2012: In With A Bang, Out With A Kes

NASCAR's 2012 Sprint Cup season is over and gone, but before we begin to speculate about what may be for 2013, lets take one last look at the wild ride that was the 2012 season.

The 2012 season story began with several before/after stories.  To begin, Kyle Busch, a perennial threat with the ability to win every week, won the Budweiser Shootout.  Many people would have thought the 18 bunch could have put together a strong run this year, but shortly into the season their wheels would fall off.  He did manage a points win at Richmond, but that would be all for him in 2012, his lowest win total since 2007.

The next before and after story would have to be the before and after photos of Daytona International Speedway after Juan Pablo Montoya played demolition derby with a jet dryer.  Fortunately nobody was hurt, but the ensuing fire and inspection of the track caused the Daytona 500 to end well into the night.

Another early season story we saw was Matt Kenseth's dominance.  He won the Daytona 500 and ended up the points leader by mid season, but his contract talks with Roush Fenway Racing fell apart.  Probably the largest blunder RFR has made, Kenseth ended up signing to drive for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, effectively ending the teams ability to race for the 2012 championship.

Returning to challenge for the Sprint Cup points lead this year was driver 88, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  After beginning the year with a large stretch of top 10 runs, he finally returned to victory lane at Michigan with a dominating performance.  Although he did reach the points lead briefly during the summer, his season slowed after an initial concussion at a Kansas tire test in August, then totally stopped with a second concussion and ensuing 2 week break at Talladega. 

One of the most entertaining stories of the season was the tension and on-track altercation between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer.  After consistent contact between the 15 and 24 for a couple races, Gordon finally had all he could handle and wrecked Bowyer during the final laps of the Phoenix Chase race, effectively ending Bowyer's chances at winning the championship.  The ensuing melee in the garage area brought about probations and fines a plenty and added to the drama when the two drivers finished first and second in the season ending race at Homestead.  I doubt the two will be drafting partners at Daytona come February.

The final story of the season came down to Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson.  Many people wondered whether the young driver could handle the pressure and hold back the five time champion for the 2012 Sprint cup, but as the end of the Chase grew closer, it was Johnson, Knaus, and the 48 crew that did not stand up to the pressure.  Keselowski obtained the points lead after a misstep by the Lowe's team at Phoenix and did not let it go.

The stories of the 2012 season were plenty and were fun to follow.  There were great races, a good Chase, and even some altercations in the garage.  Here's hoping the 2013 season will rise to the occasion.

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Get Set!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 1st - 5th

As the Chase quickly approaches, many drivers are getting ready to prepare for 2013.  They will not be "in the hunt", so they are either preparing with their team for a stronger run next year, or are preparing for a new ride to start speedweeks at Daytona.

The Chase drivers, on the other hand, are preparing to put their best foot forward on the first Chase race.  Not wanting to fall behind and give up a chance at a Championship, drivers will be looking to make statements at the 1.5 mile Chicagoland Speedway.  Whether they will step out ahead or not, these 5 drivers are starting out front on their way to the Sprint Cup:

5th - Greg Biffle: In many ways, 2012 has been a season of renewal for Biffle and the 16 team.  They have led more laps this year than any season since '06.  They have remained in or close to the top 3 in points for most of the regular season.  And the 16 team has not finished the season in the top 5 since 2008 and have never had an average finish better than 11.9 (their current average for the '12 season is 9.7).

To have a chance at winning the Sprint Cup, Biffle will have to produce on his strong suits, the 1.5 mile downforce tracks and the Monster Mile of Dover.  If he can pop of a win or two, look for him to be close to the top entering Homestead, a track where he has 3 wins.  The 'Biff' has an average finish of 15.9 and 10 wins at the 10 Chase tracks.

4th - Brad Keselowski: Making his second Chase appearance in just 3 full time Sprint Cup seasons, Keselowski has definitely made his place amoung the top tier drivers.  He has 3 wins this year and is more than capable of winning a few more prior to Homestead.  Along with his ability to stay up front, the 2 team has also shown that they and their driver are willing to do whatever is needed to win, a trait that may serve them well when the points battle gets close at the end.

The downside for the 2 team is that Keselowski only has good history at a few of the Chase tracks.  Don't get me wrong, he is more than capable of winning at all of them, he just has poor average finishes at most of them.  His strong tracks are definitely Talladega and Kansas.  Keselowski's average finish at the Chase tracks is 17.1 and he has 3 wins on those tracks.

3rd - Tony Stewart: This year Stewart is entering the Chase in 3rd and not quite as unsure as he was last year when he dominated the Chase with 5 wins.  However, although Stewart has more top 5's this year than the previous two, he only has two more top 10's than top 5's.  What that means is that if Stewart has a good car and a good setup, he can compete and will finish within sight of the lead.  If he does not, he is not getting to the top 10.  Translation: Stewart could break out with multiple wins, or he could struggle with poor setups.

Nobody, though, should count the 14 out of the Championship.  2011 should serve as plenty reminder that Stewart may be down but is never 'out'.  Stewart, after all, is known for being at mid-late season driver.  He does not, however, have Darian Grubb who helped him win the Cup last year.  Stewart has an average finish of 12.5 and 21 wins on the Chase tracks.

2nd - Jimmie Johnson: Another Chase and another attempt at a Championship for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew.  Johnson has shown this year, again, that he wins the big races, and once he is out front he is hard to catch.  Johnson has had three wins so far, and is unlikely to go winless in the Chase.  Johnson has NEVER gone winless in the final 10 races of the year in his Sprint Cup career.

Winning or not, Johnson cannot be counted out of the Chase picture.  He has plenty of ability to win, let alone his proven history with Crew Chief Knaus at the Chase tracks from which to draw information.  Johnson has an average finish of 10th and 31 wins at the Chase tracks.

1st - Denny Hamlin: After not being able to back up his 2010 performance last year, Hamlin has been able to slowly build this year to the point that he is the Chase frontrunner.  Hamlin has had an up and down 2012, but with a few wins and more consistently running at or near the front over the summer, Hamlin is hitting his stride at just the right time.

One of Hamlin's biggest strengths this year is the addition of last years Cup winning Crew Chief, Darian Grubb.  Grubb may well be out for some 'how do you like me now' and Hamlin would be more than happy to help him out.  What Hamlin will be sure to look out for is a momentum trip up like he had near the end of the 2010 Chase.  Hamlin has an average finish of 13.4 and 10 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Just A Number: Talladega 5/12

What do numbers really mean? Most of us talk about numbers in racing all the time but rarely look inside or behind those numbers. For instance, every member of Junior Nation has something with an 88 on it, but few know that the number 88 has been used by 5 champions (Darrell Waltrip, Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace, Bobby Allison, and Buddy Baker) and other racing greats such as Al Unser Sr., Ricky Rudd, and even Richard Childress. There is definitely a lot of history behind the 88.


With that said, there are many numbers being thrown around in NASCAR over the last few weeks that need to be looked at a bit closer. For one, the current Hendrick Motorsports losing streak is at 15 heading into the spring race at Talladega. Attached to that number is the fact that HMS is still looking for its 200th win.   The last time HMS had a 15 race losing skid was a stretch from late 2002 to early 2003 when Gordon won at Martinsville.  Interesting tidbit: the race before Gordon broke the losing streak was Talladega, and the winner was DEI driver Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Many are saying that this week is when several streaks will be broken, including Junior's losing streak, HMS's losing streak, and HMS's 200th win will be posted.  I am not certain, nor should anyone be, due to the totally random nature of Talladega.  I do thing, however, that HMS has a better chance of winning than any other team.  For instance, in the 16 races at Talladega from 2000 to 2007, 11 of the wins came from Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson.  In fact, the three of them have a total of 13 wins at the track.  Therefore, the return to a more "pack-like" style of racing at the restrictor plate tracks will suite these drivers well.

It is important, though, to look at the cause behind the 15 race losing skid for HMS.  I will leave the Junior winless streak for a book as it is too much for a little article.  I believe that although the strength of Roush and Gibbs is partly the cause, there are some issues at HMS that have left the door open for other teams.  First, the relationship between Johnson and crew chief Knaus at the end of last season was cool at best.  They both knew they were about to lose the Sprint Cup for the first time in 6 years and neither relished the thought.  Along with some time and space (from each other) in the off season also comes a few missteps in the new season.

Second, the new teams that were formed for the 88 and 24 last year are still ironing out everything.  Although Gordon had some strong runs last year, as did Junior, the two teams are close, but not yet at their full potential.  And third, the 5 team should be sponsored by a Mr. Murphy.  His law has governed almost every race for Kasey Kahne this year.

Although these teams ALL have their issues, it is just a matter of time before one of them visits victory lane.  In fact, I feel certain that all four, even Kahne, will win races this year, most likely multiple races.  The question for this week is will the magic number be 2 or 1.  Will it be one driver's ability to pick lanes and build momentum, or will a team of two drivers have to win this week?

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Top 6 Things To Watch In The 2011 Chase

With the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship beginning this weekend at the Chicagoland Speedway, fans are gearing up to watch what may well be the closest Chase to date and perhaps one of the tightest Championship races in NASCAR history. Many fans will cheer for their driver that is in the Chase or for someone locked out of the Chase looking for some wins before the end of the season. Fans will also be looking for more drama that has already been evident in the 2011 season.

Here is my list of the top 6 things to watch in this year’s Chase.

#6 - Who Will Jump To An Early Lead? In the 7 years of the Chase system, 5 times the eventual champion finished in the top 6 in the first race. With only 10 races to go, there is no time to get up to speed. Teams will have to come out of the shoots with everything they have. In three of the above years, the champion finished first or second in the first race. Look for the Chase contenders, especially those from 6th back, to aggressively push for the lead Sunday. Their Chase may depend on it.

#5 - Who Will Move To Another Team? Although the Chase beginning, “Silly Season” is by no means over. With plans up in the air at Red Bull Racing, a part time seat open at Stewart-Haas Racing, and a few drivers looking at possible rides, the 2011 Chase will also have some action from non-Chase drivers. Will any Nationwide regulars move up? Will Red Bull close their doors? Will Mark Martin retire…again? The next 10 races will tell.

#4 - How Will The “Wildcard” Drivers Do In The Chase? With the changes to this years points system and Chase format, the last two drivers in the Chase were based on win totals for drivers between 11th and 20th in the points standings. Since these drivers have been focused on winning, not points racing, and have built up some momentum, how will they fair over the next 10 races. Will they surge ahead with their momentum or will they fizzle out due to exhaustion of will and resources?

#3 - Will The Real Rowdy Busch Please Stand Up? Although some may describe him as slim (although gaining weight since being married) or shady, this season Kyle Busch has kept his frustration and anger on a tighter leash. Yes, the emphasis was on tightER. I do remember the pit road bumper cars with the 29, but he has been nowhere near as obnoxious as years past. Some say he is looking at the big picture to win a championship. Others say he will pop eventually. I’m willing to bet both might happen.

#2 - Which Car Will Get Wrecked First, The 48 Or The 22? Over the past several races, many fans have seen that Jimmy Johnson is not as “Vanilla” as most fans had thought. He and Kurt Busch, driver of the Penske owned 22 car, have repeatedly sparred, both on track and off track verbally. Both of these drivers are not likely to give up their Championship chances to wreck the other, but should both be near the back due to misfortune, look for some “have at it” to occur.

#1 - Can Anyone “Out Chase” Jimmy And Chad? For the last 5 years, nobody can deny that Chad Knaus and Jimmy Johnson have perfected the “Chase Run.” They have figured out just how to prepare in the spring and summer for the 10 races that decide the Champion, all while staying competitive and winning throughout the season. There are only two drivers in the Chase that can string wins together like Johnson, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon, neither of which have shown the late season surge that Johnson has made his trademark. Will Johnson’s nickname change to 6-time? Will Busch’s new attitude pay off? Or will “Big Papa” take the 24 back to the Championship for the first time since 2001?

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Harvick On The Rise...

As he completed his outside pass on Jimmie Johnson Sunday, Kevin Harvick must have felt a huge difference from the end of last year. Toward the end of the Chase, last fall, Harvick had a better finishing average than all other racers… except Jimmie Johnson. No matter how hard he charged late in the race, he always seemed to get one view at the checkered flag, the 48’s rear spoiler.

So far, this season, Harvick has had decent finishes, including a 4th and a 6th place finish. However, disappointment at Daytona where he finished 42nd, and a mediocre 17th at Phoenix had him 15th in the points heading into Auto Club Speedway in California on Sunday. He returned to form, though, bye charging from mid pack to a late race win.

His first place finish moved him to 9th in Sprint Cup points, just 30 points behind leader Carl Edwards. Although it is very early to talk about points, the fact that Harvick is beginning to place marks in his win column for the year will only help him when the Chase begins and drivers are placed by number of wins. Have no doubt, when the Chase starts this fall, Harvick will be in it, and he will be charging even harder than 2010. The only place he will be satisfied seeing Jimmie Johnson will be in his rear view mirror, growing smaller.

Of course, that is no small task. Since its inception, no driver/crew chief team has had the Chase figured out better than Johnson and Knaus. They have perfected the art of preparation during the season for winning during the final ten races. During his five championship runs, Johnson has won 13 out of 50 chase races. That is over 25% of the Chase races.

During those same years, Harvick has only 2 wins during the Chase, a stat he well definitely have to change if he wants to be the one to dethrone “Five Time” before he becomes “Six Time.” Harvick’s problem in recent years has been that he has faded late in the season, due to a mix of lack of focus and team issues. In 2010, however, he was strong during the Chase, but came up short mostly due to a couple of stumbles early in the Chase.

Another stat he will have to best is that of no stumbles in the Chase. During the past five Chases, Johnson has had two finishes of 30th or worse and four finishes of 20th or worse in 50 races. That is almost as amazing as his Chase win total. If someone wishes to beat Johnson, they will truly have to race a flawless ten races – no DNF’s, and charge back from any adversity.

It is early yet, but it seems there are more teams preparing for the Chase this year and some may have caught on to the Knaus/Johnson recipe for Chase success. If not, I am certain that they will be glad to give just one more lesson…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter !

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #2- Hendrick Motorsports

What???  Hendrick comes in second??  They may win the championship, and I believe they will win races with all four drivers, but I do not feel they are the strongest team in 2011...yet.  I said yet...  I believe they will finish 2011 as the strongest team, but with a slow start due to off season changes they will not have the strongest season as a whole. 

For Mark Martin, and for NASCAR, 2011 may be the end of an era.  After 2011, Martin may end up driving full time for another team, but will more likely go back to semi-retirement.  This man of steel has shown us in the past not to count him out, so don't this year.  He will be re-training Crew Chief Lance McGrew who comes over from the old 88 team and will be housed now with Jeff Gordon.  Look for these two veterans to make a hard charge come Summer.

2011 was one of the worst years ever for Dale Earnhardt Jr., but believe it or not, it was a better year than 2009.  He had more top 10's and top 5's, finished 4 spots better in points, and went from 5 DNF's to 0 DNF's.  However, none of the stats were very good in 2010, no matter how bad 2009 was.  The hope for the 88 team rests mostly in the changes of the off season and the enthusiasm those changes have caused.  Now that Jr. will be housed with Jimmie Johnson, led by Steve Letarte, and driving Jeff Gordon's cars from last year, there seems to be a true excitement from him heading into Daytona.  It will be up and down in the beginning of the season, but if they can get some top 10's early and often, look out.  I think Jr will win by August, will make the Chase, and finish in the top 10 in points.  Don't wake me up.

Is 2011 the beginning of the end for Jeff Gordon, or the end of the beginning?  I know he his not about to retire, although he has spoken more and more of retirement in the past few years.  2010 was aggravating to Gordon to say the least.  He had only 1 top 5 in the last 15 races, but 2 finishes worse than 30th.  He had no wins and only one pole, his lowest pole total since 1997.  This year, he will have Alan Gustafson as his Crew Chief and will be housed with Mark Martin.  Look for Gordon to have the most initial success out of the changed teams.  If he can remember how to charge at the end of a race, and I think he can, look for Gordon to enter the Chase in the top 5 and finish top 3.

Is Johnson a fix for six??  I don't think so.  Although he and Knaus showed strong desire once challenged in October, he didn't show the same fire the whole year.  His May, July and August were so so with only 2 top 10's and no top 5's.  However, I did forget to mention June... In June he had 2 wins and an average finish of 3.25.  Although I don't think he will win the championship, he still has the ability to pound out win after win when he gets on a roll.  I think Johnson will enter the Chase with a few wins in the top 5 in points, but with a couple of DNF's in the Chase, only finishes around 5th.  His luck in the Chase can't last forever.  He has not had more than one finish outside the top 15 in the Chase since his first championship in 2006 which he made up for with 5 straight top 2 finishes.

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The 5 Busiest Teams In The Offseason

There are many teams that have much to accomplish in the offseason. The 2011 season holds many unknowns: what teams will be competing, who will be strong, and who will flop. These are the five I think have the most to sort out in the next 2 months.

#5. The #18 Team.  To say Busch had an up and down season in 2010 would be an understatement.  Busch had 3 wins and got into the Chase, which would make a good season for most drivers.  In the month of May alone, Busch had 2 wins and in points races had an average finish of 3rd.  However, in the final 10 races, Busch's average finish was a dismal 18th, with an average finish of 21st in the final five races.  The telling stat for Busch in the final 5 races is that his average starting position was 25th.  Something is wrong with the #18 team, and I doubt it will sit well with "Shrub" this off-season.

#4. Richard Petty Motorsports.  With drivers Ambrose and Allmendinger, whose average finishes in 2010 were 22nd and 19th respectively, Petty has the unenviable task of rebuilding a team that has been built, bought, reformed, and torn apart in the matter of a couple years.  He has lost the big sponsorship of Budweiser, and is reportedly keeping the sponsorship of Stanley and working on Best Buy.  Releasing employees, training new employees, and attempting to restructure two teams into competitors will make for a stressful off-season to say the least.

#3. The #31 Team.  Burton made the Chase in 2010, largely due to a string of good finishes in the Summer, but that is where the good news ends.  Although Burton seemed to have some strong cars during the season, victory lane always stayed out of reach.  With the arrival of the Chase, Burton's team fell apart.  Burton had one top five and one other top ten in the Chase with an average finish of 21st and an average finish of 27th in the final five races.  Burton seemed exhausted by Homestead.  Much work to do on the CAT Team for Richard Childress in order to bring them back to the success they had a couple years ago.

#2. The #11 Team.  Hamlin was very successful in 2010; he had an average finish of 13th for the season and 7th for the Chase.  There is not much work needed in the off-season, but that doesn't mean the Gibbs crew won't be busy.  Neither Hamlin nor Gibbs like second place, and they won't settle for a "so close" finish.  Look for the #11 Team to be less worried about extra wins going into the Chase, and more concerned about dominance in the last ten races.  I think they are probably studying the Knaus playbook.

#1. Hendrick Motorsports.  Obviously not the team that finished #1 in points, but definitely the 9th, 13th and 21st place finishers.  Between drivers learning to communicate with new crew chiefs, moving teams from one garage to the other, and figuring out who has which pit crew, there is much to do in the next two months.  The next issue is which personality will be dominant at the 48/88 garage?  The Champ or the most popular driver?  Good luck Mr. Hendrick, I hope it works!

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Changes Made....Bring On February.

Who will crew chief the 88 next year? What changes will be made to the 24? How much strength will Hendrick put behind the 5? And will he take anything from the 48?

Asked...and answered.

The new changes: move the 24 to garage with the 5, move the 88 to garage with the 48, and crew chief pairings of Letarte to the 88, Gustafson to the 24, and McGrew to the 5.

Time will tell if the changes to the 24 and 88 spur success or not but the driver with the most to lose is Martin. His average finish over the final 5 races: 8th. That is almost as good as Hamlin's average of 7 over the last five races. Martin and Gustafson were clearly building steam for 2011. But then again, Martin won't be around in 2012.

Gustafson, try to take Gordon back to a championship. McGrew, give the old man a good curtain call. And Letarte, good luck with the spotlight!

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