has.  For the Dupont team of Gordon and Gustafson, Mr. Murphy has proven his law almost every weekend.

The scary fact for Gordon, at this point, is that he is 94 points out of 10th place.  With 13 races left before the Chase field is set, that would mean a gain of 7.4 points on 10th to be in the top 10 by Richmond.  Gordon is great, don't get me wrong, but it is hightly unlikely, especially since he currently has more monkeys on his back than live in the San Diego Zoo.

Gordon's best bet is to make it into the top 15 and get at least two wins, possibly three.  Currently he would have to beat the win total of Brad Keselowski (2), Kasey Kahne (1), and Ryan Newman (1).  I believe at least one of these three will be in the top 10 by Richmond, and since Keselowski is currently closest, 2 wins may just be enough to make the 2 extra Chase slots.

One thing is for certain: if those pesky monkeys ever fall off the rear deck lid of the 24, watch out Sprint Cup Series!  Gordon is running as well as he has since his great '07 season and should he make one of the two extra Chase slots due to wins, the rest of the Chase field should be on notice, he could well be the 'Tony Stewart' of 2012. (Recall that Stewart had 0 wins heading into the 2011 Chase and felt like they did not deserve to make the Chase, yet won 5 races and won the Championship.)

All of the above said, this week we are going to Pocono, a track known for killing engines, gas mileage grief, and surprise rain winners.  With so many pitfalls around the triangle track, is this the week for Gordon to mount a comeback?

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I Have My Tickets, How About You??

With every NASCAR season their is plenty of complaints to go around.  Some years there are complaints about one make having an advantage over another, some years there are complaints about too much domination by one team.  In 2012 there have been no shortage of complaints, by commentators, analysts, drivers, and especially fans.

People have been complaining about how long the races are, how long the season is, how uncompetitive the races have been and about knowing just what brought out the debris cautions.  One definitely concerning complaint has been where are all the fans...  I haven't seen a race this year and thought, "Wow, how did they pack all those people in there." 

Well, NASCAR fans, there is one certain way to get over the complaining about everything NASCAR: get to the track!  Yes, I said go to a race!  Nothing makes me less concerned about how crooked the cars look going down the straightaway than actually trying to see them because they are going so fast.  The best way for me to forget about how much I can't stand a particular NASCAR on air personality is to not be able to hear anything but the roar of 43 cars (at the beginning of the race, obviously) flying past me.  And the only way to care less about the semantics of the sport, how to grow the viewing audience, and what tracks need less races, is to remember first hand exactly why you fell in love with the sport.

Don't get me wrong, if you have read any of my other posts you know I love to tell my opinion about every aspect of the sport.  It just seems to me that there are too many fans today that would rather complain about NASCAR than brag about it.  Has anything changed?  Yes, of course things have, but there are still 43 drivers giving it everything while riding 200 mph a foot from a concrete wall.  There are still pit crews dodging cars driving 45 - 55 mph down pit road.  And no matter how much some of you bemoan the sport, you still get on the edge of your seat when your driver is slinging it 3 wide on a restart.

Yes, NASCAR needs to hear every point of view and should continue to find ways to keep the fans happy, but the rest of us need to take a step back and remember why we love the sport: the screaming fans, the smell of burning rubber, the car coming out of turn 4 with the right rear sliding out from under it.  I, for one, am ready for my reminder.

I will be going to the July race at Daytona International Speedway, which will be my first race in over 4 years.  It has been a long cold winter, indeed.  I will try to listen out for anyone complaining about the new points system during the race, not likely to hear them though.

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Dale Jr. Reaches New Level Of Consistency

All the speculators thought this weekend was the week.  Hendrick was to get their 200th win and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was to break his losing streak and make all of Junior Nation happy once again.  Sometimes things just don't work out the way you plan.  However, Dale Jr. can be thrilled with his 9th place finish for another reason!

Dale Earnhardt Jr's top 10 finish at Talladega marked his 8th in the first 10 races of this season which is the first time he has ever surpassed 7 top 10's to begin a season.  Junior has reached 7/10 three other times (2003, 2004, and 2008). 

An 80% top ten mark to start the NASCAR season has been reached 47 times in the Cup Era (since 1975), and has been accomplished by that year's champion 13 times out of 36 years.  However, that has not been accomplished since NASCAR went to the Chase format.  In fact, the last time it happened was one year prior when Matt Kenseth won the championship with only 1 win.

Dale Earnhardt started the season with 8 top tens in 7 of his seasons, including 6 championship years.  The next driver on the list was Darrell Waltrip, who made that mark 6 times, including twice of those being 9 top 10's out of 10 races.  Out of the other NASCAR greats, Terry Labonte did it 5 times, Jeff Gordon 3, Bobby Allison 3, Cale Yarborough 2, and Richard Petty 2 times.

Some notable drivers not on that list were Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and other current top drivers.  The best knowledge to take away from that fact is that these racers have been excellent in the past 8 years at turning it on from the summer on, especially during the Chase.  This has been an issue for Junior in the past as even though he has won at some Chase races, such as Talladega and Phoenix, he has not been able to put together 10 great races at the end of the season as he has now at the beginning.

In the mean time, Earnhardt Jr. and the 88 team as a whole are enjoying a building of momentum including 6 straight top ten finishes.  They are listed as the best team over the past 6 races, Junior has one of the highest average driver ratings he has had in his career, and people are looking for them to win week in and week out.  The most important thing driver 88 can do now is prove those people right...

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Danica Looking For Restrictor Plate Redemption

Danica Patrick's first full time season in NASCAR's Nationwide Series started out with a bang.  Literally!  Bang! Right into the wall.  She won the pole for the season opener at Daytona International Speedway and, considering her short restrictor plate resume, many people were optimistic that she could finish very high.  Everything was in place for her to become the story of the year in NASCAR.

Bang!

After leading some laps and trying to stay out of trouble she received an ill-timed, although well intentioned, push from her teammate, rookie driver of the 88, Cole Whitt.  Her damage from the turn 3 wall ended her day and put a cloud over her start to her full time NASCAR career.

Although there are many people who like Danica, many of them female fans and drooling males, there are droves who think she is overrated and not deserving of such a high profile opportunity in NASCAR, let alone all of the attention.  The never ending "Danica Watch" during the Daytona races by the sportscasters was enough to drive some detractors mad.  However, I have maintained that Patrick does have some strong tracks to make some statements at this year (nope, I'm not a female fan, and not drooling...currently).

Restrictor plate tracks are definitely a place I feel Danica can do surprisingly well.  In her two Daytona races last year she averaged a 12th place finish and even led 13 laps in the summer race.  Although many were concerned with how she would react to the close quarters racing with bumps and shoves a plenty, Patrick has adapted fairly well to NASCARS high speed tracks.  Considering how she has adapted at Daytona, February's race not withstanding, one should think she would do well at Talladega, where handling is even less of a factor and the trioval area is much easier to navigate.

One thing is for certain, a good finish this week at Talladega would help Patrick forget the beginning of this 2012 season and possibly in, if not close to, a top 10 spot in the Nationwide standings.  No doubt, she should be much closer to the top 5, which is where her teammate, Cole Whitt is (6th).  Points aside, I would love to see her finish better simply to hear those that can't stand her complain about her coverage!

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Just A Number: Talladega 5/12

What do numbers really mean? Most of us talk about numbers in racing all the time but rarely look inside or behind those numbers. For instance, every member of Junior Nation has something with an 88 on it, but few know that the number 88 has been used by 5 champions (Darrell Waltrip, Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace, Bobby Allison, and Buddy Baker) and other racing greats such as Al Unser Sr., Ricky Rudd, and even Richard Childress. There is definitely a lot of history behind the 88.


With that said, there are many numbers being thrown around in NASCAR over the last few weeks that need to be looked at a bit closer. For one, the current Hendrick Motorsports losing streak is at 15 heading into the spring race at Talladega. Attached to that number is the fact that HMS is still looking for its 200th win.   The last time HMS had a 15 race losing skid was a stretch from late 2002 to early 2003 when Gordon won at Martinsville.  Interesting tidbit: the race before Gordon broke the losing streak was Talladega, and the winner was DEI driver Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Many are saying that this week is when several streaks will be broken, including Junior's losing streak, HMS's losing streak, and HMS's 200th win will be posted.  I am not certain, nor should anyone be, due to the totally random nature of Talladega.  I do thing, however, that HMS has a better chance of winning than any other team.  For instance, in the 16 races at Talladega from 2000 to 2007, 11 of the wins came from Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson.  In fact, the three of them have a total of 13 wins at the track.  Therefore, the return to a more "pack-like" style of racing at the restrictor plate tracks will suite these drivers well.

It is important, though, to look at the cause behind the 15 race losing skid for HMS.  I will leave the Junior winless streak for a book as it is too much for a little article.  I believe that although the strength of Roush and Gibbs is partly the cause, there are some issues at HMS that have left the door open for other teams.  First, the relationship between Johnson and crew chief Knaus at the end of last season was cool at best.  They both knew they were about to lose the Sprint Cup for the first time in 6 years and neither relished the thought.  Along with some time and space (from each other) in the off season also comes a few missteps in the new season.

Second, the new teams that were formed for the 88 and 24 last year are still ironing out everything.  Although Gordon had some strong runs last year, as did Junior, the two teams are close, but not yet at their full potential.  And third, the 5 team should be sponsored by a Mr. Murphy.  His law has governed almost every race for Kasey Kahne this year.

Although these teams ALL have their issues, it is just a matter of time before one of them visits victory lane.  In fact, I feel certain that all four, even Kahne, will win races this year, most likely multiple races.  The question for this week is will the magic number be 2 or 1.  Will it be one driver's ability to pick lanes and build momentum, or will a team of two drivers have to win this week?

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Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

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Appeal Turns Hendrick Week From Bad To Good

Although prospects for Hendrick Motorsports is always good at Bristol Motor Speedway, especially with 5 time Bristol winner, Jeff Gordon, Hendrick luck went downhill as the race went along last weekend.  First, early in the race, Kasey Kahne was knocked out of contention in a pile up in the top ten.  Then later in the race, Gordon's left rear tire was cut down after minor contact from Dale Earnhardt Jr., a teammate, no less.  Then to top things off, as Dale Jr. was running at the back of the top 5 and looking for a possible top 3, the 88 team received a speeding violation which dropped them to a 15th place finish for the day.

Johnson, the only Hendrick car to finish in the top 10 (9th), salvaged his day after early damage from the Kahne wreck by slowly taking what he could get.  After a few weeks of fines, points taken away, crew chief suspension and on track troubles, Johnson was probably glad to post a top 10 and go home.  With one more opportunity for appeal to the judgement NASCAR handed down for their Daytona violation, off track preparation to get the 48 back on track to compete for a 6th Sprint Cup was, no doubt, in high gear.

Well, thanks to the appeal judgement by John Middlebrook, Johnson will not have to go 6 races without crew chief Chad Knaus.  Although he and car chief Ron Malec will face a probationary period, their track privileges will remain in tact for now.  Johnson will also regain the 25 championship points that were taken after Daytona, which, along with his 9th place finish on Sunday, will bring him to 12th in the early season standings. 

Although a lack of wins for the Hendrick stable just four races into the 2012 season is hardly a reason for concern, with much invested over the off season into each of the teams, some dividends are probably expected soon.  Most people probably did not expect the new 5 team of Kahne and Francis to exit the gate with wins, but becoming the weekly appointment for the first caution flag has to be aggravating.  Also, some results from the 24, which started 2011 hot, and the 88 that many people feel is getting close, will be expected soon, especially with Martinsville and Texas just around the corner.

For now, the Hendrick family will have to be happy knowing that everyone will be packing to go to California for this weekend.

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Will Earnhardt Jr. And Letarte's 2012 Achilles Return?

One day after finishing the first ever nightime Daytona 500, after racing all night, fire balls and all, NASCAR's Sprint Cup teams are loading up the cars to start the "rest of the season."  As the Daytona 500 is NASCAR's "Super Bowl", it is different than the rest of the season and often produces winners that may stumble during the rest of the early season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and his crew chief Steve Letarte begain their first season last February with a pole award for the Daytona 500 and if their primary car had not been wrecked would have had a good 500 finish to go along with it.  They did not start the next several races as well, however.  Over the next 9 races, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would start in the top 20 only once.  In fact, over those 9 races, team 88 would average a starting spot of 26th.

During that time span, Earnhardt and Letarte would hone their communication skills.  Letarte would better learn how Earnhardt wanted his cars to handle, and Earnhardt would learn what information Letarte would need to make the cars better.  The two would continuously better the car throughout the races and made some good finishes.  However, they were constantly begining well behind the leaders and having to work hard to get those finishes.

By late season, the 88 team had made good progress on starting positions, averaging a 14th place start over the final 10 races of the season.  Although they did not get the finishes they hoped for during the Chase, the 88 team was definitely unloading better cars that were better prepared for the race weakend.

The question the 88 fans must be asking themselves heading into this Phoenix weekend is will team "Earntarte" pick up where they left off or will they have to rebuild their foundation.  If Junior and Letarte can come out this weekend and next with cars that are fast from the hauler and comfortable for the driver, team 88 could get a great start on the 2012 season.

Yes Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a great Daytona 500, and although many Junior fans can't wait for the next plate track for the 88 to flex its muscle, the meat of the season lies in the 1 mile and the 1.5 mile tracks and there is where the path to competing for a championship lies.  We watched the 88 driver make soem good moves in the final laps of Daytona, but lets see what he has up his sleeves for the rest of the season. 

A couple weeks ago during media days Dale Jr. said he was eager to get to the non-restrictor plate tracks to see where they are as a team.  Well, here we are.  Bring it.

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Dale Jr. Lone Hendrick Horse In First Gatorade Duel

Of and on, during the Budweiser Shootout Saturday night and during Daytona 500 qualifying, you could hear announcers and commentators talk about how the racing for this years 500 will be different: a combination of pack and tandem racing.  Many have suggested that the change could benefit some of the more traditional restrictor plate racers, such as Dale Earnhardt Jr. who had much early career success at restrictor plate tracks.

Junior may be glad to see the change for Sunday's race, but he is likely to be relieved with the change going into Thursday's duel qualifying.  Out of the four Hendrick Motorsports cars preparing for the Daytona 500, Earnhardt Jr. is the only one that will be in the early qualifying race.  As the duel lineups are set by qualifying, odds in the early race and evens in the late race, Earnhardt entered the early lineup with a 3rd place qualifying effort.  The other Hendrick cars, Gordon 6th, Johnson 12th, and Hendrick newcomer Kahne 24th, will all be in the later duel.

One other plus this year is that Junior qualified so well.  Although Earnhardt Jr has qualified well for the Daytona 500 before (he has one pole), the stout showing by the teams with Ford engines had most people feeling as though the Fords had the pole locked up.  Apparently, the changing winds that had been pushing the cars around all afternoon worked somewhat to Earnhardt's advantage, because coming through turn 3 and 4 he began to pick up steam and rose from 5th to almost 2nd on the speed tracker.  Also I am sure Earnhardts knowledge and experience at the track helped him find a little speed.

Whether Earnhardt Jr wins the Daytona 500 or another more traditional pack racer like Gordon, it is safe to say that after the showing on Saturday night that the product of NASCAR's changes will be a wild finish.  No doubt there will be pack racing, and like it or leave it there will be small bursts of tandem racing.  I guess its a little of each and a whole lot of speed.  If you don't love Daytona, you don't love racing.

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