Biggest Surprise And Biggest Dissapointment Of 2013

With every coming season, pundits and fans alike have their preconceptions about how the season will go.  Who will be strong?  Who will be looking for a ride at the end of the year?  And will any newcomers stake out their place at the table?

This year had many story lines, and as I included in my previous post, some of them were not so good for NASCAR as a whole.  One definite story line throughout the season was the constant ups and downs of the Penske Racing Miller Lite team and their driver Brad Keselowski. 

In 2012, the 2 team won 5 races, 2 of which came in the Chase.  They never fell below 12th in the points after the Talladega spring race, which began their gradual climb to the top.  And finally, the Miller Lite team had no DNF's after the first race of the year.  As a whole, the team was consistent, communicated efficiently, and was constantly a threat to win.

After all the banquets, parties, and appearances on late night talk shows, Keselowski and Penske Racing began the process of changing over to Ford from the departing Dodge Racing.  All seemed well as the season began: Keselowski opened up with 4 straight top 4 finishes and 7 top 10's out of the first 8 races. 

Then came Richmond.

Keselowski finished the 3/4 mile track 8 laps down and in 33rd position.  All seemed fine from the outside, but problems adjusting to the new Ford front for the Gen 6 car and other engineering changes for Ford power plants no doubt added to bad luck.  Over the next few races and then during the summer run up to the Chase, the 2 team had 3 top 5 finishes and 4 top 10's in 17 races.  In 2012 they had 2 wins, 8 top 5's, and 11 top 10's over the same stretch.

The frustration was clear.  Team radio chatter showed a break down in communication almost on a weekly basis.  Despite their best efforts, the Miller Lite team came up shy of the Chase cutoff and could not defend their championship, earning them the "Biggest Disappointment" title for 2013.

Entering speedweeks in 2013, most people took for granted that the dominant teams of the season would be, as always, the Hendrick, Roush, Penske, Gibbs, Stewart-Haas and Childress teams, perhaps adding some success by Michael Waltrip Racing.  Although many people in and out of the garage had and will have respect for the driving abilities of Kurt Busch, successfully driving a single car team to the Chase was not thought of as a probability.

2013 would prove interesting for the Furniture Row Racing team.  Their new driver, fresh off season a season of aggravation driving for Phoenix Racing, was coming into the season with the knowledge that if he did not succeed with the 78, and did not do so without controversial on or off track events, he may well be finished.  That is, at least, for the top tier teams.

This season saw some of the brash older Busch, but never crossing the line, always careful to stay away from the press when he couldn't control his tongue.  On track, Busch was back to his old form.  He didn't quite pull off a win for FRR, but a Chase berth for a single car team is just shy of a championship.  After 1 top 5 finish and 5 top 10's for Phoenix Racing, Busch posted 11 top 5's and 16 top 10's in the 78, including 3 top 5's in the Chase.

Although he has gone winless for two straight seasons now, Busch did win a ride for a top tier team, Stewart Haas Racing, and along with it, the "Biggest Surprise" title for the 2013 season.

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'01 Til Now, With Dale Earnhardt...

This week marks 12 years since the 2001 Daytona 500 which ended in the tragic death of NASCAR great Dale Earnhardt.  In the wake of Earnhardt's death, NASCAR embarked on the largest safety renovation in its history, resulting in the safety of the sport in 2013.  After NASCAR celebrated the coming Daytona 500 with a remebrance of Dale Earnhardt, one must think about what might have been.

How would the sport have progressed in the past 12 years had Earnhardt not died?  Would safety measures have been made and what other differences would their be?  Lets take a look back at how the past 12 years would have been with Dale Earnhardt around.

Imagine the victory lane celebration February 18, 2001 when Michael Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Dale Earnhardt finished 1, 2, 3.  Earnhardt now has an established NASCAR Cup Series team, capable of winning and competing each week.  He just finished second in the points in 2000 and is on the upswing again in his career.  After winning a couple races in 2001 he finishes a close second to Jeff Gordon in the 2001 Cup Championship.

In the next couple of years, driver injuries and another driver death add to the recent deaths of Kenny Irwin and Adam Petty to force NASCAR into further safety measures.  Only a handful of drivers still use open-faced helmets, but all drivers use some form of head and neck restraining device.  NASCAR is also developing safety measure in the cars to absorb more force on impact.

After finishing 5th in the 2002 Cup Series Championship points, Dale Earnhardt decides to retire after the 2003 season.  Dale Jr. finished the 2002 season 3rd in points propelling him to a Championship challenge in 2003.  New talk by NASCAR about a wider, taller, safer car with identical front ends for all manufacturers is met by contention from NASCAR veterans.  NASCAR adapts the front ends to incorporate more brand identity.

In 2004 Dale Earnhardt joins Darrell Waltrip in the broadcasting booth for a few races to add commentary, but decides against a long term contract citing too much hot air in the booth coming from Waltrip as a reason to stay on pit road.  With late season coaching from his father, Dale Jr. wins the 2004 Championship, giving DEI its first Championship and the Earnhardt family its eighth. 

Over the next few years NASCAR sees many changes amongst teams.  There is an addition of a 4th DEI team, as Earnhardt has recruited Tony Stewart away from Joe Gibbs Racing, making the DEI stable every bit as strong as NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports.  Hendrick, losing hardheaded driver Kyle Busch to JGR, adds newcomer Juan Pablo Montoya from F1 in a single car partnership with Chip Ganassi and adds Mark Martin from Jack Roush's stable, outbidding startup owner Ginn Racing.

Heading into the current decade, NASCAR has now begun to eclipse the NFL in total market share, and continues to expand into new markets, despite a steep downturn in the economy.  However, fans still appreciate NASCAR's roots, such as its annual Labor Day weekend at the Southern 500 at Darlington, South Carolina.

No, that is not how things turned out, and probably light years from how it may have happened, but one could definitely see how the sport would have been different had the '01 500 ended differently.  Dale Earnhardt was a huge part of the sport's success, not always perfect, but always a part of the conversation.  No doubt NASCAR would be different, but one can only speculate in what ways.

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2012: In With A Bang, Out With A Kes

NASCAR's 2012 Sprint Cup season is over and gone, but before we begin to speculate about what may be for 2013, lets take one last look at the wild ride that was the 2012 season.

The 2012 season story began with several before/after stories.  To begin, Kyle Busch, a perennial threat with the ability to win every week, won the Budweiser Shootout.  Many people would have thought the 18 bunch could have put together a strong run this year, but shortly into the season their wheels would fall off.  He did manage a points win at Richmond, but that would be all for him in 2012, his lowest win total since 2007.

The next before and after story would have to be the before and after photos of Daytona International Speedway after Juan Pablo Montoya played demolition derby with a jet dryer.  Fortunately nobody was hurt, but the ensuing fire and inspection of the track caused the Daytona 500 to end well into the night.

Another early season story we saw was Matt Kenseth's dominance.  He won the Daytona 500 and ended up the points leader by mid season, but his contract talks with Roush Fenway Racing fell apart.  Probably the largest blunder RFR has made, Kenseth ended up signing to drive for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, effectively ending the teams ability to race for the 2012 championship.

Returning to challenge for the Sprint Cup points lead this year was driver 88, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  After beginning the year with a large stretch of top 10 runs, he finally returned to victory lane at Michigan with a dominating performance.  Although he did reach the points lead briefly during the summer, his season slowed after an initial concussion at a Kansas tire test in August, then totally stopped with a second concussion and ensuing 2 week break at Talladega. 

One of the most entertaining stories of the season was the tension and on-track altercation between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer.  After consistent contact between the 15 and 24 for a couple races, Gordon finally had all he could handle and wrecked Bowyer during the final laps of the Phoenix Chase race, effectively ending Bowyer's chances at winning the championship.  The ensuing melee in the garage area brought about probations and fines a plenty and added to the drama when the two drivers finished first and second in the season ending race at Homestead.  I doubt the two will be drafting partners at Daytona come February.

The final story of the season came down to Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson.  Many people wondered whether the young driver could handle the pressure and hold back the five time champion for the 2012 Sprint cup, but as the end of the Chase grew closer, it was Johnson, Knaus, and the 48 crew that did not stand up to the pressure.  Keselowski obtained the points lead after a misstep by the Lowe's team at Phoenix and did not let it go.

The stories of the 2012 season were plenty and were fun to follow.  There were great races, a good Chase, and even some altercations in the garage.  Here's hoping the 2013 season will rise to the occasion.

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On Your Mark!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 6th-12th

Now that all of the jockeying for a Chase spot is over, the attention of twelve drivers will turn toward the final ten races of the year.  As the Chase is complete with downforce tracks, a restrictor plate track, a short track, a concrete track, a flat track, and the one of a kind Homestead, a well rounded racer should do well.  However, with only 10 races to go, and every point important, a driver with the ability to finish well every week will be hard to beat as well.

12th - Jeff Gordon: Gordon made his way into this year's Chase with a great finish at Richmond after struggling early.  Although this team needed help from a bad finish by the 18 team to make the Chase, don't count them out easily.  Gordon is a 4 time champ, is the most winning active driver, and is always capable of hitting a hot streak.  Gordon averages a 12.2 place finish at the 10 tracks and has 31 wins on them.

11th - Kasey Kahne: The 5 team made the Chase with Kahne in their first year together due, in large part, to Kahne's strong wins early in the season.  Although Kahne has not been unstopable during the summer, he has maintained a strong team and his two wins solidified their Chase spot.  Kahne has never excelled at the Chase, his best finish being 8th, but he has also not competed in the Chase in a Hendrick car.  Kahne has an average finish of 16.3 with 7 wins at the Chase tracks.

10th - Martin Truex Jr.: How this team made the Chase with such strong runs and did not win, I do not know, but nevertheless, they are in and looking for a win.  Truex has never finished in the top 10 in the Sprint Cup Series, but don't count this team out.  They have been consistent all season and should have a good showing.  Truex has an average finish of 15.7 with his only career win coming at the Chase track of Dover.

9th - Kevin Harvick: Will the 29 team's crew chief change make a big enough difference for them to have a productive Chase?  Only time will tell.  Harvick does have some unfinished business in the Chase after coming in third the past two years, but with zero wins on the year, finishing the season out with a couple of wins to head into 2013 may be a more realistic goal.  Harvick has an average finish of 13.7 and has 8 wins at the Chase tracks.

8th - Matt Kenseth: After being at the points lead for much of the season, Kenseth dropped to 8th due to only producing one win in the regular season.  Although the team said Kenseth's coming departure to Joe Gibbs Racing would not be a distraction, competitiveness has tapered off in the past few weeks.  Kenseth could do well in the Chase, but with RFR preparing for Stenhouse Jr. to take over that ride and Kenseth preparing commercialse for his new sponsor for next year (Home Depot), it is not likely.  Kenseth has an average finish of 14.8 and has 8 wins at Chase tracks.

7th - Dale Earnhardt Jr.:  Dale Jr. enters the Chase in 7th place, the exact same spot he finished last year.  Although he has an average finish of 16.6 at the Chase tracks, he has 10 wins on them.  He only posted one top 5 in last year's chase, but with an average finish of 6.1 on downforce tracks this season, his 2012 Chase is bound to be more productive.

6th - Clint Bowyer:  In his first year in a MWR Toyota, Bowyer makes the Chase as one of two MWR teams in the Chase.  Although many people thought he would not do as well in his first year at a "weaker" team, his old team, RCR, is only sending one car to the Chase.  Bowyer has some good tracks in the Chase and proved with his win last weekend at Richmond that he could be a force in the Chase outcome.  Bowyer has an average finish of 14.6 and 4 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Is Kenseth's 2012 A Replay Of Edwards In 2011?

Another Sprint Cup season for Roush Fenway Racing and again they have a couple of drivers in serious contention to win the Sprint Cup Championship.  Last year, Carl Edwards started the season strong.  He won at Las Vegas and quickly rose to the top of the Sprint Cup points standings.  This year, both Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth have had the points lead, which is currently Kenseth's.

However, soon conversations in 2011 began to focus on the fact that Carl Edwards was a man without a contract.  His contract with RFR was to end and the finish of the 2011 season, and much speculation was given to the possibility of him leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing.  For weeks reporters would ask Carl if he would be driving a orange toyota in 2012, and for weeks they would get his patented smile and a kind comment about RFR working on a contract.

The questions were soon answered as the summer began to end, and Edwards and the 99 crew were able to finish the season out with a tie for the points lead which resulted in a second place finish (due to a tie-breaker rule.)  However, Edwards did not dominate any more races and had no wins, in the Chase or otherwise, after his one early-season win at Las Vegas.  Had he won ONE more race he would have won the Championship.  Period.

Now, in 2012, rumors have been swirling around Kenseth's future.  His RFR contract is over at season's end, and many have wondered if he would leave his long-time home.  Now, this week Roush reports that defending Nationwide Series champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be replacing Kenseth at RFR in the 2013 season.  Will Kenseth be driving a Toyota in 2013?  Will he bring Ford back to Penske Racing?  We will likely know by week's end.

What we do know is that for a second year in a row, Roush has a driver who is hot and contending for a championship, yet they are unsure about their future.  Yes, Edwards did have a successful year in 2011, but few would doubt that he could have won another race had contract talks been completed prior to the 2011 season, which would have led to his first championship.  Add on top of that, Kenseth will be dealing with going to a new team, who will be his crew chief, who will be his sponsor, etc, and the likelihood that the 17 will be celebrating after Homestead becomes low.

Either Roush has the worst timing and luck in the NASCAR garage, or someone seriously needs to question their wisdom about personnel management.  Had Edwards won the 2011 championship, sponsorship and money woes would have undoubtedly been less of a strain in 2012, and he may have kept the Cup another year.

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Darrell Wallace Jr: Logano, Round 2?

Four years ago, Joe Gibbs Racing began to introduce a new star to the sport of stock car racing. "Sliced Bread" was to be the next Richard Petty, was the greatest young driver ever seen by some, and was expected to make NASCAR his playground.

Over the next few seasons, Joey Logano has gained mutual respect from other NASCAR drivers, but has failed to wow fans and has won just one race. He has, however, dominated at times in the Nationwide Series where he and his JGR teammates have been the cream of the crop over the last three years.

Perhaps Logano was brought all the way up to the Cup Series before he was ready. JGR was looking for a replacement for Tony Stewart at the time who was leaving, and was, no doubt, looking for a bright, young face that could keep some sponsors. That they got.

With his 12 wins in the Nationwide Series it's easy to think that Logano would have won a Nationwide Championship by now and could have eased his way into the upper level. Perhaps his confidence would have been kept in tact and he would have had an easier time acclimating to the Sprint Cup Series. Who knows?

With Wallace Jr., however there is yet another piece of the NASCAR pie on the line. Wallace Jr. is the best new hope of NASCAR's Drive For Diversity program. Wallace Jr., an African American, has had great success in the K&N Series, and will be expected to continue that progression in the Nationwide Series for JGR. Hopefully the Gibbs organization has learned some lessons from Logano.

One benefit Wallace Jr. will have is that, although JGR may be looking to add a 4th car at some point to its Cup stable, there is no superstar seat to fill to make them do so in a hurried fashion as they did with Logano. JGR has the ability to allow Wallace Jr. The time to mature in the Nationwide Series and become accustomed to the press, fans, and everything else "NASCAR."

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Can Kyle Busch Focus?

Over the last 10 years, no drivers have been compared to the late Dale Earnhardt more than Kyle Busch with exception of Dale Jr. and possibly Tony Stewart.  Kyle Busch has been known for his smirky grins, his dented front bumper, and his ability to let his temper both push him to win and at times push him to be called on the carpet by NASCAR.  There is probably no closer copy of Dale Earnhardt's early years in NASCAR.

Long before the black #3 had millions of fans and won 6 championships in 9 years, Dale Earnhardt drove a pink #2 followed by the yellow #3 Wrangler car.  Those cars and Earnhardt's long hair and bushy mustache were synonymous with on-track beating and banging.  Yes Earnhardt won the championship in 1980, his second year, but he did not produce consistent domination until he developed his ability for long term focus. 

There is no worker in the garage, fan in the stands, or commentator on Sunday afternoons that doubts Kyle Busch's ability for short term focus.  Every driver in NASCAR knows exactly how far Busch will go if he ends up on their rear bumper with 10 to go.  But what Kyle Busch has lacked is the ability turn winning races into winning Sprint Cups.

Part of what has been in Kyle's way of winning Cups is the fact that the season is long.  Thirty years ago when Dale Earnhardt was wrecking Waltrip and Labonte the season was 29 or 30 races long.  Today Busch is driving in 36 Sprint Cup races per season.  That is, when he can control himself.  Sure that is only 6 more races, you may say, but that is a month and a half more of a season.  Multiply on top of that the fact that Busch has been racing Nationwide races and truck series races and managing his own truck series team.  No wonder that by mid October he may not remember exactly where NASCAR's line is.  I'm sure they are more than happy to point it out for him when needed.

Some of that packed schedule may be thinned for the 2012 season.  Word out this week is that Busch will possibly run a small Nationwide schedule with little to no truck series races.  Although Busch would rather be behind the wheel than anywhere else, perhaps given some time to sit and watch could do him good, especially as the season progresses.

In the past 4 years Kyle Busch has had one of the best winning totals in NASCAR, 19 wins, just two behind Jimmie Johnson.  However, in those years when he should have contended and possibly won championships, Busch had zero wins in the final 12 races of the year.  Actually, Kyle Busch has only one Chase win in his career and that was in 2005.  Also, in 2008 when Busch dominated victory lane with 8 wins, he had no wins in the final 14 races.  All of the 8 wins came in the first 22 races.  Yes, 8 out of 22 is domination, but 0 for 14 allows championships to slip away, especially in the Chase format.

Will a thinning of his itinerary and a tight grip on the reigns by Joe and J.D. Gibbs propel Busch to contend and perhaps win the championship in 2012 or beyond?  Time will tell, but I don't foresee him wrecking any cars under caution or spinning any unmanned cars on pit road during the 2012 season.  That, of course, doesn't mean he can't "rattle their cage" every now and then...

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Drivers, Crew Chiefs And Job Applications, Oh My!!

Although there is generally a drop-off in the amount of NASCAR drama to comment on once the season has ended, the 2011-2012 off-season is proving to provide a wealth of material.  Yes, the off-season is known as the end of "silly season" for a reason, but usually the drivers that are looking to secure a ride in November and December are coming from mid to lower tier teams. 

This year the available driver pool is packed with 2 drivers from top tier teams, Kurt Busch from Penske and David Ragan from Roush Fenway, and 2 drivers from mid tier teams, Brian Vickers from Red Bull and David Reutimann from Michael Waltrip Racing.  While each of these drivers carry there own issues, they all have won at the highest level of stock car racing and one of them is a former Sprint Cup Champion.

Not only has their been a heavy load of drivers coming on the "market" this fall, there are also a couple of winning crew chiefs available.  After winning 5 of 10 Chase races and the 2011 Spring Cup Championship, Darian Grubb apparently was not quite achieving the level of success Tony Stewart was looking for, so he is now looking for a job.  Also, after an up and down year, mostly down, Mike Ford, crew chief for Denny Hamlin, is now out of his seat at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Although a couple of the above have just exited their positions, two of them are rumored to be close to nailing down their next gig.  David Ragan been supposedly putting on a full court press to land in the seat of the #22 Penske Racing Dodge vacated by Kurt Busch.  Ragan had been under contract with Roush Fenway Racing through 2012, even though his #6 Ford was without sponsorship next season and was unlikely to run a full schedule.  Ragan has now been released from his contract by RFR, but nothing concrete has been commented on by Penske Racing.

Darian Grubb, defending crew chief champion, has been said to be the leading candidate for the crew chief slot for the #11 FedEx Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.  Although he has less career wins than former crew chief Mike Ford, Grubb is coming off of his championship run with Tony Stewart, so if he and Hamlin can get up to speed quickly, they could be contenders come Chase time in 2012.

One unanswered question as of yet is, with three winning drivers left available, will any top tiered teams or mid tier teams add a car to their stable?  It is not altogether likely that Vickers, Reutimann, or even Busch in his current state, could land a sponsor big enough to start a new car with a top team like JGR, RFR, Stewart Haas or RCR, but Vickers and especially Busch could definitely land a sponsor large enough for a car with Richard Petty Racing who had flirted with adding a car earlier in the year when all of the Danica craze was going on.  Either way, there will be some new looking cars on the track come January at the Daytona test prior to speedweeks.

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Where Will Busch Go?

With all of the season ending craziness coming to an end, and after some time to hear from sponsors, Kurt Busch and Roger Penske decided to part ways.  Kurt Busch will not drive a Penske Dodge next year, leaving the #22 Penzoil Dodge open for David Ragan or another driver looking for a ride.

But just where will Busch go?

Its not as if we didn't expect to be asking that question this off-season, except most of you probably expected it would be Kyle Busch looking for a job.  However, after Kurt's tirade at the season ending race at Homestead, he will be looking for his third Sprint Cup ride. 

Busch entered the Sprint Cup Series for 7 races in 2000 in the #97 Roush Ford.  After winning a Sprint Cup Championship in 2004, Busch's relationships at Roush Fenway Racing became strained.  He then exited after 2005 to drive for Roger Penske, taking over the driving responsibilities for the blue #2 from retiring driver, Rusty Wallace.

After 10 wins and many ups and downs, the aggravation felt by Busch finally came to a head in a tirade focust at Dr. Jerry Punch, TV racing commentator/analyst, simply for having to wait for the live feed for his interview.

Now that he is without a ride, Busch may find it difficult to find a job with a top tier team.  All of the seats at Hendrick are currently filled.  Although there is a seat open at Roush Fenway Racing, they are without a sponsor, and due to old issues that move would be highly unlikely.  RCR has an open seat, but it is only open for part of the year, with Childress running his grandson, Austin Dillon, for a small schedule.  That leaves JGR, SHR, and EGR. 

Joe Gibbs has his hands full with the refitting of his three teams that did not have a good 2011, so they would be unlikely to add another possible headache.  Stewart Haas is has a full time slot and a part time slot, but without a solid sponsor would likely shy away from starting a fourth team while they are preparing to run a limited schedule with Danica Patrick in 2012.  And EGR, coming off one of their worst seasons as an organization, would have trouble getting another large sponsor without some recent success.

Start his own team or buy into a small organization?  Race into obscurity with a "go or go home" team?  I have no idea on this one.  I can definitely guarantee one thing is certain: Kurt Busch could really use a Miller Lite about now.

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Which Was The Best, And Worst, Owner In 2011?

As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season has drawn to a close, many people are focusing on which driver was best, or which team made the most improvements, but how do the owners, garages and operations as a whole rank?

1.  Stewart Haas Racing- It should be a surprise to nobody that SHR was the best organization in 2011.  At least not now that the season is over.  SHR won the Championship, had 6 wins, had both drivers in the top 10 in points, and owner/driver dominated the victory lanes of the Chase races, winning 5 of 10.  Of course, resting on your laurels gets you nowhere, so Tony Stewart has removed his crew chief Darian Grubb and has added Steve Addington, former crew chief of Kyle Busch and most recently Kurt Busch.  Time will tell if Stewart has made a logical or an emotional choice with this change.

2.  Roush Fenway Racing- Ahh, I'm sure owner Jack Roush and driver Carl Edwards are tired of seeing their name by the number 2, but so be it.  RFR had 5 wins, 2 cars in the top 5 in points, finished runner up for the Championship, and their average points finish was 11th.  Had Edwards grabbed a win from Stewart during the Chase, their offseason would have been much sweeter.

3.  Hendrick Motorsports-  I cannot remember back far enough to tell you how long it has been since Hendrick was not the top organization in NASCAR.  Don't get me wrong, with both a 5 time and a 4 time Champ, HMS is not weak by any measurement.  In 2011, HMS had 5 wins, 3 cars inside the top 10 in points, and averaged a points finish of just over 10th.  One has to wonder just what changes are in store at HMS this offseason after the wholesale changes after the 2010 season.

4.  Richard Childres Racing-  Many people though that this organization would capture another Cup title in 2011 after Kevin Harvicks performance last year, backed up by his late-race charging wins this year.  However, after Harvick stumbled a little early in the Chase and Bowyer, Menard and Burton missed the Chase, this group is looking to improve in 2012.  RCR had 6 wins, 1 team in the top 5 in points, and had an average points finish of 13th.

5.  Penske Racing-  It seemed as though Penske may have regained some strenth in 2011.  Although he proved inconsistent throughout the season, Kurt Busch had some dominating races early in the season, and teammate Brad  Keselowski caught on fire, figuratively, of course, during the summer to surge into the Chase.  Penske finished with 5 wins, both drivers inside the top 12, and an average finish of 8th in the points.

6.  Joe Gibbs Racing-  With Hamlin, "Shrub", and "Sliced Bread", many think this team is the most underproducing organization in NASCAR.  They definitely have the talent, but with the 20 team of Logano growing cold, Hamlin struggling, and Busch holding it together only to come apart at the seams, JGR has much offseason work to do.  JGR finished with 5 wins, 2 drivers in the top 12 in points, and average a points finish of 15th.

7.  Richard Petty Racing-  Many would have laughed if they had been told that RPM would have finished as well as they have in 2011.  Although they are not dominating, Allmendinger finished strong in many races and Ambrose claimed RPM a win.  The two averaged a finishing points position of 17th, and have much to build upon for next year.  It is unlikely, however, that these two drivers can make it into the Chase without more consistent good finishes.

8.  Team Red Bull-  Although their existence is in doubt for the 2012 season, they were not the worst team in 2011, largely due to the performance of exiting driver Kasey Kahne.  Had they only had Brian Vickers on track to hit as many cars as he could, they would not have had their 1 win and a car finishing inside the top 15 in points.  The two teams averaged a final points position of 20th.

9.  Michael Waltrip Racing-  Already making big changes for 2012 by adding Clint Bowyer, removing Reutimann, and making other staff changes, MWR is need of improvement for next season.  Not only did they not win any races, but had they not had some strong finished in the Chase they would have been mostly invisible for the season.  MWR had one driver in the top 20 and averaged a final points position of 23rd.

10.  Earnhardt Ganassi Racing-  After last years performance at the premier races of Daytona and Indianapolis, few would have thought that EGR would have had such a dissapointing year in 2011.  Both of the drivers are coming back next year, so look for changes to take place both in the pit box and in the garage if EGR hopes to improve in 2012.  EGR had no drivers in the top 20 in points, and they averaged a final points position of 24th.

The obvious honorable mentions for this list would have to be for both Wood Brothers Racing and Furniture Row Racing.  Trevor Bayne and Regan Smith snagged huge wins for these two small operations.

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NASCAR's Burning Busch...

As everyone who follows NASCAR knows, this past weekend NASCAR "benched" Kyle Busch, driver of the Joe Gibbs Racing number 18 M&M's Toyota, not only for the Nationwide Series race on Saturday, but also for the Sprint Cup Series race on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway.  After spinning Truck Series driver and championship contender Ron Hornaday during a caution flag lap, Busch was called onto the carpet by NASCAR for what may be the worst penalty of his career.  May be...

I say that because NASCAR has made it clear to great drivers in the past and no doubt has made it clear to Mr. Busch now that NASCAR races will continue whether he is in a car or not.  Past greats such as Rusty Wallace and Darrell Waltrip have made comments in the past that they have been cut down to size by NASCAR as well, so the sentiment is not new, but one has to wonder just how Kyle Busch will receive it.  Will Busch continue to burn out of control or will the fire be put out?  Hopefully for Kyle Busch and JGR it will be somewhere in the middle.

This season supposedly brought out the "new and improved" Kyle Busch after JGR had to reassure sponsors last year that Busch would play by rules and be a good face for their brands.  The new calmer and less "Rowdy" Busch, who most of the year looked as though he had gained a few pounds after his off-season marriage, won less races during the 2011 season but seemed poised to make a serious run for the Sprint Cup as he entered the Chase.  No doubt the let down of another Cup slipping away from his grasp fanned the flame in his Toyota Tundra last Friday night.

Another question is what assurance can Joe and JD Gibbs give their #18 sponsors heading into the 2012 season that this will not occur again?  Will any of their sponsors look elsewhere to spend their money?  Only time will tell.  I am sure that if Busch begins to stack up wins again that the sponsors will be happy to ride along, no matter how bumpy the road.

It may well be a good idea for JGR to seek sponsorship money for the #18 from UFC, WWE, or perhaps having him do some public awareness ads showing him teaching police officers how to properly spin cars out with the PIT maneuver.  Give him a black paint job, buy the #13 for him, and embrace the image.  Or better yet, buy him the #2 and paint the car pink.  To much, Earnhardt fans?  Don't tar and feather me, I am one of you.

The simple fact is that a "Rowdy" Busch is good for NASCAR.  Does NASCAR need Kyle Busch, no more than they need in-car cameras or double-file restarts.  But they sure make the races more interesting.

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What Does Carl Edwards Want?

Each Summer NASCAR begins their “Silly Season” talk, filled with suspicions, rumors, and plots about who will change teams, who will reorganize, and who will be left out of the musical chairs game that is the Sprint Cup Garage. The 2011 season, of course, is no different. While I maintain that the biggest name to land for next year is Danica Patrick, Carl Edwards is, by far, the most chased driver in the Cup garage.

Edwards’ contract with Jack Roush and Roush Fenway Racing is over at the end of the 2011 season, and as he has yet to sign a new contract with RFR, suspicions and rumors are flying that he will be leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing. Gibbs is the strongest team with an extra seat available to offer, so the possibility makes some sense, but would the move be anything more than a lateral move?

Although JGR has had a championship contender and multiple wins over the past few years, they have not necessarily left RFR behind. Both teams are among the top tier in NASCAR.

So then one would have to wonder what Edwards is looking for.

If it is more money, the addition of Ford in the effort with RFR to keep Edwards should help. Then again, Toyota would likely give just as much to get Edwards whose selling ability is as good as or better than that of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano combined. So if both are willing to meet what Edwards is looking for in pay, what else is there?

Perhaps Edwards is looking for a fresh start. He has not slowed on the track, but his wins the past few years have slowed from ’05, ’07, and ’08. From 2005-2008 he had 17 wins in spite of being shut out in 2006. However from 2009 to now he has only 3. Yes, the new Ford engines have given him some boost this year, but that has yet to translate into victory lane appearances.

With the current level of parity in NASCAR’s premier league, a move from one top tier team to another is not likely going to make a big difference in equipment and manpower. Even Hendrick Motorsports, once seen as head and shoulders about the other teams, has been brought back to the pack. So whatever Edwards basis his opinion on will have to give him peace of mind that the owner will not only give Edwards plenty of people, but the right people. He will have to feel that the owner is committed to putting him not just in victory lane, but at the head of the table in November at the awards ceremony.

Either way, I can only say one thing to him… Carl, while you’re thinking about this future altering decision….remember to turn left…

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Danica To The Lead, In Silly Season

While the 2011-2012 Silly Season is in full swing, it has, to this point, been less than dramatic. The main players (Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, and Mark Martin) have either already signed with their current team or aren’t generating much buzz. That is, with exception to Carl Edwards.

Edwards’ contract with Jack Roush and Roush Fenway Racing comes to a close at the end of 2011, and although most people have all but signed the contract for him, Edwards is still a free agent…kind of. He is weighing his options, yet few people think he would leave a team that has made him a contender for a few years now. Be that as it may, his top suitor, Joe Gibbs Racing according to rumors, will continue to gain his attention.

While all of this has been slowly developing, Danica Patrick has been fulfilling her obligations to Andretti Autosport in the Indy Car series, until Friday night. She returned Friday to race in the Nationwide Series race at Daytona International speedway for JRMotorsports.

When she raced there in February, Patrick was timid at best in the two car packs. Although she managed a respectable 14th place finish there, she wowed few. However, in this week’s race Patrick seemed aggressive and comfortable. She was even more comfortable for all of the off-track conversation.

Patrick has been asked before whether she will move from Indy Car to a full time NASCAR ride, a topic she has kept at arms length. This week, though, she simply reacted as if the intention is there but the deal just has not been signed. If she is truly interested in a 2012 ride, the season will definitely get silly.

Danica is no doubt one of the best marketing opportunities that has come to NASCAR in quite a while, but to this point had not proven herself worthy of a full time ride and a shot at a Sprint Cup ride in the future. Although I am sure any team would have jumped at signing her, she is much more profitable to them if she is contending for wins.

In 2010 she had only one finish inside the top 20, often finishing several laps behind the leaders. Yet in 2011, it seems as though Patrick has gotten more comfortable with both the different car and the different style of racing. In only 6 races she has posted 3 top 10 finishes and has only one finish outside the top 20. That is definitely a turnaround from a year ago.

The main question that will have to be answered is where will she go? JRMotorsports would surely be glad to sign her for a full season in the Nationwide Series for 2012, but they do not have a Sprint Cup team, which she will probably want for at least a few races in 2012. No matter where she goes, plan on hearing about it for the rest of this year.

Oh yea, has Carl Edwards signed yet??

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Joe Gibbs Racing Faces Tough Four Races

Coming out of an up and down Coke 600, Joe Gibbs Racing is sitting in pretty good position for the season. Kyle Busch is 5th in the points standings and has two wins and Hamlin and Logano seem to have survived recent team issues and are beginning to be competitive again. And although Hamlin and Logano are outside the top ten, they are making ground. Hamlin is just 18 points out and Logano is 74 points out. Both still can make the Chase.

The next four races, however, pose quite a task for the team. Although there are bright spots, like Pocono for Hamlin, these next races have not been kind to the team as a whole. There will be JGR fans reading this that will scoff at this thought, since JGR has 6 combined wins at the next four tracks of Kansas, Pocono, Michigan, and Sonoma, but please, hear me out.

JGR has an average finish of 19th for the combined four tracks. That number may be decent for some teams, but for a top 5 team and two teams struggling to get in the top 10, they won’t get the job done. Not to mention, a return to aggravation for the 20 and 11 teams could very well be catastrophic right now.

Does this mean that success it out of the question for a few weeks? No! Only a fool would bet against Kyle Busch as long as there is gas in the car, Denny Hamlin is a virtual lock for a top 5 at Pocono, and Michigan is one of Logano’s best tracks in his young career.

What will be the test, however, is can all three of these teams put together the run they need over a stretch of races that are historically unkind to them. Especially the 11 and 20 teams that need to continue their march toward the top 10.

Although Logano’s average finish for the four races is the lowest at 22nd, Kyle Busch’s average finish of 20th is probably the most surprising. In fact, Busch’s best average finish out of the four tracks is his average of 18th at Michigan. At each of the other three he averages 20th or higher.

The coming race at Kansas is historically one of the most problematic for the JGR teams. The JGR average finish at Kansas is an unacceptable 23rd, with Hamlin averaging 18th, Busch 24th, and Logano 28th in his three visits to the 1.5 mile track.

Yes, the work will be difficult for the next four races, but don’t plan on seeing me bet against JGR. Each of the drivers, especially Busch and Hamlin, have proven that they are capable of winning anywhere. We will see if they can conquer the coming tracks en route to a possibly challenging for the championship again.

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #1- Joe Gibbs Racing

The top team going into the 2011 season has to be Joe Gibbs Racing. Of course Denny Hamlin somewhat fell apart the last three races and Kyle Busch wasn't competitive in the Chase, but trust me. I'm sure Mr Gibbs knows he has some mending to do on the 11 team and needs to hit the reset button on the 18, but he is Joe Gibbs.

The driver I think Gibbs is most excited about heading into Daytona is Joey Logano. The 20 car headed into Homestead with quite a run. The 5 finishes prior to the finale were 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th then 3rd. I think the Harvicks may have awakened a new frontrunner. Look for Logano to expand on his success from the end of 2010 and even grab a couple of wins. Although I don't feel he is quite ready for a true championship run, look out in 2012.

The most disappointed driver in the Gibbs stable this December was not Hamlin, it was Kyle Busch. Besides the facts that he had the lowest average finish out of the Gibbs drivers, he never really competed for the championship in 2010. He had some great runs, including three wins, but the season was very up and down. For example, in the Chase, Busch had 3 top tens, but also had three finishes worse than 30th. Look for some new consistency from Busch in 2011. If he can combine consistency with a few wins, he could once again be a charger in the Chase.

The end of 2010 was heartbreaking for Hamlin. Hamlin only had three finishes outside the top ten in the Chase, but two of them came in the las two races, ripping the Sprint Cup from Hamlin's grasp. Many people have made much fuss over unhappiness between Hamlin and his crew chief, Mike Ford, over poor adjustments at the end of the season and some remarks he made about Jimmie Johnson. In 2011 Hamlin will come out of the gates as hard nosed and charging as ever and will come close to his eight wins in 2010. Hamlin will, however, have to focus more on Chase tracks to ensure top five finishes at the end of the season.

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Can The Dale Jr. And Kyle Busch Feud Reignite In 2011?

For years now, NASCAR has longed for some anger, discontent, envy and spite.  In short: Rivalry.  They even came out with "have at it boys" for the same reason.  The 2nd biggest sport in America that has spent the last 10 years becoming more homogenized or politically correct now wants the opposite.  What they need is a good, heated rivalry.
A few years ago, with the move of Kyle Busch from Hendrick Motorsports to make room for Dale Earnhardt Jr, many around NASCAR believed a rivalry had been born.  With Busch's front bumper laying waste to Earnhardt Jr's 88 later that year, "JR Nation" would have agreed.
Although there is no love lost between the fans of these two drivers, a true rivalry never came to fruition.  This is partly due to Jr having not been that competitive the last few years.  Now, however, both drivers desperately need a boost.
Earnhardt Jr may now have his boost, or at least Jr fans hope so, as he now has a new and proven Crew Chief.  He will also be housed in the same garage as Jimmie Johnson.  Such changes must produce at least minimal success.
Busch however is entering a new period of his career.  Although it was thought he would become the "Top Dog" at Gibbs with Stewart leaving, it seems as though he is now being eclipsed by Denny Hamlin.  As for 2010, Busch did have 3 wins, but his average finish in the last 5 races was 21st, a humbling number for Busch.  At times toward the end of the season, his frustration was palpable.
Busch does, however, have one of the greatest motivators in his corner with Joe Gibbs.  Although 2010 has been less than acceptable for Busch, rest assured he will come out fighting in 2011.  I am sure the success of his teammate Hamlin will not sit right with him and his success in 2011 would definitely create a spark in the JR. fan base.
Let's hope the two of these can bee more competitive in 2011, NASCAR has plenty to lose if they don't!

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NASCAR's Naughty And Nice From 2010

Well, Santa is making his list and as usual, there are some naughty little boys who will be getting coal this year.  Often in NASCAR there are all to many opportunities to be naughty, and every driver has been on that list at some point or another.  Who is on which list this year?  Well, I'm sure you have a few ideas of your own, but this is the list Old St. Nick faxed over to me this afternoon and these were the highlights.

Nice

• Mark Martin- Loves To Share!  Due to Mark's on-track kindness, which is a staple in NASCAR, and his willingness to share his Crew Chief, Mark is on the Nice list this year.  Little Mark will receive a new Crew Chief and a new roommate this Christmas.
• Kasey Kahne- Patient.  For his willingness to be a good boy and wait a year to drive the #5 Kasey will get a full year of free Red Bull to liven up his performance for 2011.
• Jeff Gordon- Team Player.  He was so committed to bringing the Cup back to Hendrick this year that he selflessly gave up his pit crew to the #48.  He was willing to move his stuff out of the old 24/48 garage.  For all of that he will get to once again be the youngest driver in his garage and will get a great new Crew Chief.  Gustafson is receiving a 3D decal of the front bumper of the old #3 to put in Jeff's rear view mirror for some encouragement.
• Carl Edwards- Puts Others Before Himself!  Some people are takers and some are givers.  Carl was so kind as to take damage to his own car just to give Brad Keselowski the ride of his life.  No wonder he is always smiling, he is such a giver.  For that, Carl will have his best season ever in 2011, of which I gave him a taste in the final races of 2010.

Naughty

• Kyle Busch- Does Not Play Well With Others!  He was rough with his teammates, tore up a lot of cars, and flicked off everyone while doing it, all because Joe Gibbs would not buy him the cat featured on his Toyota in his commercial.  His name is almost written in permanent ink on this list.  For his antics he will be penalized with an extra 100 lbs of steal in each car next year, which he will probably be putting in the front bumper in preparation for his spot on this list next Christmas.
• Jimmie Johnson- Will Not Share.  What a grinch!  Jimmie used to be such a good boy.  Yet again he is on this list for not sharing!  Not only will he not share the Sprint Cup trophy, but he also stole Hamlin's smile and now Happy Harvick is just Harvick.  I have no choice but to take all of Johnson's cars and for 2011 he and Knaus must use only shopping carts and used lawn mower engines.  Perhaps the others can catch up.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr- Poor Manners!  For his sailor's tongue on his radio, peeling the paint off every home that listened to it, Jr will have his mouth washed out with soap before every race by his new Crew Chief Letarte.  And for making his cousin and millions cry in July when he raced in a "pants" car and raced the pants off everyone else, he will have to make millions happy with great performances in 2011.

Merry Christmas NASCAR Nation!  May 2011 be even wilder than 2010.

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The 5 Busiest Teams In The Offseason

There are many teams that have much to accomplish in the offseason. The 2011 season holds many unknowns: what teams will be competing, who will be strong, and who will flop. These are the five I think have the most to sort out in the next 2 months.

#5. The #18 Team.  To say Busch had an up and down season in 2010 would be an understatement.  Busch had 3 wins and got into the Chase, which would make a good season for most drivers.  In the month of May alone, Busch had 2 wins and in points races had an average finish of 3rd.  However, in the final 10 races, Busch's average finish was a dismal 18th, with an average finish of 21st in the final five races.  The telling stat for Busch in the final 5 races is that his average starting position was 25th.  Something is wrong with the #18 team, and I doubt it will sit well with "Shrub" this off-season.

#4. Richard Petty Motorsports.  With drivers Ambrose and Allmendinger, whose average finishes in 2010 were 22nd and 19th respectively, Petty has the unenviable task of rebuilding a team that has been built, bought, reformed, and torn apart in the matter of a couple years.  He has lost the big sponsorship of Budweiser, and is reportedly keeping the sponsorship of Stanley and working on Best Buy.  Releasing employees, training new employees, and attempting to restructure two teams into competitors will make for a stressful off-season to say the least.

#3. The #31 Team.  Burton made the Chase in 2010, largely due to a string of good finishes in the Summer, but that is where the good news ends.  Although Burton seemed to have some strong cars during the season, victory lane always stayed out of reach.  With the arrival of the Chase, Burton's team fell apart.  Burton had one top five and one other top ten in the Chase with an average finish of 21st and an average finish of 27th in the final five races.  Burton seemed exhausted by Homestead.  Much work to do on the CAT Team for Richard Childress in order to bring them back to the success they had a couple years ago.

#2. The #11 Team.  Hamlin was very successful in 2010; he had an average finish of 13th for the season and 7th for the Chase.  There is not much work needed in the off-season, but that doesn't mean the Gibbs crew won't be busy.  Neither Hamlin nor Gibbs like second place, and they won't settle for a "so close" finish.  Look for the #11 Team to be less worried about extra wins going into the Chase, and more concerned about dominance in the last ten races.  I think they are probably studying the Knaus playbook.

#1. Hendrick Motorsports.  Obviously not the team that finished #1 in points, but definitely the 9th, 13th and 21st place finishers.  Between drivers learning to communicate with new crew chiefs, moving teams from one garage to the other, and figuring out who has which pit crew, there is much to do in the next two months.  The next issue is which personality will be dominant at the 48/88 garage?  The Champ or the most popular driver?  Good luck Mr. Hendrick, I hope it works!

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