Is Kenseth's 2012 A Replay Of Edwards In 2011?

Another Sprint Cup season for Roush Fenway Racing and again they have a couple of drivers in serious contention to win the Sprint Cup Championship.  Last year, Carl Edwards started the season strong.  He won at Las Vegas and quickly rose to the top of the Sprint Cup points standings.  This year, both Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth have had the points lead, which is currently Kenseth's.

However, soon conversations in 2011 began to focus on the fact that Carl Edwards was a man without a contract.  His contract with RFR was to end and the finish of the 2011 season, and much speculation was given to the possibility of him leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing.  For weeks reporters would ask Carl if he would be driving a orange toyota in 2012, and for weeks they would get his patented smile and a kind comment about RFR working on a contract.

The questions were soon answered as the summer began to end, and Edwards and the 99 crew were able to finish the season out with a tie for the points lead which resulted in a second place finish (due to a tie-breaker rule.)  However, Edwards did not dominate any more races and had no wins, in the Chase or otherwise, after his one early-season win at Las Vegas.  Had he won ONE more race he would have won the Championship.  Period.

Now, in 2012, rumors have been swirling around Kenseth's future.  His RFR contract is over at season's end, and many have wondered if he would leave his long-time home.  Now, this week Roush reports that defending Nationwide Series champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be replacing Kenseth at RFR in the 2013 season.  Will Kenseth be driving a Toyota in 2013?  Will he bring Ford back to Penske Racing?  We will likely know by week's end.

What we do know is that for a second year in a row, Roush has a driver who is hot and contending for a championship, yet they are unsure about their future.  Yes, Edwards did have a successful year in 2011, but few would doubt that he could have won another race had contract talks been completed prior to the 2011 season, which would have led to his first championship.  Add on top of that, Kenseth will be dealing with going to a new team, who will be his crew chief, who will be his sponsor, etc, and the likelihood that the 17 will be celebrating after Homestead becomes low.

Either Roush has the worst timing and luck in the NASCAR garage, or someone seriously needs to question their wisdom about personnel management.  Had Edwards won the 2011 championship, sponsorship and money woes would have undoubtedly been less of a strain in 2012, and he may have kept the Cup another year.

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Which Was The Best, And Worst, Owner In 2011?

As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season has drawn to a close, many people are focusing on which driver was best, or which team made the most improvements, but how do the owners, garages and operations as a whole rank?

1.  Stewart Haas Racing- It should be a surprise to nobody that SHR was the best organization in 2011.  At least not now that the season is over.  SHR won the Championship, had 6 wins, had both drivers in the top 10 in points, and owner/driver dominated the victory lanes of the Chase races, winning 5 of 10.  Of course, resting on your laurels gets you nowhere, so Tony Stewart has removed his crew chief Darian Grubb and has added Steve Addington, former crew chief of Kyle Busch and most recently Kurt Busch.  Time will tell if Stewart has made a logical or an emotional choice with this change.

2.  Roush Fenway Racing- Ahh, I'm sure owner Jack Roush and driver Carl Edwards are tired of seeing their name by the number 2, but so be it.  RFR had 5 wins, 2 cars in the top 5 in points, finished runner up for the Championship, and their average points finish was 11th.  Had Edwards grabbed a win from Stewart during the Chase, their offseason would have been much sweeter.

3.  Hendrick Motorsports-  I cannot remember back far enough to tell you how long it has been since Hendrick was not the top organization in NASCAR.  Don't get me wrong, with both a 5 time and a 4 time Champ, HMS is not weak by any measurement.  In 2011, HMS had 5 wins, 3 cars inside the top 10 in points, and averaged a points finish of just over 10th.  One has to wonder just what changes are in store at HMS this offseason after the wholesale changes after the 2010 season.

4.  Richard Childres Racing-  Many people though that this organization would capture another Cup title in 2011 after Kevin Harvicks performance last year, backed up by his late-race charging wins this year.  However, after Harvick stumbled a little early in the Chase and Bowyer, Menard and Burton missed the Chase, this group is looking to improve in 2012.  RCR had 6 wins, 1 team in the top 5 in points, and had an average points finish of 13th.

5.  Penske Racing-  It seemed as though Penske may have regained some strenth in 2011.  Although he proved inconsistent throughout the season, Kurt Busch had some dominating races early in the season, and teammate Brad  Keselowski caught on fire, figuratively, of course, during the summer to surge into the Chase.  Penske finished with 5 wins, both drivers inside the top 12, and an average finish of 8th in the points.

6.  Joe Gibbs Racing-  With Hamlin, "Shrub", and "Sliced Bread", many think this team is the most underproducing organization in NASCAR.  They definitely have the talent, but with the 20 team of Logano growing cold, Hamlin struggling, and Busch holding it together only to come apart at the seams, JGR has much offseason work to do.  JGR finished with 5 wins, 2 drivers in the top 12 in points, and average a points finish of 15th.

7.  Richard Petty Racing-  Many would have laughed if they had been told that RPM would have finished as well as they have in 2011.  Although they are not dominating, Allmendinger finished strong in many races and Ambrose claimed RPM a win.  The two averaged a finishing points position of 17th, and have much to build upon for next year.  It is unlikely, however, that these two drivers can make it into the Chase without more consistent good finishes.

8.  Team Red Bull-  Although their existence is in doubt for the 2012 season, they were not the worst team in 2011, largely due to the performance of exiting driver Kasey Kahne.  Had they only had Brian Vickers on track to hit as many cars as he could, they would not have had their 1 win and a car finishing inside the top 15 in points.  The two teams averaged a final points position of 20th.

9.  Michael Waltrip Racing-  Already making big changes for 2012 by adding Clint Bowyer, removing Reutimann, and making other staff changes, MWR is need of improvement for next season.  Not only did they not win any races, but had they not had some strong finished in the Chase they would have been mostly invisible for the season.  MWR had one driver in the top 20 and averaged a final points position of 23rd.

10.  Earnhardt Ganassi Racing-  After last years performance at the premier races of Daytona and Indianapolis, few would have thought that EGR would have had such a dissapointing year in 2011.  Both of the drivers are coming back next year, so look for changes to take place both in the pit box and in the garage if EGR hopes to improve in 2012.  EGR had no drivers in the top 20 in points, and they averaged a final points position of 24th.

The obvious honorable mentions for this list would have to be for both Wood Brothers Racing and Furniture Row Racing.  Trevor Bayne and Regan Smith snagged huge wins for these two small operations.

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What Does Carl Edwards Want?

Each Summer NASCAR begins their “Silly Season” talk, filled with suspicions, rumors, and plots about who will change teams, who will reorganize, and who will be left out of the musical chairs game that is the Sprint Cup Garage. The 2011 season, of course, is no different. While I maintain that the biggest name to land for next year is Danica Patrick, Carl Edwards is, by far, the most chased driver in the Cup garage.

Edwards’ contract with Jack Roush and Roush Fenway Racing is over at the end of the 2011 season, and as he has yet to sign a new contract with RFR, suspicions and rumors are flying that he will be leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing. Gibbs is the strongest team with an extra seat available to offer, so the possibility makes some sense, but would the move be anything more than a lateral move?

Although JGR has had a championship contender and multiple wins over the past few years, they have not necessarily left RFR behind. Both teams are among the top tier in NASCAR.

So then one would have to wonder what Edwards is looking for.

If it is more money, the addition of Ford in the effort with RFR to keep Edwards should help. Then again, Toyota would likely give just as much to get Edwards whose selling ability is as good as or better than that of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano combined. So if both are willing to meet what Edwards is looking for in pay, what else is there?

Perhaps Edwards is looking for a fresh start. He has not slowed on the track, but his wins the past few years have slowed from ’05, ’07, and ’08. From 2005-2008 he had 17 wins in spite of being shut out in 2006. However from 2009 to now he has only 3. Yes, the new Ford engines have given him some boost this year, but that has yet to translate into victory lane appearances.

With the current level of parity in NASCAR’s premier league, a move from one top tier team to another is not likely going to make a big difference in equipment and manpower. Even Hendrick Motorsports, once seen as head and shoulders about the other teams, has been brought back to the pack. So whatever Edwards basis his opinion on will have to give him peace of mind that the owner will not only give Edwards plenty of people, but the right people. He will have to feel that the owner is committed to putting him not just in victory lane, but at the head of the table in November at the awards ceremony.

Either way, I can only say one thing to him… Carl, while you’re thinking about this future altering decision….remember to turn left…

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #3- Roush Fenway Racing

Roush Fenway Racing finished the 2010 season with a bang.  This team started 2010 with 19 top-10s in the first 10 races then slid quickly with only 9 top-10s in the second 10 races.  As the confusion wore off of the new Ford engine, however, RFR quickly came around and finished with 17 top-10s in the Chase, with 8 of those being top-5s and 3 being wins.

For David Ragan, 2011 has a fork in the road, one he will reach around July or August.  In 2010, Ragan had 15 finishes between 11th and 20th, yet only 3 in the top 10.  Ragan did have more consistent runs down the stretch, but not quite the caliber that Jack Roush will want from a long term investment.  If Ragan does not start breaking into the top ten and come close to qualifying for the Chase, he will be looking for a new ride come September.

Greg Biffle had a 2010 that was similar to the rest of his career: great finishes and horrible finishes.  In the final 20 races, Biffle finished 7 times in the top 5; and also finished 5 times 30th or worse.  So indicative of his hard driving style, of his 9 top 15 finishes in those 20 races, 7 were top 5's.  If Biffle could find some consistency in 2011 he could mount a championship run, but don't expect it.  Don't get me wrong, Biffle is a great driver, arguably one of the hardest chargers in the garage, but consistency just isn't his thing.

Speaking of consistency, Kenseth could be looking at another '03-like year in 2011.  His finishes of 2010 show a definite return of consistency, with 24 finishes in the top 15.  In fact, in the last 20 races, Kenseth finished outside the top 20 only twice.  However, a consistent year like '03 sadly will not achieve the same success in 2011 due to a need for dominance in the Chase, not just consistency.

No driver in the RFR stable is more ready to start 2011 than Carl Edwards.  After finishing the year with back to back wins, Edwards is eager for the opportunity to continue the streak.  2010 was a great year for Edwards, held back only by some miscues in the Chase and a poor start to the Summer.  If Edwards can start 2011 where he left 2010 and have a consistent year, he may be the best driver to compete with Jimmie Johnson next Fall, especially if he can get streaky.  His pair of wins in 2010 were the 5th time in his career that he had back to back wins.

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Look Out For Roush Fenway In 2011!

I am by no means a Roush Fenway Racing fan, but they may just be the team to beat come February. Anyone reading this may think I have been drinking, but hear me out.

I agree, 2010 has been dismal for RFR: only 4 wins this year and 0 prior to August. Only 2 RFR drivers won: Bifle and Edwards. Many times this year, they all looked like they were down 10 hp or something would go wrong late in the race. Nothing was clicking. Crew chief changes and angry teammates were the norm.

However, the final 3 races show some definite promise. The average finish for all four drivers over the final 3 races was 9.25. Out of 12 finishes, only 3 were outside the top 10. The new success was across the board. That spells momentum for RFR going into 2011.

Whether it's figuring out the newest Ford engine, team configurations starting to mesh, or just plain luck, look out for RFR teams in February.

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