Who Will Get The Wild Cards?

With only 6 races remaining until the cutoff for the Chase after Richmond, the race for the two coveted wildcard spots is tightening up.  Although anything could happen between now and the finish under the lights at Richmond, the field is pretty well down to 5 drivers: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon.  Paul Menard and Joey Logano are close to Gordon in points totals, but neither of them have are currently headed in the right direction, so a 6 race swing in their favor is not likely.  Ambrose, always a possible winner at Watkins Glen, would need more than 1 win to make the spot from so far back, which is probably not going to happen either.

The 10th position in the points is currently occupied by Clint Bowyer, a solid 55 points ahead of 11th, Kyle Busch.  If anyone is capable of putting together a string of good finishes, let alone wins, to get into the top 10, Kyle Busch is that person.  However, lately Busch has been having trouble putting together 500 miles without blowing an engine, so making up an average of 9.2 points per race on Bowyer would be a tough order.

So who out of the 5 wild card contenders will gain a Chase entry?  Let’s look at the last 6 races: Pocono (this week), Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond.  Out of the 5 contenders, only 3 have wins: Busch (1), Kahne (2), and Newman (1).  I personally believe that 2 wins will get you in this year, a thought for which time is dwindling to disprove.  That means that Kahne will be in this year's Chase.  It also means that now we have 4 drivers contending for 1 spot.

Of the four I would definitely say that Busch has the best shot.  He has more points than the others (not by much) and only Gordon has more wins at the coming 6 tracks.  In fact, Busch is more of a lock than anyone to compete for the win at Richmond: his average finish there is 4.7.  That is in 15 visits, during which he only has 2 finishes OUTSIDE THE TOP 5.  That is ridiculous, so much so that I had to look at the stats twice. 

Although Carl Edwards is just behind Busch in the points, I don't give him much of a chance to make this year's Chase.  Edwards has no wins this year, has only 2 top 5 finishes, and has just received a Crew Chief change.  Yes, Edwards does have the best finishing average at these 6 tracks (out of these 4 drivers), but right now points won't help unless you have wins, and Edwards is not even knocking on the door.

Ryan Newman is has a chance at the final spot for two reasons: he has one win and he is always a threat to win at Richmond and Pocono, as he is good on flat tracks.  Newman’s chances, however, hinge on him winning and Busch not winning.  Newman is unlikely to pass Busch in points because, although he is only 15 back, his average finish at the 6 tracks lags behind Busch's.

Lastly we have Jeff Gordon.  Gordon is in need of a hot streak, something he has not seen in a few years.  Gordon is 24 points behind Busch, but without a win he is helpless.  Gordon needs at least one win to make the Chase this year, and at the remaining tracks he has 23 previous wins.  Although many would think of him as a threat at Watkins Glen, Gordon has 5 wins each at Pocono, Atlanta, and Bristol.  If Gordon could catch some luck and momentum at the same time, he is in, but that is a huge if.

I should add that Kasey Kahne should be relieved that his 2 wins is likely to put him over the threshold, as his average finish at the next 6 venues is a dismal 18.3, with Michigan being the only one with an average finish under 17th.

All in all, I would say that the race for the Chase should be coming down to a good show.  Between drivers trying to win their way in to the Chase and those looking for more bonus points, a few fenders are likely in for some damage, or at least we can hope...

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Does Gordon Have Time To Make Chase?

With only 3 top 10 finishes in the first 13 races of the 2012 season, Jeff Gordon is having, by far, the worst start to a season that he has had in his career.  Never before has he had so few top tens thus far into the season, including his rookie year.  He has had loose wheels, flat tires, started wrecks and got sucked into them.  I am sure the 24 team has gone through every spare good luck charm in their hauler by now.

Until 2012, Gordon has made the Chase in every year except 2005, the second year of the Chase, which he finished 11th in the points standings.  If he were to miss the Chase this year it would be only the third time in his twenty year career. 

The grinding thing for the 24 team has to be that they have had good runs, challenging for and leading races.  In fact, he has led almost as many laps in 2012 as he did in that whole 2005 season when he won 4 races on the path to that 11th place season finish.  Everything that could have gone wrong, has.  For the Dupont team of Gordon and Gustafson, Mr. Murphy has proven his law almost every weekend.

The scary fact for Gordon, at this point, is that he is 94 points out of 10th place.  With 13 races left before the Chase field is set, that would mean a gain of 7.4 points on 10th to be in the top 10 by Richmond.  Gordon is great, don't get me wrong, but it is hightly unlikely, especially since he currently has more monkeys on his back than live in the San Diego Zoo.

Gordon's best bet is to make it into the top 15 and get at least two wins, possibly three.  Currently he would have to beat the win total of Brad Keselowski (2), Kasey Kahne (1), and Ryan Newman (1).  I believe at least one of these three will be in the top 10 by Richmond, and since Keselowski is currently closest, 2 wins may just be enough to make the 2 extra Chase slots.

One thing is for certain: if those pesky monkeys ever fall off the rear deck lid of the 24, watch out Sprint Cup Series!  Gordon is running as well as he has since his great '07 season and should he make one of the two extra Chase slots due to wins, the rest of the Chase field should be on notice, he could well be the 'Tony Stewart' of 2012. (Recall that Stewart had 0 wins heading into the 2011 Chase and felt like they did not deserve to make the Chase, yet won 5 races and won the Championship.)

All of the above said, this week we are going to Pocono, a track known for killing engines, gas mileage grief, and surprise rain winners.  With so many pitfalls around the triangle track, is this the week for Gordon to mount a comeback?

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Is Earnhardt Jr. Really “Done”

Over the past few races, with the rapid decline of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the Sprint Cup Standings, many people have speculated whether the 88 team would make the Chase. Some NASCAR pundits have even implied or even outright stated that Junior’s Chase hopes are already finished.

For the most part, people are speculating that his downward points trajectory will not change enough to keep him in the top 10 in points and, without a win in the coming 7 races, he will miss the Chase cutoff and the wild card. The number one reason they may be right is not Earnhardt Jr.’s poor finishes, but the average finishes the drivers around him in the standings have at the coming tracks. Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and even Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman all have great finishes at some of the next few tracks. Therefore, not only does Earnhardt have to stop the bleeding, but he also has to return to competitiveness.

The number one reason detractors may be wrong is that most of the slide in points has been due to bad luck, rather than bad racing. After 3 straight top 7 finishes, Earnhardt Jr. finished a disappointing 21st at Michigan, but his 41st the following weekend at Sonoma was due to being caught up in someone else’s wreck. The next week at Daytona, Junior was again caught in someone else’s wreck, relegating him to a 19th place finish. A third week in a row, Earnhardt Jr. had damage to his car; this time at Kentucky he blew a tire. And finally, in the last race, at Loudon, he ran poorly until saving a decent 15th place finish.

No, Junior did not stand much chance at winning in these races, except possibly at Daytona, but if he had finished 20th at Sonoma, 12th at Daytona, and 20th at Kentucky, each a likely finish without his mishaps, he would be 38 points higher. That would put him 1 point behind 6th place Matt Kenseth and give him a comfortable lead on 11th place Tony Stewart.

However, he is not 1 point behind Kenseth, and Tony Stewart is lurking. So let’s take a look at the next few races.

Although the next three tracks are probable pitfalls for Earnhardt Jr., there is a possibility that some of his detractors may have jumped a couple races early. Although Earnhardt Jr. has a poor average finish at Indianapolis and Pocono, 22nd and 17th respectively, he has had some success at those tracks.

If you overlook last year’s 27th at Indy, Junior’s past several races there haven’t been so bad. In ’07 he had an engine failure after having led 33 laps as one of the two favorites for the win. In ’08 he finished 6th, and in ’09 he started the race 3rd yet had another engine failure. Also, his crew chief, Steve Letarte, has been preparing cars for Jeff Gordon at Indy the past few years, which is definitely an advantage for 2011. Letarte has an average finish of 10th the last 4 visits at Indy with Gordon.

At Pocono, Junior is not necessarily considered a force to reckon with, but he has 7 finishes between 2nd and 6th, including a 6th place finish in his last visit there in June. Also, with his performance at some flat tracks this year, along with how close he has come on fuel mileage races, Junior should be considered a possible factor at Pocono in August.

At any rate, the races at Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen will tell whether Earnhardt Jr. has the drive to make the Chase this year. But I wouldn’t throw dirt in his face just yet.


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The 2011 Chase: Who’s Down, Who’s Out?

With the “Race To The Chase” well underway, much speculation has been given to who will be in the Chase, and who will be relegated to “also ran” for the rest of the season. So, since we have a week without a race and no driver spats to talk about, let’s take a look at who is in, who is struggling, and who is out.

The “In’s” are definitely not a mathematical lock at this point, but one should not bet against them. The top 7 drivers, Edwards, Johnson, Ku. Busch, Harvick, Ky. Busch, Kenseth and Gordon, are well out of reach as long as no major catastrophe occurs. Gordon is only a point ahead of 8th place Newman, but given the fact that he has an average finish of 12.4 at the 7 remaining tracks prior to the Chase cut-off, he should easily end up in the top 10.

The “Out’s” are those from 16th and below. I know there are those of you who say that the wild card rule contradicts this prediction, but hear me out. Without a huge points gain or another win by Keselowski (almost a 50 point deficit behind 15th place), or multiple wins by others in the next 7 races, most likely the two wild cards are currently within the top 15. There should be little doubt that a win will come from Stewart, Biffle, Kahne or Bowyer in the next 7 races.

Along with Keselowski, the other drivers just outside the top 15 all seem to be fizzling out. Mark Martin is having trouble getting inside the top 10, Ambrose and Almendinger, although better than 2010, are consistently inconsistent, and Martin Truex Jr. has yet to post a top 5 finish.

Of those who are left, positions 8 through 15, two are definitely not “Down.” Without a string of bad luck, Hamlin and Stewart have some of their best tracks ahead and should be inside the top 10 by the checkered flag at Richmond. They have overall average finishes for the next 7 tracks of 13th and 12th respectively ranking 3rd and 1st among the 7th-15th place drivers. Keep in mind that one or two DNF’s could throw all of this out the window.

Out of the other 6 drivers, Newman, Earnhardt Jr., Bowyer, Ragan, Kahne, and Biffle, the last 3 are definitely in need of a win to make the Chase. Outside some major DNF’s, these drivers will not be making an appearance in the top 10, so entrance into the Chase is definitely dependant on getting one of the two wild card spots. Ragan is the only one of these that currently has a win and, as long as he stays in the top 15 in points, should get a wild card.

That leaves Newman, Earnhardt, and Bowyer to fight for the remaining spot in the top 10. The stress is definitely lessened on Newman now that he has a win and could get a wild card spot, but don’t plan on seeing him lay down. Earnhardt Jr.’s recent slide has prompted several commentators to say he is finished. They point to the next 3 races, Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, as his Waterloo and say he will not recover in time to make the top 10. If they are correct, the only other way for Junior to make the Chase is if he is 11th in points and Ragan is the only driver from 11th-20th with a win.

If each of the 7th-15th place drivers finished their average finish at the next 7 tracks, here is what the points will look like after Richmond:

7th- Gordon
8th- Stewart
9th- Hamlin
10th- Newman
11th- Earnhardt Jr.
12th- Bowyer
13th- Biffle
14th- Kahne
15th- Ragan

Should be a tight race for the last 4 spots so bring on Indy!

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Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Backed Into A Corner

With only 8 races left until the Chase cut off, Dale Earnhardt Jr. finds himself backed into a corner once again. In the past 4 races he has watched his name slide from 3rd in the points to 8th, only 21 points inside the top 10, and his has gone from contending for wins, to not cracking the top 10.

Of course, being bitten by the bad luck bug has definitely not helped. Through the first 15 races Earnhardt had finished on the lead lap in all but two, however, in the last three races he has matched that same amount and wrecked to the finish in Daytona. A blown engine, caught up in a wreck, and a blown tire in three races. If luck is a lady, she’s been rather spiteful to the 88 lately.

Now I’m not saying that he was running well in those three races. He hates Infineon, hates tandem racing, and had never raced at Kentucky, and all three showed. Although he had a strong car at Daytona, he did not dominate there or even challenge for the top 10 at the other two.

Had his races not ended the same way, however, you would be looking at about 40 more points of a cushion on 11th place in the points. That would probably have put him in the “practically in” category, which is where I believe Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth are. By “practically in” I am referring to the top 10. If you look at the wild card, you would probably include Jeff Gordon, who has two wins, since all of the others behind him only have one. Either way, I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would like to have his place in the Chase solidified, and soon.

The prognosis of him being “in” sooner, rather than later, is not great. At the 8 remaining tracks, Junior has 6 wins, but all of those wins are at the last 4 before the Chase. The first 4, Loudon, Indianapolis, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, are challenges for him for sure. At both Indy and the Glen he has an average finish of 22nd, and at Loudon and Pocono he has been hot and cold. The little encouragement he has for the coming 4 races is that 3 of the 4 are similar tracks in that they have flatter corners. That is encouragement due to the fact that he finished 6th at the first Pocono race this year and 4th in his last visit to Loudon.

Earnhardt must come out of the corner swinging, though, as the only one of the 4 drivers immediately below him in points has a worse average finish at Loudon. That, even, is no consolation, since Clint Bowyers 16th place average there does not paint as complete a picture as his two wins.

I would speculate that Junior’s chances for a win at Bristol, Atlanta, or Richmond are high only if he does either great or poorly in the next 4 races. If he is still just inside the top 10, it may be too much of a temptation to be slightly less aggressive. However, if he is locked or almost locked into the Chase, or just outside the top 10, he will either be able to be aggressive or will have to be out of necessity.

Follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Racing Into The All-Star Race New Territory For Earnhardt Jr.

In a few days, two weeks of racing will begin at the Lowe’s Motor Speedway in Charlotte, North Carolina. NASCAR’s Cup teams will be returning to racing at their home track (home track for most, at least) for both the Sprint All-Star Race and the Coca-Cola 600 the following weekend.

The All-Star race at Charlotte has been an event marked by wild passes, hard wrecks, and aggressive racing for 26 years and this Saturday will be held once again. It began in 1985 as “The Winston”, named for the series sponsor at the time, and quickly became a hit with NASCAR fans and drivers alike. The short length and aggressive racing being much like the feature races at local tracks, the all-star event was soon a staple in the NASCAR Cup Series season.

The storied race has had many winners, beginning with Darrell Waltrip in 1985. There was much history for the initial race, which was not preceded that year by a qualifying race for those who did not automatically qualify, like there will be this week. The pole sitter for the Winston was Terry Labonte and the race was called by Mike Joy, and the color commentator was Neil Bonnett. The race this week will be called by Mike Joy and one of the color commentators will be Darrell Waltrip. Familiar territory for both, I am sure.

One thing that will not be familiar, since 2000 at least, is that Dale Earnhardt Jr. will not be automatically in the All-Star Race. In 2000, his rookie year, he posted his first Sprint Cup Series win at Texas Motor Speedway, five races before the All-Star event, and then won again at Richmond, one race before. He then became the first rookie, and one of two total (Ryan Newman 2002), to win the event. Now, since he has not won in over 103 races and his automatic bid due to winning the All Star race has expired, Earnhardt Jr. will have to gain entry by either winning the Sprint Showdown, or, very likely, receiving enough fan votes.

One positive for having to race in the showdown before the main event is that Earnhardt and Letarte will have extra laps to dial the car in before racing with the best of the series. That has been a benefit for some drivers in past races, but rarely translates into wins.

An obvious negative is that he has much more possibility of wrecking out before reaching the end of the All-Star race. Due to the nature of the events with no championship points applied, there are always big wrecks and a good bit of beating and banging.

Either way, whether Junior reaches the end of the Saturday night thriller or not, fans can bank on the race being eventful and fun to watch as it always is!


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Harvick-Busch Adding Spice To A Lively 2011

The 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Season has already been a lively one. There have been angry Colombians (Juan Pablo Montoya), steaming engineers (Newman), cursing on the "In Car" radio (almost all drivers), and an appearance by the next Donald Trump (Truex firing his pit crew). Heck, even Jimmie Johnson has been pissy a few times with Chad Knaus on the radio. Shocking, I know!!

Now, to top it off, the two most volatile personalities in the garage, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, have decided to yet again fill the "NASCAR Bad Boy" role. The only problem is that they apparently decided to do so at the same time.

The two, as any fan knows, got into each other multiple times at Darlington, only to end up making a show on pit lane. The show even included a shove through the window by Harvick only to see Busch push his car into the pit wall. Maybe Busch was in "Bumpdrafter" mode??

The excellent TV has not stopped to this point. This week, the two met again via NASCAR hauler and had separate press conferences to answer about the closed door meetings and on-track horse play. Perhaps NASCAR wanted to capitalize on all of the hubbub. Either way, the two ended up throwing some more verbal "punches" through the press conferences, proving that the dislike is not likely to end any time soon.

As for more on-track issues, NASCAR will likely be as tough on these two as they were on JPM and Newman last week considering they are on a 4 week probation. Whether the 29 and 18 find each other at Dover or not, there will probably be plenty of carnage to go around as the "Monster Mile" is notorious for chewing drivers up and spitting them out in front of coming traffic.

Will there be more tempers this Sunday? I wouldn't bet against it.

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Which Will Make The Chase, Jeff Gordon Or Denny Hamlin?

With nine Sprint Cup races in the book for 2011, the picture of which teams will compete for the 2011 Chase is quickly coming into focus. With exception of the two road courses, teams have faces each type of track that they will race on, and have had enough time to establish a foundation for the rest of the season.

There have been a few people who have had surprising success this year, some lasting and some starting to fade. The RPM duo of Almendinger and Ambrose had some initial success this year, running strong in the first few races of the year. However, now that the new has worn off, the two have had some struggles and are currently 11th and 23rd in the points respectively. They are, of course, much higher than last year, but with poor performances in the past few weeks, expect them to slide a bit more until their new teams and the RPM leadership can get some organization done that they had little time for since the team reformed late last fall.

Other surprises, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman, are having a good deal of success. Both have had little success in the past five years. Newman, in nine races, has one less top 5 finish than he accumulated in all of 2010. If he continues at this pace he will have his best season since 2003, when he finished 6th in the points. He also had 8 wins that year. Earnhardt is again driving with confidence. If Steve Letarte can keep the 88 crew “between the ditches,” victory lane will come, at least once or twice, and a Chase berth is likely.

Two drivers noticeably absent from the top ten in points are Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Both of these drivers are considered near the best in their sport, yet they are having trouble getting their footing in 2011. If you had to choose, though, which driver do you think will make the Chase?

Hamlin is currently 17th in the points, 97 points behind the leader. If Hamlin cannot gain ground in the next 10 races, he will have to rely on wins to gain a Chase berth. Of course Hamlin can move up: he is only 37 points behind Tony Stewart in 10th. Hamlin has not, however, had very many good finishes. In nine races, he only has 2 top 10’s and 1 top 5, and suspicion is now rising that communication between he and crew chief Mike Ford is sub par at best.

Gordon, 16th in points, is also well out of his comfort zone. He is accustomed to competing, if not dominating, the points standings and has better vision through his rear view mirror than his windshield. However, early successes with new crew chief Alan Gustafson give reason for optimism. Gordon has only 3 top tens, but the up side is that they were all top 5’s and one was a win. Gordon can obviously compete. If the 24 crew can avoid more wrecks and can make a few adjustments, Gordon could be tough to beat late in the season.

I believe that, if only one of the two make the Chase, it will be Jeff Gordon. Although I would never bet against Hamlin, one simply has to look at the most important relationship in the garage: the driver – crew chief relationship. Gordon’s relationship with Gustafson is just beginning and, considering their personalities and drive will likely be successful. Hamlin’s relationship with Ford, however, is declining due to aggravation and distrust from last season’s end. If Joe Gibbs and crew cannot mend this due, the 11 team is in for a long season indeed.


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Preview Of 2011's Top 5 Sprint Cup Teams: #5- Stewart-Haas Racing

The biggest problem that Stewart-Haas Racing had in 2010 was inconsistency.  Both Stewart and Newman had strings of good finishes but would then have 2 or 3 DNF's or poor finishes due to mechanical or handling problems.

For Stewart, the customary late-season charge never came.  That along with a poor Spring made for a so-so 2010 for the 14 team.  Stewart almost mounted a charge in the fall with a win and a 4th place finish in California and Kansas, but followed those finishes with five finishes outside the top 10.  In the nine races he in which he led laps, six of them ended with Stewart not on the lead lap.  In 2011 if Stewart can avoid the wrecks and change a few finishes, he could be once again in contention for the championship.  Who else would be a better competitor for Jimmie Johnson in the Fall?  If he can return to his hard-charging late-year racing, he can definitely give JJ a run.

Newman, however, may need a few handling repairs to break through.  With 6 finishes of 30th or worse, and 15 finishes between 15th and 29th, Newman will need both consistency and a little better late-race handling.  Too many times in 2010 the 39 team either could not compete at all or tapered off late in the race.  In the eight races in which Newman led laps he either finished in the top 12 or he wrecked.

No matter how they finished in 2010, there are not too many other drivers that are as hard-driving and strong willed as Stewart and Newman.  Look for Stewart-Haas Racing to build on a season in which both drivers had wins.  If a few breaks go their way, look for both of them in the top 10 come chase time with Stewart poised to challenge for a third championship.

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