Which Will Make The Chase, Jeff Gordon Or Denny Hamlin?

With nine Sprint Cup races in the book for 2011, the picture of which teams will compete for the 2011 Chase is quickly coming into focus. With exception of the two road courses, teams have faces each type of track that they will race on, and have had enough time to establish a foundation for the rest of the season.

There have been a few people who have had surprising success this year, some lasting and some starting to fade. The RPM duo of Almendinger and Ambrose had some initial success this year, running strong in the first few races of the year. However, now that the new has worn off, the two have had some struggles and are currently 11th and 23rd in the points respectively. They are, of course, much higher than last year, but with poor performances in the past few weeks, expect them to slide a bit more until their new teams and the RPM leadership can get some organization done that they had little time for since the team reformed late last fall.

Other surprises, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman, are having a good deal of success. Both have had little success in the past five years. Newman, in nine races, has one less top 5 finish than he accumulated in all of 2010. If he continues at this pace he will have his best season since 2003, when he finished 6th in the points. He also had 8 wins that year. Earnhardt is again driving with confidence. If Steve Letarte can keep the 88 crew “between the ditches,” victory lane will come, at least once or twice, and a Chase berth is likely.

Two drivers noticeably absent from the top ten in points are Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Both of these drivers are considered near the best in their sport, yet they are having trouble getting their footing in 2011. If you had to choose, though, which driver do you think will make the Chase?

Hamlin is currently 17th in the points, 97 points behind the leader. If Hamlin cannot gain ground in the next 10 races, he will have to rely on wins to gain a Chase berth. Of course Hamlin can move up: he is only 37 points behind Tony Stewart in 10th. Hamlin has not, however, had very many good finishes. In nine races, he only has 2 top 10’s and 1 top 5, and suspicion is now rising that communication between he and crew chief Mike Ford is sub par at best.

Gordon, 16th in points, is also well out of his comfort zone. He is accustomed to competing, if not dominating, the points standings and has better vision through his rear view mirror than his windshield. However, early successes with new crew chief Alan Gustafson give reason for optimism. Gordon has only 3 top tens, but the up side is that they were all top 5’s and one was a win. Gordon can obviously compete. If the 24 crew can avoid more wrecks and can make a few adjustments, Gordon could be tough to beat late in the season.

I believe that, if only one of the two make the Chase, it will be Jeff Gordon. Although I would never bet against Hamlin, one simply has to look at the most important relationship in the garage: the driver – crew chief relationship. Gordon’s relationship with Gustafson is just beginning and, considering their personalities and drive will likely be successful. Hamlin’s relationship with Ford, however, is declining due to aggravation and distrust from last season’s end. If Joe Gibbs and crew cannot mend this due, the 11 team is in for a long season indeed.


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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