Winning Races Is More Important In Search For Cup

Prior to NASCAR making recent changes to their points structure, many people, fans and drivers alike, made a plea to make winning more imperative to win the Sprint Cup.  Many said the added points for wins entering the Chase just was not enough.  Well, apparently the changes NASCAR made has worked.

For the past nine years (2005-2013) the NASCAR champion has had a season win total of 5 or more.  The last time a champion had less than 5 was in 2004 when Kurt Busch won the championship with 3 wins.  Of course, much of the Chase came about after the 2003 season when Kenseth won the Cup with only 1 win.  The average win total of the champion from 1999-2004 was 4.2.

With Johnson totaling 6 wins this season on his way to his 6th championship, the average win total for the champion since 2004 is 6.1. 

Drivers and teams alike are striving more to gain wins through the summer stretch to amass larger bonus point totals heading into the Chase.  In seasons past, teams would be more likely to be conservative through the summer in order to maintain their standing heading into the final stretch of the year. 

Yes, every driver want's to win, but no driver is going to press a 10th place car to win, chancing a bad finish, unless he thinks it is worth the risk.  In years past, it was much more worth it to maintain a solid foundation for an end of the year run for the title.

Not every result anticipated by NASCAR after their changes to the points system has come to fruition, but it looks fairly safe to say that their will be no more 1 win champions.

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Biggest Surprise And Biggest Dissapointment Of 2013

With every coming season, pundits and fans alike have their preconceptions about how the season will go.  Who will be strong?  Who will be looking for a ride at the end of the year?  And will any newcomers stake out their place at the table?

This year had many story lines, and as I included in my previous post, some of them were not so good for NASCAR as a whole.  One definite story line throughout the season was the constant ups and downs of the Penske Racing Miller Lite team and their driver Brad Keselowski. 

In 2012, the 2 team won 5 races, 2 of which came in the Chase.  They never fell below 12th in the points after the Talladega spring race, which began their gradual climb to the top.  And finally, the Miller Lite team had no DNF's after the first race of the year.  As a whole, the team was consistent, communicated efficiently, and was constantly a threat to win.

After all the banquets, parties, and appearances on late night talk shows, Keselowski and Penske Racing began the process of changing over to Ford from the departing Dodge Racing.  All seemed well as the season began: Keselowski opened up with 4 straight top 4 finishes and 7 top 10's out of the first 8 races. 

Then came Richmond.

Keselowski finished the 3/4 mile track 8 laps down and in 33rd position.  All seemed fine from the outside, but problems adjusting to the new Ford front for the Gen 6 car and other engineering changes for Ford power plants no doubt added to bad luck.  Over the next few races and then during the summer run up to the Chase, the 2 team had 3 top 5 finishes and 4 top 10's in 17 races.  In 2012 they had 2 wins, 8 top 5's, and 11 top 10's over the same stretch.

The frustration was clear.  Team radio chatter showed a break down in communication almost on a weekly basis.  Despite their best efforts, the Miller Lite team came up shy of the Chase cutoff and could not defend their championship, earning them the "Biggest Disappointment" title for 2013.

Entering speedweeks in 2013, most people took for granted that the dominant teams of the season would be, as always, the Hendrick, Roush, Penske, Gibbs, Stewart-Haas and Childress teams, perhaps adding some success by Michael Waltrip Racing.  Although many people in and out of the garage had and will have respect for the driving abilities of Kurt Busch, successfully driving a single car team to the Chase was not thought of as a probability.

2013 would prove interesting for the Furniture Row Racing team.  Their new driver, fresh off season a season of aggravation driving for Phoenix Racing, was coming into the season with the knowledge that if he did not succeed with the 78, and did not do so without controversial on or off track events, he may well be finished.  That is, at least, for the top tier teams.

This season saw some of the brash older Busch, but never crossing the line, always careful to stay away from the press when he couldn't control his tongue.  On track, Busch was back to his old form.  He didn't quite pull off a win for FRR, but a Chase berth for a single car team is just shy of a championship.  After 1 top 5 finish and 5 top 10's for Phoenix Racing, Busch posted 11 top 5's and 16 top 10's in the 78, including 3 top 5's in the Chase.

Although he has gone winless for two straight seasons now, Busch did win a ride for a top tier team, Stewart Haas Racing, and along with it, the "Biggest Surprise" title for the 2013 season.

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NASCAR Goes (Off) Road Racing...

Road courses are like the Busch brothers to most NASCAR fans: either you love them or hate them.  They are much more technical, much more prone to fuel mileage strategy, and tend to favor a handful of drivers that have more experience road racing.  However, most NASCAR fans cannot discount the fact that when the cars are side by side, the opportunity for fender-banging, cut tires, and more 'gritty' racing is high.

Sunday afternoon was no different.  While much of the first half of the race was fairly inconsequential, with few lead changes and no real drama, the end of the race featured popular drivers spinning, side by side racing, and dirt flying in the air as Keselowski and Ambrose commenced an all-or-nothing dash to the checkered flag.

Both of the drivers offered to add to the paint job of the other's racecar on the final lap, yet neither wrecked the other, a result pointed out by Keselowski in his post race interview.  After the two of them made their way past Kyle Busch who was losing control after running through an oil slick laid down by the #47 of Bobby Labonte, they each ran off the road in the interloop.  After Keselowski regained the rear bumper of Ambrose, he gave a slight bump which allowed him to move to the left side of the #9  heading into the last corner, a right hander.  Ambrose then ran Keselowski up toward the wall on the exit of the corner, without making contact, giving himself the momentum to capture the checkered flag.

During the final few laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. spun along with Jeff Gordon, ending the hopes of top 10 finishes for both.  Busch (Kyle), who spun after contact with the #2, finished 7th.  Also, the race also saw problems for Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and more.

The race at Watkins Glen International generally has more action, mostly due to the sharp right-handed turn at the end of the front stretch, along with the tricky interloop on the back-stretch.  Both of these spots allow aggressive drivers to outbreak other drivers and get side by side, hoping to make it through the coming turn.

Whether you enjoy road racing and want more of these races or cannot stand them and prefer ovals any time, Sunday's race ended with a bang.

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Is Rubbin' Still Racin'?

Rubbing is racing.  We have all heard it and 99% of us has said it on multiple occasions.  Since NASCAR began, quarter panels and bumpers were made to take a beating.  Different from the open wheel racing of Indycar, NASCAR promotes close racing and in many cases a gentle nudge is the only way to set up a pass.

This rough-neck racing has made for driver spats, fan fights, and many trips to the NASCAR hauler.  The whole while, NASCAR has expanded its following, multiplied its marketing, and carved its place among the top sports franchises in the world.

However, over the past few years, blatant wrecking and on and off track retaliation have followed NASCAR's famous "drivers, have at it" rule.  NASCAR has clarified and penalized yet most drivers have not quite taken the point.  This past week, especially in the Nationwide Series, has been case in point.  Drivers have opted to simply wreck someone out of the way rather than loosen them up and take the spot.

Perhaps they need to be reminded of "Harry Hogge's" quote from "Days of Thunder", the WHOLE quote.  He said, "No, no, he didn't slam you, he didn't bump you, he didn't nudge you... he *rubbed* you.  And rubbin, son, is racin'."  Not slamming, rubbing.

As much as it pains me to say, the best example of "rubbin" this past week had to have been Kurt Busch.  Yes, I said it, and yes it hurt.  He rubbed the bumper of Clint Bowyer's #15 Toyota on multiple occasions coming to the end of the race.  Although I waited for it to happen on every turn, he never punted him off course.  Yes, he did lose, but he did not lose what little bit of dignity he is trying to regain.  I don't know if he gained any fans on Sunday, but Kurt Busch definitely regained some respect from drivers and fans alike. 

Perhaps Busch has remembered one of Hogge's other quotes from the movie, "Oh he can drive. He can drive beyond the limits of the tires, the engine, the car or anything else. If the sum' b___ listened to me we wouldn't hardly ever lose a race!" 

I would be remiss if I did not include a quote for Jacques Villeneuve.  I wouldn't be surprised if Danica Patrick is heard on the radio at Montreal (road course) quoting "Russ Wheeler" with a " if he comes near me I'm gonna put him in the wall. Simple as that."

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Which Way To Daytona??

Do you remember a certain Daytona 500 moment as your favorite?  Many people point towards such legendary moments as the fight in the grass, Dale Earnhardt's win in '98, and Darrell Waltrip's 500 win as some of their most memorable moments in the sport.  My personal Daytona 500 memory that spurred me from just a fan to a fanatic was the 1997 Daytona 500 finish.  No, not because of the 1-2-3 Hendrick Motorsports finish with Jeff Gordon winning.  At that time I couldn't stand the 24.  I loved that ending because after the big wreck that took Dale Earnhardt out of contention, sending him down the racetrack on his hood, he still had the grit to get back in the car and drive it to the finish line.

The Daytona 500 is a true roller coaster of emotions for everyone from fan to tire changer to driver.  You look forward to the race for weeks, have the build up of speedweeks, and by the time the race is over you have either dug your nails into the La-Z-Boy, yelled at the television, or totally ran your spouse out of the room.  It is a drug that we cannot do without but so long, and I need a fix.

The 2012 Daytona 500 is even more anticipated due to several reasons.  For one, we have just come off the closest points finish in NASCAR history which ended a crazy 2011 Chase to the Cup.  We are all eager to see who comes out fast, who sputters, and who downright flops.  Second, with the late Superbowl date this year, the beginning of the NASCAR season is a week late.  I know, most of you did not know we had any two sport stars driving this year, but apparently NASCAR drivers are among the few in the United States that can still afford an NFL ticket, so their presence, and money, was needed elsewhere.

For blogger, opinion-givers, Monday morning crew chiefs, and the rest, there is only so much prognosticating one can do for 3 months.  I have heard enough, and written enough (read for yourself), about Kurt Busch changing teams, all the crew chief swaps, and whether or not Dale Jr will win this year.  Lets see some green flags already!  Now don't get me wrong!  I am a NASCAR fan and as such love to make my opinion known, and will probably not slow down in doing so.  But I am more than eager to be glued to the television or standing in my seat at a racetrack.

So as you prepare for the coming week or so of speeding cars, NASCAR rule changes, grumbling about restrictor plates and the rest, just think back over the past two months and be glad that finally, yes finally, it is time for some racing!

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Is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Getting Too Old To Compete?

Ok, it is just over 3 weeks to Daytona.  The NASCAR season is about to begin.  The front stretch of Daytona International Speedway is cooling down from the 24 hours of racing last weekend at the Rolex 24.  It will not be long until Speedweeks arrives, Dale Earnhardt Jr. does well in either Daytona 500 qualifying, the Gatorade qualifying races or both and Junior haters will begin saying he is overrated, incapable, in over his head or any number of other detractions. 

I never have understood why people so fervently hate Dale Earnhardt Jr.  I know he has a ton of fans that can, admittedly, become obnoxious at times.  I know he has had a ton of coverage and will continue to do so.  But just what is it that makes their blood boil?

I am sure a large part of the anger is the TV, print, and internet coverage he gets.  Let’s admit it:  programs get more views, articles get more reads, and blogs get more clicks when the name Dale Earnhardt Jr. comes into play.  But do the Jr. haters think their driver deserves more attention?  Perhaps!  However, when asked, most of them will not tell you who their favorite driver is.  Odd.

One of the main things Jr. haters throw out is that Dale Earnhardt Jr. isn’t getting any younger.  I have even seen this little thought grace the lines on ESPN, NASCAR.com, and many other blogs.  So just how hold is he and is he past his prime, which the Jr. hater would say never came?

Dale Earnhardt Jr. was born October 10, 1974.  Entering the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season he will be a ripe old 37.  He has no Sprint Cup Championships and 18 Sprint Cup wins to show for 12 years of full time Sprint Cup racing.  Will he amass a huge sum of wins?  Can he win a championship or more than one?  Or is he just a few years away from climbing from the car, grabbing hold to his walker, and hobbling off into the sunset?

Well, let’s compare Dale Jr. to some great racers from the past.  I know most people, especially Jr. haters, will compare him to his father.  Comparing someone to the best is interesting, but not always sensible.  Let’s see how Dale Earnhardt Jr. compares to some other drivers, such as Dale Jarrett and Cale Yarborough.

I know that many fans would not consider Jarrett one of the greatest, but he is a past champion and had 32 Cup wins.  Earnhardt Jr. is entering his 13^th year in Cup and has 18 wins and 0 championships.  Entering his 13^th season, Jarrett also had 18 wins and 0 championships.  No, Dale Jarrett was not 37.  Indeed, he was 42.

So just how did Jarrett fare in the 5 years after?  Well, he had 13 wins and 1 championship, with an average season finish of 9^th.

Cale Yarborough is widely thought of as one of the toughest NASCAR drivers ever.  It is often said that he could manhandle any car in any situation.  It is no shock then that he was able to have success in his later years.  Yarborough raced in 284 races winning 31 times over a 18 year period before winning his first championship at the age of 37.  Yarborough went on to win 40 times, 3 consecutive championships, and had an average points finish of 2^nd over the next 5 years.

No, don’t blast me yet.  I am not saying that Earnhardt Jr. is on the edge of a run like Yarborough had.  Nor do I think he is as tough.  But the simple fact is that 37 is not entirely that old in NASCAR.

Yes, there have been huge gains by young drivers over the past 15 years or so.  But handfuls of wins aside, Sprint Cup Championships don’t tend to be won by the “Young Guns”.  For example, there has not been a Champion younger than 25 since Jeff Gordon did it at 23 in 1995.  On top of that, it has only been done that one time since Bill Rexford did it at 23 in NASCAR’s second year, 1950 (which was, by the way, more impressive since he did not race in 2 of the 19 races.)  There have only been 11 champions under the age of 30 since NASCAR’s inception 63 seasons ago, most recently Kurt Busch in 2004.

One other number: the average age of the Sprint Cup Champion over the last 10 years is 32.

No, Earnhardt Jr is not too old to win.  No, he is not too old to win the championship.  Debate his skills.  Hate the attention he gets.  Say he is the worst driver in the garage (stretching it quite a bit).  But he is not too old.  Let me know when he starts growing the beard solely to produce hair plugs, or his prostate will only allow him to run 200 mile races.  Then we can talk.

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Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


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Top Three Stories For NASCAR In 2012

NASCAR was filled with storylines in 2011.  They ranged from the amazing to the downright disappointing.  We had a contender suspended for a race, a well-respected broadcaster ranted at with profanities, and the first championship decided by a tie-breaker rule.  And those examples were just in the last few races!

What crazy things will happen in 2012?  We just don’t know.  But what we do know is that there are several questions from last year that will be answered in 2012, and will be cause for conversation.

1.  Has NASCAR finally solved the mystery of the “Two Car Tango?”  For quite a

while now NASCAR has been trying to find a way to break up or severely limit the two car drafting style that has plagued the restrictor plate races.  Some readers will hate the fact that I wrote plagued, but tough. 

Two car drafting has taken the individual racer out of the equation.  No longer is a driver in full control of where he takes his car or whom he drafts with.  There are team orders, manufacturer orders, and only the last 20 laps are meaningful.

NASCAR has further limited the temperature allowed in the cooling system, a direction that rendered no benefit last season.  They have also allowed a larger restrictor plate which can give more throttle response and perhaps lessen the need to link up.  The most likely change to truly impact the driver’s ability, or rather their desire, to tandem draft is that they are taking away rear downforce by changing the angle and size of the rear spoiler.  This will make the two car draft less comfortable for the lead driver.

Will it work?  Ask me in February.

2.  Can the best loser in NASCAR become the next winner in NASCAR?  After losing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship to Tony Stewart by a tie-breaker rule, Carl Edwards said he would be a good sport about losing, and he has done a great job.  However, good manners aside, I wouldn’t anticipate Edwards holding back as the Chase approaches.

Carl Edwards has finished in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, and although he may be glad to have been so competitive and have won so many races, any onlooker can tell he is hungry for one particular trophy.  There have been other great drivers to have gone without winning a championship, Mark Martin for example, but one has to believe that Carl will win one soon.

3.  Who made the best offseason changes?  One of the most common questions heading into any season is who made the most of their changes in preparation for the coming year.  Last year the big question was the Hendrick Motorsports shakeup.  This year there were changes from Champion Tony Stewart changing crew chiefs to Kurt Busch joining a 3^rd tier team (at best) after losing his job at Penske.  There were changes at MWR, RPM, EGR, and every other team from different crew chiefs or different drivers to additions of directors of competition or changes to crew.  Who made the best changes?  That we may not know until well into the 2012 schedule

What do you think will be the biggest question mark for the 2012 season?

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The Best New Driver/Crew Chief Pairing In 2012?

The 2011 Silly Season has been quite a busy one.  Usually there are drivers sliding from this team to that so fast you can hardly keep up.  While that has not quite been the case this year, there have been a multitude of crew chief changes for drivers that struggled in 2011, and in a couple cases for drivers that did not struggle.

In 2011 there were several new driver/crew chief combinations, most of them were in the Hendrick Motorsports garage.  It was definitely interesting to watch which new combination would win and how each of them would deal with problems that arose.  Although the Gordon/Gustafson combination would top most lists, the Earnhardt/Letarte duo definitely did better than most assumed they would.

In 2012 there will be no less than 11 new driver/crew chief combinations starting in February at the Daytona 500.  There will be at least 3 or 4 of these new combos that will visit victory lane, and no doubt 3 or 4 of them will make the Chase.  Will there be any surprises?  Will any of the new teams gel quickly and become the next Jimmie and Chad or Jeff and Ray?  Well that may be a long shot, but below I have listed the best three of these new combinations along with how they will impress in 2012.

1.  Hamlin / Grubb-  The #11 FedEx Toyota will begin the year with a driver that faded last year after his dominant run in 2010, and a crew chief with something to prove after being let go a couple weeks after winning the Sprint Cup Championship.  Will Hamlin/Grubb win a race?  Without a doubt.  Grubb has never had a season without a win, and Hamlin has never had a full season without a win.  Make the Chase?  Of course.  Hamlin has never finished outside the top 12 in a full season and Grubb has never finished outside the top 15.  Given Hamlin's ability to put a great Chase run together as he did in 2010, combined with Grubb's recent success at Chase race domination, be prepared for a strong charge in the final races of 2012 by Denny Hamlin.

2.  Harvick / Wilson- After the 2011 season, Shane Wilson has been moved over from the #33, formerly driven by Clint Bowyer.  Although Harvick and last year's crew chief, Todd Berrier, had some great success, including becoming the "Closer" and having a great run in the 2010 Chase to challenge for the Sprint Cup Championship, RCR has elected to move Wilson to the #29 for 2012.  Wilson will be working with many of the same people, so all that will change from last year will be the driver, and moving from Bowyer to Harvick is a step up.  Shane Wilson only has 2 Sprint Cup wins, but he does have 14 Nationwide wins, 13 of which were driven by, you guessed it, Kevin Harvick.  With the same crew, same garage, and having already won together, it won't take long for these two to develop the chemistry needed to compete.  Oh, and 7 of those Nationwide wins the two had were at Chase tracks.

3.  Stewart / Addington-  After almost every championship win, the winning team changes a little.  Very few championship teams have been able to field the exact same team in February.  However, that particular type of change has not happened to a championship team since owner Billy Hagan replaced Dale Inman, arguably the greatest crew chief ever, with Steve Hmiel for driver Terry Labonte after winning the 1984 championship.  I could not find the details about how Inman left the position open, someone older than I will have to answer that one.  What I do know is that Labonte did not repeat his success of 1984.  Don't get me wrong, Hmiel was no slouch, but changing the crew chief is no small change.  With that said, Stewart has proven he has plenty of drive left, and after coming up short with Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch, Addington is sure to have something to prove.  Addington has a knack for pulling a rabbit out of his hat and Stewart has more determination that most drivers, so look for these two to get at least a couple of wins and a Chase appearance.

With all of these changes, and more changes to come, February will be a busy time in both North Carolina and Daytona.  Will any of the new duos become the next super team?  Who knows.  Either way 2012 is coming soon, and all of these teams are definitely working to make this season a wild one.

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Drivers, Crew Chiefs And Job Applications, Oh My!!

Although there is generally a drop-off in the amount of NASCAR drama to comment on once the season has ended, the 2011-2012 off-season is proving to provide a wealth of material.  Yes, the off-season is known as the end of "silly season" for a reason, but usually the drivers that are looking to secure a ride in November and December are coming from mid to lower tier teams. 

This year the available driver pool is packed with 2 drivers from top tier teams, Kurt Busch from Penske and David Ragan from Roush Fenway, and 2 drivers from mid tier teams, Brian Vickers from Red Bull and David Reutimann from Michael Waltrip Racing.  While each of these drivers carry there own issues, they all have won at the highest level of stock car racing and one of them is a former Sprint Cup Champion.

Not only has their been a heavy load of drivers coming on the "market" this fall, there are also a couple of winning crew chiefs available.  After winning 5 of 10 Chase races and the 2011 Spring Cup Championship, Darian Grubb apparently was not quite achieving the level of success Tony Stewart was looking for, so he is now looking for a job.  Also, after an up and down year, mostly down, Mike Ford, crew chief for Denny Hamlin, is now out of his seat at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Although a couple of the above have just exited their positions, two of them are rumored to be close to nailing down their next gig.  David Ragan been supposedly putting on a full court press to land in the seat of the #22 Penske Racing Dodge vacated by Kurt Busch.  Ragan had been under contract with Roush Fenway Racing through 2012, even though his #6 Ford was without sponsorship next season and was unlikely to run a full schedule.  Ragan has now been released from his contract by RFR, but nothing concrete has been commented on by Penske Racing.

Darian Grubb, defending crew chief champion, has been said to be the leading candidate for the crew chief slot for the #11 FedEx Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.  Although he has less career wins than former crew chief Mike Ford, Grubb is coming off of his championship run with Tony Stewart, so if he and Hamlin can get up to speed quickly, they could be contenders come Chase time in 2012.

One unanswered question as of yet is, with three winning drivers left available, will any top tiered teams or mid tier teams add a car to their stable?  It is not altogether likely that Vickers, Reutimann, or even Busch in his current state, could land a sponsor big enough to start a new car with a top team like JGR, RFR, Stewart Haas or RCR, but Vickers and especially Busch could definitely land a sponsor large enough for a car with Richard Petty Racing who had flirted with adding a car earlier in the year when all of the Danica craze was going on.  Either way, there will be some new looking cars on the track come January at the Daytona test prior to speedweeks.

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Where Will Busch Go?

With all of the season ending craziness coming to an end, and after some time to hear from sponsors, Kurt Busch and Roger Penske decided to part ways.  Kurt Busch will not drive a Penske Dodge next year, leaving the #22 Penzoil Dodge open for David Ragan or another driver looking for a ride.

But just where will Busch go?

Its not as if we didn't expect to be asking that question this off-season, except most of you probably expected it would be Kyle Busch looking for a job.  However, after Kurt's tirade at the season ending race at Homestead, he will be looking for his third Sprint Cup ride. 

Busch entered the Sprint Cup Series for 7 races in 2000 in the #97 Roush Ford.  After winning a Sprint Cup Championship in 2004, Busch's relationships at Roush Fenway Racing became strained.  He then exited after 2005 to drive for Roger Penske, taking over the driving responsibilities for the blue #2 from retiring driver, Rusty Wallace.

After 10 wins and many ups and downs, the aggravation felt by Busch finally came to a head in a tirade focust at Dr. Jerry Punch, TV racing commentator/analyst, simply for having to wait for the live feed for his interview.

Now that he is without a ride, Busch may find it difficult to find a job with a top tier team.  All of the seats at Hendrick are currently filled.  Although there is a seat open at Roush Fenway Racing, they are without a sponsor, and due to old issues that move would be highly unlikely.  RCR has an open seat, but it is only open for part of the year, with Childress running his grandson, Austin Dillon, for a small schedule.  That leaves JGR, SHR, and EGR. 

Joe Gibbs has his hands full with the refitting of his three teams that did not have a good 2011, so they would be unlikely to add another possible headache.  Stewart Haas is has a full time slot and a part time slot, but without a solid sponsor would likely shy away from starting a fourth team while they are preparing to run a limited schedule with Danica Patrick in 2012.  And EGR, coming off one of their worst seasons as an organization, would have trouble getting another large sponsor without some recent success.

Start his own team or buy into a small organization?  Race into obscurity with a "go or go home" team?  I have no idea on this one.  I can definitely guarantee one thing is certain: Kurt Busch could really use a Miller Lite about now.

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NASCAR's Christmas List

As I am writing this post, millions of people are either getting their list ready for the most hectic day of shopping for the Christmas season, or sleeping in a tent on a sidewalk outside their favorite retailer.  Each year people ready their buying lists to take care of family and friends to make the Holidays the best time of the year.  But what would be on a list for NASCAR?

Well, here is the top 5 list of what I believe NASCAR needs to pick up at the stores this offseason to make 2012 a more "Jolly" occasion.

5.  Some New Lanscaping-  Probably the most embarrasing thing that happened this season for the sport was the ontrack revenge and later suspension of Kyle Busch.  The driver of the Interstate Batteries/M&M's Toyota sat out a race, finished last in the Chase, and became the driver of the M&M free #18.  Many people were actually thinking that Kyle Busch could have even lost his job, which he may if we don't see some "new" Busch's next year.

"Shrub" was not the only Busch to have problems in 2011.  Older brother, and driver of the #22 Penske Dodge, Kurt Busch had radio tirades throughout the season and even had to appologize for a profanity packed rant at commentator Dr. Jerry Punch for having to wait for the live feed for an interview.  All in all, NASCAR does have history of, and needs a fair amount of coarse personalities to keep the sport edgy, but embarrasment does nobody any good, including NASCAR.

4.  A Big Screen TV-  2011 was a great year for competition and closeness in the points standings.  It was not, however, a great year for viewership.  Yes, the ratings were up for most of the races, but there were plenty of fans in the stands that were apparently dressed up like empty seats.  For the first time in years there were large offerings of available seats for the August Bristol race.  That never happens!  Many of the tracks have figured out that they need to offer some low price/package deals to both help people be able to afford to visit the track and to draw them to some lower series races.

3.  A DVR-  Could we get a replay please?!  The tightness of competition, plentiful storylines, and crazy on-track action in 2011 was amazing.  Could NASCAR forsee that they would have the tightest championship ever when they came out with their new points system in January?  Of course not!  Are they pleased at how it came out?  Please!!  Brian France is in his office right now coming up with a fine for someone who may complain about the point system in the offseason.

2.  A Car Splitter-  Litterally...  Something to split cars...  Two cars actually.  After completing their aero test at Daytona last week and coming up with some promising aero packages for next year's plate tracks, NASCAR needs something to work and break the two car tandems apart.  Do some people like the Two Car Tango?  Yes.  But I fully believe they are limited to the two or three that only like it because they think it hurts Dale Earnhardt Jr.  Just Kidding!

1.  Some Bumper Sticker-  Or better yet, how about they get a few full car wraps!  NASCAR has lost sponsorship money each of the last few seasons.  Of course this is understandable given the national and global economic settings, but NASCAR must keep sponsorship interest in order to keep competing for market share with the NFL and other sports markets.

Now I, of course, have a few NASCAR items on my own wish list, but those will come with another post.  Happy Thanksgiving and may you be blessed with either patience or wisdom on Black Friday...

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Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Backed Into A Corner

With only 8 races left until the Chase cut off, Dale Earnhardt Jr. finds himself backed into a corner once again. In the past 4 races he has watched his name slide from 3rd in the points to 8th, only 21 points inside the top 10, and his has gone from contending for wins, to not cracking the top 10.

Of course, being bitten by the bad luck bug has definitely not helped. Through the first 15 races Earnhardt had finished on the lead lap in all but two, however, in the last three races he has matched that same amount and wrecked to the finish in Daytona. A blown engine, caught up in a wreck, and a blown tire in three races. If luck is a lady, she’s been rather spiteful to the 88 lately.

Now I’m not saying that he was running well in those three races. He hates Infineon, hates tandem racing, and had never raced at Kentucky, and all three showed. Although he had a strong car at Daytona, he did not dominate there or even challenge for the top 10 at the other two.

Had his races not ended the same way, however, you would be looking at about 40 more points of a cushion on 11th place in the points. That would probably have put him in the “practically in” category, which is where I believe Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth are. By “practically in” I am referring to the top 10. If you look at the wild card, you would probably include Jeff Gordon, who has two wins, since all of the others behind him only have one. Either way, I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would like to have his place in the Chase solidified, and soon.

The prognosis of him being “in” sooner, rather than later, is not great. At the 8 remaining tracks, Junior has 6 wins, but all of those wins are at the last 4 before the Chase. The first 4, Loudon, Indianapolis, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, are challenges for him for sure. At both Indy and the Glen he has an average finish of 22nd, and at Loudon and Pocono he has been hot and cold. The little encouragement he has for the coming 4 races is that 3 of the 4 are similar tracks in that they have flatter corners. That is encouragement due to the fact that he finished 6th at the first Pocono race this year and 4th in his last visit to Loudon.

Earnhardt must come out of the corner swinging, though, as the only one of the 4 drivers immediately below him in points has a worse average finish at Loudon. That, even, is no consolation, since Clint Bowyers 16th place average there does not paint as complete a picture as his two wins.

I would speculate that Junior’s chances for a win at Bristol, Atlanta, or Richmond are high only if he does either great or poorly in the next 4 races. If he is still just inside the top 10, it may be too much of a temptation to be slightly less aggressive. However, if he is locked or almost locked into the Chase, or just outside the top 10, he will either be able to be aggressive or will have to be out of necessity.

Follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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What Separates Hamlin And Johnson At Pocono?

When NASCAR goes to certain tracks, there are always particular drivers that stand out above the crowd. At restrictor plate tracks, people point to Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. At road courses, fans think of Gordon, Stewart, and maybe Montoya. At most of the other tracks, people tend to think of Jimmie Johnson.

This weekend, Pocono will bring 500 miles of engine heating, tire failing, (and possibly fan snoring). Over the past few years, nobody has been stronger than Denny Hamlin. With 4 wins, Hamlin has proven he knows his way around the three-cornered beast. Hamlin boasts an amazing average finish of 8.2 with 7 top 5’s in 10 starts. Whether too hurt or too new, he is always too fast at the Pennsylvania track.

No doubt, Hamlin would love to break back into the win column at Pocono and further his rise into the top 10 in points, but there is one driver who may stand in his way. Of course, this driver stands in many people’s way when it comes to the entrance of victory lane. Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of 9.6 and has 2 wins himself at Pocono. And although Johnson is a favorite at almost any track, there may be one advantage Johnson has that Hamlin does not. He might be shiftier.

This week at Pocono, NASCAR is changing their transmission rules package and many drivers are saying that they will be shifting again on the triangle shaped track. In 2005, NASCAR changed their transmission rules to stop the shifting, and the next year was the first for Mr. Hamlin. The last year that shifting was allowed, Jimmie Johnson swept the two Pocono races.

Now, don’t get me wrong! I am sure Hamlin is quite capable of figuring out when and where to shift this weekend. But if there is anything a driver doesn’t want interrupted, its his rhythm. Of course, he could indeed go out this weekend and be even harder to catch than in previous races there.

Some others to watch out for this weekend would have to be the #22 of Kurt Busch, who won here in ’05 and ’07, the #14 of Tony Stewart, who won in ’03 and ’09, and #99, Carl Edwards who won in ’05 and ’08. The almost winner of the past two races in 2011, Dale Earnhardt Jr, has an average finish here of 17.9. However, prior to last week’s second place finish, his average finish at Kansas was 19.1. Also, his average finish during the shifting days at Pocono was 14th.

All in all, it should be a good race this weekend. With the return of shifting, there will likely be some engine failures at a track that is already known for stressing the engine builders out. That is, I think, the main reason why Hamlin will not win this weekend. He probably won’t blow an engine, although JGR has had their problems this year. He may, however, back off of it late in the race if some others blow theirs.

Be sure to follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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New Driver in the Blue Deuce

After Homestead there will be a new driver in the blue #2 Dodge.  Brad Keselowski will swap rides with Kurt Busch and take over the flagship car of the Penske stable.  I am sure there are many reasons for this change, such as sponsors wanting new faces and a need to shake some things up at Penske to possibly help achieve much needed success.  But I am sure one of the main reasons for this move is personality!

When Busch moved to the #2 from the #97 Ford, he was regarded as a somewhat hardnosed driver.  He had been having regular front bumber repair on the #97 due to beating it on the rear bumpers of other drivers such as Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Spencer.  Since his move to the #2, Busch has mellowed a bit.  Marriage, along with discipline from NASCAR for causing trouble, have, along with age, made a change in his personality.

Hopefully Keseslowski will be allowed to show his personality behind the wheel of the #2, which I believe will be more like that of Rusty Wallace.  I also think that Penske may find Keselowski is the best chance he currently has to obtain what he wants which is to take the #2 to a Cup title.  It may be a couple of years away, but if the pieces come together, it may just happen.

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