Winning Races Is More Important In Search For Cup

Prior to NASCAR making recent changes to their points structure, many people, fans and drivers alike, made a plea to make winning more imperative to win the Sprint Cup.  Many said the added points for wins entering the Chase just was not enough.  Well, apparently the changes NASCAR made has worked.

For the past nine years (2005-2013) the NASCAR champion has had a season win total of 5 or more.  The last time a champion had less than 5 was in 2004 when Kurt Busch won the championship with 3 wins.  Of course, much of the Chase came about after the 2003 season when Kenseth won the Cup with only 1 win.  The average win total of the champion from 1999-2004 was 4.2.

With Johnson totaling 6 wins this season on his way to his 6th championship, the average win total for the champion since 2004 is 6.1. 

Drivers and teams alike are striving more to gain wins through the summer stretch to amass larger bonus point totals heading into the Chase.  In seasons past, teams would be more likely to be conservative through the summer in order to maintain their standing heading into the final stretch of the year. 

Yes, every driver want's to win, but no driver is going to press a 10th place car to win, chancing a bad finish, unless he thinks it is worth the risk.  In years past, it was much more worth it to maintain a solid foundation for an end of the year run for the title.

Not every result anticipated by NASCAR after their changes to the points system has come to fruition, but it looks fairly safe to say that their will be no more 1 win champions.

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2012: In With A Bang, Out With A Kes

NASCAR's 2012 Sprint Cup season is over and gone, but before we begin to speculate about what may be for 2013, lets take one last look at the wild ride that was the 2012 season.

The 2012 season story began with several before/after stories.  To begin, Kyle Busch, a perennial threat with the ability to win every week, won the Budweiser Shootout.  Many people would have thought the 18 bunch could have put together a strong run this year, but shortly into the season their wheels would fall off.  He did manage a points win at Richmond, but that would be all for him in 2012, his lowest win total since 2007.

The next before and after story would have to be the before and after photos of Daytona International Speedway after Juan Pablo Montoya played demolition derby with a jet dryer.  Fortunately nobody was hurt, but the ensuing fire and inspection of the track caused the Daytona 500 to end well into the night.

Another early season story we saw was Matt Kenseth's dominance.  He won the Daytona 500 and ended up the points leader by mid season, but his contract talks with Roush Fenway Racing fell apart.  Probably the largest blunder RFR has made, Kenseth ended up signing to drive for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, effectively ending the teams ability to race for the 2012 championship.

Returning to challenge for the Sprint Cup points lead this year was driver 88, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  After beginning the year with a large stretch of top 10 runs, he finally returned to victory lane at Michigan with a dominating performance.  Although he did reach the points lead briefly during the summer, his season slowed after an initial concussion at a Kansas tire test in August, then totally stopped with a second concussion and ensuing 2 week break at Talladega. 

One of the most entertaining stories of the season was the tension and on-track altercation between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer.  After consistent contact between the 15 and 24 for a couple races, Gordon finally had all he could handle and wrecked Bowyer during the final laps of the Phoenix Chase race, effectively ending Bowyer's chances at winning the championship.  The ensuing melee in the garage area brought about probations and fines a plenty and added to the drama when the two drivers finished first and second in the season ending race at Homestead.  I doubt the two will be drafting partners at Daytona come February.

The final story of the season came down to Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson.  Many people wondered whether the young driver could handle the pressure and hold back the five time champion for the 2012 Sprint cup, but as the end of the Chase grew closer, it was Johnson, Knaus, and the 48 crew that did not stand up to the pressure.  Keselowski obtained the points lead after a misstep by the Lowe's team at Phoenix and did not let it go.

The stories of the 2012 season were plenty and were fun to follow.  There were great races, a good Chase, and even some altercations in the garage.  Here's hoping the 2013 season will rise to the occasion.

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On Your Mark!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 6th-12th

Now that all of the jockeying for a Chase spot is over, the attention of twelve drivers will turn toward the final ten races of the year.  As the Chase is complete with downforce tracks, a restrictor plate track, a short track, a concrete track, a flat track, and the one of a kind Homestead, a well rounded racer should do well.  However, with only 10 races to go, and every point important, a driver with the ability to finish well every week will be hard to beat as well.

12th - Jeff Gordon: Gordon made his way into this year's Chase with a great finish at Richmond after struggling early.  Although this team needed help from a bad finish by the 18 team to make the Chase, don't count them out easily.  Gordon is a 4 time champ, is the most winning active driver, and is always capable of hitting a hot streak.  Gordon averages a 12.2 place finish at the 10 tracks and has 31 wins on them.

11th - Kasey Kahne: The 5 team made the Chase with Kahne in their first year together due, in large part, to Kahne's strong wins early in the season.  Although Kahne has not been unstopable during the summer, he has maintained a strong team and his two wins solidified their Chase spot.  Kahne has never excelled at the Chase, his best finish being 8th, but he has also not competed in the Chase in a Hendrick car.  Kahne has an average finish of 16.3 with 7 wins at the Chase tracks.

10th - Martin Truex Jr.: How this team made the Chase with such strong runs and did not win, I do not know, but nevertheless, they are in and looking for a win.  Truex has never finished in the top 10 in the Sprint Cup Series, but don't count this team out.  They have been consistent all season and should have a good showing.  Truex has an average finish of 15.7 with his only career win coming at the Chase track of Dover.

9th - Kevin Harvick: Will the 29 team's crew chief change make a big enough difference for them to have a productive Chase?  Only time will tell.  Harvick does have some unfinished business in the Chase after coming in third the past two years, but with zero wins on the year, finishing the season out with a couple of wins to head into 2013 may be a more realistic goal.  Harvick has an average finish of 13.7 and has 8 wins at the Chase tracks.

8th - Matt Kenseth: After being at the points lead for much of the season, Kenseth dropped to 8th due to only producing one win in the regular season.  Although the team said Kenseth's coming departure to Joe Gibbs Racing would not be a distraction, competitiveness has tapered off in the past few weeks.  Kenseth could do well in the Chase, but with RFR preparing for Stenhouse Jr. to take over that ride and Kenseth preparing commercialse for his new sponsor for next year (Home Depot), it is not likely.  Kenseth has an average finish of 14.8 and has 8 wins at Chase tracks.

7th - Dale Earnhardt Jr.:  Dale Jr. enters the Chase in 7th place, the exact same spot he finished last year.  Although he has an average finish of 16.6 at the Chase tracks, he has 10 wins on them.  He only posted one top 5 in last year's chase, but with an average finish of 6.1 on downforce tracks this season, his 2012 Chase is bound to be more productive.

6th - Clint Bowyer:  In his first year in a MWR Toyota, Bowyer makes the Chase as one of two MWR teams in the Chase.  Although many people thought he would not do as well in his first year at a "weaker" team, his old team, RCR, is only sending one car to the Chase.  Bowyer has some good tracks in the Chase and proved with his win last weekend at Richmond that he could be a force in the Chase outcome.  Bowyer has an average finish of 14.6 and 4 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Earnhardt Jr. Haters Are Fuming

After a week off and some relaxation, the NASCAR stars were back to action at one of the world's most loved tracks, Indianapolis.  With a dwindling amount of races left to the Chase cutoff, teams were looking to make a move and either gain bonus points to begin the Chase or to make their way into the Chase by way of victories.

At the top of the story pile, as usual, was Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He was looking to top his best Brickyard finish (6th), become only the second 'son' to win in a 'father/son' combination, to tie Jeff Gordon for most consecutive lead lap finishes in the Modern Era, and to further solidify himself near the top of the standings in preparation for the Chase.  Some 400 miles and a small amount of side-by-side racing later, Earnhardt Jr. finished the day completing 3 of his 4 goals.  Although his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, piloted the 48 to a dominating win, his 4th at Indy, Dale Jr. finished 4th and took over the Sprint Cup Series points lead after Matt Kenseth was collected in a late race collision. 

And the smoke begins.

Although Earnhardt Jr. has had a great season, by many measures his best ever, there have always been and will always be those who cannot stand the attention and following he garners.  Whether those people are former fans that had their feelings hurt by his poor performances from 2006-2010, or they are die hard Kyle Petty fans who only wish their 'son of a legend' favorite had the same ability, they will not be happy.  They are more than willing to pile-on criticism whether Junior is finishing in the top-5 or if he has a bad race and finishes outside the top-10.  They call him "Over88ted", under-talented, rookie, and more.  There is even an Over88ted.com, dedicated to pointing out every Dale Earnhardt Jr. mistake.  And they range from low level, blogging hack to 'Sr. Bleacher Report Analyst', and even a "Journalist" for the Charlotte Observer.  Thankfully, there are also sites like 88-Central, a NASCAR forum website where Junior and NASCAR fans can vent!

This weekend, as Kenseth's car, and points lead, went up in flames, the on-air personalities for ESPN simply pointed out that if the race were to finish as they were running Dale Earnhardt Jr. would be the new points leader.  That fact so aggravated the Junior haters that Charlotte Observer writer, and blogger at ThatsRacin.com, Jim Utter tweeted "Can we wait until the race is over before we crown Dale Junior champion?", which he followed with "Dale Junior is NOT the former, current or future points leader."  Sounds like a particularly impartial NASCAR journalist.

As blogger Jay Busbee wrote in his Yahoo Sports blog, "From The Marbles", the Junior haters are having to "dig deeper."  Some of them are flat speechless, choosing to hold their tongue while praying for a misstep on which to pounce.  Some, not unlike Mr. Utter, are in apparent denial.

Oh, and for the Over88ted.com site?  They have a clock that counts how long it has been since driver 88 has won...  It did not get updated after Michigan, surprisingly enough.  Instead it clicks on, like a town clock above a deserted town square.  It's funny what jealousy can do to people...

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Is Kenseth's 2012 A Replay Of Edwards In 2011?

Another Sprint Cup season for Roush Fenway Racing and again they have a couple of drivers in serious contention to win the Sprint Cup Championship.  Last year, Carl Edwards started the season strong.  He won at Las Vegas and quickly rose to the top of the Sprint Cup points standings.  This year, both Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth have had the points lead, which is currently Kenseth's.

However, soon conversations in 2011 began to focus on the fact that Carl Edwards was a man without a contract.  His contract with RFR was to end and the finish of the 2011 season, and much speculation was given to the possibility of him leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing.  For weeks reporters would ask Carl if he would be driving a orange toyota in 2012, and for weeks they would get his patented smile and a kind comment about RFR working on a contract.

The questions were soon answered as the summer began to end, and Edwards and the 99 crew were able to finish the season out with a tie for the points lead which resulted in a second place finish (due to a tie-breaker rule.)  However, Edwards did not dominate any more races and had no wins, in the Chase or otherwise, after his one early-season win at Las Vegas.  Had he won ONE more race he would have won the Championship.  Period.

Now, in 2012, rumors have been swirling around Kenseth's future.  His RFR contract is over at season's end, and many have wondered if he would leave his long-time home.  Now, this week Roush reports that defending Nationwide Series champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be replacing Kenseth at RFR in the 2013 season.  Will Kenseth be driving a Toyota in 2013?  Will he bring Ford back to Penske Racing?  We will likely know by week's end.

What we do know is that for a second year in a row, Roush has a driver who is hot and contending for a championship, yet they are unsure about their future.  Yes, Edwards did have a successful year in 2011, but few would doubt that he could have won another race had contract talks been completed prior to the 2011 season, which would have led to his first championship.  Add on top of that, Kenseth will be dealing with going to a new team, who will be his crew chief, who will be his sponsor, etc, and the likelihood that the 17 will be celebrating after Homestead becomes low.

Either Roush has the worst timing and luck in the NASCAR garage, or someone seriously needs to question their wisdom about personnel management.  Had Edwards won the 2011 championship, sponsorship and money woes would have undoubtedly been less of a strain in 2012, and he may have kept the Cup another year.

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Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

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Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


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Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Backed Into A Corner

With only 8 races left until the Chase cut off, Dale Earnhardt Jr. finds himself backed into a corner once again. In the past 4 races he has watched his name slide from 3rd in the points to 8th, only 21 points inside the top 10, and his has gone from contending for wins, to not cracking the top 10.

Of course, being bitten by the bad luck bug has definitely not helped. Through the first 15 races Earnhardt had finished on the lead lap in all but two, however, in the last three races he has matched that same amount and wrecked to the finish in Daytona. A blown engine, caught up in a wreck, and a blown tire in three races. If luck is a lady, she’s been rather spiteful to the 88 lately.

Now I’m not saying that he was running well in those three races. He hates Infineon, hates tandem racing, and had never raced at Kentucky, and all three showed. Although he had a strong car at Daytona, he did not dominate there or even challenge for the top 10 at the other two.

Had his races not ended the same way, however, you would be looking at about 40 more points of a cushion on 11th place in the points. That would probably have put him in the “practically in” category, which is where I believe Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth are. By “practically in” I am referring to the top 10. If you look at the wild card, you would probably include Jeff Gordon, who has two wins, since all of the others behind him only have one. Either way, I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would like to have his place in the Chase solidified, and soon.

The prognosis of him being “in” sooner, rather than later, is not great. At the 8 remaining tracks, Junior has 6 wins, but all of those wins are at the last 4 before the Chase. The first 4, Loudon, Indianapolis, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, are challenges for him for sure. At both Indy and the Glen he has an average finish of 22nd, and at Loudon and Pocono he has been hot and cold. The little encouragement he has for the coming 4 races is that 3 of the 4 are similar tracks in that they have flatter corners. That is encouragement due to the fact that he finished 6th at the first Pocono race this year and 4th in his last visit to Loudon.

Earnhardt must come out of the corner swinging, though, as the only one of the 4 drivers immediately below him in points has a worse average finish at Loudon. That, even, is no consolation, since Clint Bowyers 16th place average there does not paint as complete a picture as his two wins.

I would speculate that Junior’s chances for a win at Bristol, Atlanta, or Richmond are high only if he does either great or poorly in the next 4 races. If he is still just inside the top 10, it may be too much of a temptation to be slightly less aggressive. However, if he is locked or almost locked into the Chase, or just outside the top 10, he will either be able to be aggressive or will have to be out of necessity.

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Who Will Be The Real “Gunslinger” This Weekend?

Entering the seventh race of the year, many of the top tier teams in the Sprint Cup Series are getting hungry for their first race of the season. All of the teams in the top ten who are looking to win have had previous success at Texas Motor Speedway, except Juan Pablo Montoya, who has made great strides on downforce tracks in the past year. No doubt, Texas may hold more beating and banging that last weeks race at Martinsville.

Of course, many drivers tend to be a little more gingerly with their car when they are entering a corner at over 200 mph, but they have also never been in a season quite like this one. With the change in the points system this year, drivers are now seeing what Kevin Harvick is experiencing; if you can get two or three wins early in the year, you can spend the rest of the season preparing for Jimmie Johnson and the Chase. Therefore, be prepared for sparks to fly under the lights Saturday night!

The number one hungry driver that would like to notch his first win this weekend, is probably Jimmie Johnson. He has had a couple of races slip by him to this point, and he is eager to finish anywhere ahead of the 29. Don’t get me wrong, Johnson keeps a cool exterior, and hardly seems rushed to get to victory lane. However, the main thing any driver hates to see during a string of success is a loss of momentum. Be sure that Johnson will attempt to flex some muscle this weekend to reassert his dominance.

Surely a top driver on most lists to expect tough racing from this weekend should be Dale Earnhardt Jr. He has been in or near the top ten at the end of every race this year except at Daytona where he was involved in a late race wreck. Top that off with the fact that he had to watch a black 29 car pull away from him with a lap to go last weekend, keeping him from gaining his first win at Martinsville and his first Cup win in 100 races. Earnhardt Jr. is beyond hungry, that along with his ability on fast tracks with tight racing, and he should be fun to watch this weekend.

One other top ten driver to keep an eye on this weekend would be Matt Kenseth. He has one of the best average finishes at Texas Motor Speedway, which since 2005 is an astounding average of 6th place. With his ability to sneak to the front in any race, he may be able to give Harvick a challenge for a late race lead change. Kenseth is not having a blockbuster season so far, but it has been solid. Not only that, his finishes are beginning to get better, and momentum may be paying him a visit.

At any rate, whether one of these drivers wins, or even if Harvick can pull off three wins in a row, there is bound to be some bent sheetmetal. Someone keep a good eye on Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton.


Be sure to follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Can Dale Jr. Pull A "Kenseth?"

It is odd how things work out in life. No two drivers' careers have been more connected than the careers of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth. They battled, and became friends, in the Nationwide Series (then the Busch Series) in which both had several wins and Earnhardt Jr. had two championships. They both moved up to the Cup series in 2000 when Kenseth won Rookie of the Year. Junior may have reached a Cup win first, but a few years later, Kenseth won a championship.

All of the links between their careers won't help Dale Earnhardt Jr. accomplish what only Kenseth has done: win the Daytona 500 from last place.

In 52 years, the Daytona 500 has only been won from 43rd once, two years ago by Matt Kenseth. Although he is credited as starting 39th, Kenseth had to pull back to 43rd due to going to a backup car after a wreck in his Gatorade duel. In the 500 miles that followed the start, Kenseth raced his way into contention and came away with, no doubt, one of the most memorable victories in his career.

Prior to Kenseth's win, only three times had the Daytona 500 been won from a starting position lower than 20th. Kevin Harvick won from 34th in '07 in a finish with Mark Martin that any NASCAR fan should remember. In 1978, Bobby Allison won his first of three Daytona 500 wins from the 33rd position. And in 1975, the late, great Benny Parsons won from the 32nd position.

There is little doubt Junior had a better chance to win from his original starting position: the Daytona 500 has been won 8 times from the pole. Perhaps this is what pushed the ESPN PTI commentators to suggest a "fix." However, I doubt most commentators have taken Dale Jr. off their list of possible winners. In his seven restrictor plate starts of 30th or worse, his average finish has been 14th, but two of the seven were top 3 finishes. Without a doubt, if he avoids accidents, which has been difficult for him so far this year, he can win and be competitive.

Perhaps, if nothing else, this may silence those who would say that any success Dale Earnhardt Jr. has is pre-ordained by NASCAR and handed to him on a silver plate.

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #3- Roush Fenway Racing

Roush Fenway Racing finished the 2010 season with a bang.  This team started 2010 with 19 top-10s in the first 10 races then slid quickly with only 9 top-10s in the second 10 races.  As the confusion wore off of the new Ford engine, however, RFR quickly came around and finished with 17 top-10s in the Chase, with 8 of those being top-5s and 3 being wins.

For David Ragan, 2011 has a fork in the road, one he will reach around July or August.  In 2010, Ragan had 15 finishes between 11th and 20th, yet only 3 in the top 10.  Ragan did have more consistent runs down the stretch, but not quite the caliber that Jack Roush will want from a long term investment.  If Ragan does not start breaking into the top ten and come close to qualifying for the Chase, he will be looking for a new ride come September.

Greg Biffle had a 2010 that was similar to the rest of his career: great finishes and horrible finishes.  In the final 20 races, Biffle finished 7 times in the top 5; and also finished 5 times 30th or worse.  So indicative of his hard driving style, of his 9 top 15 finishes in those 20 races, 7 were top 5's.  If Biffle could find some consistency in 2011 he could mount a championship run, but don't expect it.  Don't get me wrong, Biffle is a great driver, arguably one of the hardest chargers in the garage, but consistency just isn't his thing.

Speaking of consistency, Kenseth could be looking at another '03-like year in 2011.  His finishes of 2010 show a definite return of consistency, with 24 finishes in the top 15.  In fact, in the last 20 races, Kenseth finished outside the top 20 only twice.  However, a consistent year like '03 sadly will not achieve the same success in 2011 due to a need for dominance in the Chase, not just consistency.

No driver in the RFR stable is more ready to start 2011 than Carl Edwards.  After finishing the year with back to back wins, Edwards is eager for the opportunity to continue the streak.  2010 was a great year for Edwards, held back only by some miscues in the Chase and a poor start to the Summer.  If Edwards can start 2011 where he left 2010 and have a consistent year, he may be the best driver to compete with Jimmie Johnson next Fall, especially if he can get streaky.  His pair of wins in 2010 were the 5th time in his career that he had back to back wins.

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Look Out For Roush Fenway In 2011!

I am by no means a Roush Fenway Racing fan, but they may just be the team to beat come February. Anyone reading this may think I have been drinking, but hear me out.

I agree, 2010 has been dismal for RFR: only 4 wins this year and 0 prior to August. Only 2 RFR drivers won: Bifle and Edwards. Many times this year, they all looked like they were down 10 hp or something would go wrong late in the race. Nothing was clicking. Crew chief changes and angry teammates were the norm.

However, the final 3 races show some definite promise. The average finish for all four drivers over the final 3 races was 9.25. Out of 12 finishes, only 3 were outside the top 10. The new success was across the board. That spells momentum for RFR going into 2011.

Whether it's figuring out the newest Ford engine, team configurations starting to mesh, or just plain luck, look out for RFR teams in February.

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