Drivers To Watch In The Daytona 500

With all of NASCAR's rule changes enveloped in a new car design, this year's Daytona 500 is full of uknowns.  The cars will all be bunched up again into large packs, but the ability of cars to drive up and side draft alone may be greater than it has in years.  With a change in maneuverability and the abandoning of 2 car drafts, it will be each driver for himself (or herself, of course) for more than the last few hundred yards.

This new car design and how it affects the cars in the draft at 195 mph has changed how most drivers view the race.  Some, such as Carl Edwards, say the racing is much more fun.  But others may be unsure about their chances and their strategies entering NASCAR's premier event because they have either never raced this style of restrictor plate racing or they had minimal experience with it prior to the 2 car tandem racing that developed after the COT was put in place.

The wild and aggressive style of racing from this car definitely lends itself to drivers like Kevin Harvick who has won the Sprint Unlimited and his Gatorade Duel.  Also benefited by this style would be drivers like Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Greg Biffle, all who like aggressive racing and are very good at handling cars that are moving around.

Some of the drivers who had plenty of experience and success at the old plate racing style, such as Gordon, Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip, may do well due to their experience at sensing the momentum of various lines and working their way to the front of a pack.  However, Waltrip has had much less seat time in recent years due to his semi-retirement, Earnhardt Jr. has not been pleased with his car's ability it pull up to cars in front of him, and Gordon has not won at a Daytona since 2005 and has an average finish of 20.8 since then.

There are a few new drivers who may do well this weekend.  All of the media's attention is on rookie of the year candidate Danica Patrick for getting the pole for this weeks race.  She does have a very fast car, but more attention should definitely be paid to drivers such as Austin Dillon who finished 3rd in his Gatorade Duel behind Kyle Busch and Kasey Kahne.  In that race he had an impressive driver rating of 111 due to his ability to not only finish near the front, but to have maintained that position most of the race.  Also, Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne was quite strong in his Gatorade Duel, leading most of the race prior to wrecking.  If the 21 crew has a strong backup, Bayne may be seen near the front at the end of Sunday's race.

On particular driver who be a bit of a sentimental favorite for many this week is Mark Martin.  Martin has said he does not plan to come back next year for Michael Waltrip, and although he may still drive a limited schedule, the likelihood he will be in a top tier, or near top tier, ride at Daytona in the future is slim to none.  After coming close so many times, it would be great to see him finally win on NASCAR's largest stage.

Whoever wins Sunday, you can guarantee their will be plenty of passes, some extremely fast racing, and yes, some large wrecks.  As drivers are just becoming accustomed to the Gen 6 car's handling and how the drafts and "air bubbles" are being affected, as we have seen in the past week, there will be plenty of torn up cars going back to the garage. 

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On Your Mark!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 6th-12th

Now that all of the jockeying for a Chase spot is over, the attention of twelve drivers will turn toward the final ten races of the year.  As the Chase is complete with downforce tracks, a restrictor plate track, a short track, a concrete track, a flat track, and the one of a kind Homestead, a well rounded racer should do well.  However, with only 10 races to go, and every point important, a driver with the ability to finish well every week will be hard to beat as well.

12th - Jeff Gordon: Gordon made his way into this year's Chase with a great finish at Richmond after struggling early.  Although this team needed help from a bad finish by the 18 team to make the Chase, don't count them out easily.  Gordon is a 4 time champ, is the most winning active driver, and is always capable of hitting a hot streak.  Gordon averages a 12.2 place finish at the 10 tracks and has 31 wins on them.

11th - Kasey Kahne: The 5 team made the Chase with Kahne in their first year together due, in large part, to Kahne's strong wins early in the season.  Although Kahne has not been unstopable during the summer, he has maintained a strong team and his two wins solidified their Chase spot.  Kahne has never excelled at the Chase, his best finish being 8th, but he has also not competed in the Chase in a Hendrick car.  Kahne has an average finish of 16.3 with 7 wins at the Chase tracks.

10th - Martin Truex Jr.: How this team made the Chase with such strong runs and did not win, I do not know, but nevertheless, they are in and looking for a win.  Truex has never finished in the top 10 in the Sprint Cup Series, but don't count this team out.  They have been consistent all season and should have a good showing.  Truex has an average finish of 15.7 with his only career win coming at the Chase track of Dover.

9th - Kevin Harvick: Will the 29 team's crew chief change make a big enough difference for them to have a productive Chase?  Only time will tell.  Harvick does have some unfinished business in the Chase after coming in third the past two years, but with zero wins on the year, finishing the season out with a couple of wins to head into 2013 may be a more realistic goal.  Harvick has an average finish of 13.7 and has 8 wins at the Chase tracks.

8th - Matt Kenseth: After being at the points lead for much of the season, Kenseth dropped to 8th due to only producing one win in the regular season.  Although the team said Kenseth's coming departure to Joe Gibbs Racing would not be a distraction, competitiveness has tapered off in the past few weeks.  Kenseth could do well in the Chase, but with RFR preparing for Stenhouse Jr. to take over that ride and Kenseth preparing commercialse for his new sponsor for next year (Home Depot), it is not likely.  Kenseth has an average finish of 14.8 and has 8 wins at Chase tracks.

7th - Dale Earnhardt Jr.:  Dale Jr. enters the Chase in 7th place, the exact same spot he finished last year.  Although he has an average finish of 16.6 at the Chase tracks, he has 10 wins on them.  He only posted one top 5 in last year's chase, but with an average finish of 6.1 on downforce tracks this season, his 2012 Chase is bound to be more productive.

6th - Clint Bowyer:  In his first year in a MWR Toyota, Bowyer makes the Chase as one of two MWR teams in the Chase.  Although many people thought he would not do as well in his first year at a "weaker" team, his old team, RCR, is only sending one car to the Chase.  Bowyer has some good tracks in the Chase and proved with his win last weekend at Richmond that he could be a force in the Chase outcome.  Bowyer has an average finish of 14.6 and 4 wins at the Chase tracks.

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How Do You Get Your NASCAR?

My how time changes.  We live in a world that never stops turning, constantly moving and ever changing.  I recall sitting down to watch a race on Sunday and listening intently to the prerace show, because that was the only "insider news" you could get.  Yeah there were newspaper articles and a couple select magazines that covered the sport, but for the most part the half hour or so prior to the green flag was where you saw the personalities behind the wheels and behind the pit wall.

Even prior to those days, races may or may not have been televised and even further still, the only NASCAR you could get was by rumor mill or by going to the race.  Imagine how daunting Jimmie Johnson would be if all you heard were tales of his wins and his five championships.  I would image kids would assume he were 10 ft tall and bullet proof.  Of course, some of his fans and even some on-air personalities currently think that way.

Today, NASCAR can get to you a plethora of ways.  You can get an instant NASCAR fix through Twitter, Facebook, or by surfing NASCAR sites on your smartphone.  You can also catch NASCAR shows on ESPN or even on the SPEED channel.

It never ceases to amaze me just how many fans who are die hard never access the inside information that can be had by following drivers, crew chiefs, spotters or even track personnel on Twitter and/or Facebook.  When I personally got on Twitter, I was shocked at how open and personable some of the drivers and team members were.  You literally could have knocked me over with a feather the first time I had a question answered by Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, or even Mrs. Harvick herself.

Personability and being able to relate to the sports stars is, in my opinion, of utmost importance if NASCAR is to expand its current fan base, reach new markets, and even fill the stands week in and week out.  Social media, to me, provides more insight into the sport than any other avenue.

So how do YOU get your NASCAR?  Do you use Twitter (if so give me a follow @the_Bumpdrafter) or Facebook?  Do you read multiple NASCAR blogs?  Tell us who you recommend following!

FYI: Some of my personal favorites on Twitter are the Harvicks, Jimmie Johnson, definitely Brad Keselowski, @NASCARCASM, and ESPN's Marty Smith among others.

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Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

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Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


Be sure to like my Bumpdrafter page on Facebook and follow the_Bumpdrafter on Twitter!

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The Best New Driver/Crew Chief Pairing In 2012?

The 2011 Silly Season has been quite a busy one.  Usually there are drivers sliding from this team to that so fast you can hardly keep up.  While that has not quite been the case this year, there have been a multitude of crew chief changes for drivers that struggled in 2011, and in a couple cases for drivers that did not struggle.

In 2011 there were several new driver/crew chief combinations, most of them were in the Hendrick Motorsports garage.  It was definitely interesting to watch which new combination would win and how each of them would deal with problems that arose.  Although the Gordon/Gustafson combination would top most lists, the Earnhardt/Letarte duo definitely did better than most assumed they would.

In 2012 there will be no less than 11 new driver/crew chief combinations starting in February at the Daytona 500.  There will be at least 3 or 4 of these new combos that will visit victory lane, and no doubt 3 or 4 of them will make the Chase.  Will there be any surprises?  Will any of the new teams gel quickly and become the next Jimmie and Chad or Jeff and Ray?  Well that may be a long shot, but below I have listed the best three of these new combinations along with how they will impress in 2012.

1.  Hamlin / Grubb-  The #11 FedEx Toyota will begin the year with a driver that faded last year after his dominant run in 2010, and a crew chief with something to prove after being let go a couple weeks after winning the Sprint Cup Championship.  Will Hamlin/Grubb win a race?  Without a doubt.  Grubb has never had a season without a win, and Hamlin has never had a full season without a win.  Make the Chase?  Of course.  Hamlin has never finished outside the top 12 in a full season and Grubb has never finished outside the top 15.  Given Hamlin's ability to put a great Chase run together as he did in 2010, combined with Grubb's recent success at Chase race domination, be prepared for a strong charge in the final races of 2012 by Denny Hamlin.

2.  Harvick / Wilson- After the 2011 season, Shane Wilson has been moved over from the #33, formerly driven by Clint Bowyer.  Although Harvick and last year's crew chief, Todd Berrier, had some great success, including becoming the "Closer" and having a great run in the 2010 Chase to challenge for the Sprint Cup Championship, RCR has elected to move Wilson to the #29 for 2012.  Wilson will be working with many of the same people, so all that will change from last year will be the driver, and moving from Bowyer to Harvick is a step up.  Shane Wilson only has 2 Sprint Cup wins, but he does have 14 Nationwide wins, 13 of which were driven by, you guessed it, Kevin Harvick.  With the same crew, same garage, and having already won together, it won't take long for these two to develop the chemistry needed to compete.  Oh, and 7 of those Nationwide wins the two had were at Chase tracks.

3.  Stewart / Addington-  After almost every championship win, the winning team changes a little.  Very few championship teams have been able to field the exact same team in February.  However, that particular type of change has not happened to a championship team since owner Billy Hagan replaced Dale Inman, arguably the greatest crew chief ever, with Steve Hmiel for driver Terry Labonte after winning the 1984 championship.  I could not find the details about how Inman left the position open, someone older than I will have to answer that one.  What I do know is that Labonte did not repeat his success of 1984.  Don't get me wrong, Hmiel was no slouch, but changing the crew chief is no small change.  With that said, Stewart has proven he has plenty of drive left, and after coming up short with Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch, Addington is sure to have something to prove.  Addington has a knack for pulling a rabbit out of his hat and Stewart has more determination that most drivers, so look for these two to get at least a couple of wins and a Chase appearance.

With all of these changes, and more changes to come, February will be a busy time in both North Carolina and Daytona.  Will any of the new duos become the next super team?  Who knows.  Either way 2012 is coming soon, and all of these teams are definitely working to make this season a wild one.

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Returning To Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Strength, Not Plate Tracks, Short Tracks!

With last weeks disappointing 25th finish at Talladega, many Dale Jr. fans were left with not much hope for the end of the season.  They began their work week grumbling about NASCAR, Team Orders, Tandem (Two Car) racing, and dadgum "laying back."  Well, maybe I'm speaking mostly for myself, but from the replies I received from my last post I don't think I am alone.

Most Dale Earnhardt Jr. fans, and other NASCAR fans in general, don't like to see their driver falling to the back to simply ride around till the finish.  We want to see white knuckle racing, passing on the outside, and threading of needles.  We have a dry, bitter taste in our mouth that is the residue of two-car racing and we are hoping for something to wash that flavor away.

Well, help may be here.  This week NASCAR returns to Martinsville Speedway and although many people equate Dale Earnhardt Jr. with the restrictor plate tracks of Daytona and Talladega, where he has 7 wins, his real strength is on a much shorter circuit.  Yes, although he only has 4 wins at the sport's 3 short  tracks, they are 3 of his 5 best tracks for average finish; and the other two are the intermediate tracks of Atlanta and Texas.

Dale Earnhardt's top 5 tracks (in average finish) are 1 - Bristol (11.7), 2 - Atlanta (12.8), 3 - Martinsville (13.3), 4 - Richmond (14.4), and 5 - Texas (14.5).  His average finish at both Talladega and Daytona is 15.0.  Of course this is mainly due to the unpredictable nature of the plate tracks, but Dale Jr. has definitely shown an ability in the past to keep his car clean until the end of the race and apply front bumper when needed: two traits that are paramount to good finishes at short tracks.

Martinsville is a strong suit in general for Hendrick Motorsports and is also where Dale Jr. was passed late in the spring to finish runner-up to Kevin Harvick.  I'm sure if Junior can make it to 2nd with 10 laps or so to go this weekend that his fans will forget about last week, especially if he is chasing down the 29.  I am also certain that if given the chance to chase a car down for the lead late this weekend that Dale Jr. will definitely let out some aggression from his late race frustration from last week.

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Harvick-Busch Adding Spice To A Lively 2011

The 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Season has already been a lively one. There have been angry Colombians (Juan Pablo Montoya), steaming engineers (Newman), cursing on the "In Car" radio (almost all drivers), and an appearance by the next Donald Trump (Truex firing his pit crew). Heck, even Jimmie Johnson has been pissy a few times with Chad Knaus on the radio. Shocking, I know!!

Now, to top it off, the two most volatile personalities in the garage, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, have decided to yet again fill the "NASCAR Bad Boy" role. The only problem is that they apparently decided to do so at the same time.

The two, as any fan knows, got into each other multiple times at Darlington, only to end up making a show on pit lane. The show even included a shove through the window by Harvick only to see Busch push his car into the pit wall. Maybe Busch was in "Bumpdrafter" mode??

The excellent TV has not stopped to this point. This week, the two met again via NASCAR hauler and had separate press conferences to answer about the closed door meetings and on-track horse play. Perhaps NASCAR wanted to capitalize on all of the hubbub. Either way, the two ended up throwing some more verbal "punches" through the press conferences, proving that the dislike is not likely to end any time soon.

As for more on-track issues, NASCAR will likely be as tough on these two as they were on JPM and Newman last week considering they are on a 4 week probation. Whether the 29 and 18 find each other at Dover or not, there will probably be plenty of carnage to go around as the "Monster Mile" is notorious for chewing drivers up and spitting them out in front of coming traffic.

Will there be more tempers this Sunday? I wouldn't bet against it.

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Can Hendrick Motorsports Return To Victory Lane At Talladega?

No other owner has quite the amount of restrictor plate success in his garage as Rick Hendrick. Sure, Richard Childress can boast a good bit of success, both by the late Dale Earnhardt and in recent years with Kevin Harvick and Clint Boyer. However, he still comes up short of Hendrick’s 17 wins at Daytona and Talladega. If you add the wins that Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Mark Martin had before coming to HMS, the team has the experience of 26 wins heading into this weeks race at Talladega.

What is somewhat surprising of late at the restrictor plate tracks is that HMS has not visited victory lane at either track in 14 races. From July of 2001 to October of 2007, the trio of Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. won 15 of 26 plate races. Yet since 2007 they have been relegated to doing post race interviews barely within earshot of the victory party.

Even worse, in the 7 races since an HMS win on a restrictor plate track, the for teams have only added up a total of 6 top 5 finishes out of a possible 28. The good news for 88 fans is that 3 of those top 5’s were posted by their driver. The bad news is that the last time Junior posted a top 5 at Talladega was two years and four races ago.

As if the HMS teams needed any more discouragement for the coming race, they again have to return to 2 car pack racing. Since it started in 2010, the new “form” of plate racing has not smiled on HMS drivers. Although Dale Jr. and Jeff Gordon showed some strength in the season opener at Daytona, they never were able to dominate the way they have so often. It is highly likely that, unless they want to rely on being lucky like the rest of the field, they will have to adapt some new strategy to regain their plate dominance.

If there is anyone out of the HMS stable that has concreted his Talladega strategy, it may be Jimmy Johnson. Although he has not had a top 5 there in 4 years, he has repeatedly had a solid top 10 in each of the last 4 chase races there. His strategy there seems to have been survive to the last lap then get all you can. No doubt this strategy is what Johnson will go with this fall, but in the current season where wins are premium to solidify a chase berth, look for some aggressive racing from each of the HMS drivers this weekend.

Be sure to follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter !
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Who Will Be The Real “Gunslinger” This Weekend?

Entering the seventh race of the year, many of the top tier teams in the Sprint Cup Series are getting hungry for their first race of the season. All of the teams in the top ten who are looking to win have had previous success at Texas Motor Speedway, except Juan Pablo Montoya, who has made great strides on downforce tracks in the past year. No doubt, Texas may hold more beating and banging that last weeks race at Martinsville.

Of course, many drivers tend to be a little more gingerly with their car when they are entering a corner at over 200 mph, but they have also never been in a season quite like this one. With the change in the points system this year, drivers are now seeing what Kevin Harvick is experiencing; if you can get two or three wins early in the year, you can spend the rest of the season preparing for Jimmie Johnson and the Chase. Therefore, be prepared for sparks to fly under the lights Saturday night!

The number one hungry driver that would like to notch his first win this weekend, is probably Jimmie Johnson. He has had a couple of races slip by him to this point, and he is eager to finish anywhere ahead of the 29. Don’t get me wrong, Johnson keeps a cool exterior, and hardly seems rushed to get to victory lane. However, the main thing any driver hates to see during a string of success is a loss of momentum. Be sure that Johnson will attempt to flex some muscle this weekend to reassert his dominance.

Surely a top driver on most lists to expect tough racing from this weekend should be Dale Earnhardt Jr. He has been in or near the top ten at the end of every race this year except at Daytona where he was involved in a late race wreck. Top that off with the fact that he had to watch a black 29 car pull away from him with a lap to go last weekend, keeping him from gaining his first win at Martinsville and his first Cup win in 100 races. Earnhardt Jr. is beyond hungry, that along with his ability on fast tracks with tight racing, and he should be fun to watch this weekend.

One other top ten driver to keep an eye on this weekend would be Matt Kenseth. He has one of the best average finishes at Texas Motor Speedway, which since 2005 is an astounding average of 6th place. With his ability to sneak to the front in any race, he may be able to give Harvick a challenge for a late race lead change. Kenseth is not having a blockbuster season so far, but it has been solid. Not only that, his finishes are beginning to get better, and momentum may be paying him a visit.

At any rate, whether one of these drivers wins, or even if Harvick can pull off three wins in a row, there is bound to be some bent sheetmetal. Someone keep a good eye on Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton.


Be sure to follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Earnhardt Jr. Building Steam; Harvick Making A Name

This weekends race at Martinsville Speedway brought the great ending we have all become accustomed to at the half mile track. Yet again, after 500 laps, it all came down to two or three cars beating and banging for the win. It did not, however, involve the winners of 14 of the last 16 races there. Due to ill handling cars and late-race penalties, Johnson, Hamlin, and Gordon were all relegated to watching the finish by way of replay since they couldn't see it from their "seat."

Although each of the three had a good race, along with near-winner, Kyle Busch, they did not factor in to the last run after the final caution. Instead, Busch's car, sluggish on restarts, gave way to a great finish between a resurgent Dale Earnhardt Jr. and a heavy footed Kevin Harvick.

Harvick, fresh off of a win at Auto Club Speedway, is currently picking up the pace he had at the end of 2010 and gaining speed toward an eventual Chase berth. He and his team are the first out of last year's contenders to hit on all eight cylinders and is unlikely to slow down anytime soon.

Earnhardt Jr. has been running a touch slower than Harvick, but is bye many measures gaining ground. He began this season with more questions than answers, learning a new team, a new crew chief, and hopeful for a return to the success he tasted earlier in his career.

The Earnhardt-Letarte duo has taken off much quicker than anyone, possibly even Rick Hendrick himself, dreamed it would. The two are communicating well and are finishing much better than they start each weekend. If the 88 team can get a grasp on their qualifying setups and get a good start, the transformation could be closer to complete.

Coming into the final laps of the race, Earnhardt Jr. had battled from his 26th starting spot to the top five. He did so slowly, position by position, biding his time and taking care of his car. For quite a while, a race like this would have left Jr. frayed and unoptomistic, yet Sunday he was concentrated and poised. The mental recooperation is definitely coming along.

Harvick definitely had his sights set on the bumper of the 88, chasing him down from almost a straightaway back. He took little time getting around Kyle Busch, and was again set to be the “Closer.” He has definitely earned his new name, and I think he is quite comfortable coming from behind. Fitting he took over his current ride after the death of Dale Earnhardt.

To be totally honest, I am sure Earnhardt, the father, would have been just as glad to be the “bad guy” Sunday, as Harvick said he felt he was bye taking the lead from Earnhardt Jr. I highly doubt, however, that Harvick left as much paint from his bumper and fender on the 88 as his predecessor would have.


For more by Joseph Davis, visit The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Harvick On The Rise...

As he completed his outside pass on Jimmie Johnson Sunday, Kevin Harvick must have felt a huge difference from the end of last year. Toward the end of the Chase, last fall, Harvick had a better finishing average than all other racers… except Jimmie Johnson. No matter how hard he charged late in the race, he always seemed to get one view at the checkered flag, the 48’s rear spoiler.

So far, this season, Harvick has had decent finishes, including a 4th and a 6th place finish. However, disappointment at Daytona where he finished 42nd, and a mediocre 17th at Phoenix had him 15th in the points heading into Auto Club Speedway in California on Sunday. He returned to form, though, bye charging from mid pack to a late race win.

His first place finish moved him to 9th in Sprint Cup points, just 30 points behind leader Carl Edwards. Although it is very early to talk about points, the fact that Harvick is beginning to place marks in his win column for the year will only help him when the Chase begins and drivers are placed by number of wins. Have no doubt, when the Chase starts this fall, Harvick will be in it, and he will be charging even harder than 2010. The only place he will be satisfied seeing Jimmie Johnson will be in his rear view mirror, growing smaller.

Of course, that is no small task. Since its inception, no driver/crew chief team has had the Chase figured out better than Johnson and Knaus. They have perfected the art of preparation during the season for winning during the final ten races. During his five championship runs, Johnson has won 13 out of 50 chase races. That is over 25% of the Chase races.

During those same years, Harvick has only 2 wins during the Chase, a stat he well definitely have to change if he wants to be the one to dethrone “Five Time” before he becomes “Six Time.” Harvick’s problem in recent years has been that he has faded late in the season, due to a mix of lack of focus and team issues. In 2010, however, he was strong during the Chase, but came up short mostly due to a couple of stumbles early in the Chase.

Another stat he will have to best is that of no stumbles in the Chase. During the past five Chases, Johnson has had two finishes of 30th or worse and four finishes of 20th or worse in 50 races. That is almost as amazing as his Chase win total. If someone wishes to beat Johnson, they will truly have to race a flawless ten races – no DNF’s, and charge back from any adversity.

It is early yet, but it seems there are more teams preparing for the Chase this year and some may have caught on to the Knaus/Johnson recipe for Chase success. If not, I am certain that they will be glad to give just one more lesson…


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Early Points: Surprises High And Low

Yes, yes, I know, it is way too early to get caught up in any discussion about points standings with only three races in the books for 2011. Too bad, I will anyway. The reason being, there are several drivers who are surprisingly high and several who are surprisingly low, even after only three races. Although there is much time, and assuredly the top ten staples will return to the top ten for the most part, with the new points system and so many changes in NASCAR, any differences should be noted and watched.

In any off season predictions of this years Chase contenders, you would have found Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, and Kevin Harvick. You also probably saw Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, and Clint Boyer. The average current points position for these seven drivers is 25.7 and they are an average 52 points behind leader Kurt Busch. Now, under the old system, 52 points would not be much, but in the current system, those are comparable to about 200 points in the old system.

Being behind that far and winning the championship has not happened since Terry Labonte in 1996. Labonte was 211 points behind Dale Jarrett in the old point system after Richmond (the third race that year.) However, that was due mostly to Jarrett’s dominating start to the season. That year, he began with one win and three straight top five finishes and was 86 points ahead of second place Jeff Burton. Also, with the implementation of the “Chase”, a huge lead shrinks quite quickly.

With that said, these seven drivers definitely know that they need some good runs and they need them now! Look for these drivers to have a good deal of damage to their front bumper and right side as they root their way to the front at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The surprises near the top of the points standings are none other than Juan Pablo Montoya, Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Although a few predictions may have had Montoya and Earnhardt Jr. in their top twelve for the Chase, I doubt any of those prognosticators would have thought Junior and Montoya would have had such good finishes so early in the season.

None of the predictors would have picked Menard and Allmendiger for the top ten, and definitely not so early. With Menard starting a new team at RCR and Allmendinger racing for a rebuilt RPM, the two drivers would have been happy with mid-teen consistent finishes at this point. Yet they have been competitive in the top ten and near the top five at each track so far.

Of course, the one factor yet to play its little hand in the stats of this blog post has yet to rear its head. Time. A few races will make much clear. Will the perennial favorites move back up with a few good finishes? Or will the surprises at the top trip over a couple of disappointing finishes and not regain their current composure?

That, friends, is why we turn the racing on each and every week!


See more from Joseph Davis at The Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Hard Fought Finishes All Around

Yesterday’s 500k race at Phoenix International Raceway looked like a group of short track racers trying to race at Talladega. Drivers were beating and banging on each other, and when a wreck happened, many cars became involved. At just after mid-race, a Talladega style “big one” happened due to a spin by Brian Vickers which may or may not have been caused by Matt Kenseth. I don’t want to take sides.

The race finished with a long-overdue win by Jeff Gordon who snapped the longest winless streak of his career (66 races). Gordon cemented his win with a late race pass on Kyle Busch in which he “loosened up” the hard nosed driver who himself was trying for his second 3 series weekend sweep.

Both of these drivers, and a few others, had top ten finishes on a day that some would have settled for less. Kyle Busch was involved in a wreck with Carl Edwards earlier in the race which sent Edwards airborne off the inside concrete curb. Busch battled most of the race with an ill-handling racecar.

Finishing third, Jimmie Johnson battled his way to the front throughout the race from a 28th starting spot. Much of Johnson’s race was spent dodging the carnage of other cars. Although he led briefly, Johnson did not have the car to challenge for the win, but in true Johnson form, he always finds his way into the top five by the end of the race.

Kevin Harvick, who was not so “Happy”, finished fourth after clawing his way forward after pit stop miscues sent him to the back, steaming all the way. Two thirds of the way through the race, Harvick seemed to settle in and began making his way to the front. Harvick did lead one lap and received the ever important bonus point.

Further back, A.J. Allmendinger and Dale Earnhardt Jr. both finished out with much needed top ten finishes. For Allmendinger, a ninth place finish at Phoenix could give he and his RPM teammate, Marcos Ambrose, a little footing to begin the 2011 season. After all of the off season changes with RPM being shut down, bought, and reopened, those teams need all of the momentum they can get. Both Allmendinger and Ambrose were competitive and around the top ten all race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. stayed toward the back of the top twenty for most of the race, after starting a dismal 35th. Junior quickly moved up to the top twenty, but due to wrecks and a loose wheel with less than 100 laps to go, he became a lap down and hoping for no cautions. With the luck he has not had in a couple years, the field cycled through green flag pit stops, and with a late race caution, Junior restarted in the top 15. Junior battled with Denny Hamlin in the final few laps and came away with his first top ten of 2011.


Read more by Joseph Davis at the Spotter Stand and follow him on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #4- Richard Childress Racing

2010 had many ups and downs for the RCR stable.  They had a title contender, a driver trying to have a break through season, and a driver looking to remain relevant.

For Harvick, 2010 will leave a sour taste in his mouth for years.  Had there not been a Chase format.  Had he been given more points for winning the regular season.  Had Jimmie Johnson's hauler just not made it to the track...  Harvick did, however, have a phenomenal season.  He led the points into the Chase, had 3 wins, and had an average finish of 4.0 in the last 5 races.  Harvick will come out in 2011 with a "chip" on his shoulder, which may not bode well for those ahead of him on-track.

Bowyer had both a great and aggravating 2010.  For example, he had 2 wins and a 2nd during the chase that sandwich 4 finishes between 15th and 38th.  Bowyer had 12 finishes between 12th and 25th, 10 of which he finished on the lead lap.  If Bowyer wants to break through to the top level of Sprint Cup drivers, he will have to transform some of those mid pack finishes into top ten finishes.  The start of 2011 could go either way for Bowyer who was both hot and cold during the Chase of 2010.  Hopefully, however, his 150 point penalty toward the end of 2010 will give him some motivation.

Although most drivers would trade their season for Jeff Burton's 2010, he was one of the most disappointed at the end of 2010.  Yes, he made the Chase, but with no wins and an absolutely dismal Chase performance, Burton was glad to see 2010 end.  Burton did have some good moments, however, he had 8 out of 11 finishes in the top 12 from June through August and 2010 was much better than the 17th place points finish in 2009.  Look for Burton to break back into the win column in 2011, but possibly missing the Chase if he cannot reproduce the success he had this Summer.

A newcomer to RCR in 2011, Paul Menard, has finally got some success to build upon and something to build with.  During the Chase, Menard was constantly battling to get in the top 10, although he sometimes faded at the end.  In 2011, Menard will have tools behind him he did not have with RPM nor when he was the third car at the old DEI.  However, great support demands success, and Menard will have to improve upon the 7 top ten finishes he has in the last 4 years of racing.  I look for some initial success for Menard, due to excitement of being with RCR, but not much for 2011 as a whole.

Look for two of the four RCR drivers to make the Chase (unless it is expanded to 15).  Kevin Harvick will definitely make the Chase, so Bowyer and Burton will have to scrap it out for that other spot!

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