Get Set!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 1st - 5th

As the Chase quickly approaches, many drivers are getting ready to prepare for 2013.  They will not be "in the hunt", so they are either preparing with their team for a stronger run next year, or are preparing for a new ride to start speedweeks at Daytona.

The Chase drivers, on the other hand, are preparing to put their best foot forward on the first Chase race.  Not wanting to fall behind and give up a chance at a Championship, drivers will be looking to make statements at the 1.5 mile Chicagoland Speedway.  Whether they will step out ahead or not, these 5 drivers are starting out front on their way to the Sprint Cup:

5th - Greg Biffle: In many ways, 2012 has been a season of renewal for Biffle and the 16 team.  They have led more laps this year than any season since '06.  They have remained in or close to the top 3 in points for most of the regular season.  And the 16 team has not finished the season in the top 5 since 2008 and have never had an average finish better than 11.9 (their current average for the '12 season is 9.7).

To have a chance at winning the Sprint Cup, Biffle will have to produce on his strong suits, the 1.5 mile downforce tracks and the Monster Mile of Dover.  If he can pop of a win or two, look for him to be close to the top entering Homestead, a track where he has 3 wins.  The 'Biff' has an average finish of 15.9 and 10 wins at the 10 Chase tracks.

4th - Brad Keselowski: Making his second Chase appearance in just 3 full time Sprint Cup seasons, Keselowski has definitely made his place amoung the top tier drivers.  He has 3 wins this year and is more than capable of winning a few more prior to Homestead.  Along with his ability to stay up front, the 2 team has also shown that they and their driver are willing to do whatever is needed to win, a trait that may serve them well when the points battle gets close at the end.

The downside for the 2 team is that Keselowski only has good history at a few of the Chase tracks.  Don't get me wrong, he is more than capable of winning at all of them, he just has poor average finishes at most of them.  His strong tracks are definitely Talladega and Kansas.  Keselowski's average finish at the Chase tracks is 17.1 and he has 3 wins on those tracks.

3rd - Tony Stewart: This year Stewart is entering the Chase in 3rd and not quite as unsure as he was last year when he dominated the Chase with 5 wins.  However, although Stewart has more top 5's this year than the previous two, he only has two more top 10's than top 5's.  What that means is that if Stewart has a good car and a good setup, he can compete and will finish within sight of the lead.  If he does not, he is not getting to the top 10.  Translation: Stewart could break out with multiple wins, or he could struggle with poor setups.

Nobody, though, should count the 14 out of the Championship.  2011 should serve as plenty reminder that Stewart may be down but is never 'out'.  Stewart, after all, is known for being at mid-late season driver.  He does not, however, have Darian Grubb who helped him win the Cup last year.  Stewart has an average finish of 12.5 and 21 wins on the Chase tracks.

2nd - Jimmie Johnson: Another Chase and another attempt at a Championship for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew.  Johnson has shown this year, again, that he wins the big races, and once he is out front he is hard to catch.  Johnson has had three wins so far, and is unlikely to go winless in the Chase.  Johnson has NEVER gone winless in the final 10 races of the year in his Sprint Cup career.

Winning or not, Johnson cannot be counted out of the Chase picture.  He has plenty of ability to win, let alone his proven history with Crew Chief Knaus at the Chase tracks from which to draw information.  Johnson has an average finish of 10th and 31 wins at the Chase tracks.

1st - Denny Hamlin: After not being able to back up his 2010 performance last year, Hamlin has been able to slowly build this year to the point that he is the Chase frontrunner.  Hamlin has had an up and down 2012, but with a few wins and more consistently running at or near the front over the summer, Hamlin is hitting his stride at just the right time.

One of Hamlin's biggest strengths this year is the addition of last years Cup winning Crew Chief, Darian Grubb.  Grubb may well be out for some 'how do you like me now' and Hamlin would be more than happy to help him out.  What Hamlin will be sure to look out for is a momentum trip up like he had near the end of the 2010 Chase.  Hamlin has an average finish of 13.4 and 10 wins at the Chase tracks.

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NASCAR Goes (Off) Road Racing...

Road courses are like the Busch brothers to most NASCAR fans: either you love them or hate them.  They are much more technical, much more prone to fuel mileage strategy, and tend to favor a handful of drivers that have more experience road racing.  However, most NASCAR fans cannot discount the fact that when the cars are side by side, the opportunity for fender-banging, cut tires, and more 'gritty' racing is high.

Sunday afternoon was no different.  While much of the first half of the race was fairly inconsequential, with few lead changes and no real drama, the end of the race featured popular drivers spinning, side by side racing, and dirt flying in the air as Keselowski and Ambrose commenced an all-or-nothing dash to the checkered flag.

Both of the drivers offered to add to the paint job of the other's racecar on the final lap, yet neither wrecked the other, a result pointed out by Keselowski in his post race interview.  After the two of them made their way past Kyle Busch who was losing control after running through an oil slick laid down by the #47 of Bobby Labonte, they each ran off the road in the interloop.  After Keselowski regained the rear bumper of Ambrose, he gave a slight bump which allowed him to move to the left side of the #9  heading into the last corner, a right hander.  Ambrose then ran Keselowski up toward the wall on the exit of the corner, without making contact, giving himself the momentum to capture the checkered flag.

During the final few laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. spun along with Jeff Gordon, ending the hopes of top 10 finishes for both.  Busch (Kyle), who spun after contact with the #2, finished 7th.  Also, the race also saw problems for Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and more.

The race at Watkins Glen International generally has more action, mostly due to the sharp right-handed turn at the end of the front stretch, along with the tricky interloop on the back-stretch.  Both of these spots allow aggressive drivers to outbreak other drivers and get side by side, hoping to make it through the coming turn.

Whether you enjoy road racing and want more of these races or cannot stand them and prefer ovals any time, Sunday's race ended with a bang.

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Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

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Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


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The Best New Driver/Crew Chief Pairing In 2012?

The 2011 Silly Season has been quite a busy one.  Usually there are drivers sliding from this team to that so fast you can hardly keep up.  While that has not quite been the case this year, there have been a multitude of crew chief changes for drivers that struggled in 2011, and in a couple cases for drivers that did not struggle.

In 2011 there were several new driver/crew chief combinations, most of them were in the Hendrick Motorsports garage.  It was definitely interesting to watch which new combination would win and how each of them would deal with problems that arose.  Although the Gordon/Gustafson combination would top most lists, the Earnhardt/Letarte duo definitely did better than most assumed they would.

In 2012 there will be no less than 11 new driver/crew chief combinations starting in February at the Daytona 500.  There will be at least 3 or 4 of these new combos that will visit victory lane, and no doubt 3 or 4 of them will make the Chase.  Will there be any surprises?  Will any of the new teams gel quickly and become the next Jimmie and Chad or Jeff and Ray?  Well that may be a long shot, but below I have listed the best three of these new combinations along with how they will impress in 2012.

1.  Hamlin / Grubb-  The #11 FedEx Toyota will begin the year with a driver that faded last year after his dominant run in 2010, and a crew chief with something to prove after being let go a couple weeks after winning the Sprint Cup Championship.  Will Hamlin/Grubb win a race?  Without a doubt.  Grubb has never had a season without a win, and Hamlin has never had a full season without a win.  Make the Chase?  Of course.  Hamlin has never finished outside the top 12 in a full season and Grubb has never finished outside the top 15.  Given Hamlin's ability to put a great Chase run together as he did in 2010, combined with Grubb's recent success at Chase race domination, be prepared for a strong charge in the final races of 2012 by Denny Hamlin.

2.  Harvick / Wilson- After the 2011 season, Shane Wilson has been moved over from the #33, formerly driven by Clint Bowyer.  Although Harvick and last year's crew chief, Todd Berrier, had some great success, including becoming the "Closer" and having a great run in the 2010 Chase to challenge for the Sprint Cup Championship, RCR has elected to move Wilson to the #29 for 2012.  Wilson will be working with many of the same people, so all that will change from last year will be the driver, and moving from Bowyer to Harvick is a step up.  Shane Wilson only has 2 Sprint Cup wins, but he does have 14 Nationwide wins, 13 of which were driven by, you guessed it, Kevin Harvick.  With the same crew, same garage, and having already won together, it won't take long for these two to develop the chemistry needed to compete.  Oh, and 7 of those Nationwide wins the two had were at Chase tracks.

3.  Stewart / Addington-  After almost every championship win, the winning team changes a little.  Very few championship teams have been able to field the exact same team in February.  However, that particular type of change has not happened to a championship team since owner Billy Hagan replaced Dale Inman, arguably the greatest crew chief ever, with Steve Hmiel for driver Terry Labonte after winning the 1984 championship.  I could not find the details about how Inman left the position open, someone older than I will have to answer that one.  What I do know is that Labonte did not repeat his success of 1984.  Don't get me wrong, Hmiel was no slouch, but changing the crew chief is no small change.  With that said, Stewart has proven he has plenty of drive left, and after coming up short with Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch, Addington is sure to have something to prove.  Addington has a knack for pulling a rabbit out of his hat and Stewart has more determination that most drivers, so look for these two to get at least a couple of wins and a Chase appearance.

With all of these changes, and more changes to come, February will be a busy time in both North Carolina and Daytona.  Will any of the new duos become the next super team?  Who knows.  Either way 2012 is coming soon, and all of these teams are definitely working to make this season a wild one.

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Drivers, Crew Chiefs And Job Applications, Oh My!!

Although there is generally a drop-off in the amount of NASCAR drama to comment on once the season has ended, the 2011-2012 off-season is proving to provide a wealth of material.  Yes, the off-season is known as the end of "silly season" for a reason, but usually the drivers that are looking to secure a ride in November and December are coming from mid to lower tier teams. 

This year the available driver pool is packed with 2 drivers from top tier teams, Kurt Busch from Penske and David Ragan from Roush Fenway, and 2 drivers from mid tier teams, Brian Vickers from Red Bull and David Reutimann from Michael Waltrip Racing.  While each of these drivers carry there own issues, they all have won at the highest level of stock car racing and one of them is a former Sprint Cup Champion.

Not only has their been a heavy load of drivers coming on the "market" this fall, there are also a couple of winning crew chiefs available.  After winning 5 of 10 Chase races and the 2011 Spring Cup Championship, Darian Grubb apparently was not quite achieving the level of success Tony Stewart was looking for, so he is now looking for a job.  Also, after an up and down year, mostly down, Mike Ford, crew chief for Denny Hamlin, is now out of his seat at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Although a couple of the above have just exited their positions, two of them are rumored to be close to nailing down their next gig.  David Ragan been supposedly putting on a full court press to land in the seat of the #22 Penske Racing Dodge vacated by Kurt Busch.  Ragan had been under contract with Roush Fenway Racing through 2012, even though his #6 Ford was without sponsorship next season and was unlikely to run a full schedule.  Ragan has now been released from his contract by RFR, but nothing concrete has been commented on by Penske Racing.

Darian Grubb, defending crew chief champion, has been said to be the leading candidate for the crew chief slot for the #11 FedEx Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.  Although he has less career wins than former crew chief Mike Ford, Grubb is coming off of his championship run with Tony Stewart, so if he and Hamlin can get up to speed quickly, they could be contenders come Chase time in 2012.

One unanswered question as of yet is, with three winning drivers left available, will any top tiered teams or mid tier teams add a car to their stable?  It is not altogether likely that Vickers, Reutimann, or even Busch in his current state, could land a sponsor big enough to start a new car with a top team like JGR, RFR, Stewart Haas or RCR, but Vickers and especially Busch could definitely land a sponsor large enough for a car with Richard Petty Racing who had flirted with adding a car earlier in the year when all of the Danica craze was going on.  Either way, there will be some new looking cars on the track come January at the Daytona test prior to speedweeks.

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Dale Jr. A Villain? Yes, Please!

During Sunday's Sprint Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr. did all he could to win friends and influence people.  He rubbed a lot of elbows...well, fenders.  Yet several racers, like Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin, had sour words to say about him on their in-car radios. 

Of course I am being sarcastic.  Junior ruffled many feathers, but at least he did so with a smile!

For a few years now, well, at least since he has been at Hendrick Motorsports, he has been more "prim and proper."  Rarely looking scruffy, cleaning up his off-track persona, and being more even-handed on the track became a way of life with his new team.  I was not a fan of Dale Jr.'s changes initially, but Hendrick Motorsports has grown on this NASCAR fan that began as a #3 fanatic.

Many of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s fans have screamed for years that he needed to be more aggressive, and less polished.  Although Dale Jr. has never been huge on using his front bumper and has always wanted to win "the right way," he has definitely been sure to repay any rough driving with swift retribution. 

On Sunday, Dale Jr. said on the radio that he would like it if NASCAR had more short track races but that if they did he might become a "villain."  He added "I'm getting kind of a reputation."  Well, I am sure JR Nation would be glad to see it.  Most of his reputation on Sunday came from not only his use of his fenders but also for his aggressive entrance to the corners on the outside.  He made some drivers a bit edgy, as Hamlin said on his radio that "the 88 is all over the place." 

Hmm, made drivers edgy.  Used his front bumper.  Drove aggressively.  Who does that remind you of....?

For the most part, Junior's driving at Martinsville was due to the fact that he had a very fast car and knew it.  Although many people would add that he may have had a better finish if he had been more conservative early, few could argue that driver 88 didn't enjoy driving this Sunday.

The question is how can Letarte and Hendrick get Dale Jr. to be that aggressive every week.  He has had fast cars at other tracks, but it's the knowing part that comes up short.  He has not had as much confidence in the setups and chassis since his slide this summer.  If he and Letarte can continue with their confidence building the next three races, the 88 crew could start off 2012 with a head of steam.

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Qualifying Key For Earnhardt Jr.

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to the Irish hills of Michigan to the Michigan International Speedway. With only three races left after this weekend until the Chase, the stakes are high and pressure is mounting on those at or near the cutoff. Last week’s race at Watkins Glen only added suspense to the Race to the Chase by moving a few people around in the points standings, so this weekend could make or break several teams.

Three weeks ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr. entered Indianapolis in 9th place in the standings, just 7 points ahead of 11th place (at that time, Tony Stewart). Few people, me included, felt he would make these three races and remain in the top 10. Not only does Junior have an abysmal average finish at both Indy and Watkins Glen, but the two drivers directly behind him, Hamlin and Stewart, have excellent records at Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen.

Most bloggers said he was finished. On-air personalities asked if the 88 team was at the point of panicking. All the while Letarte and Earnhardt said they would stay calm and plug away. And plug away they have.

No, they have not had amazing finishes or wins to finally satisfy their many fans. The 88 has not muscled its way to the front and dominated. But they have been steady. They have not panicked. They have not wavered.

Outside of some great running at Pocono, where he had an average running position of 9th, and some luck at Watkins Glen to get up front, Earnhardt has not been great the past three weeks. He did not have to be, however. He simply had to be better than his average at those tracks. With the coming four tracks being strong tracks for him historically, he just needed to weather the storm at Indy, Pocono and especially Watkins Glen.

Now, heading to Michigan, Earnhardt Jr. must return to running in the top 10. He has had good runs at Michigan in the past, and with Hendrick horsepower and Letarte’s Michigan statistics, there is no excuse for mediocrity.

One key for the 88 crew this weekend may be qualifying. In the past, Earnhardt has run well at Michigan if he has a slick, good qualifying car. In his top 10 starts there, Earnhardt has an average running position of 5th. Not to mention that this year it seems as though he has begun from mid pack almost every race. Earnhardt Jr. will not be able to dominate a race again unless he has the car, and the confidence, to push it for all its worth when qualifying.

This weekend may also be a slight shift of focus for the 88 team. With a 36 point cushion over 11th place Clint Bowyer, Letarte has chosen to bring an unraced and untested chassis to the 2 mile track in Brooklyn, Michigan. Letarte either is on the offensive to chance it for a win or is taking a page from his shop-mate, Chad Knaus, and preparing for a Chase race. It is definitely possible that the info the team gained by modeling the chassis after another chassis, or placing the chassis on the 7 post shaker that simulates the coming track made Letarte feel that it was a good choice for the weekend. However, if you were playing it save until the Chase cutoff, would you choose a car that had NEVER been to a race track?

Either way, it should be a great race to watch this weekend. With Bowyer, Stewart and others feeling the pressure for a win to get a Chase wild card slot, look for fuel and pit strategies to run wild!


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Coming Back To Tony Stewart’s Turf

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will travel to Watkins Glenn International for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen. The Glen is, of course, the second road course race on the Sprint Cup schedule and is also the strongest track for Tony Stewart.

Stewart, a perennial summer powerhouse, has not yet found his summer strength and currently finds himself 9th in the points, one point ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 10th, and with no wins. Stewart is also only 24 points ahead of 11th place Denny Hamlin, a position where Stewart would find himself outside of the Chase without any wins.

The question for many NASCAR fans, specifically Stewart fans, is will Stewart make The Glen his starting point for the rest of the season. If so, he could relax their fears that he could miss the Chase for the first time since 2006, and only the second time since its inception.

The two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion must feel some comfort in returning to the New York track where he has 5 wins in the last 9 races. He certainly knows what it takes to navigate the track, but the only stat that spotlights that fact more than his five wins is the fact that from 2004-2009 his average finish there was 1.34. During those six races he had 4 wins, and either won or was chasing the winner.

There is no doubt that the winner this weekend will either have a 14 on his hood or will have to beat someone with a 14 on their hood.

If Stewart were to get a win this weekend, or even a top 5 finish, he could definitely feel a bit more comfortable with his standing above 11th heading toward the Richmond Chase cutoff. His closest competitors, Earnhardt Jr., Hamlin, and Boyer have nowhere near the average finish that he has established. The strongest of these, Hamlin, has an average finish of 13th.

If Stewart and each of his chasers reached only their average finish this weekend, Stewart would leave The Glen with a 32 point lead over 11th place. If that were so, Stewart would have to finish an average of 8 places behind Earnhardt Jr. and Hamlin in Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond. Not likely.

Either way, I am certain that only one number will be on Tony Stewart’s mind on Sunday, and that is 1st. And I definitely wouldn’t pick this Sunday to be blocking the 14…but here’s hoping someone tries…


Follow JD on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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What Does Carl Edwards Want?

Each Summer NASCAR begins their “Silly Season” talk, filled with suspicions, rumors, and plots about who will change teams, who will reorganize, and who will be left out of the musical chairs game that is the Sprint Cup Garage. The 2011 season, of course, is no different. While I maintain that the biggest name to land for next year is Danica Patrick, Carl Edwards is, by far, the most chased driver in the Cup garage.

Edwards’ contract with Jack Roush and Roush Fenway Racing is over at the end of the 2011 season, and as he has yet to sign a new contract with RFR, suspicions and rumors are flying that he will be leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing. Gibbs is the strongest team with an extra seat available to offer, so the possibility makes some sense, but would the move be anything more than a lateral move?

Although JGR has had a championship contender and multiple wins over the past few years, they have not necessarily left RFR behind. Both teams are among the top tier in NASCAR.

So then one would have to wonder what Edwards is looking for.

If it is more money, the addition of Ford in the effort with RFR to keep Edwards should help. Then again, Toyota would likely give just as much to get Edwards whose selling ability is as good as or better than that of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano combined. So if both are willing to meet what Edwards is looking for in pay, what else is there?

Perhaps Edwards is looking for a fresh start. He has not slowed on the track, but his wins the past few years have slowed from ’05, ’07, and ’08. From 2005-2008 he had 17 wins in spite of being shut out in 2006. However from 2009 to now he has only 3. Yes, the new Ford engines have given him some boost this year, but that has yet to translate into victory lane appearances.

With the current level of parity in NASCAR’s premier league, a move from one top tier team to another is not likely going to make a big difference in equipment and manpower. Even Hendrick Motorsports, once seen as head and shoulders about the other teams, has been brought back to the pack. So whatever Edwards basis his opinion on will have to give him peace of mind that the owner will not only give Edwards plenty of people, but the right people. He will have to feel that the owner is committed to putting him not just in victory lane, but at the head of the table in November at the awards ceremony.

Either way, I can only say one thing to him… Carl, while you’re thinking about this future altering decision….remember to turn left…

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Is Earnhardt Jr. Really “Done”

Over the past few races, with the rapid decline of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the Sprint Cup Standings, many people have speculated whether the 88 team would make the Chase. Some NASCAR pundits have even implied or even outright stated that Junior’s Chase hopes are already finished.

For the most part, people are speculating that his downward points trajectory will not change enough to keep him in the top 10 in points and, without a win in the coming 7 races, he will miss the Chase cutoff and the wild card. The number one reason they may be right is not Earnhardt Jr.’s poor finishes, but the average finishes the drivers around him in the standings have at the coming tracks. Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and even Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman all have great finishes at some of the next few tracks. Therefore, not only does Earnhardt have to stop the bleeding, but he also has to return to competitiveness.

The number one reason detractors may be wrong is that most of the slide in points has been due to bad luck, rather than bad racing. After 3 straight top 7 finishes, Earnhardt Jr. finished a disappointing 21st at Michigan, but his 41st the following weekend at Sonoma was due to being caught up in someone else’s wreck. The next week at Daytona, Junior was again caught in someone else’s wreck, relegating him to a 19th place finish. A third week in a row, Earnhardt Jr. had damage to his car; this time at Kentucky he blew a tire. And finally, in the last race, at Loudon, he ran poorly until saving a decent 15th place finish.

No, Junior did not stand much chance at winning in these races, except possibly at Daytona, but if he had finished 20th at Sonoma, 12th at Daytona, and 20th at Kentucky, each a likely finish without his mishaps, he would be 38 points higher. That would put him 1 point behind 6th place Matt Kenseth and give him a comfortable lead on 11th place Tony Stewart.

However, he is not 1 point behind Kenseth, and Tony Stewart is lurking. So let’s take a look at the next few races.

Although the next three tracks are probable pitfalls for Earnhardt Jr., there is a possibility that some of his detractors may have jumped a couple races early. Although Earnhardt Jr. has a poor average finish at Indianapolis and Pocono, 22nd and 17th respectively, he has had some success at those tracks.

If you overlook last year’s 27th at Indy, Junior’s past several races there haven’t been so bad. In ’07 he had an engine failure after having led 33 laps as one of the two favorites for the win. In ’08 he finished 6th, and in ’09 he started the race 3rd yet had another engine failure. Also, his crew chief, Steve Letarte, has been preparing cars for Jeff Gordon at Indy the past few years, which is definitely an advantage for 2011. Letarte has an average finish of 10th the last 4 visits at Indy with Gordon.

At Pocono, Junior is not necessarily considered a force to reckon with, but he has 7 finishes between 2nd and 6th, including a 6th place finish in his last visit there in June. Also, with his performance at some flat tracks this year, along with how close he has come on fuel mileage races, Junior should be considered a possible factor at Pocono in August.

At any rate, the races at Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen will tell whether Earnhardt Jr. has the drive to make the Chase this year. But I wouldn’t throw dirt in his face just yet.


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The 2011 Chase: Who’s Down, Who’s Out?

With the “Race To The Chase” well underway, much speculation has been given to who will be in the Chase, and who will be relegated to “also ran” for the rest of the season. So, since we have a week without a race and no driver spats to talk about, let’s take a look at who is in, who is struggling, and who is out.

The “In’s” are definitely not a mathematical lock at this point, but one should not bet against them. The top 7 drivers, Edwards, Johnson, Ku. Busch, Harvick, Ky. Busch, Kenseth and Gordon, are well out of reach as long as no major catastrophe occurs. Gordon is only a point ahead of 8th place Newman, but given the fact that he has an average finish of 12.4 at the 7 remaining tracks prior to the Chase cut-off, he should easily end up in the top 10.

The “Out’s” are those from 16th and below. I know there are those of you who say that the wild card rule contradicts this prediction, but hear me out. Without a huge points gain or another win by Keselowski (almost a 50 point deficit behind 15th place), or multiple wins by others in the next 7 races, most likely the two wild cards are currently within the top 15. There should be little doubt that a win will come from Stewart, Biffle, Kahne or Bowyer in the next 7 races.

Along with Keselowski, the other drivers just outside the top 15 all seem to be fizzling out. Mark Martin is having trouble getting inside the top 10, Ambrose and Almendinger, although better than 2010, are consistently inconsistent, and Martin Truex Jr. has yet to post a top 5 finish.

Of those who are left, positions 8 through 15, two are definitely not “Down.” Without a string of bad luck, Hamlin and Stewart have some of their best tracks ahead and should be inside the top 10 by the checkered flag at Richmond. They have overall average finishes for the next 7 tracks of 13th and 12th respectively ranking 3rd and 1st among the 7th-15th place drivers. Keep in mind that one or two DNF’s could throw all of this out the window.

Out of the other 6 drivers, Newman, Earnhardt Jr., Bowyer, Ragan, Kahne, and Biffle, the last 3 are definitely in need of a win to make the Chase. Outside some major DNF’s, these drivers will not be making an appearance in the top 10, so entrance into the Chase is definitely dependant on getting one of the two wild card spots. Ragan is the only one of these that currently has a win and, as long as he stays in the top 15 in points, should get a wild card.

That leaves Newman, Earnhardt, and Bowyer to fight for the remaining spot in the top 10. The stress is definitely lessened on Newman now that he has a win and could get a wild card spot, but don’t plan on seeing him lay down. Earnhardt Jr.’s recent slide has prompted several commentators to say he is finished. They point to the next 3 races, Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, as his Waterloo and say he will not recover in time to make the top 10. If they are correct, the only other way for Junior to make the Chase is if he is 11th in points and Ragan is the only driver from 11th-20th with a win.

If each of the 7th-15th place drivers finished their average finish at the next 7 tracks, here is what the points will look like after Richmond:

7th- Gordon
8th- Stewart
9th- Hamlin
10th- Newman
11th- Earnhardt Jr.
12th- Bowyer
13th- Biffle
14th- Kahne
15th- Ragan

Should be a tight race for the last 4 spots so bring on Indy!

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Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Backed Into A Corner

With only 8 races left until the Chase cut off, Dale Earnhardt Jr. finds himself backed into a corner once again. In the past 4 races he has watched his name slide from 3rd in the points to 8th, only 21 points inside the top 10, and his has gone from contending for wins, to not cracking the top 10.

Of course, being bitten by the bad luck bug has definitely not helped. Through the first 15 races Earnhardt had finished on the lead lap in all but two, however, in the last three races he has matched that same amount and wrecked to the finish in Daytona. A blown engine, caught up in a wreck, and a blown tire in three races. If luck is a lady, she’s been rather spiteful to the 88 lately.

Now I’m not saying that he was running well in those three races. He hates Infineon, hates tandem racing, and had never raced at Kentucky, and all three showed. Although he had a strong car at Daytona, he did not dominate there or even challenge for the top 10 at the other two.

Had his races not ended the same way, however, you would be looking at about 40 more points of a cushion on 11th place in the points. That would probably have put him in the “practically in” category, which is where I believe Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth are. By “practically in” I am referring to the top 10. If you look at the wild card, you would probably include Jeff Gordon, who has two wins, since all of the others behind him only have one. Either way, I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would like to have his place in the Chase solidified, and soon.

The prognosis of him being “in” sooner, rather than later, is not great. At the 8 remaining tracks, Junior has 6 wins, but all of those wins are at the last 4 before the Chase. The first 4, Loudon, Indianapolis, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, are challenges for him for sure. At both Indy and the Glen he has an average finish of 22nd, and at Loudon and Pocono he has been hot and cold. The little encouragement he has for the coming 4 races is that 3 of the 4 are similar tracks in that they have flatter corners. That is encouragement due to the fact that he finished 6th at the first Pocono race this year and 4th in his last visit to Loudon.

Earnhardt must come out of the corner swinging, though, as the only one of the 4 drivers immediately below him in points has a worse average finish at Loudon. That, even, is no consolation, since Clint Bowyers 16th place average there does not paint as complete a picture as his two wins.

I would speculate that Junior’s chances for a win at Bristol, Atlanta, or Richmond are high only if he does either great or poorly in the next 4 races. If he is still just inside the top 10, it may be too much of a temptation to be slightly less aggressive. However, if he is locked or almost locked into the Chase, or just outside the top 10, he will either be able to be aggressive or will have to be out of necessity.

Follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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What Separates Hamlin And Johnson At Pocono?

When NASCAR goes to certain tracks, there are always particular drivers that stand out above the crowd. At restrictor plate tracks, people point to Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. At road courses, fans think of Gordon, Stewart, and maybe Montoya. At most of the other tracks, people tend to think of Jimmie Johnson.

This weekend, Pocono will bring 500 miles of engine heating, tire failing, (and possibly fan snoring). Over the past few years, nobody has been stronger than Denny Hamlin. With 4 wins, Hamlin has proven he knows his way around the three-cornered beast. Hamlin boasts an amazing average finish of 8.2 with 7 top 5’s in 10 starts. Whether too hurt or too new, he is always too fast at the Pennsylvania track.

No doubt, Hamlin would love to break back into the win column at Pocono and further his rise into the top 10 in points, but there is one driver who may stand in his way. Of course, this driver stands in many people’s way when it comes to the entrance of victory lane. Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of 9.6 and has 2 wins himself at Pocono. And although Johnson is a favorite at almost any track, there may be one advantage Johnson has that Hamlin does not. He might be shiftier.

This week at Pocono, NASCAR is changing their transmission rules package and many drivers are saying that they will be shifting again on the triangle shaped track. In 2005, NASCAR changed their transmission rules to stop the shifting, and the next year was the first for Mr. Hamlin. The last year that shifting was allowed, Jimmie Johnson swept the two Pocono races.

Now, don’t get me wrong! I am sure Hamlin is quite capable of figuring out when and where to shift this weekend. But if there is anything a driver doesn’t want interrupted, its his rhythm. Of course, he could indeed go out this weekend and be even harder to catch than in previous races there.

Some others to watch out for this weekend would have to be the #22 of Kurt Busch, who won here in ’05 and ’07, the #14 of Tony Stewart, who won in ’03 and ’09, and #99, Carl Edwards who won in ’05 and ’08. The almost winner of the past two races in 2011, Dale Earnhardt Jr, has an average finish here of 17.9. However, prior to last week’s second place finish, his average finish at Kansas was 19.1. Also, his average finish during the shifting days at Pocono was 14th.

All in all, it should be a good race this weekend. With the return of shifting, there will likely be some engine failures at a track that is already known for stressing the engine builders out. That is, I think, the main reason why Hamlin will not win this weekend. He probably won’t blow an engine, although JGR has had their problems this year. He may, however, back off of it late in the race if some others blow theirs.

Be sure to follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Joe Gibbs Racing Faces Tough Four Races

Coming out of an up and down Coke 600, Joe Gibbs Racing is sitting in pretty good position for the season. Kyle Busch is 5th in the points standings and has two wins and Hamlin and Logano seem to have survived recent team issues and are beginning to be competitive again. And although Hamlin and Logano are outside the top ten, they are making ground. Hamlin is just 18 points out and Logano is 74 points out. Both still can make the Chase.

The next four races, however, pose quite a task for the team. Although there are bright spots, like Pocono for Hamlin, these next races have not been kind to the team as a whole. There will be JGR fans reading this that will scoff at this thought, since JGR has 6 combined wins at the next four tracks of Kansas, Pocono, Michigan, and Sonoma, but please, hear me out.

JGR has an average finish of 19th for the combined four tracks. That number may be decent for some teams, but for a top 5 team and two teams struggling to get in the top 10, they won’t get the job done. Not to mention, a return to aggravation for the 20 and 11 teams could very well be catastrophic right now.

Does this mean that success it out of the question for a few weeks? No! Only a fool would bet against Kyle Busch as long as there is gas in the car, Denny Hamlin is a virtual lock for a top 5 at Pocono, and Michigan is one of Logano’s best tracks in his young career.

What will be the test, however, is can all three of these teams put together the run they need over a stretch of races that are historically unkind to them. Especially the 11 and 20 teams that need to continue their march toward the top 10.

Although Logano’s average finish for the four races is the lowest at 22nd, Kyle Busch’s average finish of 20th is probably the most surprising. In fact, Busch’s best average finish out of the four tracks is his average of 18th at Michigan. At each of the other three he averages 20th or higher.

The coming race at Kansas is historically one of the most problematic for the JGR teams. The JGR average finish at Kansas is an unacceptable 23rd, with Hamlin averaging 18th, Busch 24th, and Logano 28th in his three visits to the 1.5 mile track.

Yes, the work will be difficult for the next four races, but don’t plan on seeing me bet against JGR. Each of the drivers, especially Busch and Hamlin, have proven that they are capable of winning anywhere. We will see if they can conquer the coming tracks en route to a possibly challenging for the championship again.

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Which Will Make The Chase, Jeff Gordon Or Denny Hamlin?

With nine Sprint Cup races in the book for 2011, the picture of which teams will compete for the 2011 Chase is quickly coming into focus. With exception of the two road courses, teams have faces each type of track that they will race on, and have had enough time to establish a foundation for the rest of the season.

There have been a few people who have had surprising success this year, some lasting and some starting to fade. The RPM duo of Almendinger and Ambrose had some initial success this year, running strong in the first few races of the year. However, now that the new has worn off, the two have had some struggles and are currently 11th and 23rd in the points respectively. They are, of course, much higher than last year, but with poor performances in the past few weeks, expect them to slide a bit more until their new teams and the RPM leadership can get some organization done that they had little time for since the team reformed late last fall.

Other surprises, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman, are having a good deal of success. Both have had little success in the past five years. Newman, in nine races, has one less top 5 finish than he accumulated in all of 2010. If he continues at this pace he will have his best season since 2003, when he finished 6th in the points. He also had 8 wins that year. Earnhardt is again driving with confidence. If Steve Letarte can keep the 88 crew “between the ditches,” victory lane will come, at least once or twice, and a Chase berth is likely.

Two drivers noticeably absent from the top ten in points are Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Both of these drivers are considered near the best in their sport, yet they are having trouble getting their footing in 2011. If you had to choose, though, which driver do you think will make the Chase?

Hamlin is currently 17th in the points, 97 points behind the leader. If Hamlin cannot gain ground in the next 10 races, he will have to rely on wins to gain a Chase berth. Of course Hamlin can move up: he is only 37 points behind Tony Stewart in 10th. Hamlin has not, however, had very many good finishes. In nine races, he only has 2 top 10’s and 1 top 5, and suspicion is now rising that communication between he and crew chief Mike Ford is sub par at best.

Gordon, 16th in points, is also well out of his comfort zone. He is accustomed to competing, if not dominating, the points standings and has better vision through his rear view mirror than his windshield. However, early successes with new crew chief Alan Gustafson give reason for optimism. Gordon has only 3 top tens, but the up side is that they were all top 5’s and one was a win. Gordon can obviously compete. If the 24 crew can avoid more wrecks and can make a few adjustments, Gordon could be tough to beat late in the season.

I believe that, if only one of the two make the Chase, it will be Jeff Gordon. Although I would never bet against Hamlin, one simply has to look at the most important relationship in the garage: the driver – crew chief relationship. Gordon’s relationship with Gustafson is just beginning and, considering their personalities and drive will likely be successful. Hamlin’s relationship with Ford, however, is declining due to aggravation and distrust from last season’s end. If Joe Gibbs and crew cannot mend this due, the 11 team is in for a long season indeed.


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Will Hendrick Motorsports Return To Domination At Martinsville?

Few tracks have been dominated by Hendrick Motorsports the past ten years like Martinsville Speedway. Out of the twenty races in the past ten years, HMS drivers have won ten. A fifty percent win percentage is not too bad. However, the only number that has dominated the past three visits to the Virginia short track has been the number eleven.

Denny Hamlin has had a firm grasp on the key to the winners circle at Martinsville Speedway the past three years, but is currently having a slow start to the 2011 season. Although he definitely knows how to win at the half mile track, one would question if his team is even on a winning path at this point in the season.

Even though the past nine races at Martinsville have been won by either Johnson or Hamlin, the current win leader there is Jeff Gordon. He may not have won there since 2005, but he does have 7 wins there and in the races since his last win there, only once did he finish outside the top five. I am certain that his new crew chief, Alan Gustafson, will be reminding him of his last second place finish to Jimmie Johnson there, in which Johnson gave him some memorable front bumper love.

Johnson may want to exact some revenge of his own. Fresh off a disappointing late race loss at Auto Club Speedway to Kevin Harvick, Johnson will undoubtedly want to return to victory lane at Martinsville. He has not won there in four races, and may be slightly remembering the view from there. I doubt that however since he has won there six times and has been quite dominant there in the past 5 years.

The other two Hendrick drivers are probably not on anyone’s favorite list this week, but should definitely be kept on any dark horse list. Mark Martin is not having a great beginning to the season, but has had some solid finishes as of late. He has not had the dominant finishes at Martinsville that Gordon and Johnson have had, but he is a two time winner there, the last win coming in 2000 while he was driving for Jack Roush.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. doesn’t top anyone’s list of Martinsville greats, nor has he won there. But at which track has he led the most laps in his NASCAR Sprint Cup career? Yep, that was an easy one, Martinsville. You read it right, he has led more at the half mile paperclip than he has led at Talladega. Of course, there are more laps in a Martinsville race than in two Talladega races, but to put it into perspective, he has led more laps there than Daytona and Richmond combined, sites of 5 of his wins. Also, the most top five finishes he has at any track is 8. He has reached that number at Talladega (5 wins), Richmond (3 wins), Daytona (2 wins), Atlanta (1 win), and, you guessed it, Martinsville.

Now, I’m definitely not making a pick for this weekend off the above paragraph alone, but I definitely think that the 48 will not be the only HMS car in the top five this weekend. The question, still, is will they again claim the Martinsville victory lane as their turf… We will know in a few days…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Who Is Up For Grabs In 2011?

Every year in NASCAR there are changes. Such is life. Each season people move from one team to another or new faces come to the Sprint Cup series from Nationwide or other forms of racing.  What will change in 2011?

After a quick look through the top drivers from last year, 2011 could prove eventful when it comes to driver moves.  At the end of 2011, eight big names are coming to the end of their contracts: Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Ryan Newman and Mark Martin.

Out of this bunch, I believe Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton are pretty well set to stay put. Hamlin is on the edge of a championship and Gibbs would probably chase any other owner away from him.  Burton is entering the last few years of his career and likely would want to end it with a top tier team, something that would not happen if he left RCR.

The only driver that will definitely be moving after Homestead is Mark Martin. With Kahne set to take his ride in 2012, most figured Martin would say farewell in 2011, a thought Martin put to rest in the off season. The question is where will he go.  Will he go back to a limited schedule?  Or will he possibly be slated to start a new car for Stewart Haas?  Only time will tell.

The other four drivers fall into two groups: those who could be moved by money, and those who could be moved for more success. Edwards and Biffle, both from the Roush Fenway stable, will most likely be the object of any possible bidding wars. Both of these drivers, especially Edwards, can still compete for championships, and will likely bring a pretty penny.

The two remaining drivers, Newman and Montoya, had some success in 2010, but both teams were inconsistent and could not make the Chase. Both of these drivers want to compete, and if inconsistency turns to stagnation, look for a change.

With any of the last four drivers moving a domino effect could open a few seats, one or two of which could always be filled by new faces. It has been two years since NASCAR had a competitive rookie, no disrespect to Kevin Conway, and several drivers, such as Trevor Bayne, Rickey Stenhouse Jr., or Steve Wallace are chomping at the bit.

2011 could also hold a move for an unknown: someone moving before their contract is up, as some have done in the past. Whoever goes wherever, movement is coming, and will hopefully provide an interesting backdrop to a blockbuster season.


Read more by Joseph Davis at The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #1- Joe Gibbs Racing

The top team going into the 2011 season has to be Joe Gibbs Racing. Of course Denny Hamlin somewhat fell apart the last three races and Kyle Busch wasn't competitive in the Chase, but trust me. I'm sure Mr Gibbs knows he has some mending to do on the 11 team and needs to hit the reset button on the 18, but he is Joe Gibbs.

The driver I think Gibbs is most excited about heading into Daytona is Joey Logano. The 20 car headed into Homestead with quite a run. The 5 finishes prior to the finale were 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th then 3rd. I think the Harvicks may have awakened a new frontrunner. Look for Logano to expand on his success from the end of 2010 and even grab a couple of wins. Although I don't feel he is quite ready for a true championship run, look out in 2012.

The most disappointed driver in the Gibbs stable this December was not Hamlin, it was Kyle Busch. Besides the facts that he had the lowest average finish out of the Gibbs drivers, he never really competed for the championship in 2010. He had some great runs, including three wins, but the season was very up and down. For example, in the Chase, Busch had 3 top tens, but also had three finishes worse than 30th. Look for some new consistency from Busch in 2011. If he can combine consistency with a few wins, he could once again be a charger in the Chase.

The end of 2010 was heartbreaking for Hamlin. Hamlin only had three finishes outside the top ten in the Chase, but two of them came in the las two races, ripping the Sprint Cup from Hamlin's grasp. Many people have made much fuss over unhappiness between Hamlin and his crew chief, Mike Ford, over poor adjustments at the end of the season and some remarks he made about Jimmie Johnson. In 2011 Hamlin will come out of the gates as hard nosed and charging as ever and will come close to his eight wins in 2010. Hamlin will, however, have to focus more on Chase tracks to ensure top five finishes at the end of the season.

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Can The Dale Jr. And Kyle Busch Feud Reignite In 2011?

For years now, NASCAR has longed for some anger, discontent, envy and spite.  In short: Rivalry.  They even came out with "have at it boys" for the same reason.  The 2nd biggest sport in America that has spent the last 10 years becoming more homogenized or politically correct now wants the opposite.  What they need is a good, heated rivalry.
A few years ago, with the move of Kyle Busch from Hendrick Motorsports to make room for Dale Earnhardt Jr, many around NASCAR believed a rivalry had been born.  With Busch's front bumper laying waste to Earnhardt Jr's 88 later that year, "JR Nation" would have agreed.
Although there is no love lost between the fans of these two drivers, a true rivalry never came to fruition.  This is partly due to Jr having not been that competitive the last few years.  Now, however, both drivers desperately need a boost.
Earnhardt Jr may now have his boost, or at least Jr fans hope so, as he now has a new and proven Crew Chief.  He will also be housed in the same garage as Jimmie Johnson.  Such changes must produce at least minimal success.
Busch however is entering a new period of his career.  Although it was thought he would become the "Top Dog" at Gibbs with Stewart leaving, it seems as though he is now being eclipsed by Denny Hamlin.  As for 2010, Busch did have 3 wins, but his average finish in the last 5 races was 21st, a humbling number for Busch.  At times toward the end of the season, his frustration was palpable.
Busch does, however, have one of the greatest motivators in his corner with Joe Gibbs.  Although 2010 has been less than acceptable for Busch, rest assured he will come out fighting in 2011.  I am sure the success of his teammate Hamlin will not sit right with him and his success in 2011 would definitely create a spark in the JR. fan base.
Let's hope the two of these can bee more competitive in 2011, NASCAR has plenty to lose if they don't!

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