Dale Jr's Best Start To A Season...

Prior to the start of the 2013 season, 2004 and 2008 stood out as the best seasons for Dale Jr. out of the gate.  Both seasons were important from different standpoints for Junior: 2004 was Junior's first real title challenge and 2008 was Dale Jr.'s first season with Rick Hendrick.

In '04, Junior started the season with wins at Daytona and Atlanta, a 5th place finish at Rockingham, and a 10th place finish at Darlington.  Although some may say Dale Jr. was better at being aggressive in his earlier seasons, he definitely wasn't as good at taking care of his equipment, which led to a few dissappointing finishes early and late in the season.

All in all, 2004 was a great year for Junior, but had he been able to finish the season the way he started we may all have been calling him a former champion.  His late season finishes of 33rd at Martinsville and Atlanta effectively removed him from the championship hunt.  Even a Phoenix win just before the end of the season couldn't bring him back.

With the 2004 season ending in "What might have been.." Dale Jr. lost his crew chief, Tony Eury Sr., to a "promotion" and began working with his cousing Tony Eury Jr.  Fifteen of Junior's nineteen Sprint Cup wins came with Tony Eury Sr., along with two Nationwide Series Championships.  Even though the '04 season began with promise, iit ended in a change that didn't go as well as many hoped.

The 2008 season, as in '04, began strong, with three top 5's and a top 10 finish.  Everyone was expecting Dale Jr. to show what he could do now that he was finally in Hendrick race cars and away from his stepmother.  The fan fare didn't last long, though, as frustration between he and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. grew from inconsistent finishes which gave way to poor finishes nearing season's end. 

Again, Dale Jr. was left frustrated and confused in the off season.  Soon after, he and cousin crew chief were separated again, and Junior began a long, cold era of his career.

This year, Dale Jr. has started out with 5 straight top 10 finishes, including 3 top 5's.  His average finish so far is 4.4, worlds better than any other season.  He has 47 laps led so far, 5 less than his season total for 2011, a season which he finished 7th in points. 

Dale Jr. is also the current point leader, a spot he has only held in 2 other seasons: 2004 and last year.  Only time will tell, however, if he can hold that spot nearing season's end.

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Get Set!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 1st - 5th

As the Chase quickly approaches, many drivers are getting ready to prepare for 2013.  They will not be "in the hunt", so they are either preparing with their team for a stronger run next year, or are preparing for a new ride to start speedweeks at Daytona.

The Chase drivers, on the other hand, are preparing to put their best foot forward on the first Chase race.  Not wanting to fall behind and give up a chance at a Championship, drivers will be looking to make statements at the 1.5 mile Chicagoland Speedway.  Whether they will step out ahead or not, these 5 drivers are starting out front on their way to the Sprint Cup:

5th - Greg Biffle: In many ways, 2012 has been a season of renewal for Biffle and the 16 team.  They have led more laps this year than any season since '06.  They have remained in or close to the top 3 in points for most of the regular season.  And the 16 team has not finished the season in the top 5 since 2008 and have never had an average finish better than 11.9 (their current average for the '12 season is 9.7).

To have a chance at winning the Sprint Cup, Biffle will have to produce on his strong suits, the 1.5 mile downforce tracks and the Monster Mile of Dover.  If he can pop of a win or two, look for him to be close to the top entering Homestead, a track where he has 3 wins.  The 'Biff' has an average finish of 15.9 and 10 wins at the 10 Chase tracks.

4th - Brad Keselowski: Making his second Chase appearance in just 3 full time Sprint Cup seasons, Keselowski has definitely made his place amoung the top tier drivers.  He has 3 wins this year and is more than capable of winning a few more prior to Homestead.  Along with his ability to stay up front, the 2 team has also shown that they and their driver are willing to do whatever is needed to win, a trait that may serve them well when the points battle gets close at the end.

The downside for the 2 team is that Keselowski only has good history at a few of the Chase tracks.  Don't get me wrong, he is more than capable of winning at all of them, he just has poor average finishes at most of them.  His strong tracks are definitely Talladega and Kansas.  Keselowski's average finish at the Chase tracks is 17.1 and he has 3 wins on those tracks.

3rd - Tony Stewart: This year Stewart is entering the Chase in 3rd and not quite as unsure as he was last year when he dominated the Chase with 5 wins.  However, although Stewart has more top 5's this year than the previous two, he only has two more top 10's than top 5's.  What that means is that if Stewart has a good car and a good setup, he can compete and will finish within sight of the lead.  If he does not, he is not getting to the top 10.  Translation: Stewart could break out with multiple wins, or he could struggle with poor setups.

Nobody, though, should count the 14 out of the Championship.  2011 should serve as plenty reminder that Stewart may be down but is never 'out'.  Stewart, after all, is known for being at mid-late season driver.  He does not, however, have Darian Grubb who helped him win the Cup last year.  Stewart has an average finish of 12.5 and 21 wins on the Chase tracks.

2nd - Jimmie Johnson: Another Chase and another attempt at a Championship for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew.  Johnson has shown this year, again, that he wins the big races, and once he is out front he is hard to catch.  Johnson has had three wins so far, and is unlikely to go winless in the Chase.  Johnson has NEVER gone winless in the final 10 races of the year in his Sprint Cup career.

Winning or not, Johnson cannot be counted out of the Chase picture.  He has plenty of ability to win, let alone his proven history with Crew Chief Knaus at the Chase tracks from which to draw information.  Johnson has an average finish of 10th and 31 wins at the Chase tracks.

1st - Denny Hamlin: After not being able to back up his 2010 performance last year, Hamlin has been able to slowly build this year to the point that he is the Chase frontrunner.  Hamlin has had an up and down 2012, but with a few wins and more consistently running at or near the front over the summer, Hamlin is hitting his stride at just the right time.

One of Hamlin's biggest strengths this year is the addition of last years Cup winning Crew Chief, Darian Grubb.  Grubb may well be out for some 'how do you like me now' and Hamlin would be more than happy to help him out.  What Hamlin will be sure to look out for is a momentum trip up like he had near the end of the 2010 Chase.  Hamlin has an average finish of 13.4 and 10 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Chase 2012: 'Outwit', 'Outplay', or 'Outlast'?

With this season's up and down nature, engine's blowing, and no clear dominator, this year's Chase could be an exercise in 'Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast'.  Although there is always a possibility of someone getting on a hot streak as Tony Stewart did late in last year's Chase, the field seems very level for those who are definitely in the Chase.

Each of the past several weeks there has been one or more of this year's contenders in trouble.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. wrecked in practice, in a race, and tore up a transmission.  Johnson never seriously contended at the Glen, then blew his engine within sight of victory lane at Michigan.  Kenseth or his team, or both, are apparently looking forward to next season.  And Keselowski is now following the Hendrick cars around drooling over their 'rear ends'.  Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

The way things are shaping up, the Chase is possibly going to be a case of who stays out of trouble, dodge's wrecks, steals one with stragegy, and keeps their engines running coming out ahead of the other contenders.  With only 10 races in the Chase, one DNF can easily end a driver's chance at the Sprint Cup, especially if there are one or two drivers who are cautious and lucky enough to stay 'clean' throughout the Chase.

One thing is for sure, the race to the Chase for those contending for the two wildcard slots will come down to outwit or outplay.  Should anyone of the drivers with one win snag another victory, it could be all they need, because none of those drivers look like they could run off a string of 2 or three wins right now.

As for how the Chase has historically played out, there have been a mixture of three plots.  In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2010, the Champion would win none or one race in the Chase, and effectively 'Outlast' the field.  In each of those years, a driver other than the eventual champ would win 2 or more races in the Chase, but one or more poor performances put them in a hole too deep to win.  In 2004, in fact, Jimmie Johnson had 4 Chase wins, but could only manage to climb back to second by season's end. 

In 2007, 2009, and 2011 the Champion 'Outplayed' the field.  In each of those years the eventual winner would snag at least 4 Chase races and simply dominate the competition to the point that sheer speed won out.  And in 2008 the Championship was won by a combination of 'Outwit', 'Outlast' and 'Outplay'.  In that year, three drivers had multiple Chase wins, and two had three wins in what ended up as a virtual slugfest to the finish.  Although Carl Edwards won 3 of the final 4 races, the points Johnson had amassed in his 3 wins gave him the cushion to keep Edwards at bay for the final races.

One driver you will hear commentators say does not have the ability to hit a hot streak during the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr.  His best showing in the Chase races was in 2004 where he won 2 races in the final 10.  The most promising news for the 88 crew is that his performance in the 1.5 mile tracks has been solid this year, which could translate into some success in the fall.

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NASCAR Goes (Off) Road Racing...

Road courses are like the Busch brothers to most NASCAR fans: either you love them or hate them.  They are much more technical, much more prone to fuel mileage strategy, and tend to favor a handful of drivers that have more experience road racing.  However, most NASCAR fans cannot discount the fact that when the cars are side by side, the opportunity for fender-banging, cut tires, and more 'gritty' racing is high.

Sunday afternoon was no different.  While much of the first half of the race was fairly inconsequential, with few lead changes and no real drama, the end of the race featured popular drivers spinning, side by side racing, and dirt flying in the air as Keselowski and Ambrose commenced an all-or-nothing dash to the checkered flag.

Both of the drivers offered to add to the paint job of the other's racecar on the final lap, yet neither wrecked the other, a result pointed out by Keselowski in his post race interview.  After the two of them made their way past Kyle Busch who was losing control after running through an oil slick laid down by the #47 of Bobby Labonte, they each ran off the road in the interloop.  After Keselowski regained the rear bumper of Ambrose, he gave a slight bump which allowed him to move to the left side of the #9  heading into the last corner, a right hander.  Ambrose then ran Keselowski up toward the wall on the exit of the corner, without making contact, giving himself the momentum to capture the checkered flag.

During the final few laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. spun along with Jeff Gordon, ending the hopes of top 10 finishes for both.  Busch (Kyle), who spun after contact with the #2, finished 7th.  Also, the race also saw problems for Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and more.

The race at Watkins Glen International generally has more action, mostly due to the sharp right-handed turn at the end of the front stretch, along with the tricky interloop on the back-stretch.  Both of these spots allow aggressive drivers to outbreak other drivers and get side by side, hoping to make it through the coming turn.

Whether you enjoy road racing and want more of these races or cannot stand them and prefer ovals any time, Sunday's race ended with a bang.

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How Do You Get Your NASCAR?

My how time changes.  We live in a world that never stops turning, constantly moving and ever changing.  I recall sitting down to watch a race on Sunday and listening intently to the prerace show, because that was the only "insider news" you could get.  Yeah there were newspaper articles and a couple select magazines that covered the sport, but for the most part the half hour or so prior to the green flag was where you saw the personalities behind the wheels and behind the pit wall.

Even prior to those days, races may or may not have been televised and even further still, the only NASCAR you could get was by rumor mill or by going to the race.  Imagine how daunting Jimmie Johnson would be if all you heard were tales of his wins and his five championships.  I would image kids would assume he were 10 ft tall and bullet proof.  Of course, some of his fans and even some on-air personalities currently think that way.

Today, NASCAR can get to you a plethora of ways.  You can get an instant NASCAR fix through Twitter, Facebook, or by surfing NASCAR sites on your smartphone.  You can also catch NASCAR shows on ESPN or even on the SPEED channel.

It never ceases to amaze me just how many fans who are die hard never access the inside information that can be had by following drivers, crew chiefs, spotters or even track personnel on Twitter and/or Facebook.  When I personally got on Twitter, I was shocked at how open and personable some of the drivers and team members were.  You literally could have knocked me over with a feather the first time I had a question answered by Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, or even Mrs. Harvick herself.

Personability and being able to relate to the sports stars is, in my opinion, of utmost importance if NASCAR is to expand its current fan base, reach new markets, and even fill the stands week in and week out.  Social media, to me, provides more insight into the sport than any other avenue.

So how do YOU get your NASCAR?  Do you use Twitter (if so give me a follow @the_Bumpdrafter) or Facebook?  Do you read multiple NASCAR blogs?  Tell us who you recommend following!

FYI: Some of my personal favorites on Twitter are the Harvicks, Jimmie Johnson, definitely Brad Keselowski, @NASCARCASM, and ESPN's Marty Smith among others.

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Who Will Get The Wild Cards?

With only 6 races remaining until the cutoff for the Chase after Richmond, the race for the two coveted wildcard spots is tightening up.  Although anything could happen between now and the finish under the lights at Richmond, the field is pretty well down to 5 drivers: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon.  Paul Menard and Joey Logano are close to Gordon in points totals, but neither of them have are currently headed in the right direction, so a 6 race swing in their favor is not likely.  Ambrose, always a possible winner at Watkins Glen, would need more than 1 win to make the spot from so far back, which is probably not going to happen either.

The 10th position in the points is currently occupied by Clint Bowyer, a solid 55 points ahead of 11th, Kyle Busch.  If anyone is capable of putting together a string of good finishes, let alone wins, to get into the top 10, Kyle Busch is that person.  However, lately Busch has been having trouble putting together 500 miles without blowing an engine, so making up an average of 9.2 points per race on Bowyer would be a tough order.

So who out of the 5 wild card contenders will gain a Chase entry?  Let’s look at the last 6 races: Pocono (this week), Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond.  Out of the 5 contenders, only 3 have wins: Busch (1), Kahne (2), and Newman (1).  I personally believe that 2 wins will get you in this year, a thought for which time is dwindling to disprove.  That means that Kahne will be in this year's Chase.  It also means that now we have 4 drivers contending for 1 spot.

Of the four I would definitely say that Busch has the best shot.  He has more points than the others (not by much) and only Gordon has more wins at the coming 6 tracks.  In fact, Busch is more of a lock than anyone to compete for the win at Richmond: his average finish there is 4.7.  That is in 15 visits, during which he only has 2 finishes OUTSIDE THE TOP 5.  That is ridiculous, so much so that I had to look at the stats twice. 

Although Carl Edwards is just behind Busch in the points, I don't give him much of a chance to make this year's Chase.  Edwards has no wins this year, has only 2 top 5 finishes, and has just received a Crew Chief change.  Yes, Edwards does have the best finishing average at these 6 tracks (out of these 4 drivers), but right now points won't help unless you have wins, and Edwards is not even knocking on the door.

Ryan Newman is has a chance at the final spot for two reasons: he has one win and he is always a threat to win at Richmond and Pocono, as he is good on flat tracks.  Newman’s chances, however, hinge on him winning and Busch not winning.  Newman is unlikely to pass Busch in points because, although he is only 15 back, his average finish at the 6 tracks lags behind Busch's.

Lastly we have Jeff Gordon.  Gordon is in need of a hot streak, something he has not seen in a few years.  Gordon is 24 points behind Busch, but without a win he is helpless.  Gordon needs at least one win to make the Chase this year, and at the remaining tracks he has 23 previous wins.  Although many would think of him as a threat at Watkins Glen, Gordon has 5 wins each at Pocono, Atlanta, and Bristol.  If Gordon could catch some luck and momentum at the same time, he is in, but that is a huge if.

I should add that Kasey Kahne should be relieved that his 2 wins is likely to put him over the threshold, as his average finish at the next 6 venues is a dismal 18.3, with Michigan being the only one with an average finish under 17th.

All in all, I would say that the race for the Chase should be coming down to a good show.  Between drivers trying to win their way in to the Chase and those looking for more bonus points, a few fenders are likely in for some damage, or at least we can hope...

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Earnhardt Jr. Haters Are Fuming

After a week off and some relaxation, the NASCAR stars were back to action at one of the world's most loved tracks, Indianapolis.  With a dwindling amount of races left to the Chase cutoff, teams were looking to make a move and either gain bonus points to begin the Chase or to make their way into the Chase by way of victories.

At the top of the story pile, as usual, was Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He was looking to top his best Brickyard finish (6th), become only the second 'son' to win in a 'father/son' combination, to tie Jeff Gordon for most consecutive lead lap finishes in the Modern Era, and to further solidify himself near the top of the standings in preparation for the Chase.  Some 400 miles and a small amount of side-by-side racing later, Earnhardt Jr. finished the day completing 3 of his 4 goals.  Although his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, piloted the 48 to a dominating win, his 4th at Indy, Dale Jr. finished 4th and took over the Sprint Cup Series points lead after Matt Kenseth was collected in a late race collision. 

And the smoke begins.

Although Earnhardt Jr. has had a great season, by many measures his best ever, there have always been and will always be those who cannot stand the attention and following he garners.  Whether those people are former fans that had their feelings hurt by his poor performances from 2006-2010, or they are die hard Kyle Petty fans who only wish their 'son of a legend' favorite had the same ability, they will not be happy.  They are more than willing to pile-on criticism whether Junior is finishing in the top-5 or if he has a bad race and finishes outside the top-10.  They call him "Over88ted", under-talented, rookie, and more.  There is even an Over88ted.com, dedicated to pointing out every Dale Earnhardt Jr. mistake.  And they range from low level, blogging hack to 'Sr. Bleacher Report Analyst', and even a "Journalist" for the Charlotte Observer.  Thankfully, there are also sites like 88-Central, a NASCAR forum website where Junior and NASCAR fans can vent!

This weekend, as Kenseth's car, and points lead, went up in flames, the on-air personalities for ESPN simply pointed out that if the race were to finish as they were running Dale Earnhardt Jr. would be the new points leader.  That fact so aggravated the Junior haters that Charlotte Observer writer, and blogger at ThatsRacin.com, Jim Utter tweeted "Can we wait until the race is over before we crown Dale Junior champion?", which he followed with "Dale Junior is NOT the former, current or future points leader."  Sounds like a particularly impartial NASCAR journalist.

As blogger Jay Busbee wrote in his Yahoo Sports blog, "From The Marbles", the Junior haters are having to "dig deeper."  Some of them are flat speechless, choosing to hold their tongue while praying for a misstep on which to pounce.  Some, not unlike Mr. Utter, are in apparent denial.

Oh, and for the Over88ted.com site?  They have a clock that counts how long it has been since driver 88 has won...  It did not get updated after Michigan, surprisingly enough.  Instead it clicks on, like a town clock above a deserted town square.  It's funny what jealousy can do to people...

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What You Missed In Daytona

After a few years of not attending a race and over a year of sharing my rants and raves here on this blog, I returned to Daytona this past weekend for the Coke Zero 400.  For weeks, I had readied everything with anticipation of a great weekend and up-close NASCAR, and Daytona did not disappoint.

First of all, the weather was beautiful.  Yes, Florida is hot in July, but there was a decent breeze for most of the afternoon that made tailgating a blast.  I have been to a Daytona race at which a few people were injured by a lightning strike, and a Daytona race that left most people sunburned and dehydrated.  This weekend was about as good as Florida can be in July.

As we have never really done hard core tailgating at Daytona, we had planned to eat at a local restaurant prior to entering the track.  Instead, we parked next to two Firefighters from Moultrie, GA, and a retired Army veteran and his wife from the Tampa, FL area.  They made certain to show my wife and I, and our two friends, exactly how tailgating is done NASCAR style.  They had grilled burgers, hotdogs, bratwurst, and corn, along with tents, chairs, radio, etc.  The most important thing they had were welcoming attitudes and plenty of conversation.  Since me and my friend are Firefighters, we had plenty to discus with the other Firefighters and had an awesome time.

I rambled on about all that to say this: NASCAR fans are amazing.  Whether you are a Junior fan or cheer for a Busch brother, they are willing to share their food and time with you.  If you have never tailgated NASCAR style, you should give it a try!

Also, I have shared on multiple posts about how much can be learned or experienced by following NASCAR and NASCAR personalities on Twitter.  This weekend I was able to join a "TweetUp", a meeting at the track of people who follow NASCAR on Twitter, all the way up to those who write about NASCAR in print and online media.  As there are often visitors, both drivers and otherwise, I was eager to see who would show.  The coordinator of the meetings, Jeff Gluck (motorsports editor at SBNation.com), had said there would be a big guest, and he did not lie.  A few minutes into a question and answer session with some Daytona administration personnel, in walks Train, who were scheduled to sing a prerace concert.  A few minutes later, Landon Cassill, driver of the #83 Burger King car, walks up right beside me to watch.  All because I follow some NASCAR people on Twitter.

NASCAR is a great sport folks, but NASCAR Nation totally rocks.  If you haven't experienced all of it, you should!  And for those of you who make it what it is, I thank you for another great experience!

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Is Rubbin' Still Racin'?

Rubbing is racing.  We have all heard it and 99% of us has said it on multiple occasions.  Since NASCAR began, quarter panels and bumpers were made to take a beating.  Different from the open wheel racing of Indycar, NASCAR promotes close racing and in many cases a gentle nudge is the only way to set up a pass.

This rough-neck racing has made for driver spats, fan fights, and many trips to the NASCAR hauler.  The whole while, NASCAR has expanded its following, multiplied its marketing, and carved its place among the top sports franchises in the world.

However, over the past few years, blatant wrecking and on and off track retaliation have followed NASCAR's famous "drivers, have at it" rule.  NASCAR has clarified and penalized yet most drivers have not quite taken the point.  This past week, especially in the Nationwide Series, has been case in point.  Drivers have opted to simply wreck someone out of the way rather than loosen them up and take the spot.

Perhaps they need to be reminded of "Harry Hogge's" quote from "Days of Thunder", the WHOLE quote.  He said, "No, no, he didn't slam you, he didn't bump you, he didn't nudge you... he *rubbed* you.  And rubbin, son, is racin'."  Not slamming, rubbing.

As much as it pains me to say, the best example of "rubbin" this past week had to have been Kurt Busch.  Yes, I said it, and yes it hurt.  He rubbed the bumper of Clint Bowyer's #15 Toyota on multiple occasions coming to the end of the race.  Although I waited for it to happen on every turn, he never punted him off course.  Yes, he did lose, but he did not lose what little bit of dignity he is trying to regain.  I don't know if he gained any fans on Sunday, but Kurt Busch definitely regained some respect from drivers and fans alike. 

Perhaps Busch has remembered one of Hogge's other quotes from the movie, "Oh he can drive. He can drive beyond the limits of the tires, the engine, the car or anything else. If the sum' b___ listened to me we wouldn't hardly ever lose a race!" 

I would be remiss if I did not include a quote for Jacques Villeneuve.  I wouldn't be surprised if Danica Patrick is heard on the radio at Montreal (road course) quoting "Russ Wheeler" with a " if he comes near me I'm gonna put him in the wall. Simple as that."

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Excited, Kind, And Snide: Reactions To Junior's Michigan Win

It is always funny to me to sit back and watch the reactions after each race.  Depending on who wins and how the win occurs you will have any number of reactions from drivers, TV personalities, fans and writers.  Whether its Jimmie Johnson winning after dominating all day or David Reutimann snagging a lucky win, there are always people who will congratulate and those that will attempt to downplay the event.

This Sunday, of course, is no different.  As NASCAR's most liked driver was using up the ample amount of rubber left on his tires on the front stretch, there were all sorts of reactions taking place.  Announcers and NASCAR officials were glad, if not relieved, that the story line had ended in a way that will benefit the sport.  Drivers, for the most part, were congratulatory of a competitor who has been working hard for a win.  And fans were going crazy in the stands, infield, and at home.

Yet, at the same time, some were not so happy.  One particular driver felt the need to remind everyone that the next day was still a Monday and that God Himself had not spoken.  Tony Stewart, probably tired from racing for a few hours, was obviously short (pun intended) with reporters after the race.  His sentiment was that just because everyone wanted a win for Dale Jr. did not mean that he and the other drivers had to make it easy for him.  Good point, Tony, and one that I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would agree with.  To my knowledge, he has never asked Mr. Stewart to pull over and allow a pass.  Not only that, aside from getting around Dale Jr. on a restart during Sunday's race, Stewart did not have much opportunity to see the front of Dale Jr.'s car.  Perhaps he just enjoyed the paint scheme on the rear bumper.

Stewart was not the only person who was less than impressed with the win.  Many fans, and writers, hate the attention that Earnhardt Jr. gets, how TV analysts always mention him, and how devoted his fans are.  They see him as overrated and only in the sport because of his late father, 7 time Champ, Dale Earnhardt.  Are they right?  Not if you look at facts and numbers, but they are taking a purely emotional view, as are those that believe Dale Jr. can do no wrong.

A particular writer, Mr. Norris McDonald, a blogger for Wheels.ca whose posts appear on the Toronto Star website, is particularly unimpressed with Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He as much as said in his latest NASCAR piece, "Was Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Win A Fluke?", that a monkey could have driven better than Junior in the past four years and that perhaps the only way to explain Earnhardt's win on Sunday is to call it a fluke.  Was it a fluke: an accident, a break, a stroke of luck or a coincidence?  Twelve top 10's and six top 5 finishes in 15 races...  Make your own decision.

Either way, Earnhardt Jr. will be taking one less question this week.

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Letarte Helping Dale Jr., From Start To Finish

With many people questioning the move by Steve Letarte, Crew Chief for the #88 Chevy driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr., late in Sunday's race at Pocono Raceway to take fuel rather than gamble for a win, I just thought I would underscore some reasons Letarte is making the right decisions for the #88 driver.  Although mistakes are made on a weekly basis by every, yes, every team, the overall direction of Letarte's team is in the right direction.  In fact, some issues Earnhardt has had for several years have been fairly well solved.

For one, Junior has had an issue with qualifying for quite some time.  I don't think it is totally because he has not had good setups, and I know it is not for lack of power.   When he began driving for Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt Jr. had a average starting position of 10.3, the best season average of his career.  However, after the one win that year (at Michigan, his last win, 4 years ago this week) finishes began to taper off, finishing outside the lead lap in five of the ten Chase races. 

After Earnhardt's confidence in himself and the #88 team began to go away, so did his qualifying attempts.  Over the next three years his starting average was 22.2, 19.0, and last year 19.6, which were out of character for Dale Jr., whose career average is 16.4.  This year, Dale Jr. has put up good qualifying numbers almost every week.  In fact, he has only two starts outside the top 20.  Compare that to last year when, in the first 14 races, he had only three starts inside the top 20. 

I thoroughly believe that the primary reason for the change in qualifying success has been confidence.  Confidence that his grip will hold when entering a corner at 160 mph, confidence that he has a crew chief that has listened to his feedback and adjusted accordingly, and confidence that if he gives his 100%, so will his team.

That confidence is the main reason I think Letarte chose to pit and take fuel in a late race caution on Sunday.  Dale Jr. himself pointed out to Letarte that he would not be forgiven if the #88 car ran out of fuel.  In later interviews, Earnhardt Jr. alluded to the fact that running out of gas would have ruined his confidence, the team's focus, and the upward direction of the #88 team as a whole.   I agree.

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Does Gordon Have Time To Make Chase?

With only 3 top 10 finishes in the first 13 races of the 2012 season, Jeff Gordon is having, by far, the worst start to a season that he has had in his career.  Never before has he had so few top tens thus far into the season, including his rookie year.  He has had loose wheels, flat tires, started wrecks and got sucked into them.  I am sure the 24 team has gone through every spare good luck charm in their hauler by now.

Until 2012, Gordon has made the Chase in every year except 2005, the second year of the Chase, which he finished 11th in the points standings.  If he were to miss the Chase this year it would be only the third time in his twenty year career. 

The grinding thing for the 24 team has to be that they have had good runs, challenging for and leading races.  In fact, he has led almost as many laps in 2012 as he did in that whole 2005 season when he won 4 races on the path to that 11th place season finish.  Everything that could have gone wrong, has.  For the Dupont team of Gordon and Gustafson, Mr. Murphy has proven his law almost every weekend.

The scary fact for Gordon, at this point, is that he is 94 points out of 10th place.  With 13 races left before the Chase field is set, that would mean a gain of 7.4 points on 10th to be in the top 10 by Richmond.  Gordon is great, don't get me wrong, but it is hightly unlikely, especially since he currently has more monkeys on his back than live in the San Diego Zoo.

Gordon's best bet is to make it into the top 15 and get at least two wins, possibly three.  Currently he would have to beat the win total of Brad Keselowski (2), Kasey Kahne (1), and Ryan Newman (1).  I believe at least one of these three will be in the top 10 by Richmond, and since Keselowski is currently closest, 2 wins may just be enough to make the 2 extra Chase slots.

One thing is for certain: if those pesky monkeys ever fall off the rear deck lid of the 24, watch out Sprint Cup Series!  Gordon is running as well as he has since his great '07 season and should he make one of the two extra Chase slots due to wins, the rest of the Chase field should be on notice, he could well be the 'Tony Stewart' of 2012. (Recall that Stewart had 0 wins heading into the 2011 Chase and felt like they did not deserve to make the Chase, yet won 5 races and won the Championship.)

All of the above said, this week we are going to Pocono, a track known for killing engines, gas mileage grief, and surprise rain winners.  With so many pitfalls around the triangle track, is this the week for Gordon to mount a comeback?

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I Have My Tickets, How About You??

With every NASCAR season their is plenty of complaints to go around.  Some years there are complaints about one make having an advantage over another, some years there are complaints about too much domination by one team.  In 2012 there have been no shortage of complaints, by commentators, analysts, drivers, and especially fans.

People have been complaining about how long the races are, how long the season is, how uncompetitive the races have been and about knowing just what brought out the debris cautions.  One definitely concerning complaint has been where are all the fans...  I haven't seen a race this year and thought, "Wow, how did they pack all those people in there." 

Well, NASCAR fans, there is one certain way to get over the complaining about everything NASCAR: get to the track!  Yes, I said go to a race!  Nothing makes me less concerned about how crooked the cars look going down the straightaway than actually trying to see them because they are going so fast.  The best way for me to forget about how much I can't stand a particular NASCAR on air personality is to not be able to hear anything but the roar of 43 cars (at the beginning of the race, obviously) flying past me.  And the only way to care less about the semantics of the sport, how to grow the viewing audience, and what tracks need less races, is to remember first hand exactly why you fell in love with the sport.

Don't get me wrong, if you have read any of my other posts you know I love to tell my opinion about every aspect of the sport.  It just seems to me that there are too many fans today that would rather complain about NASCAR than brag about it.  Has anything changed?  Yes, of course things have, but there are still 43 drivers giving it everything while riding 200 mph a foot from a concrete wall.  There are still pit crews dodging cars driving 45 - 55 mph down pit road.  And no matter how much some of you bemoan the sport, you still get on the edge of your seat when your driver is slinging it 3 wide on a restart.

Yes, NASCAR needs to hear every point of view and should continue to find ways to keep the fans happy, but the rest of us need to take a step back and remember why we love the sport: the screaming fans, the smell of burning rubber, the car coming out of turn 4 with the right rear sliding out from under it.  I, for one, am ready for my reminder.

I will be going to the July race at Daytona International Speedway, which will be my first race in over 4 years.  It has been a long cold winter, indeed.  I will try to listen out for anyone complaining about the new points system during the race, not likely to hear them though.

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Darrell Wallace Jr: Logano, Round 2?

Four years ago, Joe Gibbs Racing began to introduce a new star to the sport of stock car racing. "Sliced Bread" was to be the next Richard Petty, was the greatest young driver ever seen by some, and was expected to make NASCAR his playground.

Over the next few seasons, Joey Logano has gained mutual respect from other NASCAR drivers, but has failed to wow fans and has won just one race. He has, however, dominated at times in the Nationwide Series where he and his JGR teammates have been the cream of the crop over the last three years.

Perhaps Logano was brought all the way up to the Cup Series before he was ready. JGR was looking for a replacement for Tony Stewart at the time who was leaving, and was, no doubt, looking for a bright, young face that could keep some sponsors. That they got.

With his 12 wins in the Nationwide Series it's easy to think that Logano would have won a Nationwide Championship by now and could have eased his way into the upper level. Perhaps his confidence would have been kept in tact and he would have had an easier time acclimating to the Sprint Cup Series. Who knows?

With Wallace Jr., however there is yet another piece of the NASCAR pie on the line. Wallace Jr. is the best new hope of NASCAR's Drive For Diversity program. Wallace Jr., an African American, has had great success in the K&N Series, and will be expected to continue that progression in the Nationwide Series for JGR. Hopefully the Gibbs organization has learned some lessons from Logano.

One benefit Wallace Jr. will have is that, although JGR may be looking to add a 4th car at some point to its Cup stable, there is no superstar seat to fill to make them do so in a hurried fashion as they did with Logano. JGR has the ability to allow Wallace Jr. The time to mature in the Nationwide Series and become accustomed to the press, fans, and everything else "NASCAR."

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Dale Jr. Reaches New Level Of Consistency

All the speculators thought this weekend was the week.  Hendrick was to get their 200th win and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was to break his losing streak and make all of Junior Nation happy once again.  Sometimes things just don't work out the way you plan.  However, Dale Jr. can be thrilled with his 9th place finish for another reason!

Dale Earnhardt Jr's top 10 finish at Talladega marked his 8th in the first 10 races of this season which is the first time he has ever surpassed 7 top 10's to begin a season.  Junior has reached 7/10 three other times (2003, 2004, and 2008). 

An 80% top ten mark to start the NASCAR season has been reached 47 times in the Cup Era (since 1975), and has been accomplished by that year's champion 13 times out of 36 years.  However, that has not been accomplished since NASCAR went to the Chase format.  In fact, the last time it happened was one year prior when Matt Kenseth won the championship with only 1 win.

Dale Earnhardt started the season with 8 top tens in 7 of his seasons, including 6 championship years.  The next driver on the list was Darrell Waltrip, who made that mark 6 times, including twice of those being 9 top 10's out of 10 races.  Out of the other NASCAR greats, Terry Labonte did it 5 times, Jeff Gordon 3, Bobby Allison 3, Cale Yarborough 2, and Richard Petty 2 times.

Some notable drivers not on that list were Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and other current top drivers.  The best knowledge to take away from that fact is that these racers have been excellent in the past 8 years at turning it on from the summer on, especially during the Chase.  This has been an issue for Junior in the past as even though he has won at some Chase races, such as Talladega and Phoenix, he has not been able to put together 10 great races at the end of the season as he has now at the beginning.

In the mean time, Earnhardt Jr. and the 88 team as a whole are enjoying a building of momentum including 6 straight top ten finishes.  They are listed as the best team over the past 6 races, Junior has one of the highest average driver ratings he has had in his career, and people are looking for them to win week in and week out.  The most important thing driver 88 can do now is prove those people right...

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Just A Number: Talladega 5/12

What do numbers really mean? Most of us talk about numbers in racing all the time but rarely look inside or behind those numbers. For instance, every member of Junior Nation has something with an 88 on it, but few know that the number 88 has been used by 5 champions (Darrell Waltrip, Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace, Bobby Allison, and Buddy Baker) and other racing greats such as Al Unser Sr., Ricky Rudd, and even Richard Childress. There is definitely a lot of history behind the 88.


With that said, there are many numbers being thrown around in NASCAR over the last few weeks that need to be looked at a bit closer. For one, the current Hendrick Motorsports losing streak is at 15 heading into the spring race at Talladega. Attached to that number is the fact that HMS is still looking for its 200th win.   The last time HMS had a 15 race losing skid was a stretch from late 2002 to early 2003 when Gordon won at Martinsville.  Interesting tidbit: the race before Gordon broke the losing streak was Talladega, and the winner was DEI driver Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Many are saying that this week is when several streaks will be broken, including Junior's losing streak, HMS's losing streak, and HMS's 200th win will be posted.  I am not certain, nor should anyone be, due to the totally random nature of Talladega.  I do thing, however, that HMS has a better chance of winning than any other team.  For instance, in the 16 races at Talladega from 2000 to 2007, 11 of the wins came from Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson.  In fact, the three of them have a total of 13 wins at the track.  Therefore, the return to a more "pack-like" style of racing at the restrictor plate tracks will suite these drivers well.

It is important, though, to look at the cause behind the 15 race losing skid for HMS.  I will leave the Junior winless streak for a book as it is too much for a little article.  I believe that although the strength of Roush and Gibbs is partly the cause, there are some issues at HMS that have left the door open for other teams.  First, the relationship between Johnson and crew chief Knaus at the end of last season was cool at best.  They both knew they were about to lose the Sprint Cup for the first time in 6 years and neither relished the thought.  Along with some time and space (from each other) in the off season also comes a few missteps in the new season.

Second, the new teams that were formed for the 88 and 24 last year are still ironing out everything.  Although Gordon had some strong runs last year, as did Junior, the two teams are close, but not yet at their full potential.  And third, the 5 team should be sponsored by a Mr. Murphy.  His law has governed almost every race for Kasey Kahne this year.

Although these teams ALL have their issues, it is just a matter of time before one of them visits victory lane.  In fact, I feel certain that all four, even Kahne, will win races this year, most likely multiple races.  The question for this week is will the magic number be 2 or 1.  Will it be one driver's ability to pick lanes and build momentum, or will a team of two drivers have to win this week?

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Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

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Great Restarts, For Vegas And Biffle

The 2012 Kobalt Tools 400 in Las Vegas this weekend had some great racing.  Although there was not as much side by side racing in Vegas as there may have been in the past, the competitive restarts were enough to make up for it.  Seeing the Sprint Cup drivers slinging it three wide at the start finish line and having cars rubbing bumpers and fenders is the best way to see drivers easing into their 2012 season.

No, there were no jet driers exploding in flames, and the only fuel mileage issue was when Brad Keselowski had fuel pump issues after stretching his fuel.  I, for one, am glad not to see jet driers.  Although as a firefighter I did enjoy watching the flames at Daytona, whilst screaming "Put foam on it!!" while the fire crew extinguished the flames slowly, I think we have all seen enough rain delayed races to hold us until at least Darlington.  They did move it back to Labor Day weekend right??  No?  Well they should!!

This weekends race saw two drivers coming back from a rough 2012 start.  Tony Stewart, the winner of this weeks race, had a horrible week last week with a engineering issue relegating him to a 22nd place finish at Phoenix, and started the season with two finishes outside the top 15.  Although many people felt Stewart would cool off a bit, at least in the near term, with a crew chief change (he replaced Darian Grubb with Steve Addington in the offseason), two bad finishes to start the season after winning 3 of the final 4 races of 2011 would have been though a stretch.  Stewart dominated the end of Sunday's race at Las Vegas, however, so he and Addington may be warming up quicker than most thought.

Jimmie Johnson, after wrecking on the second lap of the Daytona 500 and finishing 42nd, found out a week later that he would probably be without his crew chief, Chad Knaus, for 6 races and down 25 more points to the field of Sprint Cup teams vying for this years Chase.  He did, however, get a great 4th place finish at Phoenix, but during final practice at Las Vegas, Johnson hit the wall and began warming up his backup car to start at the rear on Sunday.  Before half way through the 400 mile race, the 48 had made its way to the front and at the end of the race was just shy of Stewarts pace to the finish line. 

Probably the best restart going on in NASCAR at the moment is the restart occurring in the #16 garage.  Although Biffle is always a possible front runner on any given weekend, his end to the 2011 season was weak to say the least.  His 2011 season in general was out of character for the Vancouver, WA driver, as he posted only 3 top 5 finishes for the year and no wins.  During the offseason, no team has turned around as well as the RFR #16 bunch.  Although they have not posted a win in the first three races, they have already tied their top 5 mark from 2012 with 3, scoring a 3rd place finish in each race.  Biffle has also not started outside the top 10, which is great for a driver who is known for driving harder when he can see the leader.

Whatever the 3M RFR team is doing, it is working!

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Will Earnhardt Jr. And Letarte's 2012 Achilles Return?

One day after finishing the first ever nightime Daytona 500, after racing all night, fire balls and all, NASCAR's Sprint Cup teams are loading up the cars to start the "rest of the season."  As the Daytona 500 is NASCAR's "Super Bowl", it is different than the rest of the season and often produces winners that may stumble during the rest of the early season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and his crew chief Steve Letarte begain their first season last February with a pole award for the Daytona 500 and if their primary car had not been wrecked would have had a good 500 finish to go along with it.  They did not start the next several races as well, however.  Over the next 9 races, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would start in the top 20 only once.  In fact, over those 9 races, team 88 would average a starting spot of 26th.

During that time span, Earnhardt and Letarte would hone their communication skills.  Letarte would better learn how Earnhardt wanted his cars to handle, and Earnhardt would learn what information Letarte would need to make the cars better.  The two would continuously better the car throughout the races and made some good finishes.  However, they were constantly begining well behind the leaders and having to work hard to get those finishes.

By late season, the 88 team had made good progress on starting positions, averaging a 14th place start over the final 10 races of the season.  Although they did not get the finishes they hoped for during the Chase, the 88 team was definitely unloading better cars that were better prepared for the race weakend.

The question the 88 fans must be asking themselves heading into this Phoenix weekend is will team "Earntarte" pick up where they left off or will they have to rebuild their foundation.  If Junior and Letarte can come out this weekend and next with cars that are fast from the hauler and comfortable for the driver, team 88 could get a great start on the 2012 season.

Yes Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a great Daytona 500, and although many Junior fans can't wait for the next plate track for the 88 to flex its muscle, the meat of the season lies in the 1 mile and the 1.5 mile tracks and there is where the path to competing for a championship lies.  We watched the 88 driver make soem good moves in the final laps of Daytona, but lets see what he has up his sleeves for the rest of the season. 

A couple weeks ago during media days Dale Jr. said he was eager to get to the non-restrictor plate tracks to see where they are as a team.  Well, here we are.  Bring it.

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Dale Jr. Lone Hendrick Horse In First Gatorade Duel

Of and on, during the Budweiser Shootout Saturday night and during Daytona 500 qualifying, you could hear announcers and commentators talk about how the racing for this years 500 will be different: a combination of pack and tandem racing.  Many have suggested that the change could benefit some of the more traditional restrictor plate racers, such as Dale Earnhardt Jr. who had much early career success at restrictor plate tracks.

Junior may be glad to see the change for Sunday's race, but he is likely to be relieved with the change going into Thursday's duel qualifying.  Out of the four Hendrick Motorsports cars preparing for the Daytona 500, Earnhardt Jr. is the only one that will be in the early qualifying race.  As the duel lineups are set by qualifying, odds in the early race and evens in the late race, Earnhardt entered the early lineup with a 3rd place qualifying effort.  The other Hendrick cars, Gordon 6th, Johnson 12th, and Hendrick newcomer Kahne 24th, will all be in the later duel.

One other plus this year is that Junior qualified so well.  Although Earnhardt Jr has qualified well for the Daytona 500 before (he has one pole), the stout showing by the teams with Ford engines had most people feeling as though the Fords had the pole locked up.  Apparently, the changing winds that had been pushing the cars around all afternoon worked somewhat to Earnhardt's advantage, because coming through turn 3 and 4 he began to pick up steam and rose from 5th to almost 2nd on the speed tracker.  Also I am sure Earnhardts knowledge and experience at the track helped him find a little speed.

Whether Earnhardt Jr wins the Daytona 500 or another more traditional pack racer like Gordon, it is safe to say that after the showing on Saturday night that the product of NASCAR's changes will be a wild finish.  No doubt there will be pack racing, and like it or leave it there will be small bursts of tandem racing.  I guess its a little of each and a whole lot of speed.  If you don't love Daytona, you don't love racing.

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