Early Points: Surprises High And Low

Yes, yes, I know, it is way too early to get caught up in any discussion about points standings with only three races in the books for 2011. Too bad, I will anyway. The reason being, there are several drivers who are surprisingly high and several who are surprisingly low, even after only three races. Although there is much time, and assuredly the top ten staples will return to the top ten for the most part, with the new points system and so many changes in NASCAR, any differences should be noted and watched.

In any off season predictions of this years Chase contenders, you would have found Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, and Kevin Harvick. You also probably saw Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, and Clint Boyer. The average current points position for these seven drivers is 25.7 and they are an average 52 points behind leader Kurt Busch. Now, under the old system, 52 points would not be much, but in the current system, those are comparable to about 200 points in the old system.

Being behind that far and winning the championship has not happened since Terry Labonte in 1996. Labonte was 211 points behind Dale Jarrett in the old point system after Richmond (the third race that year.) However, that was due mostly to Jarrett’s dominating start to the season. That year, he began with one win and three straight top five finishes and was 86 points ahead of second place Jeff Burton. Also, with the implementation of the “Chase”, a huge lead shrinks quite quickly.

With that said, these seven drivers definitely know that they need some good runs and they need them now! Look for these drivers to have a good deal of damage to their front bumper and right side as they root their way to the front at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The surprises near the top of the points standings are none other than Juan Pablo Montoya, Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Although a few predictions may have had Montoya and Earnhardt Jr. in their top twelve for the Chase, I doubt any of those prognosticators would have thought Junior and Montoya would have had such good finishes so early in the season.

None of the predictors would have picked Menard and Allmendiger for the top ten, and definitely not so early. With Menard starting a new team at RCR and Allmendinger racing for a rebuilt RPM, the two drivers would have been happy with mid-teen consistent finishes at this point. Yet they have been competitive in the top ten and near the top five at each track so far.

Of course, the one factor yet to play its little hand in the stats of this blog post has yet to rear its head. Time. A few races will make much clear. Will the perennial favorites move back up with a few good finishes? Or will the surprises at the top trip over a couple of disappointing finishes and not regain their current composure?

That, friends, is why we turn the racing on each and every week!


See more from Joseph Davis at The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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