Who Will Get The Wild Cards?

With only 6 races remaining until the cutoff for the Chase after Richmond, the race for the two coveted wildcard spots is tightening up.  Although anything could happen between now and the finish under the lights at Richmond, the field is pretty well down to 5 drivers: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon.  Paul Menard and Joey Logano are close to Gordon in points totals, but neither of them have are currently headed in the right direction, so a 6 race swing in their favor is not likely.  Ambrose, always a possible winner at Watkins Glen, would need more than 1 win to make the spot from so far back, which is probably not going to happen either.

The 10th position in the points is currently occupied by Clint Bowyer, a solid 55 points ahead of 11th, Kyle Busch.  If anyone is capable of putting together a string of good finishes, let alone wins, to get into the top 10, Kyle Busch is that person.  However, lately Busch has been having trouble putting together 500 miles without blowing an engine, so making up an average of 9.2 points per race on Bowyer would be a tough order.

So who out of the 5 wild card contenders will gain a Chase entry?  Let’s look at the last 6 races: Pocono (this week), Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond.  Out of the 5 contenders, only 3 have wins: Busch (1), Kahne (2), and Newman (1).  I personally believe that 2 wins will get you in this year, a thought for which time is dwindling to disprove.  That means that Kahne will be in this year's Chase.  It also means that now we have 4 drivers contending for 1 spot.

Of the four I would definitely say that Busch has the best shot.  He has more points than the others (not by much) and only Gordon has more wins at the coming 6 tracks.  In fact, Busch is more of a lock than anyone to compete for the win at Richmond: his average finish there is 4.7.  That is in 15 visits, during which he only has 2 finishes OUTSIDE THE TOP 5.  That is ridiculous, so much so that I had to look at the stats twice. 

Although Carl Edwards is just behind Busch in the points, I don't give him much of a chance to make this year's Chase.  Edwards has no wins this year, has only 2 top 5 finishes, and has just received a Crew Chief change.  Yes, Edwards does have the best finishing average at these 6 tracks (out of these 4 drivers), but right now points won't help unless you have wins, and Edwards is not even knocking on the door.

Ryan Newman is has a chance at the final spot for two reasons: he has one win and he is always a threat to win at Richmond and Pocono, as he is good on flat tracks.  Newman’s chances, however, hinge on him winning and Busch not winning.  Newman is unlikely to pass Busch in points because, although he is only 15 back, his average finish at the 6 tracks lags behind Busch's.

Lastly we have Jeff Gordon.  Gordon is in need of a hot streak, something he has not seen in a few years.  Gordon is 24 points behind Busch, but without a win he is helpless.  Gordon needs at least one win to make the Chase this year, and at the remaining tracks he has 23 previous wins.  Although many would think of him as a threat at Watkins Glen, Gordon has 5 wins each at Pocono, Atlanta, and Bristol.  If Gordon could catch some luck and momentum at the same time, he is in, but that is a huge if.

I should add that Kasey Kahne should be relieved that his 2 wins is likely to put him over the threshold, as his average finish at the next 6 venues is a dismal 18.3, with Michigan being the only one with an average finish under 17th.

All in all, I would say that the race for the Chase should be coming down to a good show.  Between drivers trying to win their way in to the Chase and those looking for more bonus points, a few fenders are likely in for some damage, or at least we can hope...

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Infineon To Daytona, One Wild Card After Another

This past weekend, NASCAR visited one of its two road courses. Entering Sonoma, California, most people understood that there were those who would benefit from the road course weekend, and, conversely, those that would suffer. I am sure there aren’t many people who thought Dale Earnhardt Jr. would come though the weekend with a great finish, although 41st was a bit low. Also, most people expected Marcos Ambrose, who now sits 2 points outside the top 20, to have a good weekend.

Great. We are all psychic.

Not so fast. Infineon threw some curves at the Sprint Cup field that may not have been expected. Some people left Infineon with poor finishes that were somewhat surprising.

After several instances of contact between Tony Stewart and Brian Vickers, both were relegated to bad finishes. Although Vickers is a good road course racer and Stewart is one of the all time greats, both left California with fewer points than they probably expected.

Along with Stewart and Vickers, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Mark Martin all left with sub-par finishes. Each of these drivers have some ability on road courses, especially Montoya, Martin and Kahne, but have to pick up points somewhere else in the next 10 races in an attempt to make the Chase.

Although the restrictor plate tracks are often seen as wild card races, Infineon has now placed several teams on the offensive in preparation for the Chase. Now, with all of that “cooking”, we head to, yes, a restrictor plate track.

The summer race at Daytona is always stressful for the teams on the cusp of the Chase, as they can be wiped out in the “big one” at any time. Will the teams leave Daytona jumbled up as they were this Monday? Time will tell.

Another question heading to Daytona is what other surprises the track will hold. Each year the Coke Zero 400, customarily held on July 4th weekend, is run on a slightly different track than its sister race, the Daytona 500. The hot, humid summer nights of central Florida usually produce a track with slightly less grip than the February race.

Normally, in the past few years, this has led to a slight stringing out of the field. However, with the repaving of the track during the last off-season, one has to wonder exactly how similar will the track be to the February’s running. Will the “two car tango” work the same way it did earlier in the year, or will the cars have trouble linking up later in a run.

My last question is who is the favorite heading into this weekend? Obviously the Daytona 500 winner, Trevor Bayne, will be without his ride from February, since the winning 500 car is placed in Daytona USA for a year. Even more, no driver has won the Daytona 500 and the July 400 mile race in the same year since 1982.

Certainly Earnhardt Jr. will loom large on everyone’s radar, but who else should be watched this weekend?

Two drivers that immediately come to mind are Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. Stewart has done very well in summer Daytona races, winning 3 in the last 6. He drafts well, thrives under the lights, and apparently thinks the July 4th post race fireworks are for him. Edwards has zero wins at Daytona, but finished 2nd and 6th in the two previous restrictor plate races this year, so he apparently loves the Tango.

Calm down ladies… I meant the Two Car Tango…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Should NASCAR Add One Or More Road Courses?

Ok, so we all new this question was coming this week. I saw several people on Twitter lament that we would have to listen to the commensurate road course talk. “Why does NASCAR only race two road course races?” “Will the ‘Road Course Ringers’ perform?” However, the question does deserve an answer.

For the past few years we have seen an influx of interest from open wheel racers from Indy car and Formula 1. It is only natural that with that interest will come fan interest from those loyal to open wheel racing. Wanting to take advantage of that interest, along with new international fans of drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya, from Colombia, and Marcos Ambrose, from Australia, NASCAR should consider adding another road course venue.

Understand, as a NASCAR fan I do not necessarily want another road course. I enjoy the two we currently see at the Sprint Cup level, Sonoma and Watkins Glenn, but two seems to be enough to quench my thirst. I simply think that NASCAR should consider the possibility that adding one could garner international fan support and, more importantly, viewership.

NASCAR has definitely begun recuperating its ratings and viewer losses of the past couple years, but if it could get a boost internationally, why not?

One of the biggest roadblocks to this decision in the past has been a cold response, at best, from its largest fan base, the Southeastern U.S. Most of the lifelong fans did not enjoy the road course racing in the ‘90s due to the slower, green-flag, racing with little side by side action.

However, with the addition of two-wide restarts a couple years ago, racing at these two stops has gotten more aggressive. Also, more teams have shown strength there in the past few years, a departure from 15 years ago when only a handful of teams had a realistic shot at victory. These two changes have helped make road course racing a little more appealing to the average NASCAR fan.

A fellow blogger, “Walking Eagle”, suggested the same in a comment on this site which spurred this article. I replied back to him that I agreed that they should look at it, and possibly look at adding a road course race in the Chase. I understand, and agree, that most fans would emphatically disagree, which is why I think NASCAR should look at it along with a couple other changes.

I think that NASCAR should immediately (2012) move the Southern 500 at Darlington back to Labor Day. The Fontana race has done so-so and would do just as well on another weekend. Give the fans back a great tradition!

I also think that NASCAR should move the Chase finale back to Atlanta. Weather in Homestead is great in November, no argument. But the racing is mediocre at best. They have made strides with the graduated banking, I agree, but they don’t have the checkered flag finishes like Atlanta. Leave the fans with a show and they will walk out of the stands (or away from the TV) eager for Daytona.

Well, there are my thoughts on the matter. Now I don’t have to mumble under my breath every time Wally Dallenbach says “wheel hop” this Sunday. Please let me know your thoughts on the matter!


Follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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High Hopes In Cali

This week the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams will be preparing to revisit California. Sunday’s race at Sonoma, CA will be the first of two road course races this year, which brings many different emotions to the forefront.

For those who love road course racing and do very well at it, excitement abounds. Marcos Ambrose is probably lying awake in bed as I am typing this, constantly looking at the clock to see if it’s time to leave yet. Last year he lost due to a late race fuel concern, and I am sure he is eager to return. Also, Jeff Gordon simply loves the track. He should. He has won the race at the Infineon Raceway at Sears Point 5 times, including 3 in a row from 1998-2000.

A few others are excited about this week’s race, but less out of love for the track and more out of a need for a change of pace. Juan Pablo Montoya has one win at the road course, but will be relieved just to be away from an oval. Over the past few weeks Montoya has been on probation and shoved around quite regularly on track. This past week he had a fuel issue was run over from behind by Andy Lally. Montoya knows that this week, the only way someone like Mr. Lally will see the rear of the 42 car is if they are lapped.

I am sure this week will also bring its normal amount of road course ringers. These racers, like Boris Said and Ron Fellows, see very little NASCAR Sprint Cup driving time, but always get plenty of press heading into the road course races. Of course, all that hubbub dies down as they usually do well just to finish in the top ten.

Last, but not least, there is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Most people think that Sonoma is Junior’s worst track, as he has an average finish there of 20th and has no top 10 finishes there. However, he has worse average finishes at Fontana, Watkins Glen, Indianapolis and Homestead. Part of the reason is that Earnhardt Jr. has had 5 finishes between 11th and 13th.

Although Earnhardt has made an extra effort to be competitive at Sonoma, it always seems to not work out for him. His performance there has definitely improved, though, from when he began in the Sprint Cup Series in 2000. During Junior’s first race there he apparently made contact with quite a few competitors. He had such a rough day, in fact, that his father, the legendary driver of the #3, suggested on the radio that someone should tell Junior to hit the pace car because he had already hit everything else.

In January of 2007, as most fans remember, he had a fiery wreck in a Corvette road course car at Sonoma while practicing for an American Lemans Series race. He had entered the race in order to boost his road course driving ability. Instead he narrowly escaped the wreck and entered into the roughest four years of his driving career.

This week’s race at Sonoma definitely will bring emotions of all types. Some will be eager to get there, others eager to get home. And others will be looking for something specific. Jeff Gordon will be looking to solidify his return to dominance. Ambrose will be looking for his first win. Montoya will be looking for some comfort in turning right. And Earnhardt Jr. will be looking for a first top 10.

Here’s hoping they all get what they’re looking for…


Follow JD on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Oh, What A Difference A Year Can Make

Last year, the talk of the garage, at times, was that the two car team of Earnhardt Ganassi Racing was on the rise and could be the next team to challenge for a spot amongst the series’ best. They won 4 races, including the Daytona 500, the Brickyard 400, the race at Watkins Glen, and the fall race at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. And, although coming up short, both of their drivers, Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya, were on the edge of a Chase berth during the summer.

Down the garage just a bit, there was another team that was struggling for its existence. Although it had the name of the other 7 time champ, Richard Petty Motorsports was being run by George Gillett, Jr. straight into the ground. The team had debt up to its eyeballs, drivers jumping ship, like Kasey Kahne, and a rumor that the doors would be closing. The drivers that currently drive for RPM, Marcos Ambrose and A.J. Allmendinger, were struggling. Ambrose finished 2010 with 2 top five’s and 4 top ten’s, while A.J. finished slightly better with 2 top five’s and 8 top ten’s.

But my, oh my, how things can change in the off season.

RPM was bought back by Richard Petty and a group of investors, placing the control of the team back under someone with proven ability to win in NASCAR. Although there was much to do in the off-season, and many unknowns for the coming year, the RPM crew worked hard, and apparently well. In the first 11 races of this season, the RPM duo has compiled a combined 2 top five’s and 5 top ten finishes. Another great stat for the RPM team is that in 2010 they had a total of 11 DNF’s. So far, for 2011, they have only 1.

Meanwhile, over at EGR, Montoya and McMurray are struggling to find their rhythm from last year. Although Montoya began the year with a head full of steam, lately he has been deflated. His average finish for the first six races was 11th, however, for the last four, his average finish has been 28.5. His teammate has had only two top ten finishes so far, and ranks a dismal 26th in laps run on the lead lap.

We all know about the wide array of changes made at RPM in the off-season to bring about their improvement in finishes. What we don’t know, and Mr. Ganassi, no doubt, will be working to find out, is what was changed at EGR to bring about their disappointing racing.


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Which Will Make The Chase, Jeff Gordon Or Denny Hamlin?

With nine Sprint Cup races in the book for 2011, the picture of which teams will compete for the 2011 Chase is quickly coming into focus. With exception of the two road courses, teams have faces each type of track that they will race on, and have had enough time to establish a foundation for the rest of the season.

There have been a few people who have had surprising success this year, some lasting and some starting to fade. The RPM duo of Almendinger and Ambrose had some initial success this year, running strong in the first few races of the year. However, now that the new has worn off, the two have had some struggles and are currently 11th and 23rd in the points respectively. They are, of course, much higher than last year, but with poor performances in the past few weeks, expect them to slide a bit more until their new teams and the RPM leadership can get some organization done that they had little time for since the team reformed late last fall.

Other surprises, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman, are having a good deal of success. Both have had little success in the past five years. Newman, in nine races, has one less top 5 finish than he accumulated in all of 2010. If he continues at this pace he will have his best season since 2003, when he finished 6th in the points. He also had 8 wins that year. Earnhardt is again driving with confidence. If Steve Letarte can keep the 88 crew “between the ditches,” victory lane will come, at least once or twice, and a Chase berth is likely.

Two drivers noticeably absent from the top ten in points are Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Both of these drivers are considered near the best in their sport, yet they are having trouble getting their footing in 2011. If you had to choose, though, which driver do you think will make the Chase?

Hamlin is currently 17th in the points, 97 points behind the leader. If Hamlin cannot gain ground in the next 10 races, he will have to rely on wins to gain a Chase berth. Of course Hamlin can move up: he is only 37 points behind Tony Stewart in 10th. Hamlin has not, however, had very many good finishes. In nine races, he only has 2 top 10’s and 1 top 5, and suspicion is now rising that communication between he and crew chief Mike Ford is sub par at best.

Gordon, 16th in points, is also well out of his comfort zone. He is accustomed to competing, if not dominating, the points standings and has better vision through his rear view mirror than his windshield. However, early successes with new crew chief Alan Gustafson give reason for optimism. Gordon has only 3 top tens, but the up side is that they were all top 5’s and one was a win. Gordon can obviously compete. If the 24 crew can avoid more wrecks and can make a few adjustments, Gordon could be tough to beat late in the season.

I believe that, if only one of the two make the Chase, it will be Jeff Gordon. Although I would never bet against Hamlin, one simply has to look at the most important relationship in the garage: the driver – crew chief relationship. Gordon’s relationship with Gustafson is just beginning and, considering their personalities and drive will likely be successful. Hamlin’s relationship with Ford, however, is declining due to aggravation and distrust from last season’s end. If Joe Gibbs and crew cannot mend this due, the 11 team is in for a long season indeed.


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Hard Fought Finishes All Around

Yesterday’s 500k race at Phoenix International Raceway looked like a group of short track racers trying to race at Talladega. Drivers were beating and banging on each other, and when a wreck happened, many cars became involved. At just after mid-race, a Talladega style “big one” happened due to a spin by Brian Vickers which may or may not have been caused by Matt Kenseth. I don’t want to take sides.

The race finished with a long-overdue win by Jeff Gordon who snapped the longest winless streak of his career (66 races). Gordon cemented his win with a late race pass on Kyle Busch in which he “loosened up” the hard nosed driver who himself was trying for his second 3 series weekend sweep.

Both of these drivers, and a few others, had top ten finishes on a day that some would have settled for less. Kyle Busch was involved in a wreck with Carl Edwards earlier in the race which sent Edwards airborne off the inside concrete curb. Busch battled most of the race with an ill-handling racecar.

Finishing third, Jimmie Johnson battled his way to the front throughout the race from a 28th starting spot. Much of Johnson’s race was spent dodging the carnage of other cars. Although he led briefly, Johnson did not have the car to challenge for the win, but in true Johnson form, he always finds his way into the top five by the end of the race.

Kevin Harvick, who was not so “Happy”, finished fourth after clawing his way forward after pit stop miscues sent him to the back, steaming all the way. Two thirds of the way through the race, Harvick seemed to settle in and began making his way to the front. Harvick did lead one lap and received the ever important bonus point.

Further back, A.J. Allmendinger and Dale Earnhardt Jr. both finished out with much needed top ten finishes. For Allmendinger, a ninth place finish at Phoenix could give he and his RPM teammate, Marcos Ambrose, a little footing to begin the 2011 season. After all of the off season changes with RPM being shut down, bought, and reopened, those teams need all of the momentum they can get. Both Allmendinger and Ambrose were competitive and around the top ten all race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. stayed toward the back of the top twenty for most of the race, after starting a dismal 35th. Junior quickly moved up to the top twenty, but due to wrecks and a loose wheel with less than 100 laps to go, he became a lap down and hoping for no cautions. With the luck he has not had in a couple years, the field cycled through green flag pit stops, and with a late race caution, Junior restarted in the top 15. Junior battled with Denny Hamlin in the final few laps and came away with his first top ten of 2011.


Read more by Joseph Davis at the Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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What Do Carl Edwards, Marcos Ambrose, And Dale Earnhardt Jr. Have In Common?

The 2010 season saw many surprises.  Between "Have at it boys!", return of the spoiler, and the rookie of the year driving the "Extenze" car, I'm not sure any of us have an idea what to expect from 2011!  There were, however, some changes at the end of the year that could indicate an upward trend for 3 drivers.

Edwards, Ambrose, and Earnhardt Jr. each experienced some change in direction at the end of the year and I am sure that each of them are eager to begin 2011!  For Edwards, the changes came earlier in the year, but in the last 5 races the 99 team obviously began reeping their rewards.  Edwards' average finish for the last five races was 9.2, with back to back wins to finish the season.  I am sure the 99 team is eager to see if they can continue their dominance from the last two races and compete again with Jimmie Johnson.

For Ambrose, 2010 was not a good year.  He had 6 top ten finishes this year, with none coming in the final 10 races.  To make it worse, with only 5 or so races left, he had no definite ride for next year: the team he was moving to, RPM, was possibly going out of business.  Thanks to the King, the outlook now for Ambrose in 2011 is much better.  He will be with RPM, a much better team than he was with in 2010, and will have a much better shot at winning.

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. had much to be thankful for this past Thanksgiving!  For one, the 2010 season was over.  2010 brought nothing but confusion to Jr: he had great starts and the handling would go away, or he would unload a so so car and could not improve all weekend.  Nothing seemed to work.  Now in 2011 he will have a new Crew Chief, new team, new shop, and a new roommate, Jimmie Johnson.  I'm sure Earnhardt Jr is as eager to begin 2011 as the other two drivers, if not more so, but is also a little anxious.  If he does not perform with the changes Hendrick made in the off season, there will be no doubt where the problem is.  I for one hope that does not happen, and have a hunch that it won't.  While typing that I'm trying my best impersonation of Dale Earnhardt's trademark S--- eating grin...

Bring on 2011!!!

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