Drivers, Crew Chiefs And Job Applications, Oh My!!

Although there is generally a drop-off in the amount of NASCAR drama to comment on once the season has ended, the 2011-2012 off-season is proving to provide a wealth of material.  Yes, the off-season is known as the end of "silly season" for a reason, but usually the drivers that are looking to secure a ride in November and December are coming from mid to lower tier teams. 

This year the available driver pool is packed with 2 drivers from top tier teams, Kurt Busch from Penske and David Ragan from Roush Fenway, and 2 drivers from mid tier teams, Brian Vickers from Red Bull and David Reutimann from Michael Waltrip Racing.  While each of these drivers carry there own issues, they all have won at the highest level of stock car racing and one of them is a former Sprint Cup Champion.

Not only has their been a heavy load of drivers coming on the "market" this fall, there are also a couple of winning crew chiefs available.  After winning 5 of 10 Chase races and the 2011 Spring Cup Championship, Darian Grubb apparently was not quite achieving the level of success Tony Stewart was looking for, so he is now looking for a job.  Also, after an up and down year, mostly down, Mike Ford, crew chief for Denny Hamlin, is now out of his seat at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Although a couple of the above have just exited their positions, two of them are rumored to be close to nailing down their next gig.  David Ragan been supposedly putting on a full court press to land in the seat of the #22 Penske Racing Dodge vacated by Kurt Busch.  Ragan had been under contract with Roush Fenway Racing through 2012, even though his #6 Ford was without sponsorship next season and was unlikely to run a full schedule.  Ragan has now been released from his contract by RFR, but nothing concrete has been commented on by Penske Racing.

Darian Grubb, defending crew chief champion, has been said to be the leading candidate for the crew chief slot for the #11 FedEx Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.  Although he has less career wins than former crew chief Mike Ford, Grubb is coming off of his championship run with Tony Stewart, so if he and Hamlin can get up to speed quickly, they could be contenders come Chase time in 2012.

One unanswered question as of yet is, with three winning drivers left available, will any top tiered teams or mid tier teams add a car to their stable?  It is not altogether likely that Vickers, Reutimann, or even Busch in his current state, could land a sponsor big enough to start a new car with a top team like JGR, RFR, Stewart Haas or RCR, but Vickers and especially Busch could definitely land a sponsor large enough for a car with Richard Petty Racing who had flirted with adding a car earlier in the year when all of the Danica craze was going on.  Either way, there will be some new looking cars on the track come January at the Daytona test prior to speedweeks.

Read more »

Where Will Busch Go?

With all of the season ending craziness coming to an end, and after some time to hear from sponsors, Kurt Busch and Roger Penske decided to part ways.  Kurt Busch will not drive a Penske Dodge next year, leaving the #22 Penzoil Dodge open for David Ragan or another driver looking for a ride.

But just where will Busch go?

Its not as if we didn't expect to be asking that question this off-season, except most of you probably expected it would be Kyle Busch looking for a job.  However, after Kurt's tirade at the season ending race at Homestead, he will be looking for his third Sprint Cup ride. 

Busch entered the Sprint Cup Series for 7 races in 2000 in the #97 Roush Ford.  After winning a Sprint Cup Championship in 2004, Busch's relationships at Roush Fenway Racing became strained.  He then exited after 2005 to drive for Roger Penske, taking over the driving responsibilities for the blue #2 from retiring driver, Rusty Wallace.

After 10 wins and many ups and downs, the aggravation felt by Busch finally came to a head in a tirade focust at Dr. Jerry Punch, TV racing commentator/analyst, simply for having to wait for the live feed for his interview.

Now that he is without a ride, Busch may find it difficult to find a job with a top tier team.  All of the seats at Hendrick are currently filled.  Although there is a seat open at Roush Fenway Racing, they are without a sponsor, and due to old issues that move would be highly unlikely.  RCR has an open seat, but it is only open for part of the year, with Childress running his grandson, Austin Dillon, for a small schedule.  That leaves JGR, SHR, and EGR. 

Joe Gibbs has his hands full with the refitting of his three teams that did not have a good 2011, so they would be unlikely to add another possible headache.  Stewart Haas is has a full time slot and a part time slot, but without a solid sponsor would likely shy away from starting a fourth team while they are preparing to run a limited schedule with Danica Patrick in 2012.  And EGR, coming off one of their worst seasons as an organization, would have trouble getting another large sponsor without some recent success.

Start his own team or buy into a small organization?  Race into obscurity with a "go or go home" team?  I have no idea on this one.  I can definitely guarantee one thing is certain: Kurt Busch could really use a Miller Lite about now.

Read more »

The Musical Chairs Of NASCAR

Every year, as the NASCAR season winds down, the Sprint Cup "silly season" begins to heat up again.  Most of the larger named drivers and teams try to have moves and plans nailed down by late summer at the latest, but most of the smaller teams have to make quick adjustments for the coming season late in the year.

This year is, of course, no different.  Most of us followed the signings of Carl Edwards and Danica Patrick as the larger ships to fall this year, but many questions are unanswered for several drivers heading into the offseason.

With the anticipated closing or reconfiguration at Red Bull Racing, Brian Vickers is currently awaiting come concrete plans for next year.  As Vickers' teammate, Kasey Kahne, is moving to the 5 car at Hendrick Motorsports, much curiousity has been given to what plans would Mark Martin have for 2012.  Now, with sources saying that Martin will be driving part time in the 00 for Michael Waltrip Racing, everyone is scrambling to see where David Reutimann will be driving.

The two current big question marks are Reutimann and David Ragan.  Roush Fenway Racing is currently saying that they are anticipating running 3 teams next year with the #6 running a partial schedule.  With that change, Reutimann and Ragan, both race winners, could be a great grab for some of the smaller NASCAR Teams.

As interesting as it is to see who is up for grabs, the possibilities of what seats may or may not come to fruition is astounding.  There with full time rides dropping at RFR, MWR, and probably at RCR with Bowyer leaving, some of the mid-tier two car teams may decide to add a seat to take advantage of a possible opening in the top 35. 

Richard Petty Motorsports has already voiced interest in the possibility of adding a 3rd team to their stable of Allmendinger and Ambrose.  Of course, they were toying with the possibility of an available Danica Patrick or Mark Martin at the time.  Also, Chip Ganassi may see an advantage to adding a car to his EGR stable as may Roger Penske with Penske Racing.

The fact is, there is a probability that going into the 2012 Sprint Cup season there will only be one 4 car team: Hendrick Motorsports.  The key reason for this is, of course, the lack of large sponsorship dollars needed to pay for a top tier team.  Will fields drop below 43, I doubt it, but there may well be a couple more start and park teams.

Read more »

The 2011 Chase: Who’s Down, Who’s Out?

With the “Race To The Chase” well underway, much speculation has been given to who will be in the Chase, and who will be relegated to “also ran” for the rest of the season. So, since we have a week without a race and no driver spats to talk about, let’s take a look at who is in, who is struggling, and who is out.

The “In’s” are definitely not a mathematical lock at this point, but one should not bet against them. The top 7 drivers, Edwards, Johnson, Ku. Busch, Harvick, Ky. Busch, Kenseth and Gordon, are well out of reach as long as no major catastrophe occurs. Gordon is only a point ahead of 8th place Newman, but given the fact that he has an average finish of 12.4 at the 7 remaining tracks prior to the Chase cut-off, he should easily end up in the top 10.

The “Out’s” are those from 16th and below. I know there are those of you who say that the wild card rule contradicts this prediction, but hear me out. Without a huge points gain or another win by Keselowski (almost a 50 point deficit behind 15th place), or multiple wins by others in the next 7 races, most likely the two wild cards are currently within the top 15. There should be little doubt that a win will come from Stewart, Biffle, Kahne or Bowyer in the next 7 races.

Along with Keselowski, the other drivers just outside the top 15 all seem to be fizzling out. Mark Martin is having trouble getting inside the top 10, Ambrose and Almendinger, although better than 2010, are consistently inconsistent, and Martin Truex Jr. has yet to post a top 5 finish.

Of those who are left, positions 8 through 15, two are definitely not “Down.” Without a string of bad luck, Hamlin and Stewart have some of their best tracks ahead and should be inside the top 10 by the checkered flag at Richmond. They have overall average finishes for the next 7 tracks of 13th and 12th respectively ranking 3rd and 1st among the 7th-15th place drivers. Keep in mind that one or two DNF’s could throw all of this out the window.

Out of the other 6 drivers, Newman, Earnhardt Jr., Bowyer, Ragan, Kahne, and Biffle, the last 3 are definitely in need of a win to make the Chase. Outside some major DNF’s, these drivers will not be making an appearance in the top 10, so entrance into the Chase is definitely dependant on getting one of the two wild card spots. Ragan is the only one of these that currently has a win and, as long as he stays in the top 15 in points, should get a wild card.

That leaves Newman, Earnhardt, and Bowyer to fight for the remaining spot in the top 10. The stress is definitely lessened on Newman now that he has a win and could get a wild card spot, but don’t plan on seeing him lay down. Earnhardt Jr.’s recent slide has prompted several commentators to say he is finished. They point to the next 3 races, Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, as his Waterloo and say he will not recover in time to make the top 10. If they are correct, the only other way for Junior to make the Chase is if he is 11th in points and Ragan is the only driver from 11th-20th with a win.

If each of the 7th-15th place drivers finished their average finish at the next 7 tracks, here is what the points will look like after Richmond:

7th- Gordon
8th- Stewart
9th- Hamlin
10th- Newman
11th- Earnhardt Jr.
12th- Bowyer
13th- Biffle
14th- Kahne
15th- Ragan

Should be a tight race for the last 4 spots so bring on Indy!

Read more »

Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #3- Roush Fenway Racing

Roush Fenway Racing finished the 2010 season with a bang.  This team started 2010 with 19 top-10s in the first 10 races then slid quickly with only 9 top-10s in the second 10 races.  As the confusion wore off of the new Ford engine, however, RFR quickly came around and finished with 17 top-10s in the Chase, with 8 of those being top-5s and 3 being wins.

For David Ragan, 2011 has a fork in the road, one he will reach around July or August.  In 2010, Ragan had 15 finishes between 11th and 20th, yet only 3 in the top 10.  Ragan did have more consistent runs down the stretch, but not quite the caliber that Jack Roush will want from a long term investment.  If Ragan does not start breaking into the top ten and come close to qualifying for the Chase, he will be looking for a new ride come September.

Greg Biffle had a 2010 that was similar to the rest of his career: great finishes and horrible finishes.  In the final 20 races, Biffle finished 7 times in the top 5; and also finished 5 times 30th or worse.  So indicative of his hard driving style, of his 9 top 15 finishes in those 20 races, 7 were top 5's.  If Biffle could find some consistency in 2011 he could mount a championship run, but don't expect it.  Don't get me wrong, Biffle is a great driver, arguably one of the hardest chargers in the garage, but consistency just isn't his thing.

Speaking of consistency, Kenseth could be looking at another '03-like year in 2011.  His finishes of 2010 show a definite return of consistency, with 24 finishes in the top 15.  In fact, in the last 20 races, Kenseth finished outside the top 20 only twice.  However, a consistent year like '03 sadly will not achieve the same success in 2011 due to a need for dominance in the Chase, not just consistency.

No driver in the RFR stable is more ready to start 2011 than Carl Edwards.  After finishing the year with back to back wins, Edwards is eager for the opportunity to continue the streak.  2010 was a great year for Edwards, held back only by some miscues in the Chase and a poor start to the Summer.  If Edwards can start 2011 where he left 2010 and have a consistent year, he may be the best driver to compete with Jimmie Johnson next Fall, especially if he can get streaky.  His pair of wins in 2010 were the 5th time in his career that he had back to back wins.

Read more »

Look Out For Roush Fenway In 2011!

I am by no means a Roush Fenway Racing fan, but they may just be the team to beat come February. Anyone reading this may think I have been drinking, but hear me out.

I agree, 2010 has been dismal for RFR: only 4 wins this year and 0 prior to August. Only 2 RFR drivers won: Bifle and Edwards. Many times this year, they all looked like they were down 10 hp or something would go wrong late in the race. Nothing was clicking. Crew chief changes and angry teammates were the norm.

However, the final 3 races show some definite promise. The average finish for all four drivers over the final 3 races was 9.25. Out of 12 finishes, only 3 were outside the top 10. The new success was across the board. That spells momentum for RFR going into 2011.

Whether it's figuring out the newest Ford engine, team configurations starting to mesh, or just plain luck, look out for RFR teams in February.

Read more »