Drivers To Watch In The Daytona 500

With all of NASCAR's rule changes enveloped in a new car design, this year's Daytona 500 is full of uknowns.  The cars will all be bunched up again into large packs, but the ability of cars to drive up and side draft alone may be greater than it has in years.  With a change in maneuverability and the abandoning of 2 car drafts, it will be each driver for himself (or herself, of course) for more than the last few hundred yards.

This new car design and how it affects the cars in the draft at 195 mph has changed how most drivers view the race.  Some, such as Carl Edwards, say the racing is much more fun.  But others may be unsure about their chances and their strategies entering NASCAR's premier event because they have either never raced this style of restrictor plate racing or they had minimal experience with it prior to the 2 car tandem racing that developed after the COT was put in place.

The wild and aggressive style of racing from this car definitely lends itself to drivers like Kevin Harvick who has won the Sprint Unlimited and his Gatorade Duel.  Also benefited by this style would be drivers like Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Greg Biffle, all who like aggressive racing and are very good at handling cars that are moving around.

Some of the drivers who had plenty of experience and success at the old plate racing style, such as Gordon, Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip, may do well due to their experience at sensing the momentum of various lines and working their way to the front of a pack.  However, Waltrip has had much less seat time in recent years due to his semi-retirement, Earnhardt Jr. has not been pleased with his car's ability it pull up to cars in front of him, and Gordon has not won at a Daytona since 2005 and has an average finish of 20.8 since then.

There are a few new drivers who may do well this weekend.  All of the media's attention is on rookie of the year candidate Danica Patrick for getting the pole for this weeks race.  She does have a very fast car, but more attention should definitely be paid to drivers such as Austin Dillon who finished 3rd in his Gatorade Duel behind Kyle Busch and Kasey Kahne.  In that race he had an impressive driver rating of 111 due to his ability to not only finish near the front, but to have maintained that position most of the race.  Also, Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne was quite strong in his Gatorade Duel, leading most of the race prior to wrecking.  If the 21 crew has a strong backup, Bayne may be seen near the front at the end of Sunday's race.

On particular driver who be a bit of a sentimental favorite for many this week is Mark Martin.  Martin has said he does not plan to come back next year for Michael Waltrip, and although he may still drive a limited schedule, the likelihood he will be in a top tier, or near top tier, ride at Daytona in the future is slim to none.  After coming close so many times, it would be great to see him finally win on NASCAR's largest stage.

Whoever wins Sunday, you can guarantee their will be plenty of passes, some extremely fast racing, and yes, some large wrecks.  As drivers are just becoming accustomed to the Gen 6 car's handling and how the drafts and "air bubbles" are being affected, as we have seen in the past week, there will be plenty of torn up cars going back to the garage. 

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'01 Til Now, With Dale Earnhardt...

This week marks 12 years since the 2001 Daytona 500 which ended in the tragic death of NASCAR great Dale Earnhardt.  In the wake of Earnhardt's death, NASCAR embarked on the largest safety renovation in its history, resulting in the safety of the sport in 2013.  After NASCAR celebrated the coming Daytona 500 with a remebrance of Dale Earnhardt, one must think about what might have been.

How would the sport have progressed in the past 12 years had Earnhardt not died?  Would safety measures have been made and what other differences would their be?  Lets take a look back at how the past 12 years would have been with Dale Earnhardt around.

Imagine the victory lane celebration February 18, 2001 when Michael Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Dale Earnhardt finished 1, 2, 3.  Earnhardt now has an established NASCAR Cup Series team, capable of winning and competing each week.  He just finished second in the points in 2000 and is on the upswing again in his career.  After winning a couple races in 2001 he finishes a close second to Jeff Gordon in the 2001 Cup Championship.

In the next couple of years, driver injuries and another driver death add to the recent deaths of Kenny Irwin and Adam Petty to force NASCAR into further safety measures.  Only a handful of drivers still use open-faced helmets, but all drivers use some form of head and neck restraining device.  NASCAR is also developing safety measure in the cars to absorb more force on impact.

After finishing 5th in the 2002 Cup Series Championship points, Dale Earnhardt decides to retire after the 2003 season.  Dale Jr. finished the 2002 season 3rd in points propelling him to a Championship challenge in 2003.  New talk by NASCAR about a wider, taller, safer car with identical front ends for all manufacturers is met by contention from NASCAR veterans.  NASCAR adapts the front ends to incorporate more brand identity.

In 2004 Dale Earnhardt joins Darrell Waltrip in the broadcasting booth for a few races to add commentary, but decides against a long term contract citing too much hot air in the booth coming from Waltrip as a reason to stay on pit road.  With late season coaching from his father, Dale Jr. wins the 2004 Championship, giving DEI its first Championship and the Earnhardt family its eighth. 

Over the next few years NASCAR sees many changes amongst teams.  There is an addition of a 4th DEI team, as Earnhardt has recruited Tony Stewart away from Joe Gibbs Racing, making the DEI stable every bit as strong as NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports.  Hendrick, losing hardheaded driver Kyle Busch to JGR, adds newcomer Juan Pablo Montoya from F1 in a single car partnership with Chip Ganassi and adds Mark Martin from Jack Roush's stable, outbidding startup owner Ginn Racing.

Heading into the current decade, NASCAR has now begun to eclipse the NFL in total market share, and continues to expand into new markets, despite a steep downturn in the economy.  However, fans still appreciate NASCAR's roots, such as its annual Labor Day weekend at the Southern 500 at Darlington, South Carolina.

No, that is not how things turned out, and probably light years from how it may have happened, but one could definitely see how the sport would have been different had the '01 500 ended differently.  Dale Earnhardt was a huge part of the sport's success, not always perfect, but always a part of the conversation.  No doubt NASCAR would be different, but one can only speculate in what ways.

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Top Three Stories For NASCAR In 2012

NASCAR was filled with storylines in 2011.  They ranged from the amazing to the downright disappointing.  We had a contender suspended for a race, a well-respected broadcaster ranted at with profanities, and the first championship decided by a tie-breaker rule.  And those examples were just in the last few races!

What crazy things will happen in 2012?  We just don’t know.  But what we do know is that there are several questions from last year that will be answered in 2012, and will be cause for conversation.

1.  Has NASCAR finally solved the mystery of the “Two Car Tango?”  For quite a

while now NASCAR has been trying to find a way to break up or severely limit the two car drafting style that has plagued the restrictor plate races.  Some readers will hate the fact that I wrote plagued, but tough. 

Two car drafting has taken the individual racer out of the equation.  No longer is a driver in full control of where he takes his car or whom he drafts with.  There are team orders, manufacturer orders, and only the last 20 laps are meaningful.

NASCAR has further limited the temperature allowed in the cooling system, a direction that rendered no benefit last season.  They have also allowed a larger restrictor plate which can give more throttle response and perhaps lessen the need to link up.  The most likely change to truly impact the driver’s ability, or rather their desire, to tandem draft is that they are taking away rear downforce by changing the angle and size of the rear spoiler.  This will make the two car draft less comfortable for the lead driver.

Will it work?  Ask me in February.

2.  Can the best loser in NASCAR become the next winner in NASCAR?  After losing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship to Tony Stewart by a tie-breaker rule, Carl Edwards said he would be a good sport about losing, and he has done a great job.  However, good manners aside, I wouldn’t anticipate Edwards holding back as the Chase approaches.

Carl Edwards has finished in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, and although he may be glad to have been so competitive and have won so many races, any onlooker can tell he is hungry for one particular trophy.  There have been other great drivers to have gone without winning a championship, Mark Martin for example, but one has to believe that Carl will win one soon.

3.  Who made the best offseason changes?  One of the most common questions heading into any season is who made the most of their changes in preparation for the coming year.  Last year the big question was the Hendrick Motorsports shakeup.  This year there were changes from Champion Tony Stewart changing crew chiefs to Kurt Busch joining a 3^rd tier team (at best) after losing his job at Penske.  There were changes at MWR, RPM, EGR, and every other team from different crew chiefs or different drivers to additions of directors of competition or changes to crew.  Who made the best changes?  That we may not know until well into the 2012 schedule

What do you think will be the biggest question mark for the 2012 season?

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bumpdrafter/273756966011479

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The Musical Chairs Of NASCAR

Every year, as the NASCAR season winds down, the Sprint Cup "silly season" begins to heat up again.  Most of the larger named drivers and teams try to have moves and plans nailed down by late summer at the latest, but most of the smaller teams have to make quick adjustments for the coming season late in the year.

This year is, of course, no different.  Most of us followed the signings of Carl Edwards and Danica Patrick as the larger ships to fall this year, but many questions are unanswered for several drivers heading into the offseason.

With the anticipated closing or reconfiguration at Red Bull Racing, Brian Vickers is currently awaiting come concrete plans for next year.  As Vickers' teammate, Kasey Kahne, is moving to the 5 car at Hendrick Motorsports, much curiousity has been given to what plans would Mark Martin have for 2012.  Now, with sources saying that Martin will be driving part time in the 00 for Michael Waltrip Racing, everyone is scrambling to see where David Reutimann will be driving.

The two current big question marks are Reutimann and David Ragan.  Roush Fenway Racing is currently saying that they are anticipating running 3 teams next year with the #6 running a partial schedule.  With that change, Reutimann and Ragan, both race winners, could be a great grab for some of the smaller NASCAR Teams.

As interesting as it is to see who is up for grabs, the possibilities of what seats may or may not come to fruition is astounding.  There with full time rides dropping at RFR, MWR, and probably at RCR with Bowyer leaving, some of the mid-tier two car teams may decide to add a seat to take advantage of a possible opening in the top 35. 

Richard Petty Motorsports has already voiced interest in the possibility of adding a 3rd team to their stable of Allmendinger and Ambrose.  Of course, they were toying with the possibility of an available Danica Patrick or Mark Martin at the time.  Also, Chip Ganassi may see an advantage to adding a car to his EGR stable as may Roger Penske with Penske Racing.

The fact is, there is a probability that going into the 2012 Sprint Cup season there will only be one 4 car team: Hendrick Motorsports.  The key reason for this is, of course, the lack of large sponsorship dollars needed to pay for a top tier team.  Will fields drop below 43, I doubt it, but there may well be a couple more start and park teams.

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Hendrick Motorsports Pushing The Envelope

For several years, the Hendrick organization, especially the 48 team, has been known for preparing for the Chase and then excelling during the final 10 races of the year.  Often the Lowe’s team has sacrificed domination earlier in the year in order to have dominant cars prepared for the Chase.

This weekend at the New Hampshire International Speedway, Hendrick Motorsports will be pushing the envelope.  Often teams will debut new chassis throughout the year, but this week at least 3 of the 4 Hendrick teams will be sporting a new ride.  Johnson, Earnhardt Jr., and Martin are all listed as bringing a new chassis to the “Magic Mile”, and both the 88 and the 5 are listed as untested new chassis.   The 24 may or may not be new, but they do not generally post their chassis selection prior to the race weekend. 

One would have to wonder if the Hendrick teams have found something in particular or if it is merely coincidence that they are bringing 3 new chassis to the track this week.  Although it is quite possible that they are all non-related, it looks like they possibly have found something in their engineering that they feel comfortable will produce results, especially since they are relying mostly on their 7 post shaker and computer models, etc. for their information on the untested chassis.

Someone more experienced and knowledgeable about the engineering and fabrication that go into the chassis development could probably give more insight about how much testing is needed these days prior to the track, but from someone on the outside looking in, this seems to be an aggressive move.   Of course, Hendrick has made some aggressive moves in recent months…  After moving three of your drivers to different teams within the Hendrick stable at the end of last year, sending three new cars to the track on one weekend does seem mild.

Last weekend Hendrick drivers moved around quite a bit.  Johnson moved down 2 spots and lost 7 points, Gordon moved down 8 spots and lost 22 points, Earnhardt Jr. gained 5 spots and lost 1 point, and Martin gained 14 points on 13^th place, the consolation spot at the end of the year.  If Hendrick has found something in its chassis engineering, the teams could definitely be dominant this weekend.  Three of the four drivers have won before at Loudon: Gordon twice, Johnson three times, and Martin once.

Time has seemed to look favorably on Hendrick’s last aggressive move, and time will tell on this move as well.  (Two and a half days to be exact…) 

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Danica To The Lead, In Silly Season

While the 2011-2012 Silly Season is in full swing, it has, to this point, been less than dramatic. The main players (Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, and Mark Martin) have either already signed with their current team or aren’t generating much buzz. That is, with exception to Carl Edwards.

Edwards’ contract with Jack Roush and Roush Fenway Racing comes to a close at the end of 2011, and although most people have all but signed the contract for him, Edwards is still a free agent…kind of. He is weighing his options, yet few people think he would leave a team that has made him a contender for a few years now. Be that as it may, his top suitor, Joe Gibbs Racing according to rumors, will continue to gain his attention.

While all of this has been slowly developing, Danica Patrick has been fulfilling her obligations to Andretti Autosport in the Indy Car series, until Friday night. She returned Friday to race in the Nationwide Series race at Daytona International speedway for JRMotorsports.

When she raced there in February, Patrick was timid at best in the two car packs. Although she managed a respectable 14th place finish there, she wowed few. However, in this week’s race Patrick seemed aggressive and comfortable. She was even more comfortable for all of the off-track conversation.

Patrick has been asked before whether she will move from Indy Car to a full time NASCAR ride, a topic she has kept at arms length. This week, though, she simply reacted as if the intention is there but the deal just has not been signed. If she is truly interested in a 2012 ride, the season will definitely get silly.

Danica is no doubt one of the best marketing opportunities that has come to NASCAR in quite a while, but to this point had not proven herself worthy of a full time ride and a shot at a Sprint Cup ride in the future. Although I am sure any team would have jumped at signing her, she is much more profitable to them if she is contending for wins.

In 2010 she had only one finish inside the top 20, often finishing several laps behind the leaders. Yet in 2011, it seems as though Patrick has gotten more comfortable with both the different car and the different style of racing. In only 6 races she has posted 3 top 10 finishes and has only one finish outside the top 20. That is definitely a turnaround from a year ago.

The main question that will have to be answered is where will she go? JRMotorsports would surely be glad to sign her for a full season in the Nationwide Series for 2012, but they do not have a Sprint Cup team, which she will probably want for at least a few races in 2012. No matter where she goes, plan on hearing about it for the rest of this year.

Oh yea, has Carl Edwards signed yet??

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Infineon To Daytona, One Wild Card After Another

This past weekend, NASCAR visited one of its two road courses. Entering Sonoma, California, most people understood that there were those who would benefit from the road course weekend, and, conversely, those that would suffer. I am sure there aren’t many people who thought Dale Earnhardt Jr. would come though the weekend with a great finish, although 41st was a bit low. Also, most people expected Marcos Ambrose, who now sits 2 points outside the top 20, to have a good weekend.

Great. We are all psychic.

Not so fast. Infineon threw some curves at the Sprint Cup field that may not have been expected. Some people left Infineon with poor finishes that were somewhat surprising.

After several instances of contact between Tony Stewart and Brian Vickers, both were relegated to bad finishes. Although Vickers is a good road course racer and Stewart is one of the all time greats, both left California with fewer points than they probably expected.

Along with Stewart and Vickers, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Mark Martin all left with sub-par finishes. Each of these drivers have some ability on road courses, especially Montoya, Martin and Kahne, but have to pick up points somewhere else in the next 10 races in an attempt to make the Chase.

Although the restrictor plate tracks are often seen as wild card races, Infineon has now placed several teams on the offensive in preparation for the Chase. Now, with all of that “cooking”, we head to, yes, a restrictor plate track.

The summer race at Daytona is always stressful for the teams on the cusp of the Chase, as they can be wiped out in the “big one” at any time. Will the teams leave Daytona jumbled up as they were this Monday? Time will tell.

Another question heading to Daytona is what other surprises the track will hold. Each year the Coke Zero 400, customarily held on July 4th weekend, is run on a slightly different track than its sister race, the Daytona 500. The hot, humid summer nights of central Florida usually produce a track with slightly less grip than the February race.

Normally, in the past few years, this has led to a slight stringing out of the field. However, with the repaving of the track during the last off-season, one has to wonder exactly how similar will the track be to the February’s running. Will the “two car tango” work the same way it did earlier in the year, or will the cars have trouble linking up later in a run.

My last question is who is the favorite heading into this weekend? Obviously the Daytona 500 winner, Trevor Bayne, will be without his ride from February, since the winning 500 car is placed in Daytona USA for a year. Even more, no driver has won the Daytona 500 and the July 400 mile race in the same year since 1982.

Certainly Earnhardt Jr. will loom large on everyone’s radar, but who else should be watched this weekend?

Two drivers that immediately come to mind are Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. Stewart has done very well in summer Daytona races, winning 3 in the last 6. He drafts well, thrives under the lights, and apparently thinks the July 4th post race fireworks are for him. Edwards has zero wins at Daytona, but finished 2nd and 6th in the two previous restrictor plate races this year, so he apparently loves the Tango.

Calm down ladies… I meant the Two Car Tango…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Earnhardt Returning To Familiar Ground

After posting an average finish of 19th over his career, Dale Earnhardt Jr. reaffirmed on Sunday that he has returned to competitiveness. Of course he was already in the top 5 in points and has been for several weeks, but when listening to people speak about his chances in 2011, one would have to think something would change mid season. This week he showed he was intent on staying near the top of the points.

Prior to Sunday, Junior had not finished in the top 10 at Pocono since the spring of 2008. In that race he finished 4th, then followed it up with a win at Michigan the next week, his last win. He may not be one of the strongest drivers at the 2 mile oval, but plan on seeing him near the front.

Although this weeks track is the location of his last win, it is not the only “Familiar Ground” Dale Earnhardt Jr. is returning to. It has been quite a while since Junior has been expected to contend for a win on a weekly basis, a change not lost on the North Carolina native. He has alluded on multiple occasions to the fact that he would rather be expected to win and get a decent finish than to not be on the radar at all.

Even if Dale Jr. is not at or near the front for a majority of the race, don’t worry, he will get there by the end. That has indeed been one of the most refreshing changes for the 88 team. Earnhardt Jr. has finished, on average, 3.5 places better than his average running position this year. In fact, in 10 of 14 races this year he has surged forward at the end. That means that the 88 team is making the right changes coming down the stretch.

The most undeniable reason for that statistic is that the communication between driver and crew chief is, beyond a doubt, better than it has been for quite a while. The other reason for the late race improvement is that, not only has Earnhardt’s confidence in his crew chief grown, but his self-confidence has grown as well.

Also, Michigan is a notorious fuel mileage track, which will seem typical for 2011. Due to the long, green-flag runs, common at Michigan, gas mileage is always at the forefront when preparing for this weeks race. Given the 88 team’s ability to stay close on fuel mileage races in 2011, expect to see Earnhardt’s crew chief, Steve Letarte, have the strategy down pat should it come to it on Sunday.

For Hendrick Motorsports in general, Michigan has its ups and downs. Jeff Gordon has 2 wins at the track, his average finish there is 11.4, and he has eight 2nd place finishes. Mark Martin has 5 wins at Michigan, an average finish of 13.6, but his last three finishes there were 16th or worse. And Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of only 15.2, has no wins, and only has 2 top 5’s in 18 starts there.

Follow Joseph on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Can Hendrick Motorsports Return To Victory Lane At Talladega?

No other owner has quite the amount of restrictor plate success in his garage as Rick Hendrick. Sure, Richard Childress can boast a good bit of success, both by the late Dale Earnhardt and in recent years with Kevin Harvick and Clint Boyer. However, he still comes up short of Hendrick’s 17 wins at Daytona and Talladega. If you add the wins that Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Mark Martin had before coming to HMS, the team has the experience of 26 wins heading into this weeks race at Talladega.

What is somewhat surprising of late at the restrictor plate tracks is that HMS has not visited victory lane at either track in 14 races. From July of 2001 to October of 2007, the trio of Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. won 15 of 26 plate races. Yet since 2007 they have been relegated to doing post race interviews barely within earshot of the victory party.

Even worse, in the 7 races since an HMS win on a restrictor plate track, the for teams have only added up a total of 6 top 5 finishes out of a possible 28. The good news for 88 fans is that 3 of those top 5’s were posted by their driver. The bad news is that the last time Junior posted a top 5 at Talladega was two years and four races ago.

As if the HMS teams needed any more discouragement for the coming race, they again have to return to 2 car pack racing. Since it started in 2010, the new “form” of plate racing has not smiled on HMS drivers. Although Dale Jr. and Jeff Gordon showed some strength in the season opener at Daytona, they never were able to dominate the way they have so often. It is highly likely that, unless they want to rely on being lucky like the rest of the field, they will have to adapt some new strategy to regain their plate dominance.

If there is anyone out of the HMS stable that has concreted his Talladega strategy, it may be Jimmy Johnson. Although he has not had a top 5 there in 4 years, he has repeatedly had a solid top 10 in each of the last 4 chase races there. His strategy there seems to have been survive to the last lap then get all you can. No doubt this strategy is what Johnson will go with this fall, but in the current season where wins are premium to solidify a chase berth, look for some aggressive racing from each of the HMS drivers this weekend.

Be sure to follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter !
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Will Hendrick Motorsports Return To Domination At Martinsville?

Few tracks have been dominated by Hendrick Motorsports the past ten years like Martinsville Speedway. Out of the twenty races in the past ten years, HMS drivers have won ten. A fifty percent win percentage is not too bad. However, the only number that has dominated the past three visits to the Virginia short track has been the number eleven.

Denny Hamlin has had a firm grasp on the key to the winners circle at Martinsville Speedway the past three years, but is currently having a slow start to the 2011 season. Although he definitely knows how to win at the half mile track, one would question if his team is even on a winning path at this point in the season.

Even though the past nine races at Martinsville have been won by either Johnson or Hamlin, the current win leader there is Jeff Gordon. He may not have won there since 2005, but he does have 7 wins there and in the races since his last win there, only once did he finish outside the top five. I am certain that his new crew chief, Alan Gustafson, will be reminding him of his last second place finish to Jimmie Johnson there, in which Johnson gave him some memorable front bumper love.

Johnson may want to exact some revenge of his own. Fresh off a disappointing late race loss at Auto Club Speedway to Kevin Harvick, Johnson will undoubtedly want to return to victory lane at Martinsville. He has not won there in four races, and may be slightly remembering the view from there. I doubt that however since he has won there six times and has been quite dominant there in the past 5 years.

The other two Hendrick drivers are probably not on anyone’s favorite list this week, but should definitely be kept on any dark horse list. Mark Martin is not having a great beginning to the season, but has had some solid finishes as of late. He has not had the dominant finishes at Martinsville that Gordon and Johnson have had, but he is a two time winner there, the last win coming in 2000 while he was driving for Jack Roush.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. doesn’t top anyone’s list of Martinsville greats, nor has he won there. But at which track has he led the most laps in his NASCAR Sprint Cup career? Yep, that was an easy one, Martinsville. You read it right, he has led more at the half mile paperclip than he has led at Talladega. Of course, there are more laps in a Martinsville race than in two Talladega races, but to put it into perspective, he has led more laps there than Daytona and Richmond combined, sites of 5 of his wins. Also, the most top five finishes he has at any track is 8. He has reached that number at Talladega (5 wins), Richmond (3 wins), Daytona (2 wins), Atlanta (1 win), and, you guessed it, Martinsville.

Now, I’m definitely not making a pick for this weekend off the above paragraph alone, but I definitely think that the 48 will not be the only HMS car in the top five this weekend. The question, still, is will they again claim the Martinsville victory lane as their turf… We will know in a few days…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Who Is Up For Grabs In 2011?

Every year in NASCAR there are changes. Such is life. Each season people move from one team to another or new faces come to the Sprint Cup series from Nationwide or other forms of racing.  What will change in 2011?

After a quick look through the top drivers from last year, 2011 could prove eventful when it comes to driver moves.  At the end of 2011, eight big names are coming to the end of their contracts: Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Ryan Newman and Mark Martin.

Out of this bunch, I believe Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton are pretty well set to stay put. Hamlin is on the edge of a championship and Gibbs would probably chase any other owner away from him.  Burton is entering the last few years of his career and likely would want to end it with a top tier team, something that would not happen if he left RCR.

The only driver that will definitely be moving after Homestead is Mark Martin. With Kahne set to take his ride in 2012, most figured Martin would say farewell in 2011, a thought Martin put to rest in the off season. The question is where will he go.  Will he go back to a limited schedule?  Or will he possibly be slated to start a new car for Stewart Haas?  Only time will tell.

The other four drivers fall into two groups: those who could be moved by money, and those who could be moved for more success. Edwards and Biffle, both from the Roush Fenway stable, will most likely be the object of any possible bidding wars. Both of these drivers, especially Edwards, can still compete for championships, and will likely bring a pretty penny.

The two remaining drivers, Newman and Montoya, had some success in 2010, but both teams were inconsistent and could not make the Chase. Both of these drivers want to compete, and if inconsistency turns to stagnation, look for a change.

With any of the last four drivers moving a domino effect could open a few seats, one or two of which could always be filled by new faces. It has been two years since NASCAR had a competitive rookie, no disrespect to Kevin Conway, and several drivers, such as Trevor Bayne, Rickey Stenhouse Jr., or Steve Wallace are chomping at the bit.

2011 could also hold a move for an unknown: someone moving before their contract is up, as some have done in the past. Whoever goes wherever, movement is coming, and will hopefully provide an interesting backdrop to a blockbuster season.


Read more by Joseph Davis at The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #2- Hendrick Motorsports

What???  Hendrick comes in second??  They may win the championship, and I believe they will win races with all four drivers, but I do not feel they are the strongest team in 2011...yet.  I said yet...  I believe they will finish 2011 as the strongest team, but with a slow start due to off season changes they will not have the strongest season as a whole. 

For Mark Martin, and for NASCAR, 2011 may be the end of an era.  After 2011, Martin may end up driving full time for another team, but will more likely go back to semi-retirement.  This man of steel has shown us in the past not to count him out, so don't this year.  He will be re-training Crew Chief Lance McGrew who comes over from the old 88 team and will be housed now with Jeff Gordon.  Look for these two veterans to make a hard charge come Summer.

2011 was one of the worst years ever for Dale Earnhardt Jr., but believe it or not, it was a better year than 2009.  He had more top 10's and top 5's, finished 4 spots better in points, and went from 5 DNF's to 0 DNF's.  However, none of the stats were very good in 2010, no matter how bad 2009 was.  The hope for the 88 team rests mostly in the changes of the off season and the enthusiasm those changes have caused.  Now that Jr. will be housed with Jimmie Johnson, led by Steve Letarte, and driving Jeff Gordon's cars from last year, there seems to be a true excitement from him heading into Daytona.  It will be up and down in the beginning of the season, but if they can get some top 10's early and often, look out.  I think Jr will win by August, will make the Chase, and finish in the top 10 in points.  Don't wake me up.

Is 2011 the beginning of the end for Jeff Gordon, or the end of the beginning?  I know he his not about to retire, although he has spoken more and more of retirement in the past few years.  2010 was aggravating to Gordon to say the least.  He had only 1 top 5 in the last 15 races, but 2 finishes worse than 30th.  He had no wins and only one pole, his lowest pole total since 1997.  This year, he will have Alan Gustafson as his Crew Chief and will be housed with Mark Martin.  Look for Gordon to have the most initial success out of the changed teams.  If he can remember how to charge at the end of a race, and I think he can, look for Gordon to enter the Chase in the top 5 and finish top 3.

Is Johnson a fix for six??  I don't think so.  Although he and Knaus showed strong desire once challenged in October, he didn't show the same fire the whole year.  His May, July and August were so so with only 2 top 10's and no top 5's.  However, I did forget to mention June... In June he had 2 wins and an average finish of 3.25.  Although I don't think he will win the championship, he still has the ability to pound out win after win when he gets on a roll.  I think Johnson will enter the Chase with a few wins in the top 5 in points, but with a couple of DNF's in the Chase, only finishes around 5th.  His luck in the Chase can't last forever.  He has not had more than one finish outside the top 15 in the Chase since his first championship in 2006 which he made up for with 5 straight top 2 finishes.

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NASCAR's Naughty And Nice From 2010

Well, Santa is making his list and as usual, there are some naughty little boys who will be getting coal this year.  Often in NASCAR there are all to many opportunities to be naughty, and every driver has been on that list at some point or another.  Who is on which list this year?  Well, I'm sure you have a few ideas of your own, but this is the list Old St. Nick faxed over to me this afternoon and these were the highlights.

Nice

• Mark Martin- Loves To Share!  Due to Mark's on-track kindness, which is a staple in NASCAR, and his willingness to share his Crew Chief, Mark is on the Nice list this year.  Little Mark will receive a new Crew Chief and a new roommate this Christmas.
• Kasey Kahne- Patient.  For his willingness to be a good boy and wait a year to drive the #5 Kasey will get a full year of free Red Bull to liven up his performance for 2011.
• Jeff Gordon- Team Player.  He was so committed to bringing the Cup back to Hendrick this year that he selflessly gave up his pit crew to the #48.  He was willing to move his stuff out of the old 24/48 garage.  For all of that he will get to once again be the youngest driver in his garage and will get a great new Crew Chief.  Gustafson is receiving a 3D decal of the front bumper of the old #3 to put in Jeff's rear view mirror for some encouragement.
• Carl Edwards- Puts Others Before Himself!  Some people are takers and some are givers.  Carl was so kind as to take damage to his own car just to give Brad Keselowski the ride of his life.  No wonder he is always smiling, he is such a giver.  For that, Carl will have his best season ever in 2011, of which I gave him a taste in the final races of 2010.

Naughty

• Kyle Busch- Does Not Play Well With Others!  He was rough with his teammates, tore up a lot of cars, and flicked off everyone while doing it, all because Joe Gibbs would not buy him the cat featured on his Toyota in his commercial.  His name is almost written in permanent ink on this list.  For his antics he will be penalized with an extra 100 lbs of steal in each car next year, which he will probably be putting in the front bumper in preparation for his spot on this list next Christmas.
• Jimmie Johnson- Will Not Share.  What a grinch!  Jimmie used to be such a good boy.  Yet again he is on this list for not sharing!  Not only will he not share the Sprint Cup trophy, but he also stole Hamlin's smile and now Happy Harvick is just Harvick.  I have no choice but to take all of Johnson's cars and for 2011 he and Knaus must use only shopping carts and used lawn mower engines.  Perhaps the others can catch up.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr- Poor Manners!  For his sailor's tongue on his radio, peeling the paint off every home that listened to it, Jr will have his mouth washed out with soap before every race by his new Crew Chief Letarte.  And for making his cousin and millions cry in July when he raced in a "pants" car and raced the pants off everyone else, he will have to make millions happy with great performances in 2011.

Merry Christmas NASCAR Nation!  May 2011 be even wilder than 2010.

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A New Spring In Dale Jr's Step? It's Christmas!!

While following all of the hubbub surrounding the Sprint Cup banquet, I could not help but read the comments by both Earnhardt Jr and his new crew chief.  I know, I know, I am a hopeless Jr fan that hangs on his every word.

It is hard, however, for anyone to dismiss the excited tone both he and Letarte have going into the offseason.  I know there is a long time between now and February, and the likelihood that this excitement would produce immediately is almost impossible, but giving the Jr faithful just a sliver of hope... well, it makes for a better Christmas!!  I would very much like to hear the same excitement after next weeks tire test at Daytona, I think that will hold more weight.

Well, in light of the new excitement, and with Christmas coming, here is my wish list for 2011...

• Mark Martin gets at least 1 win in 2011, with it hopefully coming at Daytona!
• Someone raises their game to compete with JJ, perhaps bringing some emotion out of him..
• NASCAR comes to their senses and moves the Labor Day race back to Darlington!
• Logano gaines 10 pounds to take him over the 150 lb mark..  Seriously, man, EAT!
• TV coverage improves, with at least 5 minutes of coverage between commercials...
• Dale Jr returns to victory lane, makes the Chase, and finishes top 7 in points....

Ok, so what are some of your NASCAR wishes for next year???

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Changes Made....Bring On February.

Who will crew chief the 88 next year? What changes will be made to the 24? How much strength will Hendrick put behind the 5? And will he take anything from the 48?

Asked...and answered.

The new changes: move the 24 to garage with the 5, move the 88 to garage with the 48, and crew chief pairings of Letarte to the 88, Gustafson to the 24, and McGrew to the 5.

Time will tell if the changes to the 24 and 88 spur success or not but the driver with the most to lose is Martin. His average finish over the final 5 races: 8th. That is almost as good as Hamlin's average of 7 over the last five races. Martin and Gustafson were clearly building steam for 2011. But then again, Martin won't be around in 2012.

Gustafson, try to take Gordon back to a championship. McGrew, give the old man a good curtain call. And Letarte, good luck with the spotlight!

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Get In Their Heads

The season is over.

All the crews, except for a few, have gone home for some needed R&R.

Step inside the minds of four drivers: Jimmy Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Johnson is on top of the world...again.  He has broken a record...his own record of consecutive Cup titles.  Yet this year is different: he is able to celebrate as a father.  I think the most recent picture of the changes in store for Johnson is that of Gordon.  Gordon had 12 wins from 2005 - 2007.  Gordon celebrated the birth of his first child in 2007.  Gordon had 1 win in the next 3 years.  Johnson has had 20 wins from 2008-2010.

It is very possible that Johnson's career won't slow after this year, I definitely wouldn't say he is not the front runner for next year.  But any father knows that life changes after you have children.  Not only does scheduling and sleep deprovation come into play, but I believe the main issue is the ability to accept risk.  Driving 200 mph and threading a needle is inherently risky.

Next, Gordon, is wondering what he is doing differently.  As his incident with Jeff Burton showed, Gordon is disappointed to the point of banging his head against the wall.  For many drivers a 9th place finish in the points would be a huge step forward, but for someone who several years ago could win with three wheels, finishing second is not good enough, much less 9th.

I look for Gordon to return to his hard nosed driving of the mid 1990's next year.  I wouldn't be surprised if he is involved in more incidents like the one with Burton, but they will be accompanied by several wins.

Third, Martin, is hoping to go out on a good note.  Martin was disappointed this year as well, but his team has been in limbo due to unknowns related to Casey Kahne's coming contract with Hendrick.  Now Martin knows the end is near and I am sure will want to go out with a bang.

Plan to see Martin in victory lane a couple of times in 2011.  I am sure he will be busy in the off season preparing for one more curtain call.  And have no doubt, this "crazy old man" is still fit enough to whip most of the guys at the track, much less on the track.

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr, I think, is looking for a break.  He seems tired of showing up, trying to work his way forward, then have a bad adjustment late in the race.  He knows his lack of success is not just McGrew's fault, and is questioning what he himself can do differently.  I personally feel he needs many changes.  I think he needs more Nationwide or Truck Series races and less time running his Nationwide team or selling merchandise.  He needs more time behind the wheel to recapture the drive to win. 

I do not know what 2011 holds for Jr; probably a new crew chief, possibly another large shake up.  But whatever happens in the offseason, it has to produce a new sense of focus come February.  Earnhardt needs a cohesive force for his team like Knause is for Johnson or how Evernham was for Gordon, but I don't know if there is another super crew-chief out there.  I, for one, hope so.

Good luck Mr. Hendrick, much to do in the next two months.

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