Biggest Surprise And Biggest Dissapointment Of 2013

With every coming season, pundits and fans alike have their preconceptions about how the season will go.  Who will be strong?  Who will be looking for a ride at the end of the year?  And will any newcomers stake out their place at the table?

This year had many story lines, and as I included in my previous post, some of them were not so good for NASCAR as a whole.  One definite story line throughout the season was the constant ups and downs of the Penske Racing Miller Lite team and their driver Brad Keselowski. 

In 2012, the 2 team won 5 races, 2 of which came in the Chase.  They never fell below 12th in the points after the Talladega spring race, which began their gradual climb to the top.  And finally, the Miller Lite team had no DNF's after the first race of the year.  As a whole, the team was consistent, communicated efficiently, and was constantly a threat to win.

After all the banquets, parties, and appearances on late night talk shows, Keselowski and Penske Racing began the process of changing over to Ford from the departing Dodge Racing.  All seemed well as the season began: Keselowski opened up with 4 straight top 4 finishes and 7 top 10's out of the first 8 races. 

Then came Richmond.

Keselowski finished the 3/4 mile track 8 laps down and in 33rd position.  All seemed fine from the outside, but problems adjusting to the new Ford front for the Gen 6 car and other engineering changes for Ford power plants no doubt added to bad luck.  Over the next few races and then during the summer run up to the Chase, the 2 team had 3 top 5 finishes and 4 top 10's in 17 races.  In 2012 they had 2 wins, 8 top 5's, and 11 top 10's over the same stretch.

The frustration was clear.  Team radio chatter showed a break down in communication almost on a weekly basis.  Despite their best efforts, the Miller Lite team came up shy of the Chase cutoff and could not defend their championship, earning them the "Biggest Disappointment" title for 2013.

Entering speedweeks in 2013, most people took for granted that the dominant teams of the season would be, as always, the Hendrick, Roush, Penske, Gibbs, Stewart-Haas and Childress teams, perhaps adding some success by Michael Waltrip Racing.  Although many people in and out of the garage had and will have respect for the driving abilities of Kurt Busch, successfully driving a single car team to the Chase was not thought of as a probability.

2013 would prove interesting for the Furniture Row Racing team.  Their new driver, fresh off season a season of aggravation driving for Phoenix Racing, was coming into the season with the knowledge that if he did not succeed with the 78, and did not do so without controversial on or off track events, he may well be finished.  That is, at least, for the top tier teams.

This season saw some of the brash older Busch, but never crossing the line, always careful to stay away from the press when he couldn't control his tongue.  On track, Busch was back to his old form.  He didn't quite pull off a win for FRR, but a Chase berth for a single car team is just shy of a championship.  After 1 top 5 finish and 5 top 10's for Phoenix Racing, Busch posted 11 top 5's and 16 top 10's in the 78, including 3 top 5's in the Chase.

Although he has gone winless for two straight seasons now, Busch did win a ride for a top tier team, Stewart Haas Racing, and along with it, the "Biggest Surprise" title for the 2013 season.

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'01 Til Now, With Dale Earnhardt...

This week marks 12 years since the 2001 Daytona 500 which ended in the tragic death of NASCAR great Dale Earnhardt.  In the wake of Earnhardt's death, NASCAR embarked on the largest safety renovation in its history, resulting in the safety of the sport in 2013.  After NASCAR celebrated the coming Daytona 500 with a remebrance of Dale Earnhardt, one must think about what might have been.

How would the sport have progressed in the past 12 years had Earnhardt not died?  Would safety measures have been made and what other differences would their be?  Lets take a look back at how the past 12 years would have been with Dale Earnhardt around.

Imagine the victory lane celebration February 18, 2001 when Michael Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Dale Earnhardt finished 1, 2, 3.  Earnhardt now has an established NASCAR Cup Series team, capable of winning and competing each week.  He just finished second in the points in 2000 and is on the upswing again in his career.  After winning a couple races in 2001 he finishes a close second to Jeff Gordon in the 2001 Cup Championship.

In the next couple of years, driver injuries and another driver death add to the recent deaths of Kenny Irwin and Adam Petty to force NASCAR into further safety measures.  Only a handful of drivers still use open-faced helmets, but all drivers use some form of head and neck restraining device.  NASCAR is also developing safety measure in the cars to absorb more force on impact.

After finishing 5th in the 2002 Cup Series Championship points, Dale Earnhardt decides to retire after the 2003 season.  Dale Jr. finished the 2002 season 3rd in points propelling him to a Championship challenge in 2003.  New talk by NASCAR about a wider, taller, safer car with identical front ends for all manufacturers is met by contention from NASCAR veterans.  NASCAR adapts the front ends to incorporate more brand identity.

In 2004 Dale Earnhardt joins Darrell Waltrip in the broadcasting booth for a few races to add commentary, but decides against a long term contract citing too much hot air in the booth coming from Waltrip as a reason to stay on pit road.  With late season coaching from his father, Dale Jr. wins the 2004 Championship, giving DEI its first Championship and the Earnhardt family its eighth. 

Over the next few years NASCAR sees many changes amongst teams.  There is an addition of a 4th DEI team, as Earnhardt has recruited Tony Stewart away from Joe Gibbs Racing, making the DEI stable every bit as strong as NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports.  Hendrick, losing hardheaded driver Kyle Busch to JGR, adds newcomer Juan Pablo Montoya from F1 in a single car partnership with Chip Ganassi and adds Mark Martin from Jack Roush's stable, outbidding startup owner Ginn Racing.

Heading into the current decade, NASCAR has now begun to eclipse the NFL in total market share, and continues to expand into new markets, despite a steep downturn in the economy.  However, fans still appreciate NASCAR's roots, such as its annual Labor Day weekend at the Southern 500 at Darlington, South Carolina.

No, that is not how things turned out, and probably light years from how it may have happened, but one could definitely see how the sport would have been different had the '01 500 ended differently.  Dale Earnhardt was a huge part of the sport's success, not always perfect, but always a part of the conversation.  No doubt NASCAR would be different, but one can only speculate in what ways.

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2012: In With A Bang, Out With A Kes

NASCAR's 2012 Sprint Cup season is over and gone, but before we begin to speculate about what may be for 2013, lets take one last look at the wild ride that was the 2012 season.

The 2012 season story began with several before/after stories.  To begin, Kyle Busch, a perennial threat with the ability to win every week, won the Budweiser Shootout.  Many people would have thought the 18 bunch could have put together a strong run this year, but shortly into the season their wheels would fall off.  He did manage a points win at Richmond, but that would be all for him in 2012, his lowest win total since 2007.

The next before and after story would have to be the before and after photos of Daytona International Speedway after Juan Pablo Montoya played demolition derby with a jet dryer.  Fortunately nobody was hurt, but the ensuing fire and inspection of the track caused the Daytona 500 to end well into the night.

Another early season story we saw was Matt Kenseth's dominance.  He won the Daytona 500 and ended up the points leader by mid season, but his contract talks with Roush Fenway Racing fell apart.  Probably the largest blunder RFR has made, Kenseth ended up signing to drive for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, effectively ending the teams ability to race for the 2012 championship.

Returning to challenge for the Sprint Cup points lead this year was driver 88, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  After beginning the year with a large stretch of top 10 runs, he finally returned to victory lane at Michigan with a dominating performance.  Although he did reach the points lead briefly during the summer, his season slowed after an initial concussion at a Kansas tire test in August, then totally stopped with a second concussion and ensuing 2 week break at Talladega. 

One of the most entertaining stories of the season was the tension and on-track altercation between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer.  After consistent contact between the 15 and 24 for a couple races, Gordon finally had all he could handle and wrecked Bowyer during the final laps of the Phoenix Chase race, effectively ending Bowyer's chances at winning the championship.  The ensuing melee in the garage area brought about probations and fines a plenty and added to the drama when the two drivers finished first and second in the season ending race at Homestead.  I doubt the two will be drafting partners at Daytona come February.

The final story of the season came down to Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson.  Many people wondered whether the young driver could handle the pressure and hold back the five time champion for the 2012 Sprint cup, but as the end of the Chase grew closer, it was Johnson, Knaus, and the 48 crew that did not stand up to the pressure.  Keselowski obtained the points lead after a misstep by the Lowe's team at Phoenix and did not let it go.

The stories of the 2012 season were plenty and were fun to follow.  There were great races, a good Chase, and even some altercations in the garage.  Here's hoping the 2013 season will rise to the occasion.

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On Your Mark!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 6th-12th

Now that all of the jockeying for a Chase spot is over, the attention of twelve drivers will turn toward the final ten races of the year.  As the Chase is complete with downforce tracks, a restrictor plate track, a short track, a concrete track, a flat track, and the one of a kind Homestead, a well rounded racer should do well.  However, with only 10 races to go, and every point important, a driver with the ability to finish well every week will be hard to beat as well.

12th - Jeff Gordon: Gordon made his way into this year's Chase with a great finish at Richmond after struggling early.  Although this team needed help from a bad finish by the 18 team to make the Chase, don't count them out easily.  Gordon is a 4 time champ, is the most winning active driver, and is always capable of hitting a hot streak.  Gordon averages a 12.2 place finish at the 10 tracks and has 31 wins on them.

11th - Kasey Kahne: The 5 team made the Chase with Kahne in their first year together due, in large part, to Kahne's strong wins early in the season.  Although Kahne has not been unstopable during the summer, he has maintained a strong team and his two wins solidified their Chase spot.  Kahne has never excelled at the Chase, his best finish being 8th, but he has also not competed in the Chase in a Hendrick car.  Kahne has an average finish of 16.3 with 7 wins at the Chase tracks.

10th - Martin Truex Jr.: How this team made the Chase with such strong runs and did not win, I do not know, but nevertheless, they are in and looking for a win.  Truex has never finished in the top 10 in the Sprint Cup Series, but don't count this team out.  They have been consistent all season and should have a good showing.  Truex has an average finish of 15.7 with his only career win coming at the Chase track of Dover.

9th - Kevin Harvick: Will the 29 team's crew chief change make a big enough difference for them to have a productive Chase?  Only time will tell.  Harvick does have some unfinished business in the Chase after coming in third the past two years, but with zero wins on the year, finishing the season out with a couple of wins to head into 2013 may be a more realistic goal.  Harvick has an average finish of 13.7 and has 8 wins at the Chase tracks.

8th - Matt Kenseth: After being at the points lead for much of the season, Kenseth dropped to 8th due to only producing one win in the regular season.  Although the team said Kenseth's coming departure to Joe Gibbs Racing would not be a distraction, competitiveness has tapered off in the past few weeks.  Kenseth could do well in the Chase, but with RFR preparing for Stenhouse Jr. to take over that ride and Kenseth preparing commercialse for his new sponsor for next year (Home Depot), it is not likely.  Kenseth has an average finish of 14.8 and has 8 wins at Chase tracks.

7th - Dale Earnhardt Jr.:  Dale Jr. enters the Chase in 7th place, the exact same spot he finished last year.  Although he has an average finish of 16.6 at the Chase tracks, he has 10 wins on them.  He only posted one top 5 in last year's chase, but with an average finish of 6.1 on downforce tracks this season, his 2012 Chase is bound to be more productive.

6th - Clint Bowyer:  In his first year in a MWR Toyota, Bowyer makes the Chase as one of two MWR teams in the Chase.  Although many people thought he would not do as well in his first year at a "weaker" team, his old team, RCR, is only sending one car to the Chase.  Bowyer has some good tracks in the Chase and proved with his win last weekend at Richmond that he could be a force in the Chase outcome.  Bowyer has an average finish of 14.6 and 4 wins at the Chase tracks.

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Chase 2012: 'Outwit', 'Outplay', or 'Outlast'?

With this season's up and down nature, engine's blowing, and no clear dominator, this year's Chase could be an exercise in 'Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast'.  Although there is always a possibility of someone getting on a hot streak as Tony Stewart did late in last year's Chase, the field seems very level for those who are definitely in the Chase.

Each of the past several weeks there has been one or more of this year's contenders in trouble.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. wrecked in practice, in a race, and tore up a transmission.  Johnson never seriously contended at the Glen, then blew his engine within sight of victory lane at Michigan.  Kenseth or his team, or both, are apparently looking forward to next season.  And Keselowski is now following the Hendrick cars around drooling over their 'rear ends'.  Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

The way things are shaping up, the Chase is possibly going to be a case of who stays out of trouble, dodge's wrecks, steals one with stragegy, and keeps their engines running coming out ahead of the other contenders.  With only 10 races in the Chase, one DNF can easily end a driver's chance at the Sprint Cup, especially if there are one or two drivers who are cautious and lucky enough to stay 'clean' throughout the Chase.

One thing is for sure, the race to the Chase for those contending for the two wildcard slots will come down to outwit or outplay.  Should anyone of the drivers with one win snag another victory, it could be all they need, because none of those drivers look like they could run off a string of 2 or three wins right now.

As for how the Chase has historically played out, there have been a mixture of three plots.  In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2010, the Champion would win none or one race in the Chase, and effectively 'Outlast' the field.  In each of those years, a driver other than the eventual champ would win 2 or more races in the Chase, but one or more poor performances put them in a hole too deep to win.  In 2004, in fact, Jimmie Johnson had 4 Chase wins, but could only manage to climb back to second by season's end. 

In 2007, 2009, and 2011 the Champion 'Outplayed' the field.  In each of those years the eventual winner would snag at least 4 Chase races and simply dominate the competition to the point that sheer speed won out.  And in 2008 the Championship was won by a combination of 'Outwit', 'Outlast' and 'Outplay'.  In that year, three drivers had multiple Chase wins, and two had three wins in what ended up as a virtual slugfest to the finish.  Although Carl Edwards won 3 of the final 4 races, the points Johnson had amassed in his 3 wins gave him the cushion to keep Edwards at bay for the final races.

One driver you will hear commentators say does not have the ability to hit a hot streak during the Chase is Dale Earnhardt Jr.  His best showing in the Chase races was in 2004 where he won 2 races in the final 10.  The most promising news for the 88 crew is that his performance in the 1.5 mile tracks has been solid this year, which could translate into some success in the fall.

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Is Kenseth's 2012 A Replay Of Edwards In 2011?

Another Sprint Cup season for Roush Fenway Racing and again they have a couple of drivers in serious contention to win the Sprint Cup Championship.  Last year, Carl Edwards started the season strong.  He won at Las Vegas and quickly rose to the top of the Sprint Cup points standings.  This year, both Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth have had the points lead, which is currently Kenseth's.

However, soon conversations in 2011 began to focus on the fact that Carl Edwards was a man without a contract.  His contract with RFR was to end and the finish of the 2011 season, and much speculation was given to the possibility of him leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing.  For weeks reporters would ask Carl if he would be driving a orange toyota in 2012, and for weeks they would get his patented smile and a kind comment about RFR working on a contract.

The questions were soon answered as the summer began to end, and Edwards and the 99 crew were able to finish the season out with a tie for the points lead which resulted in a second place finish (due to a tie-breaker rule.)  However, Edwards did not dominate any more races and had no wins, in the Chase or otherwise, after his one early-season win at Las Vegas.  Had he won ONE more race he would have won the Championship.  Period.

Now, in 2012, rumors have been swirling around Kenseth's future.  His RFR contract is over at season's end, and many have wondered if he would leave his long-time home.  Now, this week Roush reports that defending Nationwide Series champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be replacing Kenseth at RFR in the 2013 season.  Will Kenseth be driving a Toyota in 2013?  Will he bring Ford back to Penske Racing?  We will likely know by week's end.

What we do know is that for a second year in a row, Roush has a driver who is hot and contending for a championship, yet they are unsure about their future.  Yes, Edwards did have a successful year in 2011, but few would doubt that he could have won another race had contract talks been completed prior to the 2011 season, which would have led to his first championship.  Add on top of that, Kenseth will be dealing with going to a new team, who will be his crew chief, who will be his sponsor, etc, and the likelihood that the 17 will be celebrating after Homestead becomes low.

Either Roush has the worst timing and luck in the NASCAR garage, or someone seriously needs to question their wisdom about personnel management.  Had Edwards won the 2011 championship, sponsorship and money woes would have undoubtedly been less of a strain in 2012, and he may have kept the Cup another year.

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Drivers, Crew Chiefs And Job Applications, Oh My!!

Although there is generally a drop-off in the amount of NASCAR drama to comment on once the season has ended, the 2011-2012 off-season is proving to provide a wealth of material.  Yes, the off-season is known as the end of "silly season" for a reason, but usually the drivers that are looking to secure a ride in November and December are coming from mid to lower tier teams. 

This year the available driver pool is packed with 2 drivers from top tier teams, Kurt Busch from Penske and David Ragan from Roush Fenway, and 2 drivers from mid tier teams, Brian Vickers from Red Bull and David Reutimann from Michael Waltrip Racing.  While each of these drivers carry there own issues, they all have won at the highest level of stock car racing and one of them is a former Sprint Cup Champion.

Not only has their been a heavy load of drivers coming on the "market" this fall, there are also a couple of winning crew chiefs available.  After winning 5 of 10 Chase races and the 2011 Spring Cup Championship, Darian Grubb apparently was not quite achieving the level of success Tony Stewart was looking for, so he is now looking for a job.  Also, after an up and down year, mostly down, Mike Ford, crew chief for Denny Hamlin, is now out of his seat at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Although a couple of the above have just exited their positions, two of them are rumored to be close to nailing down their next gig.  David Ragan been supposedly putting on a full court press to land in the seat of the #22 Penske Racing Dodge vacated by Kurt Busch.  Ragan had been under contract with Roush Fenway Racing through 2012, even though his #6 Ford was without sponsorship next season and was unlikely to run a full schedule.  Ragan has now been released from his contract by RFR, but nothing concrete has been commented on by Penske Racing.

Darian Grubb, defending crew chief champion, has been said to be the leading candidate for the crew chief slot for the #11 FedEx Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.  Although he has less career wins than former crew chief Mike Ford, Grubb is coming off of his championship run with Tony Stewart, so if he and Hamlin can get up to speed quickly, they could be contenders come Chase time in 2012.

One unanswered question as of yet is, with three winning drivers left available, will any top tiered teams or mid tier teams add a car to their stable?  It is not altogether likely that Vickers, Reutimann, or even Busch in his current state, could land a sponsor big enough to start a new car with a top team like JGR, RFR, Stewart Haas or RCR, but Vickers and especially Busch could definitely land a sponsor large enough for a car with Richard Petty Racing who had flirted with adding a car earlier in the year when all of the Danica craze was going on.  Either way, there will be some new looking cars on the track come January at the Daytona test prior to speedweeks.

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Where Will Busch Go?

With all of the season ending craziness coming to an end, and after some time to hear from sponsors, Kurt Busch and Roger Penske decided to part ways.  Kurt Busch will not drive a Penske Dodge next year, leaving the #22 Penzoil Dodge open for David Ragan or another driver looking for a ride.

But just where will Busch go?

Its not as if we didn't expect to be asking that question this off-season, except most of you probably expected it would be Kyle Busch looking for a job.  However, after Kurt's tirade at the season ending race at Homestead, he will be looking for his third Sprint Cup ride. 

Busch entered the Sprint Cup Series for 7 races in 2000 in the #97 Roush Ford.  After winning a Sprint Cup Championship in 2004, Busch's relationships at Roush Fenway Racing became strained.  He then exited after 2005 to drive for Roger Penske, taking over the driving responsibilities for the blue #2 from retiring driver, Rusty Wallace.

After 10 wins and many ups and downs, the aggravation felt by Busch finally came to a head in a tirade focust at Dr. Jerry Punch, TV racing commentator/analyst, simply for having to wait for the live feed for his interview.

Now that he is without a ride, Busch may find it difficult to find a job with a top tier team.  All of the seats at Hendrick are currently filled.  Although there is a seat open at Roush Fenway Racing, they are without a sponsor, and due to old issues that move would be highly unlikely.  RCR has an open seat, but it is only open for part of the year, with Childress running his grandson, Austin Dillon, for a small schedule.  That leaves JGR, SHR, and EGR. 

Joe Gibbs has his hands full with the refitting of his three teams that did not have a good 2011, so they would be unlikely to add another possible headache.  Stewart Haas is has a full time slot and a part time slot, but without a solid sponsor would likely shy away from starting a fourth team while they are preparing to run a limited schedule with Danica Patrick in 2012.  And EGR, coming off one of their worst seasons as an organization, would have trouble getting another large sponsor without some recent success.

Start his own team or buy into a small organization?  Race into obscurity with a "go or go home" team?  I have no idea on this one.  I can definitely guarantee one thing is certain: Kurt Busch could really use a Miller Lite about now.

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The Most Boring Talladega Race Ever?

Yes, I said it.  I doubt I am the only one.  I am sure there will be plenty of reporters and comentators saying how great the two car racing is and how much the NASCAR fans love it.  My reply to them is best summed up by two words: Empty Seats.

Sure, some of you will say I am testy simply because Dale Jr. was relegated to another disappointing Talladega finish.  Perhaps you are correct, but let me finish.

I believe that NASCAR's premier series is best when they have 43 (or as close to 43 as they can get) competitive cars all racing to get their best finish.  No "team orders."  No need for a "partner." 

Yet this past Sunday we had about 20 teams competing.  We had drivers told not to help other makes (Ford, Chevy, Etc) so that drivers with their own make that are in the Chase would benefit.  (No, I am not just speaking of the Roush/Bayne situation, because I am sure it happened with other teams as well.)  We saw about half the field content with laying back until about 20 laps to go.  They were simply happy to just ride for about 170 laps to compete in the last 18. 

NASCAR, that is not competition.

After the race, Richard Childress made the point that the drivers are not on the track to simply ride around.  I am sure that his former driver of the #3 would totally agree.  Previously, Dale Jr. would have as well.  Although he and Johnson have laid back in the past 2 or 3 plate races, earlier in his career Junior prefered to be ahead of the "big one" rather than dodging it from the back of the pack.  Hopefully the Hendrick teams can see that laying back with this two car tandem racing may be easy to overcome with 100 laps to go, but not so easy when everyone else at the back is also trying to wake up and start racing in the final laps.

Don't get me wrong.   Although I do prefer the pack racing to this ridiculous two-car stuff, much of what I am complaining about would still occur.  Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. would probably still have "hidden out" in the back.  Trevor Bayne would still have been scolded for helping Jeff Gordon.

Should NASCAR fix this non-racing and make Talladega competitive again or should they simply tell the drivers that Talladega will only be 30 laps next year so they can conserve fuel and quit wasting tires simply to make time for commercials.  How many fans actually watched all 188 laps anyway?  I did.  But I will admit that the last 30 were the only laps where all the cars were actually competing. 

Again... NASCAR, that is not competition.

How can NASCAR fix the restrictor plate races.  Can they remove the restrictor plates?  This is what many NASCAR purists would love.  "Let 'em loose," they would say.  But with safety being so paramount these days, NASCAR will not let the cars maintain a speed above 200 mph.  Although that would do away with pack racing and tandem racing, if NASCAR says its not going to happen, it is not going to happen.

There are other possible solutions.  Changing the shape of the front and/or rear bumpers so that "linking up" is much more difficult is a possibility.  Opening the Restrictor plate up much more so that the car's ability to produce horsepower by itself makes running in a pack less necessary.  Mandate that the air intakes on the front bumper be only in the center of the bumper, that would really screw up the two car tandems.  I am sure there are others, but NASCAR should know after this weekend that 1/64th of an inch more opening in the restrictor plate and lowering the pressure allowed on the cooling system by a few pounds makes absolutely no difference whatsoever.

Perhaps NASCAR should conduct a test with one car from each team and experiment with several packages on track.  Obviously the wind patterns on the "drawing board" don't react the same way they do at Talladega and Daytona.

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Danica Patrick: The NASCAR World Awaits!

From her courting of NASCAR in 2008 to her limited seasons in 2010 and now in 2011 with JR Motorsports, owned by Dale Earnhardt Jr. Danica Patrick has been sought after by NASCAR fans and owners alike. Her fan base, sponsor backing, and her ability to place a female in NASCAR’s Cup Series make her a worthy investment.

Now, with Carl Edwards solidly at Roush Fenway Racing, Danica is far and away the highest sought after driver in both the Sprint Cup and the Nationwide garage.

The past year and a half, rumors have run wild that she was going to move to NASCAR full time and leave her IRL career behind. Yet at the end of 2010 she resigned with Andretti Autosport to drive for owner Michael Andretti. Now rumors are spreading that she will be signing to drive full time with JR Motorsports full time in 2012 and possibly will be driving a limited Sprint Cup schedule for Stewart Haas Racing, a close ally of JR Motorsports and Hendrick Motorsports.

Many fans and commentators were very unimpressed by Patrick’s performance, both in IRL and in her first partial year in the Nationwide Series. In IRL she has only had one win in 7 years of racing and her highest season finish is 5th. In her 2010 Nationwide Series stint she had only 1 finish out of 13 inside the top 20: the last race of the season at Homestead.

Many commentators felt she would not pursue a NASCAR career due to a lack of ability to get good finishes in stock cars. Many bloggers said she was a hack and could never compete in NASCAR.

It seems as Danica Patrick was on the edge of giving up on NASCAR, something began to click. With veteran crew chief Tony Eury Jr. and driving coach Johnny Benson, former Sprint Cup driver, coaching her on NASCAR’s tracks and stock car driving styles and lingo, Danica became more and more comfortable.

With 6 races left in her 2011 season, Danica has posted 1 top 5, 3 top 10’s, and only 1 race outside the top 20. Probably more impressive is the fact that at every track Patrick has returned to in a Nationwide car, she has always finished better than the time before. At Daytona she has finished 35th, 14th, and then 10th. At Chicagoland she finished 24th then 10th when she returned. At Phoenix she finished 32nd in 2010 then finished 17th in 2011. And most impressively, at Las Vegas she finished 36th in her first year and 4th this year.

Say what you want, Patrick’s ability to settle into stock car racing is promising. Whether you like her or not, you cannot argue with the numbers. Granted, the Nationwide Series is not Cup racing, where I am sure she will have more difficulty. But the fact is that she IS competing at the Nationwide series with a short time in the car.

The next question for Patrick, who is rumored to drive an Indy car for only the Indy 500 next year, is will a full time schedule with no IRL propel her to compete at an even higher level. She will have to show a little more ability and nerve in her Sprint Cup appearances if she wants to be taken seriously at that level.

I, for one, won’t doubt that she can do it. I mean, have you ever told a woman she “can’t” do something?


Follow JD on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Return To Coke 600 Victory Lane Close For Roush

From 1999 to 2002, no Sprint Cup owner visited victory lane after the Coke 600 other than Jack Roush. During those four races, Roush drivers Burton, Kenseth, and Martin were strong. From 1998 to 2002 there were 25 NASCAR races at LMS, including Nationwide Series Races, Sprint Cup Races, and All Star Races; Roush drivers won 12 of those races. In comparison, Hendrick drivers won 4.

Some of that same strength was on display this past Saturday night in the All Star Race in which Carl Edwards dominated. Throughout each stage of the race, there was only one car that remained consistently up front. By the end of the race, it was Edwards’ to lose. Yes there was some competition, but nobody had the car to beat him with; he won segments 2, 3 and 4. The only other driver to win a segment was his teammate Greg Biffle.

Besides Edwards and Biffle, the other Roush drivers had strong cars as well. Matt Kenseth showed some horsepower often during the race and finished sixth, one spot behind Greg Biffle. Even the weakest team from the Roush stable had a good run. David Ragan won the Sprint Showdown, passing Brad Keselowski to get the first transfer spot into the Sprint All Star Race.

Roush’s only worry going into the 600 mile race on Sunday is that he doesn’t just need fast horses Sunday night; he needs motors that will last 600 miles. The engine setup for a 150 mile race is much different than that of a race four times as long. Although Roush has not had the blown engines that Joe Gibbs Racing has had in 2011, they haven’t been the most consistent. To give one or more of his drivers a good chance to win this week, Roush will have to balance power with endurance.

Another interesting stat is that Hendrick Motorsports has more Coke 600 wins than any other organization, including Petty Motorsports, with 9 wins. Their winners include Darrell Waltrip, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Casey Mears.

Battling the Roush drivers this week will, no doubt, be Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Both showed some muscle at certain points in Saturday’s race, but struggled with ill-handling cars at times. Each of these champions have won the 600 mile race 3 times, and are known for saving their cars and being able to bring their best at the end of a long race. Look for these two to challenge early, but definitely get strong as the lights warm up at Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

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Will Hendrick Motorsports Return To Domination At Martinsville?

Few tracks have been dominated by Hendrick Motorsports the past ten years like Martinsville Speedway. Out of the twenty races in the past ten years, HMS drivers have won ten. A fifty percent win percentage is not too bad. However, the only number that has dominated the past three visits to the Virginia short track has been the number eleven.

Denny Hamlin has had a firm grasp on the key to the winners circle at Martinsville Speedway the past three years, but is currently having a slow start to the 2011 season. Although he definitely knows how to win at the half mile track, one would question if his team is even on a winning path at this point in the season.

Even though the past nine races at Martinsville have been won by either Johnson or Hamlin, the current win leader there is Jeff Gordon. He may not have won there since 2005, but he does have 7 wins there and in the races since his last win there, only once did he finish outside the top five. I am certain that his new crew chief, Alan Gustafson, will be reminding him of his last second place finish to Jimmie Johnson there, in which Johnson gave him some memorable front bumper love.

Johnson may want to exact some revenge of his own. Fresh off a disappointing late race loss at Auto Club Speedway to Kevin Harvick, Johnson will undoubtedly want to return to victory lane at Martinsville. He has not won there in four races, and may be slightly remembering the view from there. I doubt that however since he has won there six times and has been quite dominant there in the past 5 years.

The other two Hendrick drivers are probably not on anyone’s favorite list this week, but should definitely be kept on any dark horse list. Mark Martin is not having a great beginning to the season, but has had some solid finishes as of late. He has not had the dominant finishes at Martinsville that Gordon and Johnson have had, but he is a two time winner there, the last win coming in 2000 while he was driving for Jack Roush.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. doesn’t top anyone’s list of Martinsville greats, nor has he won there. But at which track has he led the most laps in his NASCAR Sprint Cup career? Yep, that was an easy one, Martinsville. You read it right, he has led more at the half mile paperclip than he has led at Talladega. Of course, there are more laps in a Martinsville race than in two Talladega races, but to put it into perspective, he has led more laps there than Daytona and Richmond combined, sites of 5 of his wins. Also, the most top five finishes he has at any track is 8. He has reached that number at Talladega (5 wins), Richmond (3 wins), Daytona (2 wins), Atlanta (1 win), and, you guessed it, Martinsville.

Now, I’m definitely not making a pick for this weekend off the above paragraph alone, but I definitely think that the 48 will not be the only HMS car in the top five this weekend. The question, still, is will they again claim the Martinsville victory lane as their turf… We will know in a few days…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #3- Roush Fenway Racing

Roush Fenway Racing finished the 2010 season with a bang.  This team started 2010 with 19 top-10s in the first 10 races then slid quickly with only 9 top-10s in the second 10 races.  As the confusion wore off of the new Ford engine, however, RFR quickly came around and finished with 17 top-10s in the Chase, with 8 of those being top-5s and 3 being wins.

For David Ragan, 2011 has a fork in the road, one he will reach around July or August.  In 2010, Ragan had 15 finishes between 11th and 20th, yet only 3 in the top 10.  Ragan did have more consistent runs down the stretch, but not quite the caliber that Jack Roush will want from a long term investment.  If Ragan does not start breaking into the top ten and come close to qualifying for the Chase, he will be looking for a new ride come September.

Greg Biffle had a 2010 that was similar to the rest of his career: great finishes and horrible finishes.  In the final 20 races, Biffle finished 7 times in the top 5; and also finished 5 times 30th or worse.  So indicative of his hard driving style, of his 9 top 15 finishes in those 20 races, 7 were top 5's.  If Biffle could find some consistency in 2011 he could mount a championship run, but don't expect it.  Don't get me wrong, Biffle is a great driver, arguably one of the hardest chargers in the garage, but consistency just isn't his thing.

Speaking of consistency, Kenseth could be looking at another '03-like year in 2011.  His finishes of 2010 show a definite return of consistency, with 24 finishes in the top 15.  In fact, in the last 20 races, Kenseth finished outside the top 20 only twice.  However, a consistent year like '03 sadly will not achieve the same success in 2011 due to a need for dominance in the Chase, not just consistency.

No driver in the RFR stable is more ready to start 2011 than Carl Edwards.  After finishing the year with back to back wins, Edwards is eager for the opportunity to continue the streak.  2010 was a great year for Edwards, held back only by some miscues in the Chase and a poor start to the Summer.  If Edwards can start 2011 where he left 2010 and have a consistent year, he may be the best driver to compete with Jimmie Johnson next Fall, especially if he can get streaky.  His pair of wins in 2010 were the 5th time in his career that he had back to back wins.

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