Is Earnhardt Jr. Really “Done”

Over the past few races, with the rapid decline of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the Sprint Cup Standings, many people have speculated whether the 88 team would make the Chase. Some NASCAR pundits have even implied or even outright stated that Junior’s Chase hopes are already finished.

For the most part, people are speculating that his downward points trajectory will not change enough to keep him in the top 10 in points and, without a win in the coming 7 races, he will miss the Chase cutoff and the wild card. The number one reason they may be right is not Earnhardt Jr.’s poor finishes, but the average finishes the drivers around him in the standings have at the coming tracks. Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and even Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman all have great finishes at some of the next few tracks. Therefore, not only does Earnhardt have to stop the bleeding, but he also has to return to competitiveness.

The number one reason detractors may be wrong is that most of the slide in points has been due to bad luck, rather than bad racing. After 3 straight top 7 finishes, Earnhardt Jr. finished a disappointing 21st at Michigan, but his 41st the following weekend at Sonoma was due to being caught up in someone else’s wreck. The next week at Daytona, Junior was again caught in someone else’s wreck, relegating him to a 19th place finish. A third week in a row, Earnhardt Jr. had damage to his car; this time at Kentucky he blew a tire. And finally, in the last race, at Loudon, he ran poorly until saving a decent 15th place finish.

No, Junior did not stand much chance at winning in these races, except possibly at Daytona, but if he had finished 20th at Sonoma, 12th at Daytona, and 20th at Kentucky, each a likely finish without his mishaps, he would be 38 points higher. That would put him 1 point behind 6th place Matt Kenseth and give him a comfortable lead on 11th place Tony Stewart.

However, he is not 1 point behind Kenseth, and Tony Stewart is lurking. So let’s take a look at the next few races.

Although the next three tracks are probable pitfalls for Earnhardt Jr., there is a possibility that some of his detractors may have jumped a couple races early. Although Earnhardt Jr. has a poor average finish at Indianapolis and Pocono, 22nd and 17th respectively, he has had some success at those tracks.

If you overlook last year’s 27th at Indy, Junior’s past several races there haven’t been so bad. In ’07 he had an engine failure after having led 33 laps as one of the two favorites for the win. In ’08 he finished 6th, and in ’09 he started the race 3rd yet had another engine failure. Also, his crew chief, Steve Letarte, has been preparing cars for Jeff Gordon at Indy the past few years, which is definitely an advantage for 2011. Letarte has an average finish of 10th the last 4 visits at Indy with Gordon.

At Pocono, Junior is not necessarily considered a force to reckon with, but he has 7 finishes between 2nd and 6th, including a 6th place finish in his last visit there in June. Also, with his performance at some flat tracks this year, along with how close he has come on fuel mileage races, Junior should be considered a possible factor at Pocono in August.

At any rate, the races at Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen will tell whether Earnhardt Jr. has the drive to make the Chase this year. But I wouldn’t throw dirt in his face just yet.


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