The 2011 Chase: Who’s Down, Who’s Out?

With the “Race To The Chase” well underway, much speculation has been given to who will be in the Chase, and who will be relegated to “also ran” for the rest of the season. So, since we have a week without a race and no driver spats to talk about, let’s take a look at who is in, who is struggling, and who is out.

The “In’s” are definitely not a mathematical lock at this point, but one should not bet against them. The top 7 drivers, Edwards, Johnson, Ku. Busch, Harvick, Ky. Busch, Kenseth and Gordon, are well out of reach as long as no major catastrophe occurs. Gordon is only a point ahead of 8th place Newman, but given the fact that he has an average finish of 12.4 at the 7 remaining tracks prior to the Chase cut-off, he should easily end up in the top 10.

The “Out’s” are those from 16th and below. I know there are those of you who say that the wild card rule contradicts this prediction, but hear me out. Without a huge points gain or another win by Keselowski (almost a 50 point deficit behind 15th place), or multiple wins by others in the next 7 races, most likely the two wild cards are currently within the top 15. There should be little doubt that a win will come from Stewart, Biffle, Kahne or Bowyer in the next 7 races.

Along with Keselowski, the other drivers just outside the top 15 all seem to be fizzling out. Mark Martin is having trouble getting inside the top 10, Ambrose and Almendinger, although better than 2010, are consistently inconsistent, and Martin Truex Jr. has yet to post a top 5 finish.

Of those who are left, positions 8 through 15, two are definitely not “Down.” Without a string of bad luck, Hamlin and Stewart have some of their best tracks ahead and should be inside the top 10 by the checkered flag at Richmond. They have overall average finishes for the next 7 tracks of 13th and 12th respectively ranking 3rd and 1st among the 7th-15th place drivers. Keep in mind that one or two DNF’s could throw all of this out the window.

Out of the other 6 drivers, Newman, Earnhardt Jr., Bowyer, Ragan, Kahne, and Biffle, the last 3 are definitely in need of a win to make the Chase. Outside some major DNF’s, these drivers will not be making an appearance in the top 10, so entrance into the Chase is definitely dependant on getting one of the two wild card spots. Ragan is the only one of these that currently has a win and, as long as he stays in the top 15 in points, should get a wild card.

That leaves Newman, Earnhardt, and Bowyer to fight for the remaining spot in the top 10. The stress is definitely lessened on Newman now that he has a win and could get a wild card spot, but don’t plan on seeing him lay down. Earnhardt Jr.’s recent slide has prompted several commentators to say he is finished. They point to the next 3 races, Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, as his Waterloo and say he will not recover in time to make the top 10. If they are correct, the only other way for Junior to make the Chase is if he is 11th in points and Ragan is the only driver from 11th-20th with a win.

If each of the 7th-15th place drivers finished their average finish at the next 7 tracks, here is what the points will look like after Richmond:

7th- Gordon
8th- Stewart
9th- Hamlin
10th- Newman
11th- Earnhardt Jr.
12th- Bowyer
13th- Biffle
14th- Kahne
15th- Ragan

Should be a tight race for the last 4 spots so bring on Indy!

Posted in: Clint Bowyer,Dale Earnhardt Jr,David Ragan,Denny Hamlin,Greg Biffle,Jeff Gordon,Kasey Kahne,Nascar,Nascar Blog,nascar news,Ryan Newman,Tony Stewart