Winning Races Is More Important In Search For Cup

Prior to NASCAR making recent changes to their points structure, many people, fans and drivers alike, made a plea to make winning more imperative to win the Sprint Cup.  Many said the added points for wins entering the Chase just was not enough.  Well, apparently the changes NASCAR made has worked.

For the past nine years (2005-2013) the NASCAR champion has had a season win total of 5 or more.  The last time a champion had less than 5 was in 2004 when Kurt Busch won the championship with 3 wins.  Of course, much of the Chase came about after the 2003 season when Kenseth won the Cup with only 1 win.  The average win total of the champion from 1999-2004 was 4.2.

With Johnson totaling 6 wins this season on his way to his 6th championship, the average win total for the champion since 2004 is 6.1. 

Drivers and teams alike are striving more to gain wins through the summer stretch to amass larger bonus point totals heading into the Chase.  In seasons past, teams would be more likely to be conservative through the summer in order to maintain their standing heading into the final stretch of the year. 

Yes, every driver want's to win, but no driver is going to press a 10th place car to win, chancing a bad finish, unless he thinks it is worth the risk.  In years past, it was much more worth it to maintain a solid foundation for an end of the year run for the title.

Not every result anticipated by NASCAR after their changes to the points system has come to fruition, but it looks fairly safe to say that their will be no more 1 win champions.

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What Have We Learned From 2013?

Close the book.  Another year in the history of NASCAR has come to a close.  All of the preparation of the garage for the new Gen 6, the plate races, the summer stretch, and the Chase - over.  No more "Five Time", Jimmie Johnson now has 6 in his attempt for the most cups.

With everything over and written down, just what have we learned this season?  What bits of wisdom has 2013 imparted to us to clarify what is coming in 2014 and beyond?

First, we have re-learned that Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are nowhere near finished dominating the sport.  It is utterly amazing how much their combination is made for the Sprint Cup setup and would not work without one of the two.  Johnson has a 1 win to every 6.6 race ratio in Sprint Cup, an unbelievable fact when placed beside his 1 win to 93 race ratio in the Nationwide Series.

Many people say that the 48's success lies solely with Chad Knaus or is only because of Hendrick money.  Those people should think about the 3 races Johnson drove in Hendrick cars without Knaus with an average finish of 31st.  They should also consider that in 35 Sprint Cup races without Jimmie Johnson, Knaus has zero wins, zero top 5's, and only 1 top 10 with an average finish of 24th.

No, Knaus, Johnson, and Hendrick make a mixture precision, determination and, yes, money, that will be successful as long as the three are combined.  Will there be a 7th championship?  Probably.  Will they continue forever?  Nothing lasts forever, but for now there is no end in sight, so get used to it.

Second, we learned that the fall from dominance and competitiveness is a steep one.  Last year we had a young and exciting new champion who looked like he would carry his success forward with a new make, but Brad Keselowski's change from Dodge to Ford proved anything but successful.  Penske Racing did not change crews, kept the same crew chief, the same driver, and merely changed engines and decals.  Still, the blue deuce ended up 14th at the end of the season and was not able to compete in the Chase to defend their championship.

Yes, Keselowski still had a win, and yes he led laps, but after the trouble began in mid spring after a penalty for questionable parts sidelined his crew chief, they could not rebound.  They began the season with 4 straight top 5's, then had a 10 race run in the spring that saw them outside the top 20 for 6 races and aggravation became disappointment when his new teammate made the Chase and he did not.

Finally, we learned that the more things change the more they stay the same.  NASCAR has spent years and dollars changing the image of the sport from the "if you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin", brawling blue collar sport of the 50's, 60's and 70's.  Yet what did we get this year?  "Is your arm starting to hurt?....Itch it..."  And, "Good job man, hopefully we'll get something out of that."  For any readers who don't get the reference, these were radio transmissions from the Richmond race where drivers, crews, and owners reportedly conspired to affect the points so particular drivers could make the Chase.

With these three things in mind, an outlook on 2014 would have to conclude that Johnson will be strong, Keselowski will be looking to make a point, and NASCAR drivers and owners will continue to do anything they think they can get away with to win.  All three of these probabilities should make for another great season.

How many days until Daytona?

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2012: In With A Bang, Out With A Kes

NASCAR's 2012 Sprint Cup season is over and gone, but before we begin to speculate about what may be for 2013, lets take one last look at the wild ride that was the 2012 season.

The 2012 season story began with several before/after stories.  To begin, Kyle Busch, a perennial threat with the ability to win every week, won the Budweiser Shootout.  Many people would have thought the 18 bunch could have put together a strong run this year, but shortly into the season their wheels would fall off.  He did manage a points win at Richmond, but that would be all for him in 2012, his lowest win total since 2007.

The next before and after story would have to be the before and after photos of Daytona International Speedway after Juan Pablo Montoya played demolition derby with a jet dryer.  Fortunately nobody was hurt, but the ensuing fire and inspection of the track caused the Daytona 500 to end well into the night.

Another early season story we saw was Matt Kenseth's dominance.  He won the Daytona 500 and ended up the points leader by mid season, but his contract talks with Roush Fenway Racing fell apart.  Probably the largest blunder RFR has made, Kenseth ended up signing to drive for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, effectively ending the teams ability to race for the 2012 championship.

Returning to challenge for the Sprint Cup points lead this year was driver 88, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  After beginning the year with a large stretch of top 10 runs, he finally returned to victory lane at Michigan with a dominating performance.  Although he did reach the points lead briefly during the summer, his season slowed after an initial concussion at a Kansas tire test in August, then totally stopped with a second concussion and ensuing 2 week break at Talladega. 

One of the most entertaining stories of the season was the tension and on-track altercation between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer.  After consistent contact between the 15 and 24 for a couple races, Gordon finally had all he could handle and wrecked Bowyer during the final laps of the Phoenix Chase race, effectively ending Bowyer's chances at winning the championship.  The ensuing melee in the garage area brought about probations and fines a plenty and added to the drama when the two drivers finished first and second in the season ending race at Homestead.  I doubt the two will be drafting partners at Daytona come February.

The final story of the season came down to Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson.  Many people wondered whether the young driver could handle the pressure and hold back the five time champion for the 2012 Sprint cup, but as the end of the Chase grew closer, it was Johnson, Knaus, and the 48 crew that did not stand up to the pressure.  Keselowski obtained the points lead after a misstep by the Lowe's team at Phoenix and did not let it go.

The stories of the 2012 season were plenty and were fun to follow.  There were great races, a good Chase, and even some altercations in the garage.  Here's hoping the 2013 season will rise to the occasion.

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Get Set!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 1st - 5th

As the Chase quickly approaches, many drivers are getting ready to prepare for 2013.  They will not be "in the hunt", so they are either preparing with their team for a stronger run next year, or are preparing for a new ride to start speedweeks at Daytona.

The Chase drivers, on the other hand, are preparing to put their best foot forward on the first Chase race.  Not wanting to fall behind and give up a chance at a Championship, drivers will be looking to make statements at the 1.5 mile Chicagoland Speedway.  Whether they will step out ahead or not, these 5 drivers are starting out front on their way to the Sprint Cup:

5th - Greg Biffle: In many ways, 2012 has been a season of renewal for Biffle and the 16 team.  They have led more laps this year than any season since '06.  They have remained in or close to the top 3 in points for most of the regular season.  And the 16 team has not finished the season in the top 5 since 2008 and have never had an average finish better than 11.9 (their current average for the '12 season is 9.7).

To have a chance at winning the Sprint Cup, Biffle will have to produce on his strong suits, the 1.5 mile downforce tracks and the Monster Mile of Dover.  If he can pop of a win or two, look for him to be close to the top entering Homestead, a track where he has 3 wins.  The 'Biff' has an average finish of 15.9 and 10 wins at the 10 Chase tracks.

4th - Brad Keselowski: Making his second Chase appearance in just 3 full time Sprint Cup seasons, Keselowski has definitely made his place amoung the top tier drivers.  He has 3 wins this year and is more than capable of winning a few more prior to Homestead.  Along with his ability to stay up front, the 2 team has also shown that they and their driver are willing to do whatever is needed to win, a trait that may serve them well when the points battle gets close at the end.

The downside for the 2 team is that Keselowski only has good history at a few of the Chase tracks.  Don't get me wrong, he is more than capable of winning at all of them, he just has poor average finishes at most of them.  His strong tracks are definitely Talladega and Kansas.  Keselowski's average finish at the Chase tracks is 17.1 and he has 3 wins on those tracks.

3rd - Tony Stewart: This year Stewart is entering the Chase in 3rd and not quite as unsure as he was last year when he dominated the Chase with 5 wins.  However, although Stewart has more top 5's this year than the previous two, he only has two more top 10's than top 5's.  What that means is that if Stewart has a good car and a good setup, he can compete and will finish within sight of the lead.  If he does not, he is not getting to the top 10.  Translation: Stewart could break out with multiple wins, or he could struggle with poor setups.

Nobody, though, should count the 14 out of the Championship.  2011 should serve as plenty reminder that Stewart may be down but is never 'out'.  Stewart, after all, is known for being at mid-late season driver.  He does not, however, have Darian Grubb who helped him win the Cup last year.  Stewart has an average finish of 12.5 and 21 wins on the Chase tracks.

2nd - Jimmie Johnson: Another Chase and another attempt at a Championship for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew.  Johnson has shown this year, again, that he wins the big races, and once he is out front he is hard to catch.  Johnson has had three wins so far, and is unlikely to go winless in the Chase.  Johnson has NEVER gone winless in the final 10 races of the year in his Sprint Cup career.

Winning or not, Johnson cannot be counted out of the Chase picture.  He has plenty of ability to win, let alone his proven history with Crew Chief Knaus at the Chase tracks from which to draw information.  Johnson has an average finish of 10th and 31 wins at the Chase tracks.

1st - Denny Hamlin: After not being able to back up his 2010 performance last year, Hamlin has been able to slowly build this year to the point that he is the Chase frontrunner.  Hamlin has had an up and down 2012, but with a few wins and more consistently running at or near the front over the summer, Hamlin is hitting his stride at just the right time.

One of Hamlin's biggest strengths this year is the addition of last years Cup winning Crew Chief, Darian Grubb.  Grubb may well be out for some 'how do you like me now' and Hamlin would be more than happy to help him out.  What Hamlin will be sure to look out for is a momentum trip up like he had near the end of the 2010 Chase.  Hamlin has an average finish of 13.4 and 10 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Chase 2012: 'Outwit', 'Outplay', or 'Outlast'?

With this season's up and down nature, engine's blowing, and no clear dominator, this year's Chase could be an exercise in 'Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast'.  Although there is always a possibility of someone getting on a hot streak as Tony Stewart did late in last year's Chase, the field seems very level for those who are definitely in the Chase.

Each of the past several weeks there has been one or more of this year's contenders in trouble.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. wrecked in practice, in a race, and tore up a transmission.  Johnson never seriously contended at the Glen, then blew his engine within sight of victory lane at Michigan.  Kenseth or his team, or both, are apparently looking forward to next season.  And Keselowski is now following the Hendrick cars around drooling over their 'rear ends'.  Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

The way things are shaping up, the Chase is possibly going to be a case of who stays out of trouble, dodge's wrecks, steals one with stragegy, and keeps their engines running coming out ahead of the other contenders.  With only 10 races in the Chase, one DNF can easily end a driver's chance at the Sprint Cup, especially if there are one or two drivers who are cautious and lucky enough to stay 'clean' throughout the Chase.

One thing is for sure, the race to the Chase for those contending for the two wildcard slots will come down to outwit or outplay.  Should anyone of the drivers with one win snag another victory, it could be all they need, because none of those drivers look like they could run off a string of 2 or three wins right now.

As for how the Chase has historically played out, there have been a mixture of three plots.  In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2010, the Champion would win none or one race in the Chase, and effectively 'Outlast' the field.  In each of those years, a driver other than the eventual champ would win 2 or more races in the Chase, but one or more poor performances put them in a hole too deep to win.  In 2004, in fact, Jimmie Johnson had 4 Chase wins, but could only manage to climb back to second by season's end. 

In 2007, 2009, and 2011 the Champion 'Outplayed' the field.  In each of those years the eventual winner would snag at least 4 Chase races and simply dominate the competition to the point that sheer speed won out.  And in 2008 the Championship was won by a combination of 'Outwit', 'Outlast' and 'Outplay'.  In that year, three drivers had multiple Chase wins, and two had three wins in what ended up as a virtual slugfest to the finish.  Although Carl Edwards won 3 of the final 4 races, the points Johnson had amassed in his 3 wins gave him the cushion to keep Edwards at bay for the final races.

One driver you will hear commentators say does not have the ability to hit a hot streak during the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr.  His best showing in the Chase races was in 2004 where he won 2 races in the final 10.  The most promising news for the 88 crew is that his performance in the 1.5 mile tracks has been solid this year, which could translate into some success in the fall.

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How Do You Get Your NASCAR?

My how time changes.  We live in a world that never stops turning, constantly moving and ever changing.  I recall sitting down to watch a race on Sunday and listening intently to the prerace show, because that was the only "insider news" you could get.  Yeah there were newspaper articles and a couple select magazines that covered the sport, but for the most part the half hour or so prior to the green flag was where you saw the personalities behind the wheels and behind the pit wall.

Even prior to those days, races may or may not have been televised and even further still, the only NASCAR you could get was by rumor mill or by going to the race.  Imagine how daunting Jimmie Johnson would be if all you heard were tales of his wins and his five championships.  I would image kids would assume he were 10 ft tall and bullet proof.  Of course, some of his fans and even some on-air personalities currently think that way.

Today, NASCAR can get to you a plethora of ways.  You can get an instant NASCAR fix through Twitter, Facebook, or by surfing NASCAR sites on your smartphone.  You can also catch NASCAR shows on ESPN or even on the SPEED channel.

It never ceases to amaze me just how many fans who are die hard never access the inside information that can be had by following drivers, crew chiefs, spotters or even track personnel on Twitter and/or Facebook.  When I personally got on Twitter, I was shocked at how open and personable some of the drivers and team members were.  You literally could have knocked me over with a feather the first time I had a question answered by Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, or even Mrs. Harvick herself.

Personability and being able to relate to the sports stars is, in my opinion, of utmost importance if NASCAR is to expand its current fan base, reach new markets, and even fill the stands week in and week out.  Social media, to me, provides more insight into the sport than any other avenue.

So how do YOU get your NASCAR?  Do you use Twitter (if so give me a follow @the_Bumpdrafter) or Facebook?  Do you read multiple NASCAR blogs?  Tell us who you recommend following!

FYI: Some of my personal favorites on Twitter are the Harvicks, Jimmie Johnson, definitely Brad Keselowski, @NASCARCASM, and ESPN's Marty Smith among others.

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Dale Jr. Reaches New Level Of Consistency

All the speculators thought this weekend was the week.  Hendrick was to get their 200th win and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was to break his losing streak and make all of Junior Nation happy once again.  Sometimes things just don't work out the way you plan.  However, Dale Jr. can be thrilled with his 9th place finish for another reason!

Dale Earnhardt Jr's top 10 finish at Talladega marked his 8th in the first 10 races of this season which is the first time he has ever surpassed 7 top 10's to begin a season.  Junior has reached 7/10 three other times (2003, 2004, and 2008). 

An 80% top ten mark to start the NASCAR season has been reached 47 times in the Cup Era (since 1975), and has been accomplished by that year's champion 13 times out of 36 years.  However, that has not been accomplished since NASCAR went to the Chase format.  In fact, the last time it happened was one year prior when Matt Kenseth won the championship with only 1 win.

Dale Earnhardt started the season with 8 top tens in 7 of his seasons, including 6 championship years.  The next driver on the list was Darrell Waltrip, who made that mark 6 times, including twice of those being 9 top 10's out of 10 races.  Out of the other NASCAR greats, Terry Labonte did it 5 times, Jeff Gordon 3, Bobby Allison 3, Cale Yarborough 2, and Richard Petty 2 times.

Some notable drivers not on that list were Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and other current top drivers.  The best knowledge to take away from that fact is that these racers have been excellent in the past 8 years at turning it on from the summer on, especially during the Chase.  This has been an issue for Junior in the past as even though he has won at some Chase races, such as Talladega and Phoenix, he has not been able to put together 10 great races at the end of the season as he has now at the beginning.

In the mean time, Earnhardt Jr. and the 88 team as a whole are enjoying a building of momentum including 6 straight top ten finishes.  They are listed as the best team over the past 6 races, Junior has one of the highest average driver ratings he has had in his career, and people are looking for them to win week in and week out.  The most important thing driver 88 can do now is prove those people right...

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Just A Number: Talladega 5/12

What do numbers really mean? Most of us talk about numbers in racing all the time but rarely look inside or behind those numbers. For instance, every member of Junior Nation has something with an 88 on it, but few know that the number 88 has been used by 5 champions (Darrell Waltrip, Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace, Bobby Allison, and Buddy Baker) and other racing greats such as Al Unser Sr., Ricky Rudd, and even Richard Childress. There is definitely a lot of history behind the 88.


With that said, there are many numbers being thrown around in NASCAR over the last few weeks that need to be looked at a bit closer. For one, the current Hendrick Motorsports losing streak is at 15 heading into the spring race at Talladega. Attached to that number is the fact that HMS is still looking for its 200th win.   The last time HMS had a 15 race losing skid was a stretch from late 2002 to early 2003 when Gordon won at Martinsville.  Interesting tidbit: the race before Gordon broke the losing streak was Talladega, and the winner was DEI driver Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Many are saying that this week is when several streaks will be broken, including Junior's losing streak, HMS's losing streak, and HMS's 200th win will be posted.  I am not certain, nor should anyone be, due to the totally random nature of Talladega.  I do thing, however, that HMS has a better chance of winning than any other team.  For instance, in the 16 races at Talladega from 2000 to 2007, 11 of the wins came from Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson.  In fact, the three of them have a total of 13 wins at the track.  Therefore, the return to a more "pack-like" style of racing at the restrictor plate tracks will suite these drivers well.

It is important, though, to look at the cause behind the 15 race losing skid for HMS.  I will leave the Junior winless streak for a book as it is too much for a little article.  I believe that although the strength of Roush and Gibbs is partly the cause, there are some issues at HMS that have left the door open for other teams.  First, the relationship between Johnson and crew chief Knaus at the end of last season was cool at best.  They both knew they were about to lose the Sprint Cup for the first time in 6 years and neither relished the thought.  Along with some time and space (from each other) in the off season also comes a few missteps in the new season.

Second, the new teams that were formed for the 88 and 24 last year are still ironing out everything.  Although Gordon had some strong runs last year, as did Junior, the two teams are close, but not yet at their full potential.  And third, the 5 team should be sponsored by a Mr. Murphy.  His law has governed almost every race for Kasey Kahne this year.

Although these teams ALL have their issues, it is just a matter of time before one of them visits victory lane.  In fact, I feel certain that all four, even Kahne, will win races this year, most likely multiple races.  The question for this week is will the magic number be 2 or 1.  Will it be one driver's ability to pick lanes and build momentum, or will a team of two drivers have to win this week?

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Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

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Appeal Turns Hendrick Week From Bad To Good

Although prospects for Hendrick Motorsports is always good at Bristol Motor Speedway, especially with 5 time Bristol winner, Jeff Gordon, Hendrick luck went downhill as the race went along last weekend.  First, early in the race, Kasey Kahne was knocked out of contention in a pile up in the top ten.  Then later in the race, Gordon's left rear tire was cut down after minor contact from Dale Earnhardt Jr., a teammate, no less.  Then to top things off, as Dale Jr. was running at the back of the top 5 and looking for a possible top 3, the 88 team received a speeding violation which dropped them to a 15th place finish for the day.

Johnson, the only Hendrick car to finish in the top 10 (9th), salvaged his day after early damage from the Kahne wreck by slowly taking what he could get.  After a few weeks of fines, points taken away, crew chief suspension and on track troubles, Johnson was probably glad to post a top 10 and go home.  With one more opportunity for appeal to the judgement NASCAR handed down for their Daytona violation, off track preparation to get the 48 back on track to compete for a 6th Sprint Cup was, no doubt, in high gear.

Well, thanks to the appeal judgement by John Middlebrook, Johnson will not have to go 6 races without crew chief Chad Knaus.  Although he and car chief Ron Malec will face a probationary period, their track privileges will remain in tact for now.  Johnson will also regain the 25 championship points that were taken after Daytona, which, along with his 9th place finish on Sunday, will bring him to 12th in the early season standings. 

Although a lack of wins for the Hendrick stable just four races into the 2012 season is hardly a reason for concern, with much invested over the off season into each of the teams, some dividends are probably expected soon.  Most people probably did not expect the new 5 team of Kahne and Francis to exit the gate with wins, but becoming the weekly appointment for the first caution flag has to be aggravating.  Also, some results from the 24, which started 2011 hot, and the 88 that many people feel is getting close, will be expected soon, especially with Martinsville and Texas just around the corner.

For now, the Hendrick family will have to be happy knowing that everyone will be packing to go to California for this weekend.

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Great Restarts, For Vegas And Biffle

The 2012 Kobalt Tools 400 in Las Vegas this weekend had some great racing.  Although there was not as much side by side racing in Vegas as there may have been in the past, the competitive restarts were enough to make up for it.  Seeing the Sprint Cup drivers slinging it three wide at the start finish line and having cars rubbing bumpers and fenders is the best way to see drivers easing into their 2012 season.

No, there were no jet driers exploding in flames, and the only fuel mileage issue was when Brad Keselowski had fuel pump issues after stretching his fuel.  I, for one, am glad not to see jet driers.  Although as a firefighter I did enjoy watching the flames at Daytona, whilst screaming "Put foam on it!!" while the fire crew extinguished the flames slowly, I think we have all seen enough rain delayed races to hold us until at least Darlington.  They did move it back to Labor Day weekend right??  No?  Well they should!!

This weekends race saw two drivers coming back from a rough 2012 start.  Tony Stewart, the winner of this weeks race, had a horrible week last week with a engineering issue relegating him to a 22nd place finish at Phoenix, and started the season with two finishes outside the top 15.  Although many people felt Stewart would cool off a bit, at least in the near term, with a crew chief change (he replaced Darian Grubb with Steve Addington in the offseason), two bad finishes to start the season after winning 3 of the final 4 races of 2011 would have been though a stretch.  Stewart dominated the end of Sunday's race at Las Vegas, however, so he and Addington may be warming up quicker than most thought.

Jimmie Johnson, after wrecking on the second lap of the Daytona 500 and finishing 42nd, found out a week later that he would probably be without his crew chief, Chad Knaus, for 6 races and down 25 more points to the field of Sprint Cup teams vying for this years Chase.  He did, however, get a great 4th place finish at Phoenix, but during final practice at Las Vegas, Johnson hit the wall and began warming up his backup car to start at the rear on Sunday.  Before half way through the 400 mile race, the 48 had made its way to the front and at the end of the race was just shy of Stewarts pace to the finish line. 

Probably the best restart going on in NASCAR at the moment is the restart occurring in the #16 garage.  Although Biffle is always a possible front runner on any given weekend, his end to the 2011 season was weak to say the least.  His 2011 season in general was out of character for the Vancouver, WA driver, as he posted only 3 top 5 finishes for the year and no wins.  During the offseason, no team has turned around as well as the RFR #16 bunch.  Although they have not posted a win in the first three races, they have already tied their top 5 mark from 2012 with 3, scoring a 3rd place finish in each race.  Biffle has also not started outside the top 10, which is great for a driver who is known for driving harder when he can see the leader.

Whatever the 3M RFR team is doing, it is working!

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Dale Jr. Lone Hendrick Horse In First Gatorade Duel

Of and on, during the Budweiser Shootout Saturday night and during Daytona 500 qualifying, you could hear announcers and commentators talk about how the racing for this years 500 will be different: a combination of pack and tandem racing.  Many have suggested that the change could benefit some of the more traditional restrictor plate racers, such as Dale Earnhardt Jr. who had much early career success at restrictor plate tracks.

Junior may be glad to see the change for Sunday's race, but he is likely to be relieved with the change going into Thursday's duel qualifying.  Out of the four Hendrick Motorsports cars preparing for the Daytona 500, Earnhardt Jr. is the only one that will be in the early qualifying race.  As the duel lineups are set by qualifying, odds in the early race and evens in the late race, Earnhardt entered the early lineup with a 3rd place qualifying effort.  The other Hendrick cars, Gordon 6th, Johnson 12th, and Hendrick newcomer Kahne 24th, will all be in the later duel.

One other plus this year is that Junior qualified so well.  Although Earnhardt Jr has qualified well for the Daytona 500 before (he has one pole), the stout showing by the teams with Ford engines had most people feeling as though the Fords had the pole locked up.  Apparently, the changing winds that had been pushing the cars around all afternoon worked somewhat to Earnhardt's advantage, because coming through turn 3 and 4 he began to pick up steam and rose from 5th to almost 2nd on the speed tracker.  Also I am sure Earnhardts knowledge and experience at the track helped him find a little speed.

Whether Earnhardt Jr wins the Daytona 500 or another more traditional pack racer like Gordon, it is safe to say that after the showing on Saturday night that the product of NASCAR's changes will be a wild finish.  No doubt there will be pack racing, and like it or leave it there will be small bursts of tandem racing.  I guess its a little of each and a whole lot of speed.  If you don't love Daytona, you don't love racing.

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Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


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Can Kyle Busch Focus?

Over the last 10 years, no drivers have been compared to the late Dale Earnhardt more than Kyle Busch with exception of Dale Jr. and possibly Tony Stewart.  Kyle Busch has been known for his smirky grins, his dented front bumper, and his ability to let his temper both push him to win and at times push him to be called on the carpet by NASCAR.  There is probably no closer copy of Dale Earnhardt's early years in NASCAR.

Long before the black #3 had millions of fans and won 6 championships in 9 years, Dale Earnhardt drove a pink #2 followed by the yellow #3 Wrangler car.  Those cars and Earnhardt's long hair and bushy mustache were synonymous with on-track beating and banging.  Yes Earnhardt won the championship in 1980, his second year, but he did not produce consistent domination until he developed his ability for long term focus. 

There is no worker in the garage, fan in the stands, or commentator on Sunday afternoons that doubts Kyle Busch's ability for short term focus.  Every driver in NASCAR knows exactly how far Busch will go if he ends up on their rear bumper with 10 to go.  But what Kyle Busch has lacked is the ability turn winning races into winning Sprint Cups.

Part of what has been in Kyle's way of winning Cups is the fact that the season is long.  Thirty years ago when Dale Earnhardt was wrecking Waltrip and Labonte the season was 29 or 30 races long.  Today Busch is driving in 36 Sprint Cup races per season.  That is, when he can control himself.  Sure that is only 6 more races, you may say, but that is a month and a half more of a season.  Multiply on top of that the fact that Busch has been racing Nationwide races and truck series races and managing his own truck series team.  No wonder that by mid October he may not remember exactly where NASCAR's line is.  I'm sure they are more than happy to point it out for him when needed.

Some of that packed schedule may be thinned for the 2012 season.  Word out this week is that Busch will possibly run a small Nationwide schedule with little to no truck series races.  Although Busch would rather be behind the wheel than anywhere else, perhaps given some time to sit and watch could do him good, especially as the season progresses.

In the past 4 years Kyle Busch has had one of the best winning totals in NASCAR, 19 wins, just two behind Jimmie Johnson.  However, in those years when he should have contended and possibly won championships, Busch had zero wins in the final 12 races of the year.  Actually, Kyle Busch has only one Chase win in his career and that was in 2005.  Also, in 2008 when Busch dominated victory lane with 8 wins, he had no wins in the final 14 races.  All of the 8 wins came in the first 22 races.  Yes, 8 out of 22 is domination, but 0 for 14 allows championships to slip away, especially in the Chase format.

Will a thinning of his itinerary and a tight grip on the reigns by Joe and J.D. Gibbs propel Busch to contend and perhaps win the championship in 2012 or beyond?  Time will tell, but I don't foresee him wrecking any cars under caution or spinning any unmanned cars on pit road during the 2012 season.  That, of course, doesn't mean he can't "rattle their cage" every now and then...

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Was "Team Earntarte" A Success In 2011?

Well, its the offseason now, no more getting ready for this weeks race or wondering what drama will come from last weeks race.  Its the cold, lonely time between Homestead and Daytona.  About the only things we can talk about regarding NASCAR is who did well this year and then who we think will do well next year.  Its time for reflections and predictions.

With that in mind, I have to reflect on the 2011 season for one of the most talked about new driver/crew chief pairings made in the 2010 offseason, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Steve Letarte.  As everyone remember, Steve Letarte was moved from the #24 team of Jeff Gordon to help refocus the quickly derailing Cup career of most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr.

While the two began the season with much expected by some and little predicted by others, just how did the 2011 season stack up for Dale Earnhardt Jr.?  Well, overall, there is much to be happy about.  Junior seemed more capable, more communicative, and less unravelling for pretty much the whole season.  His overall willingness to apply continued focus and work through problems helped the team have only 2 DNF's and finish 7th in the Chase, his best Chase finish since 2006, despite having no wins and only 4 top 5 finishes.

Another positive for the 2011 season is that on average, Junior had better finishes.  His total average finishing position was 14.5, slightly better than his 16.8 career average.  The total average for the season was weakend, however, by his turbulent late summer stretch and a decent Chase performance.  In the first 15 races of the season he finished better than his average at 12 and had an average finish of 10.7.

Some of the negatives for this past season have to include the fact that he only led 2 laps during the Chase.  In fact, Earnhardt Jr. led less laps this year than any season since he joined the series full time in 2001: just 52.  "Team Earntarte" will definitely have to focus on this stat in the offseason to improve on the win column (still 0 for the duo despite two runner up finishes).  Although the 88 car did seem a bit more racy this year and spent much more time inside the top 10 than last year, they have to lead more laps in order to have more opportunities to lead last laps.

Part of what I, all-knowing as I am, believe was one of the teams issues this year is that they did not often unload very fast, meaning they had to make many adjustments to get the car fast.  In the early season this often did not finalize until late in the race, allowing Junior to push forward to snag a good finish.  This is most evident in the fact that Junior had an average starting position this season of 19.6.  Although Earnhardt Jr. has never been known for posting top 5 qualifying runs week after week, if the team can improve on this number by being better prepared prior to arriving at the track, the overall outcome for the weekend should get better. 

I should say that I do not believe this is a particular downfall of Earnhardt Jr. or Letarte, but that it is a product of a newer driver/crew chief combination that needs time for the maturation of communication and knowledge of the driver's handling preference.  This is somewhat shown in the difference in qualifying during the first half and second half of the season.  In the first half, the 88 team average a starting spot of 21st and had bettered that average by 3 to 18th for the second half of the season.

I fully believe this team will be successful and will win and that success will come in the 2012 season.  Surely "Team Earntarte" will not be satisfied with just 7th in the points when they left so much on the table this season.  Knowing they finished better than Gordon and only 14 points behind Johnson should only push them to see just how much more success they can have in the coming season.  I know all the "Jr Haters" will undoubtedly give me much grief for this post, but that is fine, I am sure there is plenty of server space at Blogger to accommodate all of your loving comments, just please keep it clean!

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The Most Boring Talladega Race Ever?

Yes, I said it.  I doubt I am the only one.  I am sure there will be plenty of reporters and comentators saying how great the two car racing is and how much the NASCAR fans love it.  My reply to them is best summed up by two words: Empty Seats.

Sure, some of you will say I am testy simply because Dale Jr. was relegated to another disappointing Talladega finish.  Perhaps you are correct, but let me finish.

I believe that NASCAR's premier series is best when they have 43 (or as close to 43 as they can get) competitive cars all racing to get their best finish.  No "team orders."  No need for a "partner." 

Yet this past Sunday we had about 20 teams competing.  We had drivers told not to help other makes (Ford, Chevy, Etc) so that drivers with their own make that are in the Chase would benefit.  (No, I am not just speaking of the Roush/Bayne situation, because I am sure it happened with other teams as well.)  We saw about half the field content with laying back until about 20 laps to go.  They were simply happy to just ride for about 170 laps to compete in the last 18. 

NASCAR, that is not competition.

After the race, Richard Childress made the point that the drivers are not on the track to simply ride around.  I am sure that his former driver of the #3 would totally agree.  Previously, Dale Jr. would have as well.  Although he and Johnson have laid back in the past 2 or 3 plate races, earlier in his career Junior prefered to be ahead of the "big one" rather than dodging it from the back of the pack.  Hopefully the Hendrick teams can see that laying back with this two car tandem racing may be easy to overcome with 100 laps to go, but not so easy when everyone else at the back is also trying to wake up and start racing in the final laps.

Don't get me wrong.   Although I do prefer the pack racing to this ridiculous two-car stuff, much of what I am complaining about would still occur.  Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. would probably still have "hidden out" in the back.  Trevor Bayne would still have been scolded for helping Jeff Gordon.

Should NASCAR fix this non-racing and make Talladega competitive again or should they simply tell the drivers that Talladega will only be 30 laps next year so they can conserve fuel and quit wasting tires simply to make time for commercials.  How many fans actually watched all 188 laps anyway?  I did.  But I will admit that the last 30 were the only laps where all the cars were actually competing. 

Again... NASCAR, that is not competition.

How can NASCAR fix the restrictor plate races.  Can they remove the restrictor plates?  This is what many NASCAR purists would love.  "Let 'em loose," they would say.  But with safety being so paramount these days, NASCAR will not let the cars maintain a speed above 200 mph.  Although that would do away with pack racing and tandem racing, if NASCAR says its not going to happen, it is not going to happen.

There are other possible solutions.  Changing the shape of the front and/or rear bumpers so that "linking up" is much more difficult is a possibility.  Opening the Restrictor plate up much more so that the car's ability to produce horsepower by itself makes running in a pack less necessary.  Mandate that the air intakes on the front bumper be only in the center of the bumper, that would really screw up the two car tandems.  I am sure there are others, but NASCAR should know after this weekend that 1/64th of an inch more opening in the restrictor plate and lowering the pressure allowed on the cooling system by a few pounds makes absolutely no difference whatsoever.

Perhaps NASCAR should conduct a test with one car from each team and experiment with several packages on track.  Obviously the wind patterns on the "drawing board" don't react the same way they do at Talladega and Daytona.

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Hendrick Motorsports Pushing The Envelope

For several years, the Hendrick organization, especially the 48 team, has been known for preparing for the Chase and then excelling during the final 10 races of the year.  Often the Lowe’s team has sacrificed domination earlier in the year in order to have dominant cars prepared for the Chase.

This weekend at the New Hampshire International Speedway, Hendrick Motorsports will be pushing the envelope.  Often teams will debut new chassis throughout the year, but this week at least 3 of the 4 Hendrick teams will be sporting a new ride.  Johnson, Earnhardt Jr., and Martin are all listed as bringing a new chassis to the “Magic Mile”, and both the 88 and the 5 are listed as untested new chassis.   The 24 may or may not be new, but they do not generally post their chassis selection prior to the race weekend. 

One would have to wonder if the Hendrick teams have found something in particular or if it is merely coincidence that they are bringing 3 new chassis to the track this week.  Although it is quite possible that they are all non-related, it looks like they possibly have found something in their engineering that they feel comfortable will produce results, especially since they are relying mostly on their 7 post shaker and computer models, etc. for their information on the untested chassis.

Someone more experienced and knowledgeable about the engineering and fabrication that go into the chassis development could probably give more insight about how much testing is needed these days prior to the track, but from someone on the outside looking in, this seems to be an aggressive move.   Of course, Hendrick has made some aggressive moves in recent months…  After moving three of your drivers to different teams within the Hendrick stable at the end of last year, sending three new cars to the track on one weekend does seem mild.

Last weekend Hendrick drivers moved around quite a bit.  Johnson moved down 2 spots and lost 7 points, Gordon moved down 8 spots and lost 22 points, Earnhardt Jr. gained 5 spots and lost 1 point, and Martin gained 14 points on 13^th place, the consolation spot at the end of the year.  If Hendrick has found something in its chassis engineering, the teams could definitely be dominant this weekend.  Three of the four drivers have won before at Loudon: Gordon twice, Johnson three times, and Martin once.

Time has seemed to look favorably on Hendrick’s last aggressive move, and time will tell on this move as well.  (Two and a half days to be exact…) 

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Top 6 Things To Watch In The 2011 Chase

With the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship beginning this weekend at the Chicagoland Speedway, fans are gearing up to watch what may well be the closest Chase to date and perhaps one of the tightest Championship races in NASCAR history. Many fans will cheer for their driver that is in the Chase or for someone locked out of the Chase looking for some wins before the end of the season. Fans will also be looking for more drama that has already been evident in the 2011 season.

Here is my list of the top 6 things to watch in this year’s Chase.

#6 - Who Will Jump To An Early Lead? In the 7 years of the Chase system, 5 times the eventual champion finished in the top 6 in the first race. With only 10 races to go, there is no time to get up to speed. Teams will have to come out of the shoots with everything they have. In three of the above years, the champion finished first or second in the first race. Look for the Chase contenders, especially those from 6th back, to aggressively push for the lead Sunday. Their Chase may depend on it.

#5 - Who Will Move To Another Team? Although the Chase beginning, “Silly Season” is by no means over. With plans up in the air at Red Bull Racing, a part time seat open at Stewart-Haas Racing, and a few drivers looking at possible rides, the 2011 Chase will also have some action from non-Chase drivers. Will any Nationwide regulars move up? Will Red Bull close their doors? Will Mark Martin retire…again? The next 10 races will tell.

#4 - How Will The “Wildcard” Drivers Do In The Chase? With the changes to this years points system and Chase format, the last two drivers in the Chase were based on win totals for drivers between 11th and 20th in the points standings. Since these drivers have been focused on winning, not points racing, and have built up some momentum, how will they fair over the next 10 races. Will they surge ahead with their momentum or will they fizzle out due to exhaustion of will and resources?

#3 - Will The Real Rowdy Busch Please Stand Up? Although some may describe him as slim (although gaining weight since being married) or shady, this season Kyle Busch has kept his frustration and anger on a tighter leash. Yes, the emphasis was on tightER. I do remember the pit road bumper cars with the 29, but he has been nowhere near as obnoxious as years past. Some say he is looking at the big picture to win a championship. Others say he will pop eventually. I’m willing to bet both might happen.

#2 - Which Car Will Get Wrecked First, The 48 Or The 22? Over the past several races, many fans have seen that Jimmy Johnson is not as “Vanilla” as most fans had thought. He and Kurt Busch, driver of the Penske owned 22 car, have repeatedly sparred, both on track and off track verbally. Both of these drivers are not likely to give up their Championship chances to wreck the other, but should both be near the back due to misfortune, look for some “have at it” to occur.

#1 - Can Anyone “Out Chase” Jimmy And Chad? For the last 5 years, nobody can deny that Chad Knaus and Jimmy Johnson have perfected the “Chase Run.” They have figured out just how to prepare in the spring and summer for the 10 races that decide the Champion, all while staying competitive and winning throughout the season. There are only two drivers in the Chase that can string wins together like Johnson, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon, neither of which have shown the late season surge that Johnson has made his trademark. Will Johnson’s nickname change to 6-time? Will Busch’s new attitude pay off? Or will “Big Papa” take the 24 back to the Championship for the first time since 2001?

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Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Backed Into A Corner

With only 8 races left until the Chase cut off, Dale Earnhardt Jr. finds himself backed into a corner once again. In the past 4 races he has watched his name slide from 3rd in the points to 8th, only 21 points inside the top 10, and his has gone from contending for wins, to not cracking the top 10.

Of course, being bitten by the bad luck bug has definitely not helped. Through the first 15 races Earnhardt had finished on the lead lap in all but two, however, in the last three races he has matched that same amount and wrecked to the finish in Daytona. A blown engine, caught up in a wreck, and a blown tire in three races. If luck is a lady, she’s been rather spiteful to the 88 lately.

Now I’m not saying that he was running well in those three races. He hates Infineon, hates tandem racing, and had never raced at Kentucky, and all three showed. Although he had a strong car at Daytona, he did not dominate there or even challenge for the top 10 at the other two.

Had his races not ended the same way, however, you would be looking at about 40 more points of a cushion on 11th place in the points. That would probably have put him in the “practically in” category, which is where I believe Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth are. By “practically in” I am referring to the top 10. If you look at the wild card, you would probably include Jeff Gordon, who has two wins, since all of the others behind him only have one. Either way, I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would like to have his place in the Chase solidified, and soon.

The prognosis of him being “in” sooner, rather than later, is not great. At the 8 remaining tracks, Junior has 6 wins, but all of those wins are at the last 4 before the Chase. The first 4, Loudon, Indianapolis, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, are challenges for him for sure. At both Indy and the Glen he has an average finish of 22nd, and at Loudon and Pocono he has been hot and cold. The little encouragement he has for the coming 4 races is that 3 of the 4 are similar tracks in that they have flatter corners. That is encouragement due to the fact that he finished 6th at the first Pocono race this year and 4th in his last visit to Loudon.

Earnhardt must come out of the corner swinging, though, as the only one of the 4 drivers immediately below him in points has a worse average finish at Loudon. That, even, is no consolation, since Clint Bowyers 16th place average there does not paint as complete a picture as his two wins.

I would speculate that Junior’s chances for a win at Bristol, Atlanta, or Richmond are high only if he does either great or poorly in the next 4 races. If he is still just inside the top 10, it may be too much of a temptation to be slightly less aggressive. However, if he is locked or almost locked into the Chase, or just outside the top 10, he will either be able to be aggressive or will have to be out of necessity.

Follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Earnhardt Returning To Familiar Ground

After posting an average finish of 19th over his career, Dale Earnhardt Jr. reaffirmed on Sunday that he has returned to competitiveness. Of course he was already in the top 5 in points and has been for several weeks, but when listening to people speak about his chances in 2011, one would have to think something would change mid season. This week he showed he was intent on staying near the top of the points.

Prior to Sunday, Junior had not finished in the top 10 at Pocono since the spring of 2008. In that race he finished 4th, then followed it up with a win at Michigan the next week, his last win. He may not be one of the strongest drivers at the 2 mile oval, but plan on seeing him near the front.

Although this weeks track is the location of his last win, it is not the only “Familiar Ground” Dale Earnhardt Jr. is returning to. It has been quite a while since Junior has been expected to contend for a win on a weekly basis, a change not lost on the North Carolina native. He has alluded on multiple occasions to the fact that he would rather be expected to win and get a decent finish than to not be on the radar at all.

Even if Dale Jr. is not at or near the front for a majority of the race, don’t worry, he will get there by the end. That has indeed been one of the most refreshing changes for the 88 team. Earnhardt Jr. has finished, on average, 3.5 places better than his average running position this year. In fact, in 10 of 14 races this year he has surged forward at the end. That means that the 88 team is making the right changes coming down the stretch.

The most undeniable reason for that statistic is that the communication between driver and crew chief is, beyond a doubt, better than it has been for quite a while. The other reason for the late race improvement is that, not only has Earnhardt’s confidence in his crew chief grown, but his self-confidence has grown as well.

Also, Michigan is a notorious fuel mileage track, which will seem typical for 2011. Due to the long, green-flag runs, common at Michigan, gas mileage is always at the forefront when preparing for this weeks race. Given the 88 team’s ability to stay close on fuel mileage races in 2011, expect to see Earnhardt’s crew chief, Steve Letarte, have the strategy down pat should it come to it on Sunday.

For Hendrick Motorsports in general, Michigan has its ups and downs. Jeff Gordon has 2 wins at the track, his average finish there is 11.4, and he has eight 2nd place finishes. Mark Martin has 5 wins at Michigan, an average finish of 13.6, but his last three finishes there were 16th or worse. And Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of only 15.2, has no wins, and only has 2 top 5’s in 18 starts there.

Follow Joseph on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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