Dale Jr.’s Improvement On 1.5 Mile Tracks Bodes Well

One of the most telling stats in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is a driver’s average finish on 1.5 mile tracks. These tracks include Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky. This year these tracks account for 10 of 36 races on the Sprint Cup Series, including 4 of 10 Chase races. Continued success at these tracks often indicates an ability of a team to adapt to the ever changing balance on picky tracks, a strong suit that Junior's crew chief, Steve Letarte, has aptly demonstrated this year.

In the past years, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has had success at 1.5 mile tracks. He has one win each at Atlanta, Texas, and Chicago. However, in the past couple years, Junior’s performance on these “cookie cutter” tracks has been lackluster, to say the least.

In 2009, Junior had four 1.5 mile races by this point in the season, and had an average finish of 20th. In 2010, he had good improvement, but only averaged a 13th place finish on these tracks by the 12th race of the season. So far, in 2011, Dale Jr. has an average finish on 1.5 mile tracks of 8th. The last time he did so well on downforce tracks was in 2008.

In 2008, Dale Jr. had an average finish of 7th on downforce tracks at race 12. He went on to enter the Chase in the 4th spot in points and had one win. If he can build on his improvement in this area, the 2011 Chase could go well for Junior.

Now don’t misunderstand me, although I am a fan, I am not saying Junior will win the Chase. But I don’t think that a top 5 finish in points is unlikely.

This year’s Chase has a great mixture of tracks for Junior’s strong points. There are four 1.5 mile tracks, one restrictor plate track, and three flat tracks (Phoenix, Martinsville, and Loudon). The other two tracks, Dover and Homestead, have not been the best for Junior. Although Junior has a decent history at Dover, he won there the race after 9/11, he has an average finish over 17th.

Junior’s history at Homestead is much worse. After 11 races at the South Florida track, he has no top five’s or top ten’s and has a dismal average finish of 24th. He has never done well here, in fact, since 2001, his best finish is 19th. If Junior will ever be competitive for the Championship, he will have to be able to have a decent finish at the season finale. If not, he will take the chance that someone like Harvick will sneak up and take it away, just like Sunday night at the Coke 600.

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