For Dale Jr., As Daytona Goes, So Goes The Year

I'm sure everyone has heard the saying about Wall Street and the stock world, "As January goes, so goes the year."  And of course, everyone in the South has heard the saying, "What you do January 1st you'll be doing the rest of the year."  For NASCAR fans, we look at the upcoming season and often pile all of our hopes into the Daytona 500.

Although these expectations are often extremely unfair, they do, however, sometimes point to an understanding that success at Daytona spills over into the rest of the season.  3 times since 2000, the champion at the end of the year had finished in the top five in two out of three of the Daytona Speedweeks races (Shootout, Gatorade Duel, and the 500).  Two of those three were Tony Stewart and the last one was Jimmie Johnson in 2006.

For Dale Earnhardt Jr., however, his success at Daytona points to wins.  Since 2001, only 3 times did Jr. not have top fives in two out of three Speedweeks races.  Those years were 2007, 2009, and 2010; the only years Earnhardt Jr. did not get a win.  This correlation can be explained many different ways or dismissed altogether, which would be a mistake.

Beginning the season with marked success at Daytona is important to Jr.'s season for 4 main reasons.  First, restrictor plate, superspeedway racing is Earnhardt Jr.'s strongest forte.  If he is not "on" in these venues, he will not be competitive in the other venues.  Second, strength at the first race of the season points to success for the team in general.  If they are "clicking" in the off season, preparing good cars, and making the right changes, success tends to show up early and stay throughout.  Third, for Jr. in particular, confidence is key!  If he begins the season with strong success, he has tended to maintain that confidence throughout the year.  Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. enjoys racing up front at Talladega and Daytona and if Junior is having fun racing, prepare for excitement; just look at his finishes in 2004 when he won 6 races after finishing second in the Bud Shootout, first in his Gatorade Duel, and first in the Daytona 500.

Maybe this year will prove the rule with excellent, if not winning, finishes at Daytona Speedweeks.  But as a caution to any hopeful members of Junior Nation, he also has another interesting stat that very much lessens his opportunity for a top five or championship finish.  Each year, since 2003, NASCAR has finished the season at Homestead, and with the current Chase format, strong finishes are a must to contend for the Cup.  Dale Jr.'s finishes at the Homestead finale since 2003 have been abysmal, with his best finish being 19th. 

Here's hoping Junior has strong finishes at the beginning, improvement at the end, and plenty of success in between!  BRING ON DAYTONA!

Posted in: Dale Earnhardt Jr,Daytona,Jimmie Johnson,Nascar,Nascar Blog,Racing,Sprint Cup,Tony Stewart