What Have We Learned From 2013?

Close the book.  Another year in the history of NASCAR has come to a close.  All of the preparation of the garage for the new Gen 6, the plate races, the summer stretch, and the Chase - over.  No more "Five Time", Jimmie Johnson now has 6 in his attempt for the most cups.

With everything over and written down, just what have we learned this season?  What bits of wisdom has 2013 imparted to us to clarify what is coming in 2014 and beyond?

First, we have re-learned that Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are nowhere near finished dominating the sport.  It is utterly amazing how much their combination is made for the Sprint Cup setup and would not work without one of the two.  Johnson has a 1 win to every 6.6 race ratio in Sprint Cup, an unbelievable fact when placed beside his 1 win to 93 race ratio in the Nationwide Series.

Many people say that the 48's success lies solely with Chad Knaus or is only because of Hendrick money.  Those people should think about the 3 races Johnson drove in Hendrick cars without Knaus with an average finish of 31st.  They should also consider that in 35 Sprint Cup races without Jimmie Johnson, Knaus has zero wins, zero top 5's, and only 1 top 10 with an average finish of 24th.

No, Knaus, Johnson, and Hendrick make a mixture precision, determination and, yes, money, that will be successful as long as the three are combined.  Will there be a 7th championship?  Probably.  Will they continue forever?  Nothing lasts forever, but for now there is no end in sight, so get used to it.

Second, we learned that the fall from dominance and competitiveness is a steep one.  Last year we had a young and exciting new champion who looked like he would carry his success forward with a new make, but Brad Keselowski's change from Dodge to Ford proved anything but successful.  Penske Racing did not change crews, kept the same crew chief, the same driver, and merely changed engines and decals.  Still, the blue deuce ended up 14th at the end of the season and was not able to compete in the Chase to defend their championship.

Yes, Keselowski still had a win, and yes he led laps, but after the trouble began in mid spring after a penalty for questionable parts sidelined his crew chief, they could not rebound.  They began the season with 4 straight top 5's, then had a 10 race run in the spring that saw them outside the top 20 for 6 races and aggravation became disappointment when his new teammate made the Chase and he did not.

Finally, we learned that the more things change the more they stay the same.  NASCAR has spent years and dollars changing the image of the sport from the "if you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin", brawling blue collar sport of the 50's, 60's and 70's.  Yet what did we get this year?  "Is your arm starting to hurt?....Itch it..."  And, "Good job man, hopefully we'll get something out of that."  For any readers who don't get the reference, these were radio transmissions from the Richmond race where drivers, crews, and owners reportedly conspired to affect the points so particular drivers could make the Chase.

With these three things in mind, an outlook on 2014 would have to conclude that Johnson will be strong, Keselowski will be looking to make a point, and NASCAR drivers and owners will continue to do anything they think they can get away with to win.  All three of these probabilities should make for another great season.

How many days until Daytona?

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Dale Jr's Best Start To A Season...

Prior to the start of the 2013 season, 2004 and 2008 stood out as the best seasons for Dale Jr. out of the gate.  Both seasons were important from different standpoints for Junior: 2004 was Junior's first real title challenge and 2008 was Dale Jr.'s first season with Rick Hendrick.

In '04, Junior started the season with wins at Daytona and Atlanta, a 5th place finish at Rockingham, and a 10th place finish at Darlington.  Although some may say Dale Jr. was better at being aggressive in his earlier seasons, he definitely wasn't as good at taking care of his equipment, which led to a few dissappointing finishes early and late in the season.

All in all, 2004 was a great year for Junior, but had he been able to finish the season the way he started we may all have been calling him a former champion.  His late season finishes of 33rd at Martinsville and Atlanta effectively removed him from the championship hunt.  Even a Phoenix win just before the end of the season couldn't bring him back.

With the 2004 season ending in "What might have been.." Dale Jr. lost his crew chief, Tony Eury Sr., to a "promotion" and began working with his cousing Tony Eury Jr.  Fifteen of Junior's nineteen Sprint Cup wins came with Tony Eury Sr., along with two Nationwide Series Championships.  Even though the '04 season began with promise, iit ended in a change that didn't go as well as many hoped.

The 2008 season, as in '04, began strong, with three top 5's and a top 10 finish.  Everyone was expecting Dale Jr. to show what he could do now that he was finally in Hendrick race cars and away from his stepmother.  The fan fare didn't last long, though, as frustration between he and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. grew from inconsistent finishes which gave way to poor finishes nearing season's end. 

Again, Dale Jr. was left frustrated and confused in the off season.  Soon after, he and cousin crew chief were separated again, and Junior began a long, cold era of his career.

This year, Dale Jr. has started out with 5 straight top 10 finishes, including 3 top 5's.  His average finish so far is 4.4, worlds better than any other season.  He has 47 laps led so far, 5 less than his season total for 2011, a season which he finished 7th in points. 

Dale Jr. is also the current point leader, a spot he has only held in 2 other seasons: 2004 and last year.  Only time will tell, however, if he can hold that spot nearing season's end.

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Chase 2012: 'Outwit', 'Outplay', or 'Outlast'?

With this season's up and down nature, engine's blowing, and no clear dominator, this year's Chase could be an exercise in 'Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast'.  Although there is always a possibility of someone getting on a hot streak as Tony Stewart did late in last year's Chase, the field seems very level for those who are definitely in the Chase.

Each of the past several weeks there has been one or more of this year's contenders in trouble.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. wrecked in practice, in a race, and tore up a transmission.  Johnson never seriously contended at the Glen, then blew his engine within sight of victory lane at Michigan.  Kenseth or his team, or both, are apparently looking forward to next season.  And Keselowski is now following the Hendrick cars around drooling over their 'rear ends'.  Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

The way things are shaping up, the Chase is possibly going to be a case of who stays out of trouble, dodge's wrecks, steals one with stragegy, and keeps their engines running coming out ahead of the other contenders.  With only 10 races in the Chase, one DNF can easily end a driver's chance at the Sprint Cup, especially if there are one or two drivers who are cautious and lucky enough to stay 'clean' throughout the Chase.

One thing is for sure, the race to the Chase for those contending for the two wildcard slots will come down to outwit or outplay.  Should anyone of the drivers with one win snag another victory, it could be all they need, because none of those drivers look like they could run off a string of 2 or three wins right now.

As for how the Chase has historically played out, there have been a mixture of three plots.  In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2010, the Champion would win none or one race in the Chase, and effectively 'Outlast' the field.  In each of those years, a driver other than the eventual champ would win 2 or more races in the Chase, but one or more poor performances put them in a hole too deep to win.  In 2004, in fact, Jimmie Johnson had 4 Chase wins, but could only manage to climb back to second by season's end. 

In 2007, 2009, and 2011 the Champion 'Outplayed' the field.  In each of those years the eventual winner would snag at least 4 Chase races and simply dominate the competition to the point that sheer speed won out.  And in 2008 the Championship was won by a combination of 'Outwit', 'Outlast' and 'Outplay'.  In that year, three drivers had multiple Chase wins, and two had three wins in what ended up as a virtual slugfest to the finish.  Although Carl Edwards won 3 of the final 4 races, the points Johnson had amassed in his 3 wins gave him the cushion to keep Edwards at bay for the final races.

One driver you will hear commentators say does not have the ability to hit a hot streak during the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr.  His best showing in the Chase races was in 2004 where he won 2 races in the final 10.  The most promising news for the 88 crew is that his performance in the 1.5 mile tracks has been solid this year, which could translate into some success in the fall.

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What You Missed In Daytona

After a few years of not attending a race and over a year of sharing my rants and raves here on this blog, I returned to Daytona this past weekend for the Coke Zero 400.  For weeks, I had readied everything with anticipation of a great weekend and up-close NASCAR, and Daytona did not disappoint.

First of all, the weather was beautiful.  Yes, Florida is hot in July, but there was a decent breeze for most of the afternoon that made tailgating a blast.  I have been to a Daytona race at which a few people were injured by a lightning strike, and a Daytona race that left most people sunburned and dehydrated.  This weekend was about as good as Florida can be in July.

As we have never really done hard core tailgating at Daytona, we had planned to eat at a local restaurant prior to entering the track.  Instead, we parked next to two Firefighters from Moultrie, GA, and a retired Army veteran and his wife from the Tampa, FL area.  They made certain to show my wife and I, and our two friends, exactly how tailgating is done NASCAR style.  They had grilled burgers, hotdogs, bratwurst, and corn, along with tents, chairs, radio, etc.  The most important thing they had were welcoming attitudes and plenty of conversation.  Since me and my friend are Firefighters, we had plenty to discus with the other Firefighters and had an awesome time.

I rambled on about all that to say this: NASCAR fans are amazing.  Whether you are a Junior fan or cheer for a Busch brother, they are willing to share their food and time with you.  If you have never tailgated NASCAR style, you should give it a try!

Also, I have shared on multiple posts about how much can be learned or experienced by following NASCAR and NASCAR personalities on Twitter.  This weekend I was able to join a "TweetUp", a meeting at the track of people who follow NASCAR on Twitter, all the way up to those who write about NASCAR in print and online media.  As there are often visitors, both drivers and otherwise, I was eager to see who would show.  The coordinator of the meetings, Jeff Gluck (motorsports editor at SBNation.com), had said there would be a big guest, and he did not lie.  A few minutes into a question and answer session with some Daytona administration personnel, in walks Train, who were scheduled to sing a prerace concert.  A few minutes later, Landon Cassill, driver of the #83 Burger King car, walks up right beside me to watch.  All because I follow some NASCAR people on Twitter.

NASCAR is a great sport folks, but NASCAR Nation totally rocks.  If you haven't experienced all of it, you should!  And for those of you who make it what it is, I thank you for another great experience!

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Is Kenseth's 2012 A Replay Of Edwards In 2011?

Another Sprint Cup season for Roush Fenway Racing and again they have a couple of drivers in serious contention to win the Sprint Cup Championship.  Last year, Carl Edwards started the season strong.  He won at Las Vegas and quickly rose to the top of the Sprint Cup points standings.  This year, both Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth have had the points lead, which is currently Kenseth's.

However, soon conversations in 2011 began to focus on the fact that Carl Edwards was a man without a contract.  His contract with RFR was to end and the finish of the 2011 season, and much speculation was given to the possibility of him leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing.  For weeks reporters would ask Carl if he would be driving a orange toyota in 2012, and for weeks they would get his patented smile and a kind comment about RFR working on a contract.

The questions were soon answered as the summer began to end, and Edwards and the 99 crew were able to finish the season out with a tie for the points lead which resulted in a second place finish (due to a tie-breaker rule.)  However, Edwards did not dominate any more races and had no wins, in the Chase or otherwise, after his one early-season win at Las Vegas.  Had he won ONE more race he would have won the Championship.  Period.

Now, in 2012, rumors have been swirling around Kenseth's future.  His RFR contract is over at season's end, and many have wondered if he would leave his long-time home.  Now, this week Roush reports that defending Nationwide Series champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be replacing Kenseth at RFR in the 2013 season.  Will Kenseth be driving a Toyota in 2013?  Will he bring Ford back to Penske Racing?  We will likely know by week's end.

What we do know is that for a second year in a row, Roush has a driver who is hot and contending for a championship, yet they are unsure about their future.  Yes, Edwards did have a successful year in 2011, but few would doubt that he could have won another race had contract talks been completed prior to the 2011 season, which would have led to his first championship.  Add on top of that, Kenseth will be dealing with going to a new team, who will be his crew chief, who will be his sponsor, etc, and the likelihood that the 17 will be celebrating after Homestead becomes low.

Either Roush has the worst timing and luck in the NASCAR garage, or someone seriously needs to question their wisdom about personnel management.  Had Edwards won the 2011 championship, sponsorship and money woes would have undoubtedly been less of a strain in 2012, and he may have kept the Cup another year.

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Excited, Kind, And Snide: Reactions To Junior's Michigan Win

It is always funny to me to sit back and watch the reactions after each race.  Depending on who wins and how the win occurs you will have any number of reactions from drivers, TV personalities, fans and writers.  Whether its Jimmie Johnson winning after dominating all day or David Reutimann snagging a lucky win, there are always people who will congratulate and those that will attempt to downplay the event.

This Sunday, of course, is no different.  As NASCAR's most liked driver was using up the ample amount of rubber left on his tires on the front stretch, there were all sorts of reactions taking place.  Announcers and NASCAR officials were glad, if not relieved, that the story line had ended in a way that will benefit the sport.  Drivers, for the most part, were congratulatory of a competitor who has been working hard for a win.  And fans were going crazy in the stands, infield, and at home.

Yet, at the same time, some were not so happy.  One particular driver felt the need to remind everyone that the next day was still a Monday and that God Himself had not spoken.  Tony Stewart, probably tired from racing for a few hours, was obviously short (pun intended) with reporters after the race.  His sentiment was that just because everyone wanted a win for Dale Jr. did not mean that he and the other drivers had to make it easy for him.  Good point, Tony, and one that I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would agree with.  To my knowledge, he has never asked Mr. Stewart to pull over and allow a pass.  Not only that, aside from getting around Dale Jr. on a restart during Sunday's race, Stewart did not have much opportunity to see the front of Dale Jr.'s car.  Perhaps he just enjoyed the paint scheme on the rear bumper.

Stewart was not the only person who was less than impressed with the win.  Many fans, and writers, hate the attention that Earnhardt Jr. gets, how TV analysts always mention him, and how devoted his fans are.  They see him as overrated and only in the sport because of his late father, 7 time Champ, Dale Earnhardt.  Are they right?  Not if you look at facts and numbers, but they are taking a purely emotional view, as are those that believe Dale Jr. can do no wrong.

A particular writer, Mr. Norris McDonald, a blogger for Wheels.ca whose posts appear on the Toronto Star website, is particularly unimpressed with Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He as much as said in his latest NASCAR piece, "Was Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Win A Fluke?", that a monkey could have driven better than Junior in the past four years and that perhaps the only way to explain Earnhardt's win on Sunday is to call it a fluke.  Was it a fluke: an accident, a break, a stroke of luck or a coincidence?  Twelve top 10's and six top 5 finishes in 15 races...  Make your own decision.

Either way, Earnhardt Jr. will be taking one less question this week.

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Letarte Helping Dale Jr., From Start To Finish

With many people questioning the move by Steve Letarte, Crew Chief for the #88 Chevy driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr., late in Sunday's race at Pocono Raceway to take fuel rather than gamble for a win, I just thought I would underscore some reasons Letarte is making the right decisions for the #88 driver.  Although mistakes are made on a weekly basis by every, yes, every team, the overall direction of Letarte's team is in the right direction.  In fact, some issues Earnhardt has had for several years have been fairly well solved.

For one, Junior has had an issue with qualifying for quite some time.  I don't think it is totally because he has not had good setups, and I know it is not for lack of power.   When he began driving for Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt Jr. had a average starting position of 10.3, the best season average of his career.  However, after the one win that year (at Michigan, his last win, 4 years ago this week) finishes began to taper off, finishing outside the lead lap in five of the ten Chase races. 

After Earnhardt's confidence in himself and the #88 team began to go away, so did his qualifying attempts.  Over the next three years his starting average was 22.2, 19.0, and last year 19.6, which were out of character for Dale Jr., whose career average is 16.4.  This year, Dale Jr. has put up good qualifying numbers almost every week.  In fact, he has only two starts outside the top 20.  Compare that to last year when, in the first 14 races, he had only three starts inside the top 20. 

I thoroughly believe that the primary reason for the change in qualifying success has been confidence.  Confidence that his grip will hold when entering a corner at 160 mph, confidence that he has a crew chief that has listened to his feedback and adjusted accordingly, and confidence that if he gives his 100%, so will his team.

That confidence is the main reason I think Letarte chose to pit and take fuel in a late race caution on Sunday.  Dale Jr. himself pointed out to Letarte that he would not be forgiven if the #88 car ran out of fuel.  In later interviews, Earnhardt Jr. alluded to the fact that running out of gas would have ruined his confidence, the team's focus, and the upward direction of the #88 team as a whole.   I agree.

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I Have My Tickets, How About You??

With every NASCAR season their is plenty of complaints to go around.  Some years there are complaints about one make having an advantage over another, some years there are complaints about too much domination by one team.  In 2012 there have been no shortage of complaints, by commentators, analysts, drivers, and especially fans.

People have been complaining about how long the races are, how long the season is, how uncompetitive the races have been and about knowing just what brought out the debris cautions.  One definitely concerning complaint has been where are all the fans...  I haven't seen a race this year and thought, "Wow, how did they pack all those people in there." 

Well, NASCAR fans, there is one certain way to get over the complaining about everything NASCAR: get to the track!  Yes, I said go to a race!  Nothing makes me less concerned about how crooked the cars look going down the straightaway than actually trying to see them because they are going so fast.  The best way for me to forget about how much I can't stand a particular NASCAR on air personality is to not be able to hear anything but the roar of 43 cars (at the beginning of the race, obviously) flying past me.  And the only way to care less about the semantics of the sport, how to grow the viewing audience, and what tracks need less races, is to remember first hand exactly why you fell in love with the sport.

Don't get me wrong, if you have read any of my other posts you know I love to tell my opinion about every aspect of the sport.  It just seems to me that there are too many fans today that would rather complain about NASCAR than brag about it.  Has anything changed?  Yes, of course things have, but there are still 43 drivers giving it everything while riding 200 mph a foot from a concrete wall.  There are still pit crews dodging cars driving 45 - 55 mph down pit road.  And no matter how much some of you bemoan the sport, you still get on the edge of your seat when your driver is slinging it 3 wide on a restart.

Yes, NASCAR needs to hear every point of view and should continue to find ways to keep the fans happy, but the rest of us need to take a step back and remember why we love the sport: the screaming fans, the smell of burning rubber, the car coming out of turn 4 with the right rear sliding out from under it.  I, for one, am ready for my reminder.

I will be going to the July race at Daytona International Speedway, which will be my first race in over 4 years.  It has been a long cold winter, indeed.  I will try to listen out for anyone complaining about the new points system during the race, not likely to hear them though.

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Dale Jr. Reaches New Level Of Consistency

All the speculators thought this weekend was the week.  Hendrick was to get their 200th win and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was to break his losing streak and make all of Junior Nation happy once again.  Sometimes things just don't work out the way you plan.  However, Dale Jr. can be thrilled with his 9th place finish for another reason!

Dale Earnhardt Jr's top 10 finish at Talladega marked his 8th in the first 10 races of this season which is the first time he has ever surpassed 7 top 10's to begin a season.  Junior has reached 7/10 three other times (2003, 2004, and 2008). 

An 80% top ten mark to start the NASCAR season has been reached 47 times in the Cup Era (since 1975), and has been accomplished by that year's champion 13 times out of 36 years.  However, that has not been accomplished since NASCAR went to the Chase format.  In fact, the last time it happened was one year prior when Matt Kenseth won the championship with only 1 win.

Dale Earnhardt started the season with 8 top tens in 7 of his seasons, including 6 championship years.  The next driver on the list was Darrell Waltrip, who made that mark 6 times, including twice of those being 9 top 10's out of 10 races.  Out of the other NASCAR greats, Terry Labonte did it 5 times, Jeff Gordon 3, Bobby Allison 3, Cale Yarborough 2, and Richard Petty 2 times.

Some notable drivers not on that list were Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and other current top drivers.  The best knowledge to take away from that fact is that these racers have been excellent in the past 8 years at turning it on from the summer on, especially during the Chase.  This has been an issue for Junior in the past as even though he has won at some Chase races, such as Talladega and Phoenix, he has not been able to put together 10 great races at the end of the season as he has now at the beginning.

In the mean time, Earnhardt Jr. and the 88 team as a whole are enjoying a building of momentum including 6 straight top ten finishes.  They are listed as the best team over the past 6 races, Junior has one of the highest average driver ratings he has had in his career, and people are looking for them to win week in and week out.  The most important thing driver 88 can do now is prove those people right...

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Danica Looking For Restrictor Plate Redemption

Danica Patrick's first full time season in NASCAR's Nationwide Series started out with a bang.  Literally!  Bang! Right into the wall.  She won the pole for the season opener at Daytona International Speedway and, considering her short restrictor plate resume, many people were optimistic that she could finish very high.  Everything was in place for her to become the story of the year in NASCAR.

Bang!

After leading some laps and trying to stay out of trouble she received an ill-timed, although well intentioned, push from her teammate, rookie driver of the 88, Cole Whitt.  Her damage from the turn 3 wall ended her day and put a cloud over her start to her full time NASCAR career.

Although there are many people who like Danica, many of them female fans and drooling males, there are droves who think she is overrated and not deserving of such a high profile opportunity in NASCAR, let alone all of the attention.  The never ending "Danica Watch" during the Daytona races by the sportscasters was enough to drive some detractors mad.  However, I have maintained that Patrick does have some strong tracks to make some statements at this year (nope, I'm not a female fan, and not drooling...currently).

Restrictor plate tracks are definitely a place I feel Danica can do surprisingly well.  In her two Daytona races last year she averaged a 12th place finish and even led 13 laps in the summer race.  Although many were concerned with how she would react to the close quarters racing with bumps and shoves a plenty, Patrick has adapted fairly well to NASCARS high speed tracks.  Considering how she has adapted at Daytona, February's race not withstanding, one should think she would do well at Talladega, where handling is even less of a factor and the trioval area is much easier to navigate.

One thing is for certain, a good finish this week at Talladega would help Patrick forget the beginning of this 2012 season and possibly in, if not close to, a top 10 spot in the Nationwide standings.  No doubt, she should be much closer to the top 5, which is where her teammate, Cole Whitt is (6th).  Points aside, I would love to see her finish better simply to hear those that can't stand her complain about her coverage!

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Appeal Turns Hendrick Week From Bad To Good

Although prospects for Hendrick Motorsports is always good at Bristol Motor Speedway, especially with 5 time Bristol winner, Jeff Gordon, Hendrick luck went downhill as the race went along last weekend.  First, early in the race, Kasey Kahne was knocked out of contention in a pile up in the top ten.  Then later in the race, Gordon's left rear tire was cut down after minor contact from Dale Earnhardt Jr., a teammate, no less.  Then to top things off, as Dale Jr. was running at the back of the top 5 and looking for a possible top 3, the 88 team received a speeding violation which dropped them to a 15th place finish for the day.

Johnson, the only Hendrick car to finish in the top 10 (9th), salvaged his day after early damage from the Kahne wreck by slowly taking what he could get.  After a few weeks of fines, points taken away, crew chief suspension and on track troubles, Johnson was probably glad to post a top 10 and go home.  With one more opportunity for appeal to the judgement NASCAR handed down for their Daytona violation, off track preparation to get the 48 back on track to compete for a 6th Sprint Cup was, no doubt, in high gear.

Well, thanks to the appeal judgement by John Middlebrook, Johnson will not have to go 6 races without crew chief Chad Knaus.  Although he and car chief Ron Malec will face a probationary period, their track privileges will remain in tact for now.  Johnson will also regain the 25 championship points that were taken after Daytona, which, along with his 9th place finish on Sunday, will bring him to 12th in the early season standings. 

Although a lack of wins for the Hendrick stable just four races into the 2012 season is hardly a reason for concern, with much invested over the off season into each of the teams, some dividends are probably expected soon.  Most people probably did not expect the new 5 team of Kahne and Francis to exit the gate with wins, but becoming the weekly appointment for the first caution flag has to be aggravating.  Also, some results from the 24, which started 2011 hot, and the 88 that many people feel is getting close, will be expected soon, especially with Martinsville and Texas just around the corner.

For now, the Hendrick family will have to be happy knowing that everyone will be packing to go to California for this weekend.

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Great Restarts, For Vegas And Biffle

The 2012 Kobalt Tools 400 in Las Vegas this weekend had some great racing.  Although there was not as much side by side racing in Vegas as there may have been in the past, the competitive restarts were enough to make up for it.  Seeing the Sprint Cup drivers slinging it three wide at the start finish line and having cars rubbing bumpers and fenders is the best way to see drivers easing into their 2012 season.

No, there were no jet driers exploding in flames, and the only fuel mileage issue was when Brad Keselowski had fuel pump issues after stretching his fuel.  I, for one, am glad not to see jet driers.  Although as a firefighter I did enjoy watching the flames at Daytona, whilst screaming "Put foam on it!!" while the fire crew extinguished the flames slowly, I think we have all seen enough rain delayed races to hold us until at least Darlington.  They did move it back to Labor Day weekend right??  No?  Well they should!!

This weekends race saw two drivers coming back from a rough 2012 start.  Tony Stewart, the winner of this weeks race, had a horrible week last week with a engineering issue relegating him to a 22nd place finish at Phoenix, and started the season with two finishes outside the top 15.  Although many people felt Stewart would cool off a bit, at least in the near term, with a crew chief change (he replaced Darian Grubb with Steve Addington in the offseason), two bad finishes to start the season after winning 3 of the final 4 races of 2011 would have been though a stretch.  Stewart dominated the end of Sunday's race at Las Vegas, however, so he and Addington may be warming up quicker than most thought.

Jimmie Johnson, after wrecking on the second lap of the Daytona 500 and finishing 42nd, found out a week later that he would probably be without his crew chief, Chad Knaus, for 6 races and down 25 more points to the field of Sprint Cup teams vying for this years Chase.  He did, however, get a great 4th place finish at Phoenix, but during final practice at Las Vegas, Johnson hit the wall and began warming up his backup car to start at the rear on Sunday.  Before half way through the 400 mile race, the 48 had made its way to the front and at the end of the race was just shy of Stewarts pace to the finish line. 

Probably the best restart going on in NASCAR at the moment is the restart occurring in the #16 garage.  Although Biffle is always a possible front runner on any given weekend, his end to the 2011 season was weak to say the least.  His 2011 season in general was out of character for the Vancouver, WA driver, as he posted only 3 top 5 finishes for the year and no wins.  During the offseason, no team has turned around as well as the RFR #16 bunch.  Although they have not posted a win in the first three races, they have already tied their top 5 mark from 2012 with 3, scoring a 3rd place finish in each race.  Biffle has also not started outside the top 10, which is great for a driver who is known for driving harder when he can see the leader.

Whatever the 3M RFR team is doing, it is working!

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Will Earnhardt Jr. And Letarte's 2012 Achilles Return?

One day after finishing the first ever nightime Daytona 500, after racing all night, fire balls and all, NASCAR's Sprint Cup teams are loading up the cars to start the "rest of the season."  As the Daytona 500 is NASCAR's "Super Bowl", it is different than the rest of the season and often produces winners that may stumble during the rest of the early season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and his crew chief Steve Letarte begain their first season last February with a pole award for the Daytona 500 and if their primary car had not been wrecked would have had a good 500 finish to go along with it.  They did not start the next several races as well, however.  Over the next 9 races, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would start in the top 20 only once.  In fact, over those 9 races, team 88 would average a starting spot of 26th.

During that time span, Earnhardt and Letarte would hone their communication skills.  Letarte would better learn how Earnhardt wanted his cars to handle, and Earnhardt would learn what information Letarte would need to make the cars better.  The two would continuously better the car throughout the races and made some good finishes.  However, they were constantly begining well behind the leaders and having to work hard to get those finishes.

By late season, the 88 team had made good progress on starting positions, averaging a 14th place start over the final 10 races of the season.  Although they did not get the finishes they hoped for during the Chase, the 88 team was definitely unloading better cars that were better prepared for the race weakend.

The question the 88 fans must be asking themselves heading into this Phoenix weekend is will team "Earntarte" pick up where they left off or will they have to rebuild their foundation.  If Junior and Letarte can come out this weekend and next with cars that are fast from the hauler and comfortable for the driver, team 88 could get a great start on the 2012 season.

Yes Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a great Daytona 500, and although many Junior fans can't wait for the next plate track for the 88 to flex its muscle, the meat of the season lies in the 1 mile and the 1.5 mile tracks and there is where the path to competing for a championship lies.  We watched the 88 driver make soem good moves in the final laps of Daytona, but lets see what he has up his sleeves for the rest of the season. 

A couple weeks ago during media days Dale Jr. said he was eager to get to the non-restrictor plate tracks to see where they are as a team.  Well, here we are.  Bring it.

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Dale Jr. Lone Hendrick Horse In First Gatorade Duel

Of and on, during the Budweiser Shootout Saturday night and during Daytona 500 qualifying, you could hear announcers and commentators talk about how the racing for this years 500 will be different: a combination of pack and tandem racing.  Many have suggested that the change could benefit some of the more traditional restrictor plate racers, such as Dale Earnhardt Jr. who had much early career success at restrictor plate tracks.

Junior may be glad to see the change for Sunday's race, but he is likely to be relieved with the change going into Thursday's duel qualifying.  Out of the four Hendrick Motorsports cars preparing for the Daytona 500, Earnhardt Jr. is the only one that will be in the early qualifying race.  As the duel lineups are set by qualifying, odds in the early race and evens in the late race, Earnhardt entered the early lineup with a 3rd place qualifying effort.  The other Hendrick cars, Gordon 6th, Johnson 12th, and Hendrick newcomer Kahne 24th, will all be in the later duel.

One other plus this year is that Junior qualified so well.  Although Earnhardt Jr has qualified well for the Daytona 500 before (he has one pole), the stout showing by the teams with Ford engines had most people feeling as though the Fords had the pole locked up.  Apparently, the changing winds that had been pushing the cars around all afternoon worked somewhat to Earnhardt's advantage, because coming through turn 3 and 4 he began to pick up steam and rose from 5th to almost 2nd on the speed tracker.  Also I am sure Earnhardts knowledge and experience at the track helped him find a little speed.

Whether Earnhardt Jr wins the Daytona 500 or another more traditional pack racer like Gordon, it is safe to say that after the showing on Saturday night that the product of NASCAR's changes will be a wild finish.  No doubt there will be pack racing, and like it or leave it there will be small bursts of tandem racing.  I guess its a little of each and a whole lot of speed.  If you don't love Daytona, you don't love racing.

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Which Way To Daytona??

Do you remember a certain Daytona 500 moment as your favorite?  Many people point towards such legendary moments as the fight in the grass, Dale Earnhardt's win in '98, and Darrell Waltrip's 500 win as some of their most memorable moments in the sport.  My personal Daytona 500 memory that spurred me from just a fan to a fanatic was the 1997 Daytona 500 finish.  No, not because of the 1-2-3 Hendrick Motorsports finish with Jeff Gordon winning.  At that time I couldn't stand the 24.  I loved that ending because after the big wreck that took Dale Earnhardt out of contention, sending him down the racetrack on his hood, he still had the grit to get back in the car and drive it to the finish line.

The Daytona 500 is a true roller coaster of emotions for everyone from fan to tire changer to driver.  You look forward to the race for weeks, have the build up of speedweeks, and by the time the race is over you have either dug your nails into the La-Z-Boy, yelled at the television, or totally ran your spouse out of the room.  It is a drug that we cannot do without but so long, and I need a fix.

The 2012 Daytona 500 is even more anticipated due to several reasons.  For one, we have just come off the closest points finish in NASCAR history which ended a crazy 2011 Chase to the Cup.  We are all eager to see who comes out fast, who sputters, and who downright flops.  Second, with the late Superbowl date this year, the beginning of the NASCAR season is a week late.  I know, most of you did not know we had any two sport stars driving this year, but apparently NASCAR drivers are among the few in the United States that can still afford an NFL ticket, so their presence, and money, was needed elsewhere.

For blogger, opinion-givers, Monday morning crew chiefs, and the rest, there is only so much prognosticating one can do for 3 months.  I have heard enough, and written enough (read for yourself), about Kurt Busch changing teams, all the crew chief swaps, and whether or not Dale Jr will win this year.  Lets see some green flags already!  Now don't get me wrong!  I am a NASCAR fan and as such love to make my opinion known, and will probably not slow down in doing so.  But I am more than eager to be glued to the television or standing in my seat at a racetrack.

So as you prepare for the coming week or so of speeding cars, NASCAR rule changes, grumbling about restrictor plates and the rest, just think back over the past two months and be glad that finally, yes finally, it is time for some racing!

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Is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Getting Too Old To Compete?

Ok, it is just over 3 weeks to Daytona.  The NASCAR season is about to begin.  The front stretch of Daytona International Speedway is cooling down from the 24 hours of racing last weekend at the Rolex 24.  It will not be long until Speedweeks arrives, Dale Earnhardt Jr. does well in either Daytona 500 qualifying, the Gatorade qualifying races or both and Junior haters will begin saying he is overrated, incapable, in over his head or any number of other detractions. 

I never have understood why people so fervently hate Dale Earnhardt Jr.  I know he has a ton of fans that can, admittedly, become obnoxious at times.  I know he has had a ton of coverage and will continue to do so.  But just what is it that makes their blood boil?

I am sure a large part of the anger is the TV, print, and internet coverage he gets.  Let’s admit it:  programs get more views, articles get more reads, and blogs get more clicks when the name Dale Earnhardt Jr. comes into play.  But do the Jr. haters think their driver deserves more attention?  Perhaps!  However, when asked, most of them will not tell you who their favorite driver is.  Odd.

One of the main things Jr. haters throw out is that Dale Earnhardt Jr. isn’t getting any younger.  I have even seen this little thought grace the lines on ESPN, NASCAR.com, and many other blogs.  So just how hold is he and is he past his prime, which the Jr. hater would say never came?

Dale Earnhardt Jr. was born October 10, 1974.  Entering the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season he will be a ripe old 37.  He has no Sprint Cup Championships and 18 Sprint Cup wins to show for 12 years of full time Sprint Cup racing.  Will he amass a huge sum of wins?  Can he win a championship or more than one?  Or is he just a few years away from climbing from the car, grabbing hold to his walker, and hobbling off into the sunset?

Well, let’s compare Dale Jr. to some great racers from the past.  I know most people, especially Jr. haters, will compare him to his father.  Comparing someone to the best is interesting, but not always sensible.  Let’s see how Dale Earnhardt Jr. compares to some other drivers, such as Dale Jarrett and Cale Yarborough.

I know that many fans would not consider Jarrett one of the greatest, but he is a past champion and had 32 Cup wins.  Earnhardt Jr. is entering his 13^th year in Cup and has 18 wins and 0 championships.  Entering his 13^th season, Jarrett also had 18 wins and 0 championships.  No, Dale Jarrett was not 37.  Indeed, he was 42.

So just how did Jarrett fare in the 5 years after?  Well, he had 13 wins and 1 championship, with an average season finish of 9^th.

Cale Yarborough is widely thought of as one of the toughest NASCAR drivers ever.  It is often said that he could manhandle any car in any situation.  It is no shock then that he was able to have success in his later years.  Yarborough raced in 284 races winning 31 times over a 18 year period before winning his first championship at the age of 37.  Yarborough went on to win 40 times, 3 consecutive championships, and had an average points finish of 2^nd over the next 5 years.

No, don’t blast me yet.  I am not saying that Earnhardt Jr. is on the edge of a run like Yarborough had.  Nor do I think he is as tough.  But the simple fact is that 37 is not entirely that old in NASCAR.

Yes, there have been huge gains by young drivers over the past 15 years or so.  But handfuls of wins aside, Sprint Cup Championships don’t tend to be won by the “Young Guns”.  For example, there has not been a Champion younger than 25 since Jeff Gordon did it at 23 in 1995.  On top of that, it has only been done that one time since Bill Rexford did it at 23 in NASCAR’s second year, 1950 (which was, by the way, more impressive since he did not race in 2 of the 19 races.)  There have only been 11 champions under the age of 30 since NASCAR’s inception 63 seasons ago, most recently Kurt Busch in 2004.

One other number: the average age of the Sprint Cup Champion over the last 10 years is 32.

No, Earnhardt Jr is not too old to win.  No, he is not too old to win the championship.  Debate his skills.  Hate the attention he gets.  Say he is the worst driver in the garage (stretching it quite a bit).  But he is not too old.  Let me know when he starts growing the beard solely to produce hair plugs, or his prostate will only allow him to run 200 mile races.  Then we can talk.

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NASCAR: State Of The Vvrroomin

After watching the State Of The Union address last night on TV, I began to wonder just how the state of NASCAR was.  No, I am not going to wax political and tell you all of my personal political beliefs, although, yes, I do have them.  But I just want to take a look at just how well NASCAR is doing, especially in comparison with the past few years.

Unlike in Washington where goal posts move one way or the other depending on which party is in power, lets have some clear issues that we are comparing.  First, how is NASCAR doing in popularity and following.  Second, how is NASCAR fairing in competition and in having a level playing field.  And third, how is NASCAR preparing for future seasons.

As many sports and sports venues have experienced the recession after 2008, attendance had been seriously slowed.  Part of this has been combated by the lowering of ticket prices at some of NASCAR's tracks, and attendance has somewhat recovered do to that along with a slow recovery in the economy.  NASCAR's TV ratings have also slowly been rising over the past few years, a trend that should continue over the next year after such a close points battle in 2011.

One area to look at to see if NASCAR's popularity is strong is advertising, both TV spots and sponsorship money.  Over the past few years we have seen cars with empty spaces on them indicating just how deeply the recession has affected NASCAR's ability to round up sponsorship money.  Gladly, although sponsorship is still tough to get, I believe we may have seen a "bottom".  EGR, fresh off a thoroughly disappointing season, just reported they have no primary sponsorship opportunities available for 2012.  For a second tier team that just underperformed the heck out of 2012, that is solid.  Yes, there are teams looking for sponsorship, but there always will be, however, the loud stampede of sponsors running away from teams due to tight budgets has definitely quieted.

Parity is one area where there was a definite gain for NASCAR in the 2011 season.  The Sprint Cup Series had 17 winners in 2011, four more than in 2010.  There were also 5 first time winners.  Another snapshot is how many wins came from teams with only one or two cars, this gives you an idea how level the playing field really is.  In 2011, 14 of 36 races were one by teams with only one or two teams.  Also, mostly due to NASCAR's revision of who can compete for the Nationwide Championship, there were 15 different winners in the Nationwide Series, including 5 drivers that were not Cup Series competitors.

On top of the season-long statistics being compared to prior years, one simply has to look at the 2011 points battle that came down to the last lap of the last race.  Not only were the top two battling within a couple points of each other for most of the race, but they came to the finish in the top two positions.  Ending the 2011 season with a Champion being congratulated after a tie-breaker rule was implemented is the largest reason that the 2012 season could be the most watched, most anticipated, and hardest fought season in recent years.

Finally, NASCAR's future was something that was somewhat in question several years ago.  I doubt anyone thought that NASCAR would dwindle away, but many doubted that they would continue to rise in market share and battle with the NFL for the most watched sport in the USA.  Although many of us have not liked all of the changes that NASCAR and Brian France have made over the past 10 years, not to mention those of you stuck in the '80's, we have to admit that even though most hated the look of the COT, didn't understand the Chase any better than its points system predecessor, and we absolutely dreaded a 6th Johnson championship in a row, all NASCAR fans must admit that the points system changes for 2012 and the new rule on racing in multiple series were great changes for 2012.  No, they are not perfect!  But they did produce a great season.

Changes NASCAR has on the horizon could make things very interesting.  The new car changes for the 2013 season may even make the traditionalists happy.  The ability NASCAR has given the auto makers to build car designs that more closely mimic their street cars may actually bring NASCAR closer to "stock car auto racing."  Now lets not get to excited:  the shape will be about the only thing that resembles a street car.  I seriously doubt that NASCAR will make owners install airbags, reach a certain fuel economy, or even make every driver have a wife in the passenger seat berating them for their poor driving.  That would be stock car.  But any change that more closely marries the sport to its history cannot be a bad thing.  I mean, short of moonshine...

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Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


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Top Three Stories For NASCAR In 2012

NASCAR was filled with storylines in 2011.  They ranged from the amazing to the downright disappointing.  We had a contender suspended for a race, a well-respected broadcaster ranted at with profanities, and the first championship decided by a tie-breaker rule.  And those examples were just in the last few races!

What crazy things will happen in 2012?  We just don’t know.  But what we do know is that there are several questions from last year that will be answered in 2012, and will be cause for conversation.

1.  Has NASCAR finally solved the mystery of the “Two Car Tango?”  For quite a

while now NASCAR has been trying to find a way to break up or severely limit the two car drafting style that has plagued the restrictor plate races.  Some readers will hate the fact that I wrote plagued, but tough. 

Two car drafting has taken the individual racer out of the equation.  No longer is a driver in full control of where he takes his car or whom he drafts with.  There are team orders, manufacturer orders, and only the last 20 laps are meaningful.

NASCAR has further limited the temperature allowed in the cooling system, a direction that rendered no benefit last season.  They have also allowed a larger restrictor plate which can give more throttle response and perhaps lessen the need to link up.  The most likely change to truly impact the driver’s ability, or rather their desire, to tandem draft is that they are taking away rear downforce by changing the angle and size of the rear spoiler.  This will make the two car draft less comfortable for the lead driver.

Will it work?  Ask me in February.

2.  Can the best loser in NASCAR become the next winner in NASCAR?  After losing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship to Tony Stewart by a tie-breaker rule, Carl Edwards said he would be a good sport about losing, and he has done a great job.  However, good manners aside, I wouldn’t anticipate Edwards holding back as the Chase approaches.

Carl Edwards has finished in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, and although he may be glad to have been so competitive and have won so many races, any onlooker can tell he is hungry for one particular trophy.  There have been other great drivers to have gone without winning a championship, Mark Martin for example, but one has to believe that Carl will win one soon.

3.  Who made the best offseason changes?  One of the most common questions heading into any season is who made the most of their changes in preparation for the coming year.  Last year the big question was the Hendrick Motorsports shakeup.  This year there were changes from Champion Tony Stewart changing crew chiefs to Kurt Busch joining a 3^rd tier team (at best) after losing his job at Penske.  There were changes at MWR, RPM, EGR, and every other team from different crew chiefs or different drivers to additions of directors of competition or changes to crew.  Who made the best changes?  That we may not know until well into the 2012 schedule

What do you think will be the biggest question mark for the 2012 season?

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bumpdrafter/273756966011479

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Can Kyle Busch Focus?

Over the last 10 years, no drivers have been compared to the late Dale Earnhardt more than Kyle Busch with exception of Dale Jr. and possibly Tony Stewart.  Kyle Busch has been known for his smirky grins, his dented front bumper, and his ability to let his temper both push him to win and at times push him to be called on the carpet by NASCAR.  There is probably no closer copy of Dale Earnhardt's early years in NASCAR.

Long before the black #3 had millions of fans and won 6 championships in 9 years, Dale Earnhardt drove a pink #2 followed by the yellow #3 Wrangler car.  Those cars and Earnhardt's long hair and bushy mustache were synonymous with on-track beating and banging.  Yes Earnhardt won the championship in 1980, his second year, but he did not produce consistent domination until he developed his ability for long term focus. 

There is no worker in the garage, fan in the stands, or commentator on Sunday afternoons that doubts Kyle Busch's ability for short term focus.  Every driver in NASCAR knows exactly how far Busch will go if he ends up on their rear bumper with 10 to go.  But what Kyle Busch has lacked is the ability turn winning races into winning Sprint Cups.

Part of what has been in Kyle's way of winning Cups is the fact that the season is long.  Thirty years ago when Dale Earnhardt was wrecking Waltrip and Labonte the season was 29 or 30 races long.  Today Busch is driving in 36 Sprint Cup races per season.  That is, when he can control himself.  Sure that is only 6 more races, you may say, but that is a month and a half more of a season.  Multiply on top of that the fact that Busch has been racing Nationwide races and truck series races and managing his own truck series team.  No wonder that by mid October he may not remember exactly where NASCAR's line is.  I'm sure they are more than happy to point it out for him when needed.

Some of that packed schedule may be thinned for the 2012 season.  Word out this week is that Busch will possibly run a small Nationwide schedule with little to no truck series races.  Although Busch would rather be behind the wheel than anywhere else, perhaps given some time to sit and watch could do him good, especially as the season progresses.

In the past 4 years Kyle Busch has had one of the best winning totals in NASCAR, 19 wins, just two behind Jimmie Johnson.  However, in those years when he should have contended and possibly won championships, Busch had zero wins in the final 12 races of the year.  Actually, Kyle Busch has only one Chase win in his career and that was in 2005.  Also, in 2008 when Busch dominated victory lane with 8 wins, he had no wins in the final 14 races.  All of the 8 wins came in the first 22 races.  Yes, 8 out of 22 is domination, but 0 for 14 allows championships to slip away, especially in the Chase format.

Will a thinning of his itinerary and a tight grip on the reigns by Joe and J.D. Gibbs propel Busch to contend and perhaps win the championship in 2012 or beyond?  Time will tell, but I don't foresee him wrecking any cars under caution or spinning any unmanned cars on pit road during the 2012 season.  That, of course, doesn't mean he can't "rattle their cage" every now and then...

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