Chase 2012: 'Outwit', 'Outplay', or 'Outlast'?

With this season's up and down nature, engine's blowing, and no clear dominator, this year's Chase could be an exercise in 'Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast'.  Although there is always a possibility of someone getting on a hot streak as Tony Stewart did late in last year's Chase, the field seems very level for those who are definitely in the Chase.

Each of the past several weeks there has been one or more of this year's contenders in trouble.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. wrecked in practice, in a race, and tore up a transmission.  Johnson never seriously contended at the Glen, then blew his engine within sight of victory lane at Michigan.  Kenseth or his team, or both, are apparently looking forward to next season.  And Keselowski is now following the Hendrick cars around drooling over their 'rear ends'.  Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

The way things are shaping up, the Chase is possibly going to be a case of who stays out of trouble, dodge's wrecks, steals one with stragegy, and keeps their engines running coming out ahead of the other contenders.  With only 10 races in the Chase, one DNF can easily end a driver's chance at the Sprint Cup, especially if there are one or two drivers who are cautious and lucky enough to stay 'clean' throughout the Chase.

One thing is for sure, the race to the Chase for those contending for the two wildcard slots will come down to outwit or outplay.  Should anyone of the drivers with one win snag another victory, it could be all they need, because none of those drivers look like they could run off a string of 2 or three wins right now.

As for how the Chase has historically played out, there have been a mixture of three plots.  In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2010, the Champion would win none or one race in the Chase, and effectively 'Outlast' the field.  In each of those years, a driver other than the eventual champ would win 2 or more races in the Chase, but one or more poor performances put them in a hole too deep to win.  In 2004, in fact, Jimmie Johnson had 4 Chase wins, but could only manage to climb back to second by season's end. 

In 2007, 2009, and 2011 the Champion 'Outplayed' the field.  In each of those years the eventual winner would snag at least 4 Chase races and simply dominate the competition to the point that sheer speed won out.  And in 2008 the Championship was won by a combination of 'Outwit', 'Outlast' and 'Outplay'.  In that year, three drivers had multiple Chase wins, and two had three wins in what ended up as a virtual slugfest to the finish.  Although Carl Edwards won 3 of the final 4 races, the points Johnson had amassed in his 3 wins gave him the cushion to keep Edwards at bay for the final races.

One driver you will hear commentators say does not have the ability to hit a hot streak during the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr.  His best showing in the Chase races was in 2004 where he won 2 races in the final 10.  The most promising news for the 88 crew is that his performance in the 1.5 mile tracks has been solid this year, which could translate into some success in the fall.

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