NASCAR Goes (Off) Road Racing...

Road courses are like the Busch brothers to most NASCAR fans: either you love them or hate them.  They are much more technical, much more prone to fuel mileage strategy, and tend to favor a handful of drivers that have more experience road racing.  However, most NASCAR fans cannot discount the fact that when the cars are side by side, the opportunity for fender-banging, cut tires, and more 'gritty' racing is high.

Sunday afternoon was no different.  While much of the first half of the race was fairly inconsequential, with few lead changes and no real drama, the end of the race featured popular drivers spinning, side by side racing, and dirt flying in the air as Keselowski and Ambrose commenced an all-or-nothing dash to the checkered flag.

Both of the drivers offered to add to the paint job of the other's racecar on the final lap, yet neither wrecked the other, a result pointed out by Keselowski in his post race interview.  After the two of them made their way past Kyle Busch who was losing control after running through an oil slick laid down by the #47 of Bobby Labonte, they each ran off the road in the interloop.  After Keselowski regained the rear bumper of Ambrose, he gave a slight bump which allowed him to move to the left side of the #9  heading into the last corner, a right hander.  Ambrose then ran Keselowski up toward the wall on the exit of the corner, without making contact, giving himself the momentum to capture the checkered flag.

During the final few laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. spun along with Jeff Gordon, ending the hopes of top 10 finishes for both.  Busch (Kyle), who spun after contact with the #2, finished 7th.  Also, the race also saw problems for Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and more.

The race at Watkins Glen International generally has more action, mostly due to the sharp right-handed turn at the end of the front stretch, along with the tricky interloop on the back-stretch.  Both of these spots allow aggressive drivers to outbreak other drivers and get side by side, hoping to make it through the coming turn.

Whether you enjoy road racing and want more of these races or cannot stand them and prefer ovals any time, Sunday's race ended with a bang.

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Who Will Get The Wild Cards?

With only 6 races remaining until the cutoff for the Chase after Richmond, the race for the two coveted wildcard spots is tightening up.  Although anything could happen between now and the finish under the lights at Richmond, the field is pretty well down to 5 drivers: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon.  Paul Menard and Joey Logano are close to Gordon in points totals, but neither of them have are currently headed in the right direction, so a 6 race swing in their favor is not likely.  Ambrose, always a possible winner at Watkins Glen, would need more than 1 win to make the spot from so far back, which is probably not going to happen either.

The 10th position in the points is currently occupied by Clint Bowyer, a solid 55 points ahead of 11th, Kyle Busch.  If anyone is capable of putting together a string of good finishes, let alone wins, to get into the top 10, Kyle Busch is that person.  However, lately Busch has been having trouble putting together 500 miles without blowing an engine, so making up an average of 9.2 points per race on Bowyer would be a tough order.

So who out of the 5 wild card contenders will gain a Chase entry?  Let’s look at the last 6 races: Pocono (this week), Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond.  Out of the 5 contenders, only 3 have wins: Busch (1), Kahne (2), and Newman (1).  I personally believe that 2 wins will get you in this year, a thought for which time is dwindling to disprove.  That means that Kahne will be in this year's Chase.  It also means that now we have 4 drivers contending for 1 spot.

Of the four I would definitely say that Busch has the best shot.  He has more points than the others (not by much) and only Gordon has more wins at the coming 6 tracks.  In fact, Busch is more of a lock than anyone to compete for the win at Richmond: his average finish there is 4.7.  That is in 15 visits, during which he only has 2 finishes OUTSIDE THE TOP 5.  That is ridiculous, so much so that I had to look at the stats twice. 

Although Carl Edwards is just behind Busch in the points, I don't give him much of a chance to make this year's Chase.  Edwards has no wins this year, has only 2 top 5 finishes, and has just received a Crew Chief change.  Yes, Edwards does have the best finishing average at these 6 tracks (out of these 4 drivers), but right now points won't help unless you have wins, and Edwards is not even knocking on the door.

Ryan Newman is has a chance at the final spot for two reasons: he has one win and he is always a threat to win at Richmond and Pocono, as he is good on flat tracks.  Newman’s chances, however, hinge on him winning and Busch not winning.  Newman is unlikely to pass Busch in points because, although he is only 15 back, his average finish at the 6 tracks lags behind Busch's.

Lastly we have Jeff Gordon.  Gordon is in need of a hot streak, something he has not seen in a few years.  Gordon is 24 points behind Busch, but without a win he is helpless.  Gordon needs at least one win to make the Chase this year, and at the remaining tracks he has 23 previous wins.  Although many would think of him as a threat at Watkins Glen, Gordon has 5 wins each at Pocono, Atlanta, and Bristol.  If Gordon could catch some luck and momentum at the same time, he is in, but that is a huge if.

I should add that Kasey Kahne should be relieved that his 2 wins is likely to put him over the threshold, as his average finish at the next 6 venues is a dismal 18.3, with Michigan being the only one with an average finish under 17th.

All in all, I would say that the race for the Chase should be coming down to a good show.  Between drivers trying to win their way in to the Chase and those looking for more bonus points, a few fenders are likely in for some damage, or at least we can hope...

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Qualifying Key For Earnhardt Jr.

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to the Irish hills of Michigan to the Michigan International Speedway. With only three races left after this weekend until the Chase, the stakes are high and pressure is mounting on those at or near the cutoff. Last week’s race at Watkins Glen only added suspense to the Race to the Chase by moving a few people around in the points standings, so this weekend could make or break several teams.

Three weeks ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr. entered Indianapolis in 9th place in the standings, just 7 points ahead of 11th place (at that time, Tony Stewart). Few people, me included, felt he would make these three races and remain in the top 10. Not only does Junior have an abysmal average finish at both Indy and Watkins Glen, but the two drivers directly behind him, Hamlin and Stewart, have excellent records at Indy, Pocono, and Watkins Glen.

Most bloggers said he was finished. On-air personalities asked if the 88 team was at the point of panicking. All the while Letarte and Earnhardt said they would stay calm and plug away. And plug away they have.

No, they have not had amazing finishes or wins to finally satisfy their many fans. The 88 has not muscled its way to the front and dominated. But they have been steady. They have not panicked. They have not wavered.

Outside of some great running at Pocono, where he had an average running position of 9th, and some luck at Watkins Glen to get up front, Earnhardt has not been great the past three weeks. He did not have to be, however. He simply had to be better than his average at those tracks. With the coming four tracks being strong tracks for him historically, he just needed to weather the storm at Indy, Pocono and especially Watkins Glen.

Now, heading to Michigan, Earnhardt Jr. must return to running in the top 10. He has had good runs at Michigan in the past, and with Hendrick horsepower and Letarte’s Michigan statistics, there is no excuse for mediocrity.

One key for the 88 crew this weekend may be qualifying. In the past, Earnhardt has run well at Michigan if he has a slick, good qualifying car. In his top 10 starts there, Earnhardt has an average running position of 5th. Not to mention that this year it seems as though he has begun from mid pack almost every race. Earnhardt Jr. will not be able to dominate a race again unless he has the car, and the confidence, to push it for all its worth when qualifying.

This weekend may also be a slight shift of focus for the 88 team. With a 36 point cushion over 11th place Clint Bowyer, Letarte has chosen to bring an unraced and untested chassis to the 2 mile track in Brooklyn, Michigan. Letarte either is on the offensive to chance it for a win or is taking a page from his shop-mate, Chad Knaus, and preparing for a Chase race. It is definitely possible that the info the team gained by modeling the chassis after another chassis, or placing the chassis on the 7 post shaker that simulates the coming track made Letarte feel that it was a good choice for the weekend. However, if you were playing it save until the Chase cutoff, would you choose a car that had NEVER been to a race track?

Either way, it should be a great race to watch this weekend. With Bowyer, Stewart and others feeling the pressure for a win to get a Chase wild card slot, look for fuel and pit strategies to run wild!


Follow Joseph Davis on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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Coming Back To Tony Stewart’s Turf

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will travel to Watkins Glenn International for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen. The Glen is, of course, the second road course race on the Sprint Cup schedule and is also the strongest track for Tony Stewart.

Stewart, a perennial summer powerhouse, has not yet found his summer strength and currently finds himself 9th in the points, one point ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 10th, and with no wins. Stewart is also only 24 points ahead of 11th place Denny Hamlin, a position where Stewart would find himself outside of the Chase without any wins.

The question for many NASCAR fans, specifically Stewart fans, is will Stewart make The Glen his starting point for the rest of the season. If so, he could relax their fears that he could miss the Chase for the first time since 2006, and only the second time since its inception.

The two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion must feel some comfort in returning to the New York track where he has 5 wins in the last 9 races. He certainly knows what it takes to navigate the track, but the only stat that spotlights that fact more than his five wins is the fact that from 2004-2009 his average finish there was 1.34. During those six races he had 4 wins, and either won or was chasing the winner.

There is no doubt that the winner this weekend will either have a 14 on his hood or will have to beat someone with a 14 on their hood.

If Stewart were to get a win this weekend, or even a top 5 finish, he could definitely feel a bit more comfortable with his standing above 11th heading toward the Richmond Chase cutoff. His closest competitors, Earnhardt Jr., Hamlin, and Boyer have nowhere near the average finish that he has established. The strongest of these, Hamlin, has an average finish of 13th.

If Stewart and each of his chasers reached only their average finish this weekend, Stewart would leave The Glen with a 32 point lead over 11th place. If that were so, Stewart would have to finish an average of 8 places behind Earnhardt Jr. and Hamlin in Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond. Not likely.

Either way, I am certain that only one number will be on Tony Stewart’s mind on Sunday, and that is 1st. And I definitely wouldn’t pick this Sunday to be blocking the 14…but here’s hoping someone tries…


Follow JD on Twitter @the_Bumpdrafter

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