What Have We Learned From 2013?

Close the book.  Another year in the history of NASCAR has come to a close.  All of the preparation of the garage for the new Gen 6, the plate races, the summer stretch, and the Chase - over.  No more "Five Time", Jimmie Johnson now has 6 in his attempt for the most cups.

With everything over and written down, just what have we learned this season?  What bits of wisdom has 2013 imparted to us to clarify what is coming in 2014 and beyond?

First, we have re-learned that Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are nowhere near finished dominating the sport.  It is utterly amazing how much their combination is made for the Sprint Cup setup and would not work without one of the two.  Johnson has a 1 win to every 6.6 race ratio in Sprint Cup, an unbelievable fact when placed beside his 1 win to 93 race ratio in the Nationwide Series.

Many people say that the 48's success lies solely with Chad Knaus or is only because of Hendrick money.  Those people should think about the 3 races Johnson drove in Hendrick cars without Knaus with an average finish of 31st.  They should also consider that in 35 Sprint Cup races without Jimmie Johnson, Knaus has zero wins, zero top 5's, and only 1 top 10 with an average finish of 24th.

No, Knaus, Johnson, and Hendrick make a mixture precision, determination and, yes, money, that will be successful as long as the three are combined.  Will there be a 7th championship?  Probably.  Will they continue forever?  Nothing lasts forever, but for now there is no end in sight, so get used to it.

Second, we learned that the fall from dominance and competitiveness is a steep one.  Last year we had a young and exciting new champion who looked like he would carry his success forward with a new make, but Brad Keselowski's change from Dodge to Ford proved anything but successful.  Penske Racing did not change crews, kept the same crew chief, the same driver, and merely changed engines and decals.  Still, the blue deuce ended up 14th at the end of the season and was not able to compete in the Chase to defend their championship.

Yes, Keselowski still had a win, and yes he led laps, but after the trouble began in mid spring after a penalty for questionable parts sidelined his crew chief, they could not rebound.  They began the season with 4 straight top 5's, then had a 10 race run in the spring that saw them outside the top 20 for 6 races and aggravation became disappointment when his new teammate made the Chase and he did not.

Finally, we learned that the more things change the more they stay the same.  NASCAR has spent years and dollars changing the image of the sport from the "if you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin", brawling blue collar sport of the 50's, 60's and 70's.  Yet what did we get this year?  "Is your arm starting to hurt?....Itch it..."  And, "Good job man, hopefully we'll get something out of that."  For any readers who don't get the reference, these were radio transmissions from the Richmond race where drivers, crews, and owners reportedly conspired to affect the points so particular drivers could make the Chase.

With these three things in mind, an outlook on 2014 would have to conclude that Johnson will be strong, Keselowski will be looking to make a point, and NASCAR drivers and owners will continue to do anything they think they can get away with to win.  All three of these probabilities should make for another great season.

How many days until Daytona?

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Who Will Get The Wild Cards?

With only 6 races remaining until the cutoff for the Chase after Richmond, the race for the two coveted wildcard spots is tightening up.  Although anything could happen between now and the finish under the lights at Richmond, the field is pretty well down to 5 drivers: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon.  Paul Menard and Joey Logano are close to Gordon in points totals, but neither of them have are currently headed in the right direction, so a 6 race swing in their favor is not likely.  Ambrose, always a possible winner at Watkins Glen, would need more than 1 win to make the spot from so far back, which is probably not going to happen either.

The 10th position in the points is currently occupied by Clint Bowyer, a solid 55 points ahead of 11th, Kyle Busch.  If anyone is capable of putting together a string of good finishes, let alone wins, to get into the top 10, Kyle Busch is that person.  However, lately Busch has been having trouble putting together 500 miles without blowing an engine, so making up an average of 9.2 points per race on Bowyer would be a tough order.

So who out of the 5 wild card contenders will gain a Chase entry?  Let’s look at the last 6 races: Pocono (this week), Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond.  Out of the 5 contenders, only 3 have wins: Busch (1), Kahne (2), and Newman (1).  I personally believe that 2 wins will get you in this year, a thought for which time is dwindling to disprove.  That means that Kahne will be in this year's Chase.  It also means that now we have 4 drivers contending for 1 spot.

Of the four I would definitely say that Busch has the best shot.  He has more points than the others (not by much) and only Gordon has more wins at the coming 6 tracks.  In fact, Busch is more of a lock than anyone to compete for the win at Richmond: his average finish there is 4.7.  That is in 15 visits, during which he only has 2 finishes OUTSIDE THE TOP 5.  That is ridiculous, so much so that I had to look at the stats twice. 

Although Carl Edwards is just behind Busch in the points, I don't give him much of a chance to make this year's Chase.  Edwards has no wins this year, has only 2 top 5 finishes, and has just received a Crew Chief change.  Yes, Edwards does have the best finishing average at these 6 tracks (out of these 4 drivers), but right now points won't help unless you have wins, and Edwards is not even knocking on the door.

Ryan Newman is has a chance at the final spot for two reasons: he has one win and he is always a threat to win at Richmond and Pocono, as he is good on flat tracks.  Newman’s chances, however, hinge on him winning and Busch not winning.  Newman is unlikely to pass Busch in points because, although he is only 15 back, his average finish at the 6 tracks lags behind Busch's.

Lastly we have Jeff Gordon.  Gordon is in need of a hot streak, something he has not seen in a few years.  Gordon is 24 points behind Busch, but without a win he is helpless.  Gordon needs at least one win to make the Chase this year, and at the remaining tracks he has 23 previous wins.  Although many would think of him as a threat at Watkins Glen, Gordon has 5 wins each at Pocono, Atlanta, and Bristol.  If Gordon could catch some luck and momentum at the same time, he is in, but that is a huge if.

I should add that Kasey Kahne should be relieved that his 2 wins is likely to put him over the threshold, as his average finish at the next 6 venues is a dismal 18.3, with Michigan being the only one with an average finish under 17th.

All in all, I would say that the race for the Chase should be coming down to a good show.  Between drivers trying to win their way in to the Chase and those looking for more bonus points, a few fenders are likely in for some damage, or at least we can hope...

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Darrell Wallace Jr: Logano, Round 2?

Four years ago, Joe Gibbs Racing began to introduce a new star to the sport of stock car racing. "Sliced Bread" was to be the next Richard Petty, was the greatest young driver ever seen by some, and was expected to make NASCAR his playground.

Over the next few seasons, Joey Logano has gained mutual respect from other NASCAR drivers, but has failed to wow fans and has won just one race. He has, however, dominated at times in the Nationwide Series where he and his JGR teammates have been the cream of the crop over the last three years.

Perhaps Logano was brought all the way up to the Cup Series before he was ready. JGR was looking for a replacement for Tony Stewart at the time who was leaving, and was, no doubt, looking for a bright, young face that could keep some sponsors. That they got.

With his 12 wins in the Nationwide Series it's easy to think that Logano would have won a Nationwide Championship by now and could have eased his way into the upper level. Perhaps his confidence would have been kept in tact and he would have had an easier time acclimating to the Sprint Cup Series. Who knows?

With Wallace Jr., however there is yet another piece of the NASCAR pie on the line. Wallace Jr. is the best new hope of NASCAR's Drive For Diversity program. Wallace Jr., an African American, has had great success in the K&N Series, and will be expected to continue that progression in the Nationwide Series for JGR. Hopefully the Gibbs organization has learned some lessons from Logano.

One benefit Wallace Jr. will have is that, although JGR may be looking to add a 4th car at some point to its Cup stable, there is no superstar seat to fill to make them do so in a hurried fashion as they did with Logano. JGR has the ability to allow Wallace Jr. The time to mature in the Nationwide Series and become accustomed to the press, fans, and everything else "NASCAR."

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NASCAR Goes Back To The Drawing Board

Earlier this week, NASCAR conducted an aerodynamic test at Daytona International Speedway to attempt to overcome the "Two Car Tango" that has made itself so prevalent at the two restrictor plate tracks of Daytona and Talladega. NASCAR's appetite for the two car drafting style finally ran out when the style produces one of the most boring races in recent restrictor plate history.

Prior to the Talladega race, NASCAR came out with changes to the allowed pressure on the cooling system and a small increase to the restrictor plate.  Those changes produced... well... nothing different.  The cars were still able to stay linked together into two car drafts and the increase in plate size did not produce any real increase in single-car speed.  After their small changes did nothing to change the drafting dynamic at Talladega, NASCAR planned the aero test with a hand full of Cup Series teams. 

NASCAR fielded the test with Cup drivers Dale Earnhardt Jr., Aric Almirola, David Ragan, Marcos Ambrose, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., and Joe Nemechek.  The test included using various packages of larger restrictor plates and smaller rear spoilers in the attempt to make both a higher individual speed and a less rear downforce to make the two car drafting less needed and less comfortable for the driver. 

The speeds during the test have reached well over 200 mph, which is nothing new for the two car draft, but these speeds were reached by individual cars.  In the past, NASCAR has been adamant that cars would be kept below 200 mph in the interest of safety, so apparently they are considering relaxing that standard.  A change would make more sense now since NASCAR has plenty of empirical evidence over the past 10 years that the changes to walls, head restraints, and car design have produced less injury to drivers in severe wrecks.

Some of the drivers in the test seemed more impressed that NASCAR has taken this step in improving the restrictor plate competition than the results that the test produced.  NASCAR has made many changes to plate sizes, rear spoiler size, and other aspects of the car over the years, but rarely have they asked for driver imput, especially in trying out different packages to make sure that the end product is desireable. 

Whether the two car tandems will be gone at the January test or just uncomfortable enough to last for a half lap, NASCAR has finally showed that they have no more desire to see the team racing of the past year's plate races.  I am sure the "team orders" and laying back have helped them in their decision, but either way, I for one am glad to see NASCAR ushering the racing style off the track.

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What Does Carl Edwards Want?

Each Summer NASCAR begins their “Silly Season” talk, filled with suspicions, rumors, and plots about who will change teams, who will reorganize, and who will be left out of the musical chairs game that is the Sprint Cup Garage. The 2011 season, of course, is no different. While I maintain that the biggest name to land for next year is Danica Patrick, Carl Edwards is, by far, the most chased driver in the Cup garage.

Edwards’ contract with Jack Roush and Roush Fenway Racing is over at the end of the 2011 season, and as he has yet to sign a new contract with RFR, suspicions and rumors are flying that he will be leaving RFR for Joe Gibbs Racing. Gibbs is the strongest team with an extra seat available to offer, so the possibility makes some sense, but would the move be anything more than a lateral move?

Although JGR has had a championship contender and multiple wins over the past few years, they have not necessarily left RFR behind. Both teams are among the top tier in NASCAR.

So then one would have to wonder what Edwards is looking for.

If it is more money, the addition of Ford in the effort with RFR to keep Edwards should help. Then again, Toyota would likely give just as much to get Edwards whose selling ability is as good as or better than that of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano combined. So if both are willing to meet what Edwards is looking for in pay, what else is there?

Perhaps Edwards is looking for a fresh start. He has not slowed on the track, but his wins the past few years have slowed from ’05, ’07, and ’08. From 2005-2008 he had 17 wins in spite of being shut out in 2006. However from 2009 to now he has only 3. Yes, the new Ford engines have given him some boost this year, but that has yet to translate into victory lane appearances.

With the current level of parity in NASCAR’s premier league, a move from one top tier team to another is not likely going to make a big difference in equipment and manpower. Even Hendrick Motorsports, once seen as head and shoulders about the other teams, has been brought back to the pack. So whatever Edwards basis his opinion on will have to give him peace of mind that the owner will not only give Edwards plenty of people, but the right people. He will have to feel that the owner is committed to putting him not just in victory lane, but at the head of the table in November at the awards ceremony.

Either way, I can only say one thing to him… Carl, while you’re thinking about this future altering decision….remember to turn left…

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Joe Gibbs Racing Faces Tough Four Races

Coming out of an up and down Coke 600, Joe Gibbs Racing is sitting in pretty good position for the season. Kyle Busch is 5th in the points standings and has two wins and Hamlin and Logano seem to have survived recent team issues and are beginning to be competitive again. And although Hamlin and Logano are outside the top ten, they are making ground. Hamlin is just 18 points out and Logano is 74 points out. Both still can make the Chase.

The next four races, however, pose quite a task for the team. Although there are bright spots, like Pocono for Hamlin, these next races have not been kind to the team as a whole. There will be JGR fans reading this that will scoff at this thought, since JGR has 6 combined wins at the next four tracks of Kansas, Pocono, Michigan, and Sonoma, but please, hear me out.

JGR has an average finish of 19th for the combined four tracks. That number may be decent for some teams, but for a top 5 team and two teams struggling to get in the top 10, they won’t get the job done. Not to mention, a return to aggravation for the 20 and 11 teams could very well be catastrophic right now.

Does this mean that success it out of the question for a few weeks? No! Only a fool would bet against Kyle Busch as long as there is gas in the car, Denny Hamlin is a virtual lock for a top 5 at Pocono, and Michigan is one of Logano’s best tracks in his young career.

What will be the test, however, is can all three of these teams put together the run they need over a stretch of races that are historically unkind to them. Especially the 11 and 20 teams that need to continue their march toward the top 10.

Although Logano’s average finish for the four races is the lowest at 22nd, Kyle Busch’s average finish of 20th is probably the most surprising. In fact, Busch’s best average finish out of the four tracks is his average of 18th at Michigan. At each of the other three he averages 20th or higher.

The coming race at Kansas is historically one of the most problematic for the JGR teams. The JGR average finish at Kansas is an unacceptable 23rd, with Hamlin averaging 18th, Busch 24th, and Logano 28th in his three visits to the 1.5 mile track.

Yes, the work will be difficult for the next four races, but don’t plan on seeing me bet against JGR. Each of the drivers, especially Busch and Hamlin, have proven that they are capable of winning anywhere. We will see if they can conquer the coming tracks en route to a possibly challenging for the championship again.

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Early Points: Surprises High And Low

Yes, yes, I know, it is way too early to get caught up in any discussion about points standings with only three races in the books for 2011. Too bad, I will anyway. The reason being, there are several drivers who are surprisingly high and several who are surprisingly low, even after only three races. Although there is much time, and assuredly the top ten staples will return to the top ten for the most part, with the new points system and so many changes in NASCAR, any differences should be noted and watched.

In any off season predictions of this years Chase contenders, you would have found Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, and Kevin Harvick. You also probably saw Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, and Clint Boyer. The average current points position for these seven drivers is 25.7 and they are an average 52 points behind leader Kurt Busch. Now, under the old system, 52 points would not be much, but in the current system, those are comparable to about 200 points in the old system.

Being behind that far and winning the championship has not happened since Terry Labonte in 1996. Labonte was 211 points behind Dale Jarrett in the old point system after Richmond (the third race that year.) However, that was due mostly to Jarrett’s dominating start to the season. That year, he began with one win and three straight top five finishes and was 86 points ahead of second place Jeff Burton. Also, with the implementation of the “Chase”, a huge lead shrinks quite quickly.

With that said, these seven drivers definitely know that they need some good runs and they need them now! Look for these drivers to have a good deal of damage to their front bumper and right side as they root their way to the front at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The surprises near the top of the points standings are none other than Juan Pablo Montoya, Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Although a few predictions may have had Montoya and Earnhardt Jr. in their top twelve for the Chase, I doubt any of those prognosticators would have thought Junior and Montoya would have had such good finishes so early in the season.

None of the predictors would have picked Menard and Allmendiger for the top ten, and definitely not so early. With Menard starting a new team at RCR and Allmendinger racing for a rebuilt RPM, the two drivers would have been happy with mid-teen consistent finishes at this point. Yet they have been competitive in the top ten and near the top five at each track so far.

Of course, the one factor yet to play its little hand in the stats of this blog post has yet to rear its head. Time. A few races will make much clear. Will the perennial favorites move back up with a few good finishes? Or will the surprises at the top trip over a couple of disappointing finishes and not regain their current composure?

That, friends, is why we turn the racing on each and every week!


See more from Joseph Davis at The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #1- Joe Gibbs Racing

The top team going into the 2011 season has to be Joe Gibbs Racing. Of course Denny Hamlin somewhat fell apart the last three races and Kyle Busch wasn't competitive in the Chase, but trust me. I'm sure Mr Gibbs knows he has some mending to do on the 11 team and needs to hit the reset button on the 18, but he is Joe Gibbs.

The driver I think Gibbs is most excited about heading into Daytona is Joey Logano. The 20 car headed into Homestead with quite a run. The 5 finishes prior to the finale were 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th then 3rd. I think the Harvicks may have awakened a new frontrunner. Look for Logano to expand on his success from the end of 2010 and even grab a couple of wins. Although I don't feel he is quite ready for a true championship run, look out in 2012.

The most disappointed driver in the Gibbs stable this December was not Hamlin, it was Kyle Busch. Besides the facts that he had the lowest average finish out of the Gibbs drivers, he never really competed for the championship in 2010. He had some great runs, including three wins, but the season was very up and down. For example, in the Chase, Busch had 3 top tens, but also had three finishes worse than 30th. Look for some new consistency from Busch in 2011. If he can combine consistency with a few wins, he could once again be a charger in the Chase.

The end of 2010 was heartbreaking for Hamlin. Hamlin only had three finishes outside the top ten in the Chase, but two of them came in the las two races, ripping the Sprint Cup from Hamlin's grasp. Many people have made much fuss over unhappiness between Hamlin and his crew chief, Mike Ford, over poor adjustments at the end of the season and some remarks he made about Jimmie Johnson. In 2011 Hamlin will come out of the gates as hard nosed and charging as ever and will come close to his eight wins in 2010. Hamlin will, however, have to focus more on Chase tracks to ensure top five finishes at the end of the season.

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