Drivers To Watch In The Daytona 500

With all of NASCAR's rule changes enveloped in a new car design, this year's Daytona 500 is full of uknowns.  The cars will all be bunched up again into large packs, but the ability of cars to drive up and side draft alone may be greater than it has in years.  With a change in maneuverability and the abandoning of 2 car drafts, it will be each driver for himself (or herself, of course) for more than the last few hundred yards.

This new car design and how it affects the cars in the draft at 195 mph has changed how most drivers view the race.  Some, such as Carl Edwards, say the racing is much more fun.  But others may be unsure about their chances and their strategies entering NASCAR's premier event because they have either never raced this style of restrictor plate racing or they had minimal experience with it prior to the 2 car tandem racing that developed after the COT was put in place.

The wild and aggressive style of racing from this car definitely lends itself to drivers like Kevin Harvick who has won the Sprint Unlimited and his Gatorade Duel.  Also benefited by this style would be drivers like Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Greg Biffle, all who like aggressive racing and are very good at handling cars that are moving around.

Some of the drivers who had plenty of experience and success at the old plate racing style, such as Gordon, Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip, may do well due to their experience at sensing the momentum of various lines and working their way to the front of a pack.  However, Waltrip has had much less seat time in recent years due to his semi-retirement, Earnhardt Jr. has not been pleased with his car's ability it pull up to cars in front of him, and Gordon has not won at a Daytona since 2005 and has an average finish of 20.8 since then.

There are a few new drivers who may do well this weekend.  All of the media's attention is on rookie of the year candidate Danica Patrick for getting the pole for this weeks race.  She does have a very fast car, but more attention should definitely be paid to drivers such as Austin Dillon who finished 3rd in his Gatorade Duel behind Kyle Busch and Kasey Kahne.  In that race he had an impressive driver rating of 111 due to his ability to not only finish near the front, but to have maintained that position most of the race.  Also, Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne was quite strong in his Gatorade Duel, leading most of the race prior to wrecking.  If the 21 crew has a strong backup, Bayne may be seen near the front at the end of Sunday's race.

On particular driver who be a bit of a sentimental favorite for many this week is Mark Martin.  Martin has said he does not plan to come back next year for Michael Waltrip, and although he may still drive a limited schedule, the likelihood he will be in a top tier, or near top tier, ride at Daytona in the future is slim to none.  After coming close so many times, it would be great to see him finally win on NASCAR's largest stage.

Whoever wins Sunday, you can guarantee their will be plenty of passes, some extremely fast racing, and yes, some large wrecks.  As drivers are just becoming accustomed to the Gen 6 car's handling and how the drafts and "air bubbles" are being affected, as we have seen in the past week, there will be plenty of torn up cars going back to the garage. 

Read more »

'01 Til Now, With Dale Earnhardt...

This week marks 12 years since the 2001 Daytona 500 which ended in the tragic death of NASCAR great Dale Earnhardt.  In the wake of Earnhardt's death, NASCAR embarked on the largest safety renovation in its history, resulting in the safety of the sport in 2013.  After NASCAR celebrated the coming Daytona 500 with a remebrance of Dale Earnhardt, one must think about what might have been.

How would the sport have progressed in the past 12 years had Earnhardt not died?  Would safety measures have been made and what other differences would their be?  Lets take a look back at how the past 12 years would have been with Dale Earnhardt around.

Imagine the victory lane celebration February 18, 2001 when Michael Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Dale Earnhardt finished 1, 2, 3.  Earnhardt now has an established NASCAR Cup Series team, capable of winning and competing each week.  He just finished second in the points in 2000 and is on the upswing again in his career.  After winning a couple races in 2001 he finishes a close second to Jeff Gordon in the 2001 Cup Championship.

In the next couple of years, driver injuries and another driver death add to the recent deaths of Kenny Irwin and Adam Petty to force NASCAR into further safety measures.  Only a handful of drivers still use open-faced helmets, but all drivers use some form of head and neck restraining device.  NASCAR is also developing safety measure in the cars to absorb more force on impact.

After finishing 5th in the 2002 Cup Series Championship points, Dale Earnhardt decides to retire after the 2003 season.  Dale Jr. finished the 2002 season 3rd in points propelling him to a Championship challenge in 2003.  New talk by NASCAR about a wider, taller, safer car with identical front ends for all manufacturers is met by contention from NASCAR veterans.  NASCAR adapts the front ends to incorporate more brand identity.

In 2004 Dale Earnhardt joins Darrell Waltrip in the broadcasting booth for a few races to add commentary, but decides against a long term contract citing too much hot air in the booth coming from Waltrip as a reason to stay on pit road.  With late season coaching from his father, Dale Jr. wins the 2004 Championship, giving DEI its first Championship and the Earnhardt family its eighth. 

Over the next few years NASCAR sees many changes amongst teams.  There is an addition of a 4th DEI team, as Earnhardt has recruited Tony Stewart away from Joe Gibbs Racing, making the DEI stable every bit as strong as NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports.  Hendrick, losing hardheaded driver Kyle Busch to JGR, adds newcomer Juan Pablo Montoya from F1 in a single car partnership with Chip Ganassi and adds Mark Martin from Jack Roush's stable, outbidding startup owner Ginn Racing.

Heading into the current decade, NASCAR has now begun to eclipse the NFL in total market share, and continues to expand into new markets, despite a steep downturn in the economy.  However, fans still appreciate NASCAR's roots, such as its annual Labor Day weekend at the Southern 500 at Darlington, South Carolina.

No, that is not how things turned out, and probably light years from how it may have happened, but one could definitely see how the sport would have been different had the '01 500 ended differently.  Dale Earnhardt was a huge part of the sport's success, not always perfect, but always a part of the conversation.  No doubt NASCAR would be different, but one can only speculate in what ways.

Read more »

Get Set!: Looking At The 2012 Chase Field, 1st - 5th

As the Chase quickly approaches, many drivers are getting ready to prepare for 2013.  They will not be "in the hunt", so they are either preparing with their team for a stronger run next year, or are preparing for a new ride to start speedweeks at Daytona.

The Chase drivers, on the other hand, are preparing to put their best foot forward on the first Chase race.  Not wanting to fall behind and give up a chance at a Championship, drivers will be looking to make statements at the 1.5 mile Chicagoland Speedway.  Whether they will step out ahead or not, these 5 drivers are starting out front on their way to the Sprint Cup:

5th - Greg Biffle: In many ways, 2012 has been a season of renewal for Biffle and the 16 team.  They have led more laps this year than any season since '06.  They have remained in or close to the top 3 in points for most of the regular season.  And the 16 team has not finished the season in the top 5 since 2008 and have never had an average finish better than 11.9 (their current average for the '12 season is 9.7).

To have a chance at winning the Sprint Cup, Biffle will have to produce on his strong suits, the 1.5 mile downforce tracks and the Monster Mile of Dover.  If he can pop of a win or two, look for him to be close to the top entering Homestead, a track where he has 3 wins.  The 'Biff' has an average finish of 15.9 and 10 wins at the 10 Chase tracks.

4th - Brad Keselowski: Making his second Chase appearance in just 3 full time Sprint Cup seasons, Keselowski has definitely made his place amoung the top tier drivers.  He has 3 wins this year and is more than capable of winning a few more prior to Homestead.  Along with his ability to stay up front, the 2 team has also shown that they and their driver are willing to do whatever is needed to win, a trait that may serve them well when the points battle gets close at the end.

The downside for the 2 team is that Keselowski only has good history at a few of the Chase tracks.  Don't get me wrong, he is more than capable of winning at all of them, he just has poor average finishes at most of them.  His strong tracks are definitely Talladega and Kansas.  Keselowski's average finish at the Chase tracks is 17.1 and he has 3 wins on those tracks.

3rd - Tony Stewart: This year Stewart is entering the Chase in 3rd and not quite as unsure as he was last year when he dominated the Chase with 5 wins.  However, although Stewart has more top 5's this year than the previous two, he only has two more top 10's than top 5's.  What that means is that if Stewart has a good car and a good setup, he can compete and will finish within sight of the lead.  If he does not, he is not getting to the top 10.  Translation: Stewart could break out with multiple wins, or he could struggle with poor setups.

Nobody, though, should count the 14 out of the Championship.  2011 should serve as plenty reminder that Stewart may be down but is never 'out'.  Stewart, after all, is known for being at mid-late season driver.  He does not, however, have Darian Grubb who helped him win the Cup last year.  Stewart has an average finish of 12.5 and 21 wins on the Chase tracks.

2nd - Jimmie Johnson: Another Chase and another attempt at a Championship for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew.  Johnson has shown this year, again, that he wins the big races, and once he is out front he is hard to catch.  Johnson has had three wins so far, and is unlikely to go winless in the Chase.  Johnson has NEVER gone winless in the final 10 races of the year in his Sprint Cup career.

Winning or not, Johnson cannot be counted out of the Chase picture.  He has plenty of ability to win, let alone his proven history with Crew Chief Knaus at the Chase tracks from which to draw information.  Johnson has an average finish of 10th and 31 wins at the Chase tracks.

1st - Denny Hamlin: After not being able to back up his 2010 performance last year, Hamlin has been able to slowly build this year to the point that he is the Chase frontrunner.  Hamlin has had an up and down 2012, but with a few wins and more consistently running at or near the front over the summer, Hamlin is hitting his stride at just the right time.

One of Hamlin's biggest strengths this year is the addition of last years Cup winning Crew Chief, Darian Grubb.  Grubb may well be out for some 'how do you like me now' and Hamlin would be more than happy to help him out.  What Hamlin will be sure to look out for is a momentum trip up like he had near the end of the 2010 Chase.  Hamlin has an average finish of 13.4 and 10 wins at the Chase tracks.

Read more »

NASCAR Goes (Off) Road Racing...

Road courses are like the Busch brothers to most NASCAR fans: either you love them or hate them.  They are much more technical, much more prone to fuel mileage strategy, and tend to favor a handful of drivers that have more experience road racing.  However, most NASCAR fans cannot discount the fact that when the cars are side by side, the opportunity for fender-banging, cut tires, and more 'gritty' racing is high.

Sunday afternoon was no different.  While much of the first half of the race was fairly inconsequential, with few lead changes and no real drama, the end of the race featured popular drivers spinning, side by side racing, and dirt flying in the air as Keselowski and Ambrose commenced an all-or-nothing dash to the checkered flag.

Both of the drivers offered to add to the paint job of the other's racecar on the final lap, yet neither wrecked the other, a result pointed out by Keselowski in his post race interview.  After the two of them made their way past Kyle Busch who was losing control after running through an oil slick laid down by the #47 of Bobby Labonte, they each ran off the road in the interloop.  After Keselowski regained the rear bumper of Ambrose, he gave a slight bump which allowed him to move to the left side of the #9  heading into the last corner, a right hander.  Ambrose then ran Keselowski up toward the wall on the exit of the corner, without making contact, giving himself the momentum to capture the checkered flag.

During the final few laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. spun along with Jeff Gordon, ending the hopes of top 10 finishes for both.  Busch (Kyle), who spun after contact with the #2, finished 7th.  Also, the race also saw problems for Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and more.

The race at Watkins Glen International generally has more action, mostly due to the sharp right-handed turn at the end of the front stretch, along with the tricky interloop on the back-stretch.  Both of these spots allow aggressive drivers to outbreak other drivers and get side by side, hoping to make it through the coming turn.

Whether you enjoy road racing and want more of these races or cannot stand them and prefer ovals any time, Sunday's race ended with a bang.

Read more »

Excited, Kind, And Snide: Reactions To Junior's Michigan Win

It is always funny to me to sit back and watch the reactions after each race.  Depending on who wins and how the win occurs you will have any number of reactions from drivers, TV personalities, fans and writers.  Whether its Jimmie Johnson winning after dominating all day or David Reutimann snagging a lucky win, there are always people who will congratulate and those that will attempt to downplay the event.

This Sunday, of course, is no different.  As NASCAR's most liked driver was using up the ample amount of rubber left on his tires on the front stretch, there were all sorts of reactions taking place.  Announcers and NASCAR officials were glad, if not relieved, that the story line had ended in a way that will benefit the sport.  Drivers, for the most part, were congratulatory of a competitor who has been working hard for a win.  And fans were going crazy in the stands, infield, and at home.

Yet, at the same time, some were not so happy.  One particular driver felt the need to remind everyone that the next day was still a Monday and that God Himself had not spoken.  Tony Stewart, probably tired from racing for a few hours, was obviously short (pun intended) with reporters after the race.  His sentiment was that just because everyone wanted a win for Dale Jr. did not mean that he and the other drivers had to make it easy for him.  Good point, Tony, and one that I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would agree with.  To my knowledge, he has never asked Mr. Stewart to pull over and allow a pass.  Not only that, aside from getting around Dale Jr. on a restart during Sunday's race, Stewart did not have much opportunity to see the front of Dale Jr.'s car.  Perhaps he just enjoyed the paint scheme on the rear bumper.

Stewart was not the only person who was less than impressed with the win.  Many fans, and writers, hate the attention that Earnhardt Jr. gets, how TV analysts always mention him, and how devoted his fans are.  They see him as overrated and only in the sport because of his late father, 7 time Champ, Dale Earnhardt.  Are they right?  Not if you look at facts and numbers, but they are taking a purely emotional view, as are those that believe Dale Jr. can do no wrong.

A particular writer, Mr. Norris McDonald, a blogger for Wheels.ca whose posts appear on the Toronto Star website, is particularly unimpressed with Dale Earnhardt Jr.  He as much as said in his latest NASCAR piece, "Was Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Win A Fluke?", that a monkey could have driven better than Junior in the past four years and that perhaps the only way to explain Earnhardt's win on Sunday is to call it a fluke.  Was it a fluke: an accident, a break, a stroke of luck or a coincidence?  Twelve top 10's and six top 5 finishes in 15 races...  Make your own decision.

Either way, Earnhardt Jr. will be taking one less question this week.

Read more »

Darrell Wallace Jr: Logano, Round 2?

Four years ago, Joe Gibbs Racing began to introduce a new star to the sport of stock car racing. "Sliced Bread" was to be the next Richard Petty, was the greatest young driver ever seen by some, and was expected to make NASCAR his playground.

Over the next few seasons, Joey Logano has gained mutual respect from other NASCAR drivers, but has failed to wow fans and has won just one race. He has, however, dominated at times in the Nationwide Series where he and his JGR teammates have been the cream of the crop over the last three years.

Perhaps Logano was brought all the way up to the Cup Series before he was ready. JGR was looking for a replacement for Tony Stewart at the time who was leaving, and was, no doubt, looking for a bright, young face that could keep some sponsors. That they got.

With his 12 wins in the Nationwide Series it's easy to think that Logano would have won a Nationwide Championship by now and could have eased his way into the upper level. Perhaps his confidence would have been kept in tact and he would have had an easier time acclimating to the Sprint Cup Series. Who knows?

With Wallace Jr., however there is yet another piece of the NASCAR pie on the line. Wallace Jr. is the best new hope of NASCAR's Drive For Diversity program. Wallace Jr., an African American, has had great success in the K&N Series, and will be expected to continue that progression in the Nationwide Series for JGR. Hopefully the Gibbs organization has learned some lessons from Logano.

One benefit Wallace Jr. will have is that, although JGR may be looking to add a 4th car at some point to its Cup stable, there is no superstar seat to fill to make them do so in a hurried fashion as they did with Logano. JGR has the ability to allow Wallace Jr. The time to mature in the Nationwide Series and become accustomed to the press, fans, and everything else "NASCAR."

Read more »

Can Dale Jr. Seal The Deal At Martinsville?

Everyone remember's how last spring's Martinsville race ended: the "closer", Kevin Harvick, rooted past Dale Earnhardt Jr. to get his first Martinsville win.  Although many in Junior Nation were glad to have a second place finish to build on for the rest of the 2011 season, there is still a nagging memory of that finish that makes Earnhardt fans ready for the next Martinsville race.

Earnhardt Jr. comes into this weeks race at the half mile "paperclip" third in the Sprint Cup standings, and has an average finish of 8.8 as he is laying a foundation to again make the Chase.  The focus this week, however, will likely be to do better than just "have a good points day."  Earnhardt will be coming up on 4 years without a win when the series reaches Michigan, so the 88 team is eager to get that monkey off their back, and Martinsville is a better place to do that than most.

As most commentators and fanatics approach the coming week they tend to look at which drivers are hot right now, and which drivers have a history of winning at a track to decide who they think will do well and possibly win.  They also will look at who is "due" at a track or in general as well.  In the area of who is "hot", there is no debate that Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are at the top of the field.  Stewart has opened the season with 2 wins in five races and has won 5 of the last 9 races, including the last race at this track.  Biffle has seamingly turned his career around and has 4 top tens in the first 5 races this year along with the current points lead.

The obvious choices for those who have a history of winning at Martinsville would have to be Jeff Gordon (7 wins), Jimmie Johnson (6 wins), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins).  These drivers have been the class of the field for the past 8 years or so and are likely to be at the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Finally, who is "due" to get a win at Martinsville?  By how I began this post, I am sure you know where I am headed, but humor me.  I'm sure you don't know exactly how "due" Earnhardt Jr. is.  First, he has an average finish of 13.0.  That does not mean he has dominated, led laps, or even had a decent car.  It does mean, however, that he manages to be in or near the top ten when the race comes to a close.  His average of 13.0 is best of all non Martinsville winners, including better than Kenseth (16.5), Kyle Busch (16.4), Newman (14.4), and Edwards (16.9).

Junior has also finished in the top 5 at Martinsville more than any other non winner there.  He has three times as many top 5's there as all the Roush Fenway Racing drivers combined (Kenseth [2], Biffle [0], and Edwards [1]). 

Lastly, Earnhardt Jr. has been able to lead at Martinsville.  In fact, he has let more laps at Martinsville than he has led at any other track.  His 865 laps led there is almost as many as all other non (at Martinsville) winning active drivers added together (just under 1,000).

One other thing is certain for this week: although Biffle will probably still leave Martinsville with either the points lead or 2nd in the points, he will definitely take a hit.  Biffle has an average finish of 22.4 and has never finished in the top 5 there.  If he can post a top 5 this weekend, Biffle will be a strong contender for the full year.

Read more »

Great Restarts, For Vegas And Biffle

The 2012 Kobalt Tools 400 in Las Vegas this weekend had some great racing.  Although there was not as much side by side racing in Vegas as there may have been in the past, the competitive restarts were enough to make up for it.  Seeing the Sprint Cup drivers slinging it three wide at the start finish line and having cars rubbing bumpers and fenders is the best way to see drivers easing into their 2012 season.

No, there were no jet driers exploding in flames, and the only fuel mileage issue was when Brad Keselowski had fuel pump issues after stretching his fuel.  I, for one, am glad not to see jet driers.  Although as a firefighter I did enjoy watching the flames at Daytona, whilst screaming "Put foam on it!!" while the fire crew extinguished the flames slowly, I think we have all seen enough rain delayed races to hold us until at least Darlington.  They did move it back to Labor Day weekend right??  No?  Well they should!!

This weekends race saw two drivers coming back from a rough 2012 start.  Tony Stewart, the winner of this weeks race, had a horrible week last week with a engineering issue relegating him to a 22nd place finish at Phoenix, and started the season with two finishes outside the top 15.  Although many people felt Stewart would cool off a bit, at least in the near term, with a crew chief change (he replaced Darian Grubb with Steve Addington in the offseason), two bad finishes to start the season after winning 3 of the final 4 races of 2011 would have been though a stretch.  Stewart dominated the end of Sunday's race at Las Vegas, however, so he and Addington may be warming up quicker than most thought.

Jimmie Johnson, after wrecking on the second lap of the Daytona 500 and finishing 42nd, found out a week later that he would probably be without his crew chief, Chad Knaus, for 6 races and down 25 more points to the field of Sprint Cup teams vying for this years Chase.  He did, however, get a great 4th place finish at Phoenix, but during final practice at Las Vegas, Johnson hit the wall and began warming up his backup car to start at the rear on Sunday.  Before half way through the 400 mile race, the 48 had made its way to the front and at the end of the race was just shy of Stewarts pace to the finish line. 

Probably the best restart going on in NASCAR at the moment is the restart occurring in the #16 garage.  Although Biffle is always a possible front runner on any given weekend, his end to the 2011 season was weak to say the least.  His 2011 season in general was out of character for the Vancouver, WA driver, as he posted only 3 top 5 finishes for the year and no wins.  During the offseason, no team has turned around as well as the RFR #16 bunch.  Although they have not posted a win in the first three races, they have already tied their top 5 mark from 2012 with 3, scoring a 3rd place finish in each race.  Biffle has also not started outside the top 10, which is great for a driver who is known for driving harder when he can see the leader.

Whatever the 3M RFR team is doing, it is working!

Read more »

Prediction Time In NASCAR Country

Every year NASCAR fans have a quick change of mood.  It happens shortly after the final lap of the Homestead race.  They may be walking from the track to find their car or they may be getting up from watching the race to eat a Sunday supper.  Either way, NASCAR fans quickly move their thoughts from the great racing they have just seen to the long, cold offseason that is squarely in front of them.

Sure they can watch some NFL, get ready for NCAA bowl season, or try to remember for whom they have to buy Christmas presents.  Not good enough.  At least not for me, was it for  you?

So here we are.  We have made it through just over half of the offseason.  The cars have now been back to the track and our appetites have been stirred by the speeds over 200 mph and the pack racing, flying around Daytona International Speedway.  Its time to ponder over who will win this year, both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Cup Championship.

First, this years Daytona 500 will definitely be a wild one.  With NASCAR doing everything in their power to bring back pack racing, their will be huge packs running up until the final laps.  Remember, these drivers have not raced in a large pack in the past several plate races.  Be prepared to see some carnage.  However, most drivers predict that the final laps of this years race will still be decided by tandem racing, linked up to sprint across the finish line.

With that said, a wise prediction to win this years 500 would be a driver that has done well with tandem racing and is also good at pack racing.  To further decide, you have to assume that without having raced in packs in a bit, the give and take leading up to the final laps will be mostly take.  Therefore, I would think that the winner would need to be someone who likes to stay up front in the pack, not lay back. 

The first few names that come to mind that fit this description are Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman.  Now, I should include that it is never wise to write off a Hendrick or Roush driver, but given the situation, I think these guys are well suited for the 2012 Daytona 500.  Which would I choose?  I think due to RCR's plate program and Harvick's ability on plate tracks he is one to watch, but I'll call it for Denny Hamlin.  Hamlin has shown a great ability to hook up and quickly pull away in a two car draft, which is what will be needed with a lap or so to go.

So, with the Daytona 500 decided (tongue in cheek) lets turn our attention to the Sprint Cup Championship.  I will go ahead and write off Stewart, Johnson, and of course Kurt Busch.  Sorry guys.  I cannot, however, overlook Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth.  Each of these drivers showed promise in 2011 in one way or the other.

Harvick and Edwards have competed vigorously the past few years for the Cup, both coming up short.  Edwards had 5 finished in the top 3 in the 2011 Chase.  Had he converted just one of those to a win, no tie breaker would have been needed.  Harvick, on the other hand, has been a threat to win the Championship for the past few years, but he has not won a Chase race since 2006.  Will either of these drivers win the Cup?  I don't think so, not this year.

Keselowski, after coming on strong to start the 2011 Chase, will be working with a new teammate and although he will win several races, I don't believe he will reproduce last years Chase for Roger Penske.  That judgement is less a negative one for Keselowski than one for Penske's ability to give the 2 car what it needs to win the Championship.

Although I do like Kenseth's chances heading into the new season after a strong showing in 2011, I don't believe he is likely to put together the 10 races he will need for the Chase.  In the 2011 Chase it seemed that coming to the end he had more trouble as his team tried harder to propel him higher in the standings.

Yes, I am picking Jeff Gordon to match 5 time with 5 Sprint Cup Championships.  After his first year with crew chief Alan Gustafson resulting in 3 wins, all of which at intermediate sized tracks (two flat), be prepared to see Gordon rediscover his strength at short tracks and plate tracks.  I don't anticipate another 10 win season for Gordon, but his working relationship with Gustafson could well be his final driver/crew chief pairing, and it will be a good one.

So there are my two stabs in the dark while waiting on the 2012 season to begin.  What are your predictions?


Be sure to like my Bumpdrafter page on Facebook and follow the_Bumpdrafter on Twitter!

Read more »

The Best New Driver/Crew Chief Pairing In 2012?

The 2011 Silly Season has been quite a busy one.  Usually there are drivers sliding from this team to that so fast you can hardly keep up.  While that has not quite been the case this year, there have been a multitude of crew chief changes for drivers that struggled in 2011, and in a couple cases for drivers that did not struggle.

In 2011 there were several new driver/crew chief combinations, most of them were in the Hendrick Motorsports garage.  It was definitely interesting to watch which new combination would win and how each of them would deal with problems that arose.  Although the Gordon/Gustafson combination would top most lists, the Earnhardt/Letarte duo definitely did better than most assumed they would.

In 2012 there will be no less than 11 new driver/crew chief combinations starting in February at the Daytona 500.  There will be at least 3 or 4 of these new combos that will visit victory lane, and no doubt 3 or 4 of them will make the Chase.  Will there be any surprises?  Will any of the new teams gel quickly and become the next Jimmie and Chad or Jeff and Ray?  Well that may be a long shot, but below I have listed the best three of these new combinations along with how they will impress in 2012.

1.  Hamlin / Grubb-  The #11 FedEx Toyota will begin the year with a driver that faded last year after his dominant run in 2010, and a crew chief with something to prove after being let go a couple weeks after winning the Sprint Cup Championship.  Will Hamlin/Grubb win a race?  Without a doubt.  Grubb has never had a season without a win, and Hamlin has never had a full season without a win.  Make the Chase?  Of course.  Hamlin has never finished outside the top 12 in a full season and Grubb has never finished outside the top 15.  Given Hamlin's ability to put a great Chase run together as he did in 2010, combined with Grubb's recent success at Chase race domination, be prepared for a strong charge in the final races of 2012 by Denny Hamlin.

2.  Harvick / Wilson- After the 2011 season, Shane Wilson has been moved over from the #33, formerly driven by Clint Bowyer.  Although Harvick and last year's crew chief, Todd Berrier, had some great success, including becoming the "Closer" and having a great run in the 2010 Chase to challenge for the Sprint Cup Championship, RCR has elected to move Wilson to the #29 for 2012.  Wilson will be working with many of the same people, so all that will change from last year will be the driver, and moving from Bowyer to Harvick is a step up.  Shane Wilson only has 2 Sprint Cup wins, but he does have 14 Nationwide wins, 13 of which were driven by, you guessed it, Kevin Harvick.  With the same crew, same garage, and having already won together, it won't take long for these two to develop the chemistry needed to compete.  Oh, and 7 of those Nationwide wins the two had were at Chase tracks.

3.  Stewart / Addington-  After almost every championship win, the winning team changes a little.  Very few championship teams have been able to field the exact same team in February.  However, that particular type of change has not happened to a championship team since owner Billy Hagan replaced Dale Inman, arguably the greatest crew chief ever, with Steve Hmiel for driver Terry Labonte after winning the 1984 championship.  I could not find the details about how Inman left the position open, someone older than I will have to answer that one.  What I do know is that Labonte did not repeat his success of 1984.  Don't get me wrong, Hmiel was no slouch, but changing the crew chief is no small change.  With that said, Stewart has proven he has plenty of drive left, and after coming up short with Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch, Addington is sure to have something to prove.  Addington has a knack for pulling a rabbit out of his hat and Stewart has more determination that most drivers, so look for these two to get at least a couple of wins and a Chase appearance.

With all of these changes, and more changes to come, February will be a busy time in both North Carolina and Daytona.  Will any of the new duos become the next super team?  Who knows.  Either way 2012 is coming soon, and all of these teams are definitely working to make this season a wild one.

Read more »

First Move For Stewart? A New Crew Chief.

For NASCAR, the short offseason of mid-November to mid-February contains small bursts of relaxation separated by long hours of preparation for the coming season. Often there are changes to be made to improve a team's performance for the next year; sometimes they may be in organization, and sometimes in personnel.

All of this is nothing new. It is precisely the reason the last part of the NASCAR season is called "silly season". However, it usually holds true that the more success a team has they experience less change in the offseason. Not so with 2011 Sprint Cup Champion Tony Stewart and his #14 Stewart Haas Racing team.

As was rumored over the last week of the season, Stewart's Crew Chief, Darian Grubb, will be working elsewhere in 2012. Grubb, who has 14 wins as a Crew Chief, 11 with Stewart. Was reportedly told entering the Chase that his contract would not be renewed. Then he helped Stewart win his third championship and his first as an owner.

Two sentiments come to mind. Respect and wonder. I thoroughly respect Grubb for not letting up. Many Crew Chiefs may have put it in cruise control and finished the Chase searching for employment, but not Grubb. And I wonder just what he did to make Stewart so dead-set on replacing him.

Can Stewart replace Grubb with a talented crew chief? No doubt. He is rumored to be attempting to get Greg Zipadelli and Steve Addington away from Joe Gibbs Racing, where he drove for two championships with Zippy as his crew chief.

Even if he gets those two as a director of competition / crew chief combo, the kind of consistency and team cohesion a team needs to win a championship doesn't happen overnight. Will be win? Yes. Will he repeat? I highly doubt it.

Read more »

Tony's Tiebreaker

The close of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Season comes to an end with a bang.  I for one have never been a big fan of Homestead Miami Speedway, but the 2001 season finale left nothing to be desired.  The points battle entering the race was a mere 3 points and the top two drivers in the standings finish 1-2.  To make it more amazing, the points standing actually ended tied, with a tiebreaker giving the 2011 Sprint Cup Championship to Tony Stewart based on the most wins in the season (Stewart had 5 wins and Edwards 1).

But even more amazing than how tight the season actually finished are the many stories included in how they reached the final laps of the Ford 400.  Stewart entered the Chase as an unlikely contender who had struggled throughout the summer and had no wins.  Edwards entered as the points leader who had one win and was not dominant, but highly consistent with top 5 finishes. 

Although Edwards had no wins in the Chase, in fact, he had no wins since March at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he seemed flawless with an average finish of 4.9 for the Chase races, even finishing with three straight runner-up finishes.  However, Stewart proved to much, overcoming his own Chase average finish of 6.3 with 5 wins, 3 of which came in the last 4 races, to win his 3rd NASCAR Sprint Cup Champtionship.

The last race itself was full of drama, seemingly start to finish, with Stewart having to restart 40th just a few laps in, as he sustained some early damage to his car.  He made his way to the front quickly, however, often threading the needle and even going 4 wide at times to make up the positions on his competitor, Edwards.  In the end, with all of the fuel mileage out the window, Edwards simply could not catch Stewart and became the closest second place Cup finisher in NASCAR history.

With the new points system put into place this year focused on both tightening the standings and placing more emphasis on winning, NASCAR has to feel the 2011 season has been a success.  The 3 point gap heading into Homestead is not mind blowing of when you extrapolate that that would be equal to about 10-11 points in the old system, but NASCAR has never had to rely on the tiebreaker to settle the series championship. 

Congratulations to NASCAR, Tony Stewart, and even Carl Edwards.  Anyone know how many days until the Daytona 500??

Read more »

Qualifying Key For Earnhardt Jr.

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to the Irish hills of Michigan to the Michigan International Speedway. With only three races left after this weekend until the Chase, the stakes are high and pressure is mounting on those at or near the cutoff. Last week’s race at Watkins Glen only added suspense to the Race to the Chase by moving a few people around in the points standings, so this weekend could make or break several teams.

Three weeks ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr. entered Indianapolis in 9th place in the standings, just 7 points ahead of 11th place (at that time, Tony Stewart). Few people, me included, felt he would make these three races and remain in the top 10. Not only does Junior have an abysmal average finish at both Indy and Watkins Glen, but the two drivers directly behind him, Hamlin and Stewart, have excellent records at Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen.

Most bloggers said he was finished. On-air personalities asked if the 88 team was at the point of panicking. All the while Letarte and Earnhardt said they would stay calm and plug away. And plug away they have.

No, they have not had amazing finishes or wins to finally satisfy their many fans. The 88 has not muscled its way to the front and dominated. But they have been steady. They have not panicked. They have not wavered.

Outside of some great running at Pocono, where he had an average running position of 9th, and some luck at Watkins Glen to get up front, Earnhardt has not been great the past three weeks. He did not have to be, however. He simply had to be better than his average at those tracks. With the coming four tracks being strong tracks for him historically, he just needed to weather the storm at Indy, Pocono and especially Watkins Glen.

Now, heading to Michigan, Earnhardt Jr. must return to running in the top 10. He has had good runs at Michigan in the past, and with Hendrick horsepower and Letarte’s Michigan statistics, there is no excuse for mediocrity.

One key for the 88 crew this weekend may be qualifying. In the past, Earnhardt has run well at Michigan if he has a slick, good qualifying car. In his top 10 starts there, Earnhardt has an average running position of 5th. Not to mention that this year it seems as though he has begun from mid pack almost every race. Earnhardt Jr. will not be able to dominate a race again unless he has the car, and the confidence, to push it for all its worth when qualifying.

This weekend may also be a slight shift of focus for the 88 team. With a 36 point cushion over 11th place Clint Bowyer, Letarte has chosen to bring an unraced and untested chassis to the 2 mile track in Brooklyn, Michigan. Letarte either is on the offensive to chance it for a win or is taking a page from his shop-mate, Chad Knaus, and preparing for a Chase race. It is definitely possible that the info the team gained by modeling the chassis after another chassis, or placing the chassis on the 7 post shaker that simulates the coming track made Letarte feel that it was a good choice for the weekend. However, if you were playing it save until the Chase cutoff, would you choose a car that had NEVER been to a race track?

Either way, it should be a great race to watch this weekend. With Bowyer, Stewart and others feeling the pressure for a win to get a Chase wild card slot, look for fuel and pit strategies to run wild!


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

Read more »

Coming Back To Tony Stewart’s Turf

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will travel to Watkins Glenn International for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen. The Glen is, of course, the second road course race on the Sprint Cup schedule and is also the strongest track for Tony Stewart.

Stewart, a perennial summer powerhouse, has not yet found his summer strength and currently finds himself 9th in the points, one point ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 10th, and with no wins. Stewart is also only 24 points ahead of 11th place Denny Hamlin, a position where Stewart would find himself outside of the Chase without any wins.

The question for many NASCAR fans, specifically Stewart fans, is will Stewart make The Glen his starting point for the rest of the season. If so, he could relax their fears that he could miss the Chase for the first time since 2006, and only the second time since its inception.

The two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion must feel some comfort in returning to the New York track where he has 5 wins in the last 9 races. He certainly knows what it takes to navigate the track, but the only stat that spotlights that fact more than his five wins is the fact that from 2004-2009 his average finish there was 1.34. During those six races he had 4 wins, and either won or was chasing the winner.

There is no doubt that the winner this weekend will either have a 14 on his hood or will have to beat someone with a 14 on their hood.

If Stewart were to get a win this weekend, or even a top 5 finish, he could definitely feel a bit more comfortable with his standing above 11th heading toward the Richmond Chase cutoff. His closest competitors, Earnhardt Jr., Hamlin, and Boyer have nowhere near the average finish that he has established. The strongest of these, Hamlin, has an average finish of 13th.

If Stewart and each of his chasers reached only their average finish this weekend, Stewart would leave The Glen with a 32 point lead over 11th place. If that were so, Stewart would have to finish an average of 8 places behind Earnhardt Jr. and Hamlin in Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond. Not likely.

Either way, I am certain that only one number will be on Tony Stewart’s mind on Sunday, and that is 1st. And I definitely wouldn’t pick this Sunday to be blocking the 14…but here’s hoping someone tries…


Follow JD on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

Read more »

Is Earnhardt Jr. Really “Done”

Over the past few races, with the rapid decline of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the Sprint Cup Standings, many people have speculated whether the 88 team would make the Chase. Some NASCAR pundits have even implied or even outright stated that Junior’s Chase hopes are already finished.

For the most part, people are speculating that his downward points trajectory will not change enough to keep him in the top 10 in points and, without a win in the coming 7 races, he will miss the Chase cutoff and the wild card. The number one reason they may be right is not Earnhardt Jr.’s poor finishes, but the average finishes the drivers around him in the standings have at the coming tracks. Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and even Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman all have great finishes at some of the next few tracks. Therefore, not only does Earnhardt have to stop the bleeding, but he also has to return to competitiveness.

The number one reason detractors may be wrong is that most of the slide in points has been due to bad luck, rather than bad racing. After 3 straight top 7 finishes, Earnhardt Jr. finished a disappointing 21st at Michigan, but his 41st the following weekend at Sonoma was due to being caught up in someone else’s wreck. The next week at Daytona, Junior was again caught in someone else’s wreck, relegating him to a 19th place finish. A third week in a row, Earnhardt Jr. had damage to his car; this time at Kentucky he blew a tire. And finally, in the last race, at Loudon, he ran poorly until saving a decent 15th place finish.

No, Junior did not stand much chance at winning in these races, except possibly at Daytona, but if he had finished 20th at Sonoma, 12th at Daytona, and 20th at Kentucky, each a likely finish without his mishaps, he would be 38 points higher. That would put him 1 point behind 6th place Matt Kenseth and give him a comfortable lead on 11th place Tony Stewart.

However, he is not 1 point behind Kenseth, and Tony Stewart is lurking. So let’s take a look at the next few races.

Although the next three tracks are probable pitfalls for Earnhardt Jr., there is a possibility that some of his detractors may have jumped a couple races early. Although Earnhardt Jr. has a poor average finish at Indianapolis and Pocono, 22nd and 17th respectively, he has had some success at those tracks.

If you overlook last year’s 27th at Indy, Junior’s past several races there haven’t been so bad. In ’07 he had an engine failure after having led 33 laps as one of the two favorites for the win. In ’08 he finished 6th, and in ’09 he started the race 3rd yet had another engine failure. Also, his crew chief, Steve Letarte, has been preparing cars for Jeff Gordon at Indy the past few years, which is definitely an advantage for 2011. Letarte has an average finish of 10th the last 4 visits at Indy with Gordon.

At Pocono, Junior is not necessarily considered a force to reckon with, but he has 7 finishes between 2nd and 6th, including a 6th place finish in his last visit there in June. Also, with his performance at some flat tracks this year, along with how close he has come on fuel mileage races, Junior should be considered a possible factor at Pocono in August.

At any rate, the races at Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen will tell whether Earnhardt Jr. has the drive to make the Chase this year. But I wouldn’t throw dirt in his face just yet.


Follow @the_Bumpdrafter on Twitter!

Read more »

The 2011 Chase: Who’s Down, Who’s Out?

With the “Race To The Chase” well underway, much speculation has been given to who will be in the Chase, and who will be relegated to “also ran” for the rest of the season. So, since we have a week without a race and no driver spats to talk about, let’s take a look at who is in, who is struggling, and who is out.

The “In’s” are definitely not a mathematical lock at this point, but one should not bet against them. The top 7 drivers, Edwards, Johnson, Ku. Busch, Harvick, Ky. Busch, Kenseth and Gordon, are well out of reach as long as no major catastrophe occurs. Gordon is only a point ahead of 8th place Newman, but given the fact that he has an average finish of 12.4 at the 7 remaining tracks prior to the Chase cut-off, he should easily end up in the top 10.

The “Out’s” are those from 16th and below. I know there are those of you who say that the wild card rule contradicts this prediction, but hear me out. Without a huge points gain or another win by Keselowski (almost a 50 point deficit behind 15th place), or multiple wins by others in the next 7 races, most likely the two wild cards are currently within the top 15. There should be little doubt that a win will come from Stewart, Biffle, Kahne or Bowyer in the next 7 races.

Along with Keselowski, the other drivers just outside the top 15 all seem to be fizzling out. Mark Martin is having trouble getting inside the top 10, Ambrose and Almendinger, although better than 2010, are consistently inconsistent, and Martin Truex Jr. has yet to post a top 5 finish.

Of those who are left, positions 8 through 15, two are definitely not “Down.” Without a string of bad luck, Hamlin and Stewart have some of their best tracks ahead and should be inside the top 10 by the checkered flag at Richmond. They have overall average finishes for the next 7 tracks of 13th and 12th respectively ranking 3rd and 1st among the 7th-15th place drivers. Keep in mind that one or two DNF’s could throw all of this out the window.

Out of the other 6 drivers, Newman, Earnhardt Jr., Bowyer, Ragan, Kahne, and Biffle, the last 3 are definitely in need of a win to make the Chase. Outside some major DNF’s, these drivers will not be making an appearance in the top 10, so entrance into the Chase is definitely dependant on getting one of the two wild card spots. Ragan is the only one of these that currently has a win and, as long as he stays in the top 15 in points, should get a wild card.

That leaves Newman, Earnhardt, and Bowyer to fight for the remaining spot in the top 10. The stress is definitely lessened on Newman now that he has a win and could get a wild card spot, but don’t plan on seeing him lay down. Earnhardt Jr.’s recent slide has prompted several commentators to say he is finished. They point to the next 3 races, Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, as his Waterloo and say he will not recover in time to make the top 10. If they are correct, the only other way for Junior to make the Chase is if he is 11th in points and Ragan is the only driver from 11th-20th with a win.

If each of the 7th-15th place drivers finished their average finish at the next 7 tracks, here is what the points will look like after Richmond:

7th- Gordon
8th- Stewart
9th- Hamlin
10th- Newman
11th- Earnhardt Jr.
12th- Bowyer
13th- Biffle
14th- Kahne
15th- Ragan

Should be a tight race for the last 4 spots so bring on Indy!

Read more »

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Backed Into A Corner

With only 8 races left until the Chase cut off, Dale Earnhardt Jr. finds himself backed into a corner once again. In the past 4 races he has watched his name slide from 3rd in the points to 8th, only 21 points inside the top 10, and his has gone from contending for wins, to not cracking the top 10.

Of course, being bitten by the bad luck bug has definitely not helped. Through the first 15 races Earnhardt had finished on the lead lap in all but two, however, in the last three races he has matched that same amount and wrecked to the finish in Daytona. A blown engine, caught up in a wreck, and a blown tire in three races. If luck is a lady, she’s been rather spiteful to the 88 lately.

Now I’m not saying that he was running well in those three races. He hates Infineon, hates tandem racing, and had never raced at Kentucky, and all three showed. Although he had a strong car at Daytona, he did not dominate there or even challenge for the top 10 at the other two.

Had his races not ended the same way, however, you would be looking at about 40 more points of a cushion on 11th place in the points. That would probably have put him in the “practically in” category, which is where I believe Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth are. By “practically in” I am referring to the top 10. If you look at the wild card, you would probably include Jeff Gordon, who has two wins, since all of the others behind him only have one. Either way, I am sure Earnhardt Jr. would like to have his place in the Chase solidified, and soon.

The prognosis of him being “in” sooner, rather than later, is not great. At the 8 remaining tracks, Junior has 6 wins, but all of those wins are at the last 4 before the Chase. The first 4, Loudon, Indianapolis, Pocono, and Watkins Glen, are challenges for him for sure. At both Indy and the Glen he has an average finish of 22nd, and at Loudon and Pocono he has been hot and cold. The little encouragement he has for the coming 4 races is that 3 of the 4 are similar tracks in that they have flatter corners. That is encouragement due to the fact that he finished 6th at the first Pocono race this year and 4th in his last visit to Loudon.

Earnhardt must come out of the corner swinging, though, as the only one of the 4 drivers immediately below him in points has a worse average finish at Loudon. That, even, is no consolation, since Clint Bowyers 16th place average there does not paint as complete a picture as his two wins.

I would speculate that Junior’s chances for a win at Bristol, Atlanta, or Richmond are high only if he does either great or poorly in the next 4 races. If he is still just inside the top 10, it may be too much of a temptation to be slightly less aggressive. However, if he is locked or almost locked into the Chase, or just outside the top 10, he will either be able to be aggressive or will have to be out of necessity.

Follow me on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

Read more »

Infineon To Daytona, One Wild Card After Another

This past weekend, NASCAR visited one of its two road courses. Entering Sonoma, California, most people understood that there were those who would benefit from the road course weekend, and, conversely, those that would suffer. I am sure there aren’t many people who thought Dale Earnhardt Jr. would come though the weekend with a great finish, although 41st was a bit low. Also, most people expected Marcos Ambrose, who now sits 2 points outside the top 20, to have a good weekend.

Great. We are all psychic.

Not so fast. Infineon threw some curves at the Sprint Cup field that may not have been expected. Some people left Infineon with poor finishes that were somewhat surprising.

After several instances of contact between Tony Stewart and Brian Vickers, both were relegated to bad finishes. Although Vickers is a good road course racer and Stewart is one of the all time greats, both left California with fewer points than they probably expected.

Along with Stewart and Vickers, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Mark Martin all left with sub-par finishes. Each of these drivers have some ability on road courses, especially Montoya, Martin and Kahne, but have to pick up points somewhere else in the next 10 races in an attempt to make the Chase.

Although the restrictor plate tracks are often seen as wild card races, Infineon has now placed several teams on the offensive in preparation for the Chase. Now, with all of that “cooking”, we head to, yes, a restrictor plate track.

The summer race at Daytona is always stressful for the teams on the cusp of the Chase, as they can be wiped out in the “big one” at any time. Will the teams leave Daytona jumbled up as they were this Monday? Time will tell.

Another question heading to Daytona is what other surprises the track will hold. Each year the Coke Zero 400, customarily held on July 4th weekend, is run on a slightly different track than its sister race, the Daytona 500. The hot, humid summer nights of central Florida usually produce a track with slightly less grip than the February race.

Normally, in the past few years, this has led to a slight stringing out of the field. However, with the repaving of the track during the last off-season, one has to wonder exactly how similar will the track be to the February’s running. Will the “two car tango” work the same way it did earlier in the year, or will the cars have trouble linking up later in a run.

My last question is who is the favorite heading into this weekend? Obviously the Daytona 500 winner, Trevor Bayne, will be without his ride from February, since the winning 500 car is placed in Daytona USA for a year. Even more, no driver has won the Daytona 500 and the July 400 mile race in the same year since 1982.

Certainly Earnhardt Jr. will loom large on everyone’s radar, but who else should be watched this weekend?

Two drivers that immediately come to mind are Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. Stewart has done very well in summer Daytona races, winning 3 in the last 6. He drafts well, thrives under the lights, and apparently thinks the July 4th post race fireworks are for him. Edwards has zero wins at Daytona, but finished 2nd and 6th in the two previous restrictor plate races this year, so he apparently loves the Tango.

Calm down ladies… I meant the Two Car Tango…


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

Read more »

How Will “Team Earntarte” Handle Adversity Heading To Daytona

The Amp Energy, #88, of Dale Earnhardt Jr. came into this weekend 3rd in points with 8 top ten finishes. He had recently been knocking on the door of his first win in more than 3 years while on the cusp of his best season since coming to Hendrick Motorsports.

Of course, the short term prognosis was not so good.

The race this weekend, at Infineon Raceway, is one of the worst races for Dale Jr. He struggles on the road courses, excluding his one Nationwide win at Watkins Glen. His best finish at Sonoma prior to this week was 11th. I am sure he would have gladly taken an 11th and headed to Daytona early.

Instead, he began the race 18th and ran mostly around 20th until, on lap 38, he was on the receiving end of a disagreement between the rear bumper of Brian Vickers’ car and the front bumper of Tony Stewart’s car. Guess who won... Of course, Tony Stewart did – for a while.

I’ll tell you who lost: Dale Earnhardt Jr., not Brian Vickers. Dale Jr. went to the pits and came back out, but on lap 49 he had to go to the garage due to engine failure from overheating. He eventually finished 41st, relegating him to a second straight poor finish due to someone else and a slide to 7th from 3rd in the points.

How did the other two fair? Stewart finished 39th and Vickers 36th after the two had contact later in the race. Amazing, this time the disagreement was between the front bumper of Vickers’ car and the rear bumper of Stewart’s car. Funny how that happens.

Stewart later admitted to “dumping” Vickers in the initial contact because he felt Vickers was blocking him. Something “Smoke”, of course, never does. It’s funny because they all do it. They just tend to do it less to people who will wreck them for it, a talent these two are in the process of proving to each other.

In the meantime, Junior heads into Daytona with a familiar feeling. He had his first finish outside the top 25 and his first consecutive finishes outside the top 20 this year. The question this week will be how the new duo of Letarte and Earnhardt will handle the tough couple of races. Will they come through the tunnel at Daytona eager to race and determined to win, or will Earnhardt slide back to the complaining he did in 2010 if the car is not as strong as he hopes.

There probably are few places the 88 team would rather go when they need a rebound, however. Earnhardt Jr. and Hendrick Motorsports both have excellent records at Daytona, with wins a-plenty. Junior has two wins, himself, at Daytona, but one in particular shows how well he can drive there with a lot on his mind.

In 2001, months after losing his father on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500, he powered his way to the front to win the July race at Daytona. He came into the race facing the memory of his father’s death, but also was coming off of 3 straight finishes of 19th or worse.

No, this week is not 2001, and the number on the roof will be 88, not 8. But there are few places Dale Jr. feels at home the same way he does at Daytona.

Homecoming or not, the days leading up to Saturday will be important for Steve Letarte. He will have plenty of people looking to see how he can refocus the team along with the driver. If the past is any indication of how Letarte will do, however, get ready. After all, he has done a pretty good job of righting the ship for the 88 so far…


Follow Joseph on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

Read more »

What Separates Hamlin And Johnson At Pocono?

When NASCAR goes to certain tracks, there are always particular drivers that stand out above the crowd. At restrictor plate tracks, people point to Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. At road courses, fans think of Gordon, Stewart, and maybe Montoya. At most of the other tracks, people tend to think of Jimmie Johnson.

This weekend, Pocono will bring 500 miles of engine heating, tire failing, (and possibly fan snoring). Over the past few years, nobody has been stronger than Denny Hamlin. With 4 wins, Hamlin has proven he knows his way around the three-cornered beast. Hamlin boasts an amazing average finish of 8.2 with 7 top 5’s in 10 starts. Whether too hurt or too new, he is always too fast at the Pennsylvania track.

No doubt, Hamlin would love to break back into the win column at Pocono and further his rise into the top 10 in points, but there is one driver who may stand in his way. Of course, this driver stands in many people’s way when it comes to the entrance of victory lane. Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of 9.6 and has 2 wins himself at Pocono. And although Johnson is a favorite at almost any track, there may be one advantage Johnson has that Hamlin does not. He might be shiftier.

This week at Pocono, NASCAR is changing their transmission rules package and many drivers are saying that they will be shifting again on the triangle shaped track. In 2005, NASCAR changed their transmission rules to stop the shifting, and the next year was the first for Mr. Hamlin. The last year that shifting was allowed, Jimmie Johnson swept the two Pocono races.

Now, don’t get me wrong! I am sure Hamlin is quite capable of figuring out when and where to shift this weekend. But if there is anything a driver doesn’t want interrupted, its his rhythm. Of course, he could indeed go out this weekend and be even harder to catch than in previous races there.

Some others to watch out for this weekend would have to be the #22 of Kurt Busch, who won here in ’05 and ’07, the #14 of Tony Stewart, who won in ’03 and ’09, and #99, Carl Edwards who won in ’05 and ’08. The almost winner of the past two races in 2011, Dale Earnhardt Jr, has an average finish here of 17.9. However, prior to last week’s second place finish, his average finish at Kansas was 19.1. Also, his average finish during the shifting days at Pocono was 14th.

All in all, it should be a good race this weekend. With the return of shifting, there will likely be some engine failures at a track that is already known for stressing the engine builders out. That is, I think, the main reason why Hamlin will not win this weekend. He probably won’t blow an engine, although JGR has had their problems this year. He may, however, back off of it late in the race if some others blow theirs.

Be sure to follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

Read more »