Drivers To Watch In The Daytona 500

With all of NASCAR's rule changes enveloped in a new car design, this year's Daytona 500 is full of uknowns.  The cars will all be bunched up again into large packs, but the ability of cars to drive up and side draft alone may be greater than it has in years.  With a change in maneuverability and the abandoning of 2 car drafts, it will be each driver for himself (or herself, of course) for more than the last few hundred yards.

This new car design and how it affects the cars in the draft at 195 mph has changed how most drivers view the race.  Some, such as Carl Edwards, say the racing is much more fun.  But others may be unsure about their chances and their strategies entering NASCAR's premier event because they have either never raced this style of restrictor plate racing or they had minimal experience with it prior to the 2 car tandem racing that developed after the COT was put in place.

The wild and aggressive style of racing from this car definitely lends itself to drivers like Kevin Harvick who has won the Sprint Unlimited and his Gatorade Duel.  Also benefited by this style would be drivers like Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Greg Biffle, all who like aggressive racing and are very good at handling cars that are moving around.

Some of the drivers who had plenty of experience and success at the old plate racing style, such as Gordon, Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip, may do well due to their experience at sensing the momentum of various lines and working their way to the front of a pack.  However, Waltrip has had much less seat time in recent years due to his semi-retirement, Earnhardt Jr. has not been pleased with his car's ability it pull up to cars in front of him, and Gordon has not won at a Daytona since 2005 and has an average finish of 20.8 since then.

There are a few new drivers who may do well this weekend.  All of the media's attention is on rookie of the year candidate Danica Patrick for getting the pole for this weeks race.  She does have a very fast car, but more attention should definitely be paid to drivers such as Austin Dillon who finished 3rd in his Gatorade Duel behind Kyle Busch and Kasey Kahne.  In that race he had an impressive driver rating of 111 due to his ability to not only finish near the front, but to have maintained that position most of the race.  Also, Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne was quite strong in his Gatorade Duel, leading most of the race prior to wrecking.  If the 21 crew has a strong backup, Bayne may be seen near the front at the end of Sunday's race.

On particular driver who be a bit of a sentimental favorite for many this week is Mark Martin.  Martin has said he does not plan to come back next year for Michael Waltrip, and although he may still drive a limited schedule, the likelihood he will be in a top tier, or near top tier, ride at Daytona in the future is slim to none.  After coming close so many times, it would be great to see him finally win on NASCAR's largest stage.

Whoever wins Sunday, you can guarantee their will be plenty of passes, some extremely fast racing, and yes, some large wrecks.  As drivers are just becoming accustomed to the Gen 6 car's handling and how the drafts and "air bubbles" are being affected, as we have seen in the past week, there will be plenty of torn up cars going back to the garage. 

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Get Set!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 1st - 5th

As the Chase quickly approaches, many drivers are getting ready to prepare for 2013.  They will not be "in the hunt", so they are either preparing with their team for a stronger run next year, or are preparing for a new ride to start speedweeks at Daytona.

The Chase drivers, on the other hand, are preparing to put their best foot forward on the first Chase race.  Not wanting to fall behind and give up a chance at a Championship, drivers will be looking to make statements at the 1.5 mile Chicagoland Speedway.  Whether they will step out ahead or not, these 5 drivers are starting out front on their way to the Sprint Cup:

5th - Greg Biffle: In many ways, 2012 has been a season of renewal for Biffle and the 16 team.  They have led more laps this year than any season since '06.  They have remained in or close to the top 3 in points for most of the regular season.  And the 16 team has not finished the season in the top 5 since 2008 and have never had an average finish better than 11.9 (their current average for the '12 season is 9.7).

To have a chance at winning the Sprint Cup, Biffle will have to produce on his strong suits, the 1.5 mile downforce tracks and the Monster Mile of Dover.  If he can pop of a win or two, look for him to be close to the top entering Homestead, a track where he has 3 wins.  The 'Biff' has an average finish of 15.9 and 10 wins at the 10 Chase tracks.

4th - Brad Keselowski: Making his second Chase appearance in just 3 full time Sprint Cup seasons, Keselowski has definitely made his place amoung the top tier drivers.  He has 3 wins this year and is more than capable of winning a few more prior to Homestead.  Along with his ability to stay up front, the 2 team has also shown that they and their driver are willing to do whatever is needed to win, a trait that may serve them well when the points battle gets close at the end.

The downside for the 2 team is that Keselowski only has good history at a few of the Chase tracks.  Don't get me wrong, he is more than capable of winning at all of them, he just has poor average finishes at most of them.  His strong tracks are definitely Talladega and Kansas.  Keselowski's average finish at the Chase tracks is 17.1 and he has 3 wins on those tracks.

3rd - Tony Stewart: This year Stewart is entering the Chase in 3rd and not quite as unsure as he was last year when he dominated the Chase with 5 wins.  However, although Stewart has more top 5's this year than the previous two, he only has two more top 10's than top 5's.  What that means is that if Stewart has a good car and a good setup, he can compete and will finish within sight of the lead.  If he does not, he is not getting to the top 10.  Translation: Stewart could break out with multiple wins, or he could struggle with poor setups.

Nobody, though, should count the 14 out of the Championship.  2011 should serve as plenty reminder that Stewart may be down but is never 'out'.  Stewart, after all, is known for being at mid-late season driver.  He does not, however, have Darian Grubb who helped him win the Cup last year.  Stewart has an average finish of 12.5 and 21 wins on the Chase tracks.

2nd - Jimmie Johnson: Another Chase and another attempt at a Championship for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew.  Johnson has shown this year, again, that he wins the big races, and once he is out front he is hard to catch.  Johnson has had three wins so far, and is unlikely to go winless in the Chase.  Johnson has NEVER gone winless in the final 10 races of the year in his Sprint Cup career.

Winning or not, Johnson cannot be counted out of the Chase picture.  He has plenty of ability to win, let alone his proven history with Crew Chief Knaus at the Chase tracks from which to draw information.  Johnson has an average finish of 10th and 31 wins at the Chase tracks.

1st - Denny Hamlin: After not being able to back up his 2010 performance last year, Hamlin has been able to slowly build this year to the point that he is the Chase frontrunner.  Hamlin has had an up and down 2012, but with a few wins and more consistently running at or near the front over the summer, Hamlin is hitting his stride at just the right time.

One of Hamlin's biggest strengths this year is the addition of last years Cup winning Crew Chief, Darian Grubb.  Grubb may well be out for some 'how do you like me now' and Hamlin would be more than happy to help him out.  What Hamlin will be sure to look out for is a momentum trip up like he had near the end of the 2010 Chase.  Hamlin has an average finish of 13.4 and 10 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Is Kenseth's 2012 A Replay Of Edwards In 2011?

Another Sprint Cup season for Roush Fenway Racing and again they have a couple of drivers in serious contention to win the Sprint Cup Championship.  Last year, Carl Edwards started the season strong.  He won at Las Vegas and quickly rose to the top of the Sprint Cup points standings.  This year, both Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth have had the points lead, which is currently Kenseth's.

However, soon conversations in 2011 began to focus on the fact that Carl Edwards was a man without a contract.  His contract with RFR was to end and the finish of the 2011 season, and much speculation was given to the possibility of him leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing.  For weeks reporters would ask Carl if he would be driving a orange toyota in 2012, and for weeks they would get his patented smile and a kind comment about RFR working on a contract.

The questions were soon answered as the summer began to end, and Edwards and the 99 crew were able to finish the season out with a tie for the points lead which resulted in a second place finish (due to a tie-breaker rule.)  However, Edwards did not dominate any more races and had no wins, in the Chase or otherwise, after his one early-season win at Las Vegas.  Had he won ONE more race he would have won the Championship.  Period.

Now, in 2012, rumors have been swirling around Kenseth's future.  His RFR contract is over at season's end, and many have wondered if he would leave his long-time home.  Now, this week Roush reports that defending Nationwide Series champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be replacing Kenseth at RFR in the 2013 season.  Will Kenseth be driving a Toyota in 2013?  Will he bring Ford back to Penske Racing?  We will likely know by week's end.

What we do know is that for a second year in a row, Roush has a driver who is hot and contending for a championship, yet they are unsure about their future.  Yes, Edwards did have a successful year in 2011, but few would doubt that he could have won another race had contract talks been completed prior to the 2011 season, which would have led to his first championship.  Add on top of that, Kenseth will be dealing with going to a new team, who will be his crew chief, who will be his sponsor, etc, and the likelihood that the 17 will be celebrating after Homestead becomes low.

Either Roush has the worst timing and luck in the NASCAR garage, or someone seriously needs to question their wisdom about personnel management.  Had Edwards won the 2011 championship, sponsorship and money woes would have undoubtedly been less of a strain in 2012, and he may have kept the Cup another year.

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Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

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Great Restarts, For Vegas And Biffle

The 2012 Kobalt Tools 400 in Las Vegas this weekend had some great racing.  Although there was not as much side by side racing in Vegas as there may have been in the past, the competitive restarts were enough to make up for it.  Seeing the Sprint Cup drivers slinging it three wide at the start finish line and having cars rubbing bumpers and fenders is the best way to see drivers easing into their 2012 season.

No, there were no jet driers exploding in flames, and the only fuel mileage issue was when Brad Keselowski had fuel pump issues after stretching his fuel.  I, for one, am glad not to see jet driers.  Although as a firefighter I did enjoy watching the flames at Daytona, whilst screaming "Put foam on it!!" while the fire crew extinguished the flames slowly, I think we have all seen enough rain delayed races to hold us until at least Darlington.  They did move it back to Labor Day weekend right??  No?  Well they should!!

This weekends race saw two drivers coming back from a rough 2012 start.  Tony Stewart, the winner of this weeks race, had a horrible week last week with a engineering issue relegating him to a 22nd place finish at Phoenix, and started the season with two finishes outside the top 15.  Although many people felt Stewart would cool off a bit, at least in the near term, with a crew chief change (he replaced Darian Grubb with Steve Addington in the offseason), two bad finishes to start the season after winning 3 of the final 4 races of 2011 would have been though a stretch.  Stewart dominated the end of Sunday's race at Las Vegas, however, so he and Addington may be warming up quicker than most thought.

Jimmie Johnson, after wrecking on the second lap of the Daytona 500 and finishing 42nd, found out a week later that he would probably be without his crew chief, Chad Knaus, for 6 races and down 25 more points to the field of Sprint Cup teams vying for this years Chase.  He did, however, get a great 4th place finish at Phoenix, but during final practice at Las Vegas, Johnson hit the wall and began warming up his backup car to start at the rear on Sunday.  Before half way through the 400 mile race, the 48 had made its way to the front and at the end of the race was just shy of Stewarts pace to the finish line. 

Probably the best restart going on in NASCAR at the moment is the restart occurring in the #16 garage.  Although Biffle is always a possible front runner on any given weekend, his end to the 2011 season was weak to say the least.  His 2011 season in general was out of character for the Vancouver, WA driver, as he posted only 3 top 5 finishes for the year and no wins.  During the offseason, no team has turned around as well as the RFR #16 bunch.  Although they have not posted a win in the first three races, they have already tied their top 5 mark from 2012 with 3, scoring a 3rd place finish in each race.  Biffle has also not started outside the top 10, which is great for a driver who is known for driving harder when he can see the leader.

Whatever the 3M RFR team is doing, it is working!

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The 2011 Chase: Who’s Down, Who’s Out?

With the “Race To The Chase” well underway, much speculation has been given to who will be in the Chase, and who will be relegated to “also ran” for the rest of the season. So, since we have a week without a race and no driver spats to talk about, let’s take a look at who is in, who is struggling, and who is out.

The “In’s” are definitely not a mathematical lock at this point, but one should not bet against them. The top 7 drivers, Edwards, Johnson, Ku. Busch, Harvick, Ky. Busch, Kenseth and Gordon, are well out of reach as long as no major catastrophe occurs. Gordon is only a point ahead of 8th place Newman, but given the fact that he has an average finish of 12.4 at the 7 remaining tracks prior to the Chase cut-off, he should easily end up in the top 10.

The “Out’s” are those from 16th and below. I know there are those of you who say that the wild card rule contradicts this prediction, but hear me out. Without a huge points gain or another win by Keselowski (almost a 50 point deficit behind 15th place), or multiple wins by others in the next 7 races, most likely the two wild cards are currently within the top 15. There should be little doubt that a win will come from Stewart, Biffle, Kahne or Bowyer in the next 7 races.

Along with Keselowski, the other drivers just outside the top 15 all seem to be fizzling out. Mark Martin is having trouble getting inside the top 10, Ambrose and Almendinger, although better than 2010, are consistently inconsistent, and Martin Truex Jr. has yet to post a top 5 finish.

Of those who are left, positions 8 through 15, two are definitely not “Down.” Without a string of bad luck, Hamlin and Stewart have some of their best tracks ahead and should be inside the top 10 by the checkered flag at Richmond. They have overall average finishes for the next 7 tracks of 13th and 12th respectively ranking 3rd and 1st among the 7th-15th place drivers. Keep in mind that one or two DNF’s could throw all of this out the window.

Out of the other 6 drivers, Newman, Earnhardt Jr., Bowyer, Ragan, Kahne, and Biffle, the last 3 are definitely in need of a win to make the Chase. Outside some major DNF’s, these drivers will not be making an appearance in the top 10, so entrance into the Chase is definitely dependant on getting one of the two wild card spots. Ragan is the only one of these that currently has a win and, as long as he stays in the top 15 in points, should get a wild card.

That leaves Newman, Earnhardt, and Bowyer to fight for the remaining spot in the top 10. The stress is definitely lessened on Newman now that he has a win and could get a wild card spot, but don’t plan on seeing him lay down. Earnhardt Jr.’s recent slide has prompted several commentators to say he is finished. They point to the next 3 races, Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, as his Waterloo and say he will not recover in time to make the top 10. If they are correct, the only other way for Junior to make the Chase is if he is 11th in points and Ragan is the only driver from 11th-20th with a win.

If each of the 7th-15th place drivers finished their average finish at the next 7 tracks, here is what the points will look like after Richmond:

7th- Gordon
8th- Stewart
9th- Hamlin
10th- Newman
11th- Earnhardt Jr.
12th- Bowyer
13th- Biffle
14th- Kahne
15th- Ragan

Should be a tight race for the last 4 spots so bring on Indy!

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Danica To The Lead, In Silly Season

While the 2011-2012 Silly Season is in full swing, it has, to this point, been less than dramatic. The main players (Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, and Mark Martin) have either already signed with their current team or aren’t generating much buzz. That is, with exception to Carl Edwards.

Edwards’ contract with Jack Roush and Roush Fenway Racing comes to a close at the end of 2011, and although most people have all but signed the contract for him, Edwards is still a free agent…kind of. He is weighing his options, yet few people think he would leave a team that has made him a contender for a few years now. Be that as it may, his top suitor, Joe Gibbs Racing according to rumors, will continue to gain his attention.

While all of this has been slowly developing, Danica Patrick has been fulfilling her obligations to Andretti Autosport in the Indy Car series, until Friday night. She returned Friday to race in the Nationwide Series race at Daytona International speedway for JRMotorsports.

When she raced there in February, Patrick was timid at best in the two car packs. Although she managed a respectable 14th place finish there, she wowed few. However, in this week’s race Patrick seemed aggressive and comfortable. She was even more comfortable for all of the off-track conversation.

Patrick has been asked before whether she will move from Indy Car to a full time NASCAR ride, a topic she has kept at arms length. This week, though, she simply reacted as if the intention is there but the deal just has not been signed. If she is truly interested in a 2012 ride, the season will definitely get silly.

Danica is no doubt one of the best marketing opportunities that has come to NASCAR in quite a while, but to this point had not proven herself worthy of a full time ride and a shot at a Sprint Cup ride in the future. Although I am sure any team would have jumped at signing her, she is much more profitable to them if she is contending for wins.

In 2010 she had only one finish inside the top 20, often finishing several laps behind the leaders. Yet in 2011, it seems as though Patrick has gotten more comfortable with both the different car and the different style of racing. In only 6 races she has posted 3 top 10 finishes and has only one finish outside the top 20. That is definitely a turnaround from a year ago.

The main question that will have to be answered is where will she go? JRMotorsports would surely be glad to sign her for a full season in the Nationwide Series for 2012, but they do not have a Sprint Cup team, which she will probably want for at least a few races in 2012. No matter where she goes, plan on hearing about it for the rest of this year.

Oh yea, has Carl Edwards signed yet??

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Infineon To Daytona, One Wild Card After Another

This past weekend, NASCAR visited one of its two road courses. Entering Sonoma, California, most people understood that there were those who would benefit from the road course weekend, and, conversely, those that would suffer. I am sure there aren’t many people who thought Dale Earnhardt Jr. would come though the weekend with a great finish, although 41st was a bit low. Also, most people expected Marcos Ambrose, who now sits 2 points outside the top 20, to have a good weekend.

Great. We are all psychic.

Not so fast. Infineon threw some curves at the Sprint Cup field that may not have been expected. Some people left Infineon with poor finishes that were somewhat surprising.

After several instances of contact between Tony Stewart and Brian Vickers, both were relegated to bad finishes. Although Vickers is a good road course racer and Stewart is one of the all time greats, both left California with fewer points than they probably expected.

Along with Stewart and Vickers, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Mark Martin all left with sub-par finishes. Each of these drivers have some ability on road courses, especially Montoya, Martin and Kahne, but have to pick up points somewhere else in the next 10 races in an attempt to make the Chase.

Although the restrictor plate tracks are often seen as wild card races, Infineon has now placed several teams on the offensive in preparation for the Chase. Now, with all of that “cooking”, we head to, yes, a restrictor plate track.

The summer race at Daytona is always stressful for the teams on the cusp of the Chase, as they can be wiped out in the “big one” at any time. Will the teams leave Daytona jumbled up as they were this Monday? Time will tell.

Another question heading to Daytona is what other surprises the track will hold. Each year the Coke Zero 400, customarily held on July 4th weekend, is run on a slightly different track than its sister race, the Daytona 500. The hot, humid summer nights of central Florida usually produce a track with slightly less grip than the February race.

Normally, in the past few years, this has led to a slight stringing out of the field. However, with the repaving of the track during the last off-season, one has to wonder exactly how similar will the track be to the February’s running. Will the “two car tango” work the same way it did earlier in the year, or will the cars have trouble linking up later in a run.

My last question is who is the favorite heading into this weekend? Obviously the Daytona 500 winner, Trevor Bayne, will be without his ride from February, since the winning 500 car is placed in Daytona USA for a year. Even more, no driver has won the Daytona 500 and the July 400 mile race in the same year since 1982.

Certainly Earnhardt Jr. will loom large on everyone’s radar, but who else should be watched this weekend?

Two drivers that immediately come to mind are Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. Stewart has done very well in summer Daytona races, winning 3 in the last 6. He drafts well, thrives under the lights, and apparently thinks the July 4th post race fireworks are for him. Edwards has zero wins at Daytona, but finished 2nd and 6th in the two previous restrictor plate races this year, so he apparently loves the Tango.

Calm down ladies… I meant the Two Car Tango…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Early Points: Surprises High And Low

Yes, yes, I know, it is way too early to get caught up in any discussion about points standings with only three races in the books for 2011. Too bad, I will anyway. The reason being, there are several drivers who are surprisingly high and several who are surprisingly low, even after only three races. Although there is much time, and assuredly the top ten staples will return to the top ten for the most part, with the new points system and so many changes in NASCAR, any differences should be noted and watched.

In any off season predictions of this years Chase contenders, you would have found Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, and Kevin Harvick. You also probably saw Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, and Clint Boyer. The average current points position for these seven drivers is 25.7 and they are an average 52 points behind leader Kurt Busch. Now, under the old system, 52 points would not be much, but in the current system, those are comparable to about 200 points in the old system.

Being behind that far and winning the championship has not happened since Terry Labonte in 1996. Labonte was 211 points behind Dale Jarrett in the old point system after Richmond (the third race that year.) However, that was due mostly to Jarrett’s dominating start to the season. That year, he began with one win and three straight top five finishes and was 86 points ahead of second place Jeff Burton. Also, with the implementation of the “Chase”, a huge lead shrinks quite quickly.

With that said, these seven drivers definitely know that they need some good runs and they need them now! Look for these drivers to have a good deal of damage to their front bumper and right side as they root their way to the front at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The surprises near the top of the points standings are none other than Juan Pablo Montoya, Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Although a few predictions may have had Montoya and Earnhardt Jr. in their top twelve for the Chase, I doubt any of those prognosticators would have thought Junior and Montoya would have had such good finishes so early in the season.

None of the predictors would have picked Menard and Allmendiger for the top ten, and definitely not so early. With Menard starting a new team at RCR and Allmendinger racing for a rebuilt RPM, the two drivers would have been happy with mid-teen consistent finishes at this point. Yet they have been competitive in the top ten and near the top five at each track so far.

Of course, the one factor yet to play its little hand in the stats of this blog post has yet to rear its head. Time. A few races will make much clear. Will the perennial favorites move back up with a few good finishes? Or will the surprises at the top trip over a couple of disappointing finishes and not regain their current composure?

That, friends, is why we turn the racing on each and every week!


See more from Joseph Davis at The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Who Is Up For Grabs In 2011?

Every year in NASCAR there are changes. Such is life. Each season people move from one team to another or new faces come to the Sprint Cup series from Nationwide or other forms of racing.  What will change in 2011?

After a quick look through the top drivers from last year, 2011 could prove eventful when it comes to driver moves.  At the end of 2011, eight big names are coming to the end of their contracts: Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Ryan Newman and Mark Martin.

Out of this bunch, I believe Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton are pretty well set to stay put. Hamlin is on the edge of a championship and Gibbs would probably chase any other owner away from him.  Burton is entering the last few years of his career and likely would want to end it with a top tier team, something that would not happen if he left RCR.

The only driver that will definitely be moving after Homestead is Mark Martin. With Kahne set to take his ride in 2012, most figured Martin would say farewell in 2011, a thought Martin put to rest in the off season. The question is where will he go.  Will he go back to a limited schedule?  Or will he possibly be slated to start a new car for Stewart Haas?  Only time will tell.

The other four drivers fall into two groups: those who could be moved by money, and those who could be moved for more success. Edwards and Biffle, both from the Roush Fenway stable, will most likely be the object of any possible bidding wars. Both of these drivers, especially Edwards, can still compete for championships, and will likely bring a pretty penny.

The two remaining drivers, Newman and Montoya, had some success in 2010, but both teams were inconsistent and could not make the Chase. Both of these drivers want to compete, and if inconsistency turns to stagnation, look for a change.

With any of the last four drivers moving a domino effect could open a few seats, one or two of which could always be filled by new faces. It has been two years since NASCAR had a competitive rookie, no disrespect to Kevin Conway, and several drivers, such as Trevor Bayne, Rickey Stenhouse Jr., or Steve Wallace are chomping at the bit.

2011 could also hold a move for an unknown: someone moving before their contract is up, as some have done in the past. Whoever goes wherever, movement is coming, and will hopefully provide an interesting backdrop to a blockbuster season.


Read more by Joseph Davis at The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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