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Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Joe Gibbs Racing Faces Tough Four Races

Coming out of an up and down Coke 600, Joe Gibbs Racing is sitting in pretty good position for the season. Kyle Busch is 5th in the points standings and has two wins and Hamlin and Logano seem to have survived recent team issues and are beginning to be competitive again. And although Hamlin and Logano are outside the top ten, they are making ground. Hamlin is just 18 points out and Logano is 74 points out. Both still can make the Chase.

The next four races, however, pose quite a task for the team. Although there are bright spots, like Pocono for Hamlin, these next races have not been kind to the team as a whole. There will be JGR fans reading this that will scoff at this thought, since JGR has 6 combined wins at the next four tracks of Kansas, Pocono, Michigan, and Sonoma, but please, hear me out.

JGR has an average finish of 19th for the combined four tracks. That number may be decent for some teams, but for a top 5 team and two teams struggling to get in the top 10, they won’t get the job done. Not to mention, a return to aggravation for the 20 and 11 teams could very well be catastrophic right now.

Does this mean that success it out of the question for a few weeks? No! Only a fool would bet against Kyle Busch as long as there is gas in the car, Denny Hamlin is a virtual lock for a top 5 at Pocono, and Michigan is one of Logano’s best tracks in his young career.

What will be the test, however, is can all three of these teams put together the run they need over a stretch of races that are historically unkind to them. Especially the 11 and 20 teams that need to continue their march toward the top 10.

Although Logano’s average finish for the four races is the lowest at 22nd, Kyle Busch’s average finish of 20th is probably the most surprising. In fact, Busch’s best average finish out of the four tracks is his average of 18th at Michigan. At each of the other three he averages 20th or higher.

The coming race at Kansas is historically one of the most problematic for the JGR teams. The JGR average finish at Kansas is an unacceptable 23rd, with Hamlin averaging 18th, Busch 24th, and Logano 28th in his three visits to the 1.5 mile track.

Yes, the work will be difficult for the next four races, but don’t plan on seeing me bet against JGR. Each of the drivers, especially Busch and Hamlin, have proven that they are capable of winning anywhere. We will see if they can conquer the coming tracks en route to a possibly challenging for the championship again.

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